Archive for the ‘ValueWalk’ Category

Pershing: Despite Recent Vol shares of Fannie & Freddie “will be worth a multiple of their current price”

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pershing Square latest presentation slides

Also see 2017 letters

Ackman ’16 Letter On Fannie: “Various Scenarios” of “a … – V

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)


?Superb restaurant brand that pioneered the “fast casual” category with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture, and powerful economic model

?Founded by Chairman and CEO Steve Ells in 1993

?High quality, simple, predictable, unlevered, free-cash-flow-generative business

?Recovering from food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which caused a peak decline in average unit sales of 36%(1)

?We are currently Chipotle’s second largest shareholder with a ~10% ownership stake in the company

We believe that the Chipotle brand is still in its growth phase with significant opportunity to increase its unit count and its average unit volume. The drivers of this growth include:

“Fast Casual” category growth

?Mobile and online opportunity

?Catering opportunity

?Unit growth opportunity

?Potential for significantly more units in the U.S. than the current store base of approximately 2,200

?Compelling returns on capital for new units even at today’s lower sales levels


Despite significant share price volatility since the 2016 US elections, we believe the shares of a reformed Fannie and Freddie will be worth a multiple of their current price


Perry Case Development: In February, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court ruling against shareholder plaintiffs, concluding that the FHFA has broad discretion as conservator and refusing to invalidate the Net Worth Sweep

?We believe that the approximate one-third decline on the day of the ruling was a market overreaction:

?Various appeals options are available to the Perry plaintiffs

?Several other legal cases, including the Court of Federal Claims case under Judge Sweeney, continue to proceed favorably

FNMA and FMCC: Perry Case Developments

Irrespective of court case developments, we believe reform and restructuring of Fannie and Freddie are likely to occur:

?We do not believe there is a viable alternative that can preserve the prepayable 30-yr fixed rate mortgage at a reasonable cost

?US Treasury warrants for ~80% of the common stock of Fannie and Freddie would be worthless if the entities are eliminated


Organizational Updates in March 2017


?Over 10 years at the firm Tim has been responsible for…
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How Polish Zookeepers Defied German Occupation And Saved 500 Jewish Lives

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

One possible gift to come from the mass bloodshed of 20th century totalitarianism: perhaps the history will serve as a lesson for the future. If that is to happen, however, we need to know the history, and not avoid it, much less deny it.

To make sure we understand – that we care about what is in fact a historical abstraction for the current generation – increasingly falls to the filmmakers. This is the medium by which people today discover a past they did not experience.


By Benchill (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 or GFDL], via Wikimedia Commons

It is just too easy to look away. Few people travel to the nation’s capital with the ambition to tour the Holocaust Museum, for example. I totally get it. But out of all the exhibits in this city, this is the one that offers the most powerful lesson about human rights and dignity, and the existential threat of centralized power, as well as a warning against the politics of violence and where it leads. 

The Holocaust Museum stands there as a rebuke to a sin you did not commit, a horror you see no need to face, evidence of a blight on humanity from which you would rather avert your eyes.

Yes, everyone needs the message. At the same time, hardly anyone really wants to come face to face with the full expression of horror and evil that the Holocaust represents, and what it meant for Europe and the so many millions of victims. It is more comforting to spend time at the monuments to greatness, virtuous leaders, and war victories, however much these traffic in mythology.

Why learn about death camps that killed millions when you can use your time to admire monuments to bravery in war? The Holocaust Museum stands there as a rebuke to a sin you did not commit, a horror you see no need to face, evidence of a blight on humanity from which you would rather avert your eyes.

Denial Is a State of Mind

This is why “Holocaust Denial” is not just the designation for a gaggle of self-publishing cranks and Nazi apologists. It is a general tendency that everyone possesses to look away from a history that is
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Measuring Hard and Soft Power in a Potential War With North Korea

By FinancialSense. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The following  on North Korea  and kim jong un is a summary of our recent interview with Jacob Shapiro, which can be accessed on our site here or on iTunes here.

Recently, we’ve seen markets pull back a bit, and many are citing geopolitical tensions, and particularly the recent saber-rattling between the United States and North Korea, as likely culprits.

This time on FS Insider, Jacob Shapiro, Director of Analysis at Geopolitical Futures (GPF), joined us for an in-depth update on current geopolitical events and to provide their analysis on North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, US-China political dynamics, Europe, and more.

North Korea China War Trump kim jong un

Public_Domain_Photography / Pixabay

Rumors of Wars

Though the rhetoric from both sides has been alarming in recent weeks — culminating in North Korea’s apparently failed attempt to test a nuclear device — it’s important to keep in mind that North Korea is still controlled by a regime that will do all that it can to retain control over its populace, Shapiro noted.

“It is the world’s last remaining totalitarian state,” he said. “When you’re thinking about North Korea, the first thing you always have to keep in mind is that regime survival is going to be the most important thing.”

The issue troubling President Trump now is the threat level posed by Kim Jong Un potentially gaining possession of a deliverable nuclear weapon. As Shapiro says, this is a “red line” that the US won’t allow North Korea to cross:

While there are many reasons to think this a ruse, Shapiro noted, we can’t base foreign policy on wishful thinking.

Tensions were extremely high this past weekend during the 105th birthday celebration of Kim Il Sung, the now deceased “supreme leader” of the North Korean regime, as North Korea threatened a nuclear bombing on the US while conducting a missile test.

Ultimately, though, the missile test failed and tensions were eased somewhat. Uncertainty still persists, however.

Winners and Losers

The United States wants to avoid direct action in North Korea, Shapiro said, and is leaning on China to help resolve the issue.

The quandary President Trump faces is that he promised tough action regarding trade policy with China. Now, the geopolitical pressure of the North Korean issue presents a big problem for his tough rhetoric.

“The winner in all of this is China,

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The Rise of New French Gaullism

By Dan Steinbock. Originally published at ValueWalk.

After the first round of the French  elections , “center-right” Macron and “radical right” Le Pen are positioned for a face-off. However, the real story of the election is that Le Pen’s agenda has shifted the political landscape toward new French Gaullism.

At the eve of the French election, A gunman opened fire on the Champs-Élysées, killing a police officer and wounding others, while the Islamic State claimed responsibility. Meanwhile, US observers explain the rise of Le Pen on the basis of the French industrial decline, while German observers see France sandwiched between extremists on the Left and the Right.

What both ignore is French frustration with the failed policies of both the pro-EU conservatives and socialists – and with US efforts to shape their electoral outcomes.

Before the vote, the leader of the Front National Marine Le Pen and the centrist Emmanuel Macron garnered about 23-25% in the polls. The two were followed by the center-right François Fillon (19%), whose ratings have been penalized by a funding scandal, and the radical left Jean-Luc Mélenchon (19%), whose ratings soared leaving behind socialist Benoît Hamon (9%), who failed to unite the left.

Since no candidate garnered absolute majority in the first round, the second round is critical.  With 75% of polling stations results in, Macron was leading (24%) with Le Pen (22%) close behind. Conservative Fillon was penalized by his public scandal; socialist Hamon by President Hollande’s socialists’ failures; and the left’s Mélenchon by the absence of institutional support.

Marine Le pen victory? French Elections Macron Marine Le Pen France Gaullism Macron

Le pen victory? By Gauthier Bouchet (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Public facades versus financial interests in French election

Emmanuel Macron’s (40) stint in President Hollande’s socialist government as a business-friendly economy minister alienated most socialists while failing to win over most conservatives. As I have argued through the spring, French right, the business and conservatives can tolerate him as a unifying figure; media will portray him as a “centrist”; and Washington wants him in Elysee Palace. But in reality, he does not represent “center-right.”

Macron advocates a Clintonesque, Blairian “Third Way.” Yet, his platform movement En Marche! is a one-man’s façade, which is guided by Institut Montaigne’s corporate giants, including commercial real estate titan Unibail-Rodamco, banking behemoth BNP Paribas, and aerospace mammoth Safran. En Marche! is funded mainly by…
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Seven Cash Flow Ratios Every Value Investor Should Know

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

To get this kind of information and other exclusive articles before regular readers, get on the VIP Mailing List today.


We’ve got balance sheet ratios covered.

If you have seen some of the ratios that we cover in our stock analysis software, you will see something like this:

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stock analysis software ratios

Balance sheet and income related ratios are one of the first sets of financial ratios you learn to use when analyzing a company.

  • Current and Quick Ratio
  • Debt to Equity
  • Return on Equity
  • and so on

Very popular and common.

Before you dive into the meat of the content, if you haven’t signed up with your email for our free investment resources, do so.

I’ll immediately send you extra stock ratios notes, checklists, spreadsheets and additional downloads you can succeed with.

Click to get your ratios list now

What the Balance Sheet and Income Statement Ratios Miss

When it comes to doing a liquidity or solvency analysis, using the cash flow statement is a better indicator than using the balance sheet or income statement.

Gross margins are important, but it doesn’t tell you whether a company will survive or not.

The PE doesn’t help.

Unfortunately, the cash flow statement analysis and good ol’ cash flow ratios analysis is usually pushed down to the bottom of the to do list.

The income statement has a lot of non cash numbers like depreciation and amortization which does not affect cash flow. On paper, and at the top of the financial statement, it may look like a company is making or losing money when you account for depreciation and amortization, the actual cash in and outflow could show a different picture.

What you want to do is differentiate between …
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Schwarzman Makes ‘A Rigged Game Worse,’ Democrats Say

By International Business Times. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Schwarzman Makes ‘A Rigged Game Worse,’ Democrats Say

Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin became the first federal lawmaker to call for Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman to recuse himself from Trump administration policy that affects Schwarzman’s private equity firm. Baldwin’s criticism was echoed by the senior Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees many of the economic issues Schwarzman has been working on with…

By Financial Times [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

The post Schwarzman Makes ‘A Rigged Game Worse,’ Democrats Say appeared first on ValueWalk.

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G. Edward Griffin: Exposing The Creature From Jekyll Island Hard truths from the man who wrote the book on the Fed

By PeakProsperity. Originally published at ValueWalk.

G. Edward Griffin, the author of the seminal book on the formation of the Federal Reserve, The Creature of Jekyll Island, joins the podcast this week to add his perspective to our ongoing critical examination of the Fed and the impact its actions are having on society.

Meeting Ed and getting to spend time with him was a real honor for Chris and me. His breadth of knowledge of the central banking system as well as his engaging manner of storytelling are masterful. Plus, he’s simply a wonderfully kind person.

Ed’s decades of research and critique of the Federal Reserve, sadly, have left him with conclusions that corroborate our own. Despite its carefully-crafted image as an essential public servant, Griffin concludes it is anything but. It is a private cartel that has connived its way to tremendous advantage and power, secretly (and not-so-secretly) plundering the American people of their treasure and freedoms.

On The Fed’s True Goals

[In researching the Federal Reserve] I was looking for a very complex mechanism. And I couldn’t believe at that time that there would be deliberate deception in this system. So, I was working on the false assumption that everybody in the system was doing their best to make it work on behalf of mankind and on behalf of society. Initially, I never entertained the idea that its goal was not to benefit mankind at all.

And so, where one would say, look: the Federal Reserve system is failing to meet its goals — because it said its goals were to stabilize the economy and to preserve purchasing power, etc. — I finally came to the realization: No, those are not its goals.
If we understand what its goals really are, then it’s not failing at all. It’s succeeding amazingly well.
And most people, as I initially did, have found that an impossible assumption to entertain. They simply can’t get over it.

On Whether The Fed Is A ‘Conspiracy’

Most dictionary definitions of the word “conspiracy” seem to agree that a conspiracy occurs when:

  • two or more people come together
  • they use methods of deceit and deception to achieve a goal
  • which is unethical or illegal.

Those are the three requirements. So talk about the Fed:

Are there two or more people? Oh, yeah.

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The Step by Step Investment Process for Earning Superior Returns – Part II

By Adam Parris. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Assessing the Earnings Power Value (EPV)

Earning Power Value can be thought of as Intrinsic Value. In the 2013 Berkshire Hathaway annual report, Buffett explained what intrinsic value means.

“Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life. The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, moreover – and this would apply even to Charlie [Munger] and me – will almost inevitably come up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures.”

I mentioned in part I how important it is, not to take earnings at face value, the reported earnings can be manipulated and many companies report earnings via EBITDA. That is earnings before interest [payments], tax [payments], depreciation [on past capital expenditure spent on plant and equipment] and amortization [on the purchase of past intangible assets]. Essentially implying these items are not costs to the business, it’s their way of reporting earnings better than what actually occurred. Ego is the core reason why they participate in manipulating earnings.

The first step requires assessing the value of current earnings, properly adjusted. This requires us to make certain assumptions about the relationship with future earnings and currents earnings.

The equation for earnings power value is: EPV = Adjusted Earnings X 1/R

  • R = Your Discount Rate (think of it as your require rate of return).

Here we aren’t going to add forecasted earnings to our equation, instead, we are going to arrive at an accurate estimate of the current earnings of the company by refining the earnings data.

There is a sane approach to analysing the future cash flows that does not involve some arcane highly complex mathematical formula. It involves assessing the strength of the company’s competitive advantages, to determine if they can continue to generate growing cash flows well into the future – 20 years’ time. That’s why investing is…
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SEC Says New York Advisors Falsified AUM to Entice Investors: Enforcement

By ThinkAdvisor. Originally published at ValueWalk.

SEC Says New York Advisors Falsified AUM to Entice Investors: Enforcement

The Securities and Exchange Commission charged a New York-based investment advisor, Hyaline Capital Management, LLC, and one of its founders, Justin D. Meadlin, with disseminating false information to prospective investors and clients in order to induce them to invest money with them. The SEC’s complaint, filed in federal court in New York, alleges that beginning in…

By Unknown (Stefeyboy at en.wikisource) [Public domain], from Wikimedia Commons

The post SEC Says New York Advisors Falsified AUM to Entice Investors: Enforcement appeared first on ValueWalk.

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America’s Brazilian Future

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

When I write about poorly designed entitlement programs, I will warn about America’s Greek future. Simply stated, we will suffer the same chaos and disarray now plaguing Greece if we don’t engage in serious reform.

Ideally sooner rather than later.

But when I write about state governments, perhaps it would be more appropriate to warn about a Brazilian future. That’s because many American states have made unaffordable and unfunded promises to give lavish benefits to retired bureaucrats, a topic that I’ve addressed on numerous occasions.

iamharsha_ / Pixabay

And why does that mean a Brazilian future? Because as Greece is already suffering the inevitable consequences of a bloated welfare state, Brazil is already suffering the inevitable consequences of a pension system that treats bureaucrats as a protected and cossetted class. Here are some excerpts from a sobering report in the Wall Street Journal.

Twenty years before Michel Temer became president of Brazil, he did something millions of his compatriots do, at great cost to the country’s coffers: He retired at age 55 and started collecting a generous pension. Delaying that moment until age 65 is at the center of Mr. Temer’s proposed economic overhaul. …making that happen is seen as a make-or-break test of whether the government can get its arms around mounting economic problems like rising debt, low investment and a stubborn recession now entering its third year. New pension rules are considered central to fixing an insolvent system.

It’s easy to understand why the system is bankrupt when you read the details.

…some retirees receive pensions before age 50 and surviving spouses can receive full pensions of the deceased while still drawing their own. The generosity of Brazil’s pension system is legendary—and, economists say, troubling as the country’s fertility rate plummets and life expectancy climbs. João Mansur, a long-time state legislator in Paraná state, served as interim governor there for 39 days in 1973, a stint that qualified him to retire with a $8,000 monthly pension. …Other former public workers who retire not only reap nearly the same income they got while on the job, but also see their checks get bumped up whenever those still working

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Pershing: Despite Recent Vol shares of Fannie & Freddie "will be worth a multiple of their current price"

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pershing Square latest presentation slides

Also see 2017 letters

Ackman ’16 Letter On Fannie: “Various Scenarios” of “a … – V

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
?Superb restaurant brand that pioneered the “fast casual” category with the success of its outstanding product offering, unique culture, and powerful economic model
?Founded by Chairman and CEO Steve Ells in 1993
?High quality, simple, predictable, unlevered, free-cash-flow-generative business
?Recovering from food safety issues beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 which c...

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Zero Hedge

France Is 'Fixed'? - Credit Risk Collapses Most In History

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

French credit risk has collapsed by almost 40% this morning - the most ever - as it appears investors are satisifed that 1) Macron will win the presidency, and 2) Centrist banker/Hollande-lackey Macron will solve all of France's problems.

Notably, European VIX has plunged (back to historical norms absolutely and relative to US VIX)


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Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fear Index tanking, after hitting this resistance!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the VIX (Fear Level) over the past few years. A rally had taken place in the VIX, driving it up to falling resistance and its 50% retracement level at (1), in the chart below.


We shared the chart above last week on Twitter last week (S...

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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

Hello fellow PSW-ers, it's biodieselchris here. I've been an interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins"). I have even started one of my own!

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) coins and a basic, easy-to-follow general how-to on all things crypto. In addition, other members have expressed an interest in learning more directly i...

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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Now's a great time to be a stock picker (Business Insider)

Companies in the S&P 500 are moving independently of one another to an extent rarely seen, and that's good news for stock pickers.

The World’s Advanced Economies Should Think Twice About Curbing Migration (Bloomberg)

Analysis of United Nations data by Fitch Ratings shows halting immigration would drastically reduce the potential working population of Group-of-Seven nations, leaving aging societies more dependent on a smaller labor force and resulting in greater f...

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Chart School

The Tax Cuts are Coming! It's the Stock Trader Weekly Recap.

Courtesy of Blain.

Forgetting the traditional market news, as we began last week both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were at critical support.  A rally Monday showed those support levels held, giving bulls breathing room.  We’ll discuss this more below after we get through the more fundamental news items that transpired.   Traders seemed to breath easier on Monday seeing no escalation with North Korea and came in ready for a bit of a relief rally.

The lack of a nuclear test from North Korea over the weekend did much to reverse defensive positions adopted by traders heading into the weekend, said Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.

It was a very heavy week of S&P 500 type earnings with banks leading the way in the first half of the week. Then a series of large sized companies ac...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Wall Street gears up for busiest earnings week in years (Reuters)

Corporate America is set to unleash its biggest profit-reporting fest in at least a decade next week, with more than 190 members of the S&P 500 index .SPX delivering quarterly scorecards, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data.

Draghi Says ECB Hasn’t Seen Evidence of Durable Eurozone Infl...

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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)


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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:


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CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...

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Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"



Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:


·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union


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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites

About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>

As Seen On:

About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>