July 3rd, 2009 4:36 pm
Hey, Look, The Stress Tests Really Weren't Stressful Enough
Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock
Calculated Risk illustrates what we already knew: the bank stress tests weren't nearly stressful enough.
The chart below looks at unemployment by quarter. The green bars are the "base case" in the stress tests (the most likely scenario, in the government's opinion). The blue bars are the "adverse case" scenario--unlikely but possible. And the red bars are what's actually happening (Q2 is a forecast).
The larger story here, unfortunately, is that the Obama administratio...
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June 30th, 2009 7:19 pm
MARKET COMMENT
Courtesy of Dave Fry, June 30, 2009
Um, “worse than expected”? I guess that sums it up today as Consumer Confidence data was terrible.
Stock price declines today were milder than expected given the news. But, silly me, I forget that this is the quarter and mid-year end—there are bonuses to be had and bullish headlines to be written.
Why did the market rise this quarter? An overwhelming amount of liquidity plus an equal amount of BS. Shorts have been vanquished and, frankly, many don’t trust this market as the integrity of honest market making has been compromised through crony capitalism and double-dealing at the highest levels.
Volume again was light and breadth was negative.
In the meantime the longer-term picture, ...
http://www.etfdigest.com/
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July 3rd, 2009 4:31 pm
Who Is Selling Wholesale Vol And Why? Courtesy of Tyler Durden at
4:23 PM The chart below indicates that while the market is exactly where it was in early December 2008, the VIX has droped by almost 60%. And traditional theories that suggest that the corporate risk is merely being offset to sovereing don't seem to hold much sway- US CDS is again trading at ludicrously tight level. So the question arises: just who is selling 1 month forward vol, and just how are they hedging effectively. Granted, one could make the argument that risk was priced at "total chaos" levels in November and December, the market was running a more headless chicken in March and breaching lower loes, yet the VIX was unable to even threaten penetrating penetrate...
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July 3rd, 2009 11:40am
It is a quite day on the market and a quite rainy day in general where I live so I thought I would dust off my electronic quill and finish this article I have been working on for a while now.
My formal education was technical and as such I approach my trading (such as it is) from a very technical perspective. I have read numerous long term forecasts for the market. I remember reading one article that claimed we are now in wave four of an Eliot wave pattern that is centuries old. Thus this correction will be even more severe than the great depression of the 1930s. I have read other articles where the analyst sees a double top in the S&P500 over the last ten years. Since we have broken the neckline, that projects down to about a value of 200 for the index as some point.
These are all very dire predictions for how bad things will get and where we are headed and quite frankly it is scary indeed. Not to fear though these are just silly lines on a chart right? After all, ...
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June 22nd, 2009 7:19 pm
Insiders Dump Shares at Fastest Pace in 2 Years
Courtesy of Mish
Bloomberg is reporting Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years
Executives at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the biggest stock-market rally in 71 years to sell their shares at the fastest pace since credit markets started to seize up two years ago.
Insiders of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies were net sellers for 14 straight weeks as the gauge rose 36 percent, data compiled by InsiderScore.com show. Amgen Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Sharer and five other officials sold $8.2 million of stock. Christopher Donahue, the CEO...
http://www.insidercow.com /
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June 28th, 2009 8:14 pm
This post is for live trades and daily comments.
To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here
- Optrader
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July 2nd, 2009 1:49 am
What to Buy: ERX/ERY
Courtesy of David at The Oxen Group
On Thursday, The Oxen Group wants to approach the Oxen Buy Pick a little differently. A pattern we are noticing is that economic data is moving this market no matter what other fundamentals and technicals may be out there. Tomorrow, the day will be ruled by unemployment figures coming out from the Labor Department. The estimated number is 9.6%. If we hit that or are below, then the market is going green. If not, we are going red the whole day. It all depends on that 9:30 AM announcement.
The oil market, as well, will move with this announcement. It is hard to predict which way it will swing. If we were betting, we would say a miss higher and into the red. But its impossible to know for sure. Therefore, if it misses and it is higher you w...
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
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