Posts Tagged ‘5% Rule’

Will We Hold It Wednesday – Strong Bounce Edition

What an amazing recovery!  

Just one week ago the World was coming to and end and now everyone has their rally caps back on.  Investors really are sheep – except I think sheep have better memories…  We're still right on plan of dropping 10% and then bouncing 4% (strong bounces) by Wednesday (today) that was initiated on October 6th by our friends at the Fed (see yesterday's post for the summary).  For those of you keeping score, our strong bounce predictions for today were:

  • Dow 16,466 (weak) and 16,632 (strong).
  • S&P 1,878 (weak) and 1,903 (strong).
  • Nasdaq 4,280 (weak) and 4,360 (strong).
  • NYSE 10,360 (weak) and 10,540 (strong).  
  • Russell 1,104 (weak) and 1,128 (strong).

INDU WEEKLYThe Dow is just 17 points away from our goal and we'll just need the NYSE and the Russell to confirm their bounce lines and THEN we can get bullish again.  Meanwhile, we actually got a bit more bearish in our Short-Term Portfolio (also in yesterday's post) as our Long-Term Portfolio popped right back to up 18.1% for the year so we wanted to lock those gains in with the STP, which finished the day up 81.8%, down from 92% in the morning as the markets rocketed.  

If the rally is real, the Dow should have no problem at all popping our 16,632 line – after all, it jumped 234 points yesterday but stopped dead right at our strong bounce line.  The…
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Tempting Tuesday – Low Volume Rally Challenges Our Bounce Lines

RUT WEEKLYIt LOOKS impressive, doesn't it?  

As I said to our Members this morning in our Live Chat Room, all is going according to plan, as we expected to see strong bounces in our indexes by Wednesday – no matter what news or earnings turned out to be.  If the powers that be want the market to bounce – it bounces.  

Our general rule of thumb is that dip buyers only learn their lesson after they have been burned 3 times and, so far, only the August dip buyers are being relly burned but a failure to retake that line and a move lower – that might get them to think twice about mounting another rescue effort next time we test 1,050 on the Russell.  

On this next chart, you can see how the various Fed speakers were used at key inflection points to guide the markets exactly where they wanted them to go.  

As you can see from this S&P chart with Fed notes attached, the manipulation we told you about on 10/6 (see: "Market Mayhem – 12 Fed Speeches in 5 Days Causes Chaos") is merely playing out according to plan and this is why we were able to take full advantage of both the dip (see: "Money-Making Monday: How to Profit from a Market Correction") and the bounce (see: "Wednesday Market Weakness – Oil Collapses to $80, Good or Bad?").

In fact, the TNA Oct $58/60.50 bull call spread that we pointed out last Wednesday at $1.12 closed on Friday morning at $2.40 – up a very nice 114% in 48 hours for those of you who get our morning newsletter (which you can subscribe to here).  Our suggested roll to the Nov $56/63 bull call spread at $3 still has to play out but, so far, we're at $4, so up 33% in 4 trading days is "on track" towards our planned 133% gain in 30 more days.  

This is how rich people get richer folks – if you are in the top 1%, the Fed is out there working for us –
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Testy Tuesday – 10% and/or Bust!

How low can we go?  

So far, the Russell is the only index that's gone through a full 10% correction – falling from 1,180 in early September to 1,050 yesterday – actually 11% – so far.  According to our 5% Rule™, if the 10% line is going to hold over the long term, we should hold -12.5% on any additional move down – that would be 1,050 from the 1,200 line.  Let's call that our line in the sand for now

Meanwhile, as I noted in our Live Member Chat room – we're comfortable going long on the Russell Futures (/TF) over the 1,150 line, looking for a nice run back to 1,080 but THRILLED with 1,060 – as that's already +$1,000 per contract!  Failing to get back over 1,060, however, will be a sign that there's likely more downside to come. 

Of course, thanks to the 5% Rule™ and our Big Chart, we knew to get bearish as soon as 1,200 failed on the Russell, way back in July.  In fact, on June 30th, I titled our morning post: "Monday Misgivings – CASH!!! Is King as we Begin Q3" saying:

I'm NOT going to depress you.

If you want to be depressed about the market, check out my Twitter Account, where I posted our Morning Alert to Philstockworld Members (and you can become one of those HERE) in which I aired my concerns with the Global Macros.  

Last week we discussed the various forms of market manipulation that are keeping us at record highs and, on Friday, I asked "How Many Countries are Faking Economic Data?"


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Thrilling Thursday – S&P 2,000!!! Again…

Wheeeee, what a ride!  

This is why we use hedges – they kept us from stopping out of our long positions during the dip and, since our long positions pay off in a flat or up market, anything not down is VERY profitable for our Long-Term positions, which outnumber our bearish Short-Term hedges by 10:1 in our Income Portfolio and Long-Term Portfolio.  

Markets do, indeed go up AND down on a pretty regular basis and we've made a lot of bottom calls this week, adding more long positions as we got a nice pullback.  Now we have the bounces we predicted and we'll just have to wait and see if our strong bounce lines hold up for the week.  Yesterday morning, before the Market, our 5% Rule™ predicted we'd see:

  • Dow 17,100 (weak) and 17,150 (strong) – Now 17,210
  • S&P 1,990 (weak) and 1,995 (strong) – Now 1,998
  • Nasdaq 4,525 (weak) and 4,550 (strong) – Now 4,555
  • NYSE 10,875 (weak) and 10,950 (strong) – Now 10,885
  • Russell 1,125 (weak) and 1,135 (strong) – Now 1,128

RUT WEEKLYSo we have 3 greens and two in-betweens and that's certainly enough to get us to stop being bearish but not quite enough to turn us bullish yet.  If we are holding the Strong Bounce lines on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, however, we could go long on the Russell, with the …
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Global Correction Edition

You call this a correction?

The Nasdaq is down 4%, Russell is down 5%, the Hang Seng is down 6% and the FTSE is down 3.6% but barely a pause from the rest of our Global Indexes.  The problem is, it's been so long since we had a proper pullback that people think a tiny little correction is the end of the World.  Even in the good old days, before high-frequency trading made a joke out of the market – investors didn't get too upset about a 5% pullback

That may be the problem as well.  The reason the market has marched off to record highs is BECAUSE investors have been led to believe that it's better than bonds, better than cash, even – to have your money in the stock market.  We certainly seem to have convinced a lot of Boards of Directors that the best thing to do with their company's money is to buy back their own stock or the stock of their competitors – no matter how ridiculous the price.  

$533Bn of hard-earned Corporate Profits were spent buying just the S&P 500, by the S&P 500, in the past 12 months alone.  That's 20% more than all of 2013 ($420Bn) and 30% over the 5-year average and that DOESN'T include M&A activity – also at a record pace.   While this has been going on, insiders have been SELLING their company stock at a record pace – Interesting…

So the company uses it's profits, not to invest in it's own future but to prop up it's own stock price – making earnings seem better because you are dividing the profits by a lower number of shares than there were last year.  This inflates the stock price and the insiders get out and that's when you buy – is that about right?  

What a friggin' scam - I can't believe you fell for that!  Seriously, that is such an obvious fraud that you would think people would run screaming away from equities.  The problem is, there's nowhere to run to, is there.  Your cash is being devalued, bonds don't keep up with inflation, real estate is still very…
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Tempting Tuesday – Lead Us Not Into Betting on Bounces

"Forgive us our debts, as we have also forgiven our debtors."

Hah – what a crock!  How many people who have recited that prayer have forgiven any debts?  How many have had debts forgiven?  Certainly none of the G20, who owe each other tens of Trillions of Dollars and certainly not Argentina's bondholders, who drove the nation to default and certainly not the bondholders of THREE Atlantic City Casinos that are on the verge of shutting down and putting 10,000+ people out of work in a county of 275,000 so about 5% of the working population.

Are casinos simply a bad business or is the economy not quite as strong as we are led to believe?  

In the past 14 years, we have more than tripled the debt of the first 224 years of our nation's existence and, in the next 7 years, we are on track to add 150% more (than the $5Bn we had when Clinton left office).  

The $2.4Bn Revel Casino opened in March of 2012 and was $1.5Bn in debt at the beginning of 2013 but did a pre-packaged bankruptcy last year that cut the debt to $272M but it's been hemorrhaging money since and the value of the casino has been slashed to $450M yet an auction scheduled for yesterday got ZERO bidders, which may now lead to yet another bankruptcy – making it an annual event.  

This is no run-down property, this is a beautiful, modern building that LOOKS like $2.4Bn was spent to build it.  It's a beautiful property with nice restaurants and great rooms and a nice beach and a swim out pool on the deck so you can use it even in the winter – no expense was spared but, like many grand projects, the cash flow isn't there to support the great dreams of the creators

Even at $450M, if you could sell the 1,400 rooms (57 floors) into condos and got $300,000 for 1 bedroom apartments, that's only $420M and wouldn't be worth the effort.  So, if you can't do that and you need 3,800 people to run the casino/hotel – that's a pretty big nut to cover each month.  The casino loses roughly $3M per…
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Monday Markets are Meaty, Beaty, Big and Bouncy!

 

"Thruppence and sixpence every day
Just to drive to my baby

I don't care how much I pay (Too much, Magic Bus)
I wanna drive my bus to my baby each day (Too much, Magic Bus)

I don't want to cause no fuss (Too much, Magic Bus)
But can I buy your Magic Bus? (Too much, Magic Bus) " – The Who

This is certainly one Magic Bus of a market, flipping on a dime or, more accurately, bouncing off the Dow's 200 day moving average at 16,350 back towards our predicted strong bounce line at 16,650.  The Transports are also bouncing right off the 100 dma at 142, down from 152 and. per our 5% Rule™, we expect 146 to be tested this morning.  This is not "surprising", this is what we said would happen on Friday morning.  

As we discussed all of last week, BALANCE is the key in a choppy market and our Long-Term Portfolio finished Friday at $590K, up exactly 18% for the year, while our Short-Term Portfolio jumped to $136,000, up 36% for the year and together they are $726,000, up over 20% for the year on our two primary virtual portfolios.  

8-9-2014 12-05-11 AM DIAHaving well-balanced portfolios allowed us to ride out the dip and, in fact, buy more longs while the market was pulling back, rather than panicking out of positions that, for the most part, only went down with the market – rather than because there was any actual weakness in the stock.  

Our general strategy of Being the House – Not the Gambler is also a great help in consistently making progress in our portfolios, even when the market has such a choppy week.  

For most traders, it's "thruppence and sixpence every day" just to hold on to their positions as they gyrate up and down.  As sellers of premium, we own the Magic Bus and we collect those daily pennies instead of selling them and that acts as a tremendous buffer to our long-term investing, where simply hanging on to a position allows us to collect another day's rent!  

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Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 1,920 Edition

Yesterday was a close one!  

We briefly failed our first test of 1,920 (see yesterday's notes) but another low-volume rescue kept us from fulfilling the "Wave C" predicion on this Elliot Wave chart – for now.  

Not that I'm an Elliot Wave person, of course – my theory is that, if you are going to draw 5 points on a graph you can imagine all sorts of random patterns and SOMETIMES you will be right.  About half the time, in fact.  

I believe in bigger numbers and our own EXCLUSIVE 5% Rule™ says the S&P bottomed out at 800 (in 2009) doubled to 1,600 last Spring, consolidated there for a quarter and now has made a 20% move to 1,920 – just like it was supposed to since it bottomed in 2009 (see our many, many predictions over the years).  In fact, it was March of 2012, with the S&P at 1,404, when we set our new goals for the S&P to 1,600.  As I said at the time:

That's right, it turns out our +10% line is still pretty much right on the money, only now we switch our focus to our goal of 1,600 and begin running our numbers off there, rather than from 800.  I know I have been (and still am) Fundamentally bearish on the market at the moment – I just think we are making this move too soon – but that is not to say I think the move is unmakeable.  

SPY WEEJKY

Once we did get the dip in June that we expected at the time (down 10%, back to 1,278 and, fortunately, we had wisely cashed out our Income Portfolio before things turned ugly) we were happy to go gung-ho bullish with our Buy List – the same kind of Buy List we just finised assembling in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar.  In fact, right in that 3/17/12 post, I laid out this play to profit from our prediction:

For example, we expect the S&P to work it's way up to 1,600 and that's SPY $160 and the Jan (2013) $146/154 bull call spread is $3 and you can sell the $110 puts for


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Fibonacci Rules – Sometimes, the Old Ways Are the Best!

Crazy stuff, right?

If you have never before paid attention to Fibonacci Retracement Levels, I would strongly consider paying attention to the S&P chart below.  This chart shows, 2 years later, a consolidation and breakout that could have been predicted in March of 2009.  That’s right, if you asked a Fibonacci technical guy where the S&P was going to consolidate on March 10th of 2009 – he would have said: "Assuming that yesterday was the bottom and coming off our high of 1,576, then I would say we will consolidate between 1,014 and 1,229." 

Leonardo of Pisa (and independent republic at the time) was born in 1,175 and died at the ripe old age of 65.  Pisa was a city of about 10,000 people – a mixture of Muslims, Christians and Jews.  Construction on the great tower began in 1,173 and was not completed until 1,319 (so don’t complain about modern union jobs!) but they knew that it was listing in 1,178 so the point is: Leonardo was born in a small town that had a huge architectural  problem.  

Fibonacci’s father was a State customs worker (essentially overseeing floor trading) and encouraged his son to take up studies in mathematics which, at the time, included learning Hindu Vedic math, which was the foundation of modern algebra and which Fibonacci came to greatly respect, saying:

The knowledge of the art very much appealed to me before all others, and for it I realized that all its aspects were studied in Egypt, Syria, Greece, Sicily, and Provence, with their varying methods; and at these places thereafter, while on business. I pursued my study in depth and learned the give-and-take of disputation. But all this even, and the algorism, as well as the art of Pythagoras I considered as almost a mistake in respect to the method of the Hindus.

Thus Fibonacci became the driving force by which Hindu-Arabic numerals came to replace the Roman ones.  Fortunately, at the time, the arts and sciences were still supported and he found the favor Emperor Frederick II, who funded his studies – even though they didn’t make him any money (imagine that!).  Fibonacci did not invent Fibonacci numbers (it was probably India’s Pingala in 200 BC), he just realized they could be applied to natural growth and regression sequences and, as it turned out,
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M&A Monday – Goldman’s Golden Goose

Hope springs eternal at Goldman Sachs.

This morning our favorite Banksters goosed the EU markets by upping targets on international mining operators Kazakhmys, Lonmin and BHP and that got the European markets off to a flying start out of the gate, despite the fact that UBS had just DOWNgraded the same sector on Friday.  UBS said on Friday that the sector is facing difficult times concerning potential growth with government rulings on mineral leases and the proposed supertax on mining profits in Australia set to hinder metal-based stocks.

We also have a lot of M&A activity, also courtesy of GS, who are leading the resurgence this year with 225 deals to date worth $401.6Bn, accounting for about 20% of all activity going through Goldman's sticky fingers.  In a sign of the times, however, GS only generated $961M in revenues as an M&A advisor as they cut a lot of discounts in order to land the top spot in dealmaking.  Although outdealt by GS, MS, Rothchild, JPM and DB all made more in fees than the Uncle Lloyd show.

In a sign of the end of times, GS's London Headquarters has been taken over by lenders after the owner fell into receivership.  GS's landlord, Antedon, is an offshore real estate firm that bought the building for $500M at the top of the market in 2007 and GS has locked up the building through 2026 at what seems to be not enough money to keep Antedon liquid – it would be very interesting to trace the web of deals that led to this massive default.  

Meanwhile, the consortium of Irish investors that own GS's other London building are also bailing out, this action is coinciding with what Ireland's Independent says is a campaign by Wall Street Hedge Funds to short sell Irish Government Bonds.  US hedge funds Groveland Capital and Corrientes Advisors are thought to have taken major positions against Irish debt. Giant €60bn asset-manager Pictet also revealed that it had earlier bet against Irish government bonds. JP Morgan is also thought to have taken a bearish position on Irish debt.  The International Monetary Fund estimated that up to €3bn of Ireland's debt was being targeted by speculators through the uses of derivatives.

So,…
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Phil's Favorites

Has The Fed's Policy Decisions Propped Up Equities?

 

Has The Fed's Policy Decisions Propped Up Equities?

Courtesy of The Fat Pitch

Summary: The stock market rises on days when the FOMC releases its policy statement, probably as a result of some uncertainty being removed for market participants. This pattern has existed for more than 30 years. The Fed's ability to "jawbone" the market higher is no more exceptional now than it was during any prior bull market. 

* * *

Morgan Stanley's chief economist this week stated ...



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Zero Hedge

Meet The Young Virginia Democrat That Registered 19 Dead People To Vote In Virginia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just yesterday we wrote about an FBI investigation into potential voter fraud in the critical swing state of Virginia after it was revealed that 19 dead people had recently been re-registered to vote (see "FBI Investigating More Dead People Voting In The Key Swing State Of Virginia").  While the ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Atlanta Fed trims U.S. third-quarter growth forecast to 2.4 percent (Reuters)

The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed on Friday, following the latest data on inventories, trade and consumer spending this week.

Satellite Data Show China May Have Stored More Crude Than Estimated (Bloomberg)

...



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Mapping The Market

Sad Clown

A thought from Jean-Luc:

Every day that goes by brings more shady deals from Trump's past – now Cuba, more stuff about his foundation, his taxes! No wonder he doesn't want to release his taxes either – who the heck knows is buried in there.

In the meantime, Trump gets up at 5:00 AM to tweet about Alicia Machado! What a despicable coward little man-child!

Atrios sums up my feelings:

Sad Clown

I admit I find it hard to keep up the sense of humor about things these days. We laughed a lot during the Bush years, didn't we, my fellow pony aficionados. Trump should just make me laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh. But with Bush we could sorta pretend that people voted for him because they didn't quite see him for what he was. There's no doing that with Trump. Trump is Trump. He won't win, but a lot of...



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ValueWalk

LOTE: You Are Not Morally Obligated To Vote For The Lesser Of Two Evils

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

LOTE: You Are Not Morally Obligated To Vote For The Lesser Of Two Evils

“If Hitler were to invade Hell, I would at least make a favorable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons.” — Winston Churchill.

In Churchill’s estimation, Stalin was less evil than Hitler. Hence, the Allied Forces’ brief friendship with the Soviets: a marriage of convenience formed in Hell.

Image source: Wikimedia CommonsLOTE Dilemma The Right to Complain.

Every four years, Americans face the so-called lesser-of-two-evils (LOTE) dilemma: “Both major-party presidential candidates are lousy, but I’m duty-bound to vote. Free people get to co...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities attempting triple breakout, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at Commodities ETF DBC over the past decade. Since the highs in 2008, DBC has been a great asset to avoid. Is it time to start paying attention and potentially own this hard hit ETF? Check out the rare price situation below in DBC.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The CRB (Commodities Index) has been down 5-years in a row, this has never happened in the history of commoditi...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!



Date Found: Sunday, 27 March 2016, 02:31:30 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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