Posts Tagged ‘additional stimulus’

Is a Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern Completing: Just Like On the Eve of the Second Wave Down in the Great Depression?

Is a Massive Head and Shoulders Pattern Completing … Just Like On the Eve of the Second Wave Down in the Great Depression?

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog

In January 2009, I pointed out:

The Telegraph’s lead economic writer, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, has an interesting article arguing that we are in 1931-like conditions:

  • A big crash has already happened
  • Things are very gloomy
  • But we haven’t been hit by the biggest crash, the "second leg down" which didn’t end for a couple of years

What’s he talking about?

Well, look at this chart:

(click here to see full image).

As you can see, the 1929 crash was actually very small compared to the "second leg down" crash which didn’t end until 1932 or 1933.

According to Elliot Wave and other chartists, a second – bigger – crash is on its way, just like Evans-Pritchard is warning.

Today, CNBC is reporting:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is repeating a pattern that appeared just before markets fell during the Great Depression, Daryl Guppy, CEO at Guppytraders.com, told CNBC Monday.

“Those who don’t remember history are doomed to repeat it…there was a head and shoulders pattern that developed before the Depression in 1929, then with the recovery in 1930 we had another head and shoulders pattern that preceded a fall in the market, and in the current Dow situation we see an exact repeat of that environment,” Guppy said.

(Robert McHugh is saying the same thing.)

And yesterday, Evans-Pritchard gave an update on macroeconomic trends in an article entitled "With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932":

"The economy is still in the gravitational pull of the Great Recession," said Robert Reich, former US labour secretary. "All the booster rockets for getting us beyond it are failing."

"Home sales are down. Retail sales are down. Factory orders in May suffered their biggest tumble since March of last year. So what are we doing about it? Less than nothing," he said. [You can read the rest of Reich's essay here

California is tightening faster than Greece…. Can Illinois be far behind?

***

Roughly a million Americans have dropped out of the jobs market altogether over the past two months. That is the only


continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

U.S. Oil Production Sets New Modern Record

 

U.S. Oil Production Sets New Modern Record 

Courtesy of EconMatters

EIA Report   I looked over the weekly Petroleum Inventory Report put out by the EIA today, and the biggest takeaway by far was that U.S. oil production set a new modern era high at 9.566 Million Barrels per day. The last high in U.S. production occurred in March, and it appeared that the U.S. production numbers were getting slightly weaker, and maybe the top in U.S. production was in. But this past week Production really ramped back up with a blowout ...

more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

5 Things To Ponder: Is The Stock Market Rational Or Nuts?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,

This past week, Houston, where I live, was flooded by a torrential down pour. However, it was not the rain itself that was the problem, it was the surge in rivers that flow through Houston. As far away as Austin and Dallas, rainfall had already began to flow into the San Jacinto and Colorado rivers which eventually culminated in rising water levels in Houston. Furthermore, Houston is designed so that water flows into the streets and eventually into the bayou and rivers out to the Gulf of Mexico. It didn't take much mor...



more from Tyler

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500 – Is it repeating the 2000 & 2007 topping pattern?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Could the S&P 500 be pulling a repeat of the 2000-2007 topping process?

The chart above reflects that the tops in 2000 & 2007 were 7 years and 7 months apart. Is it possible that another top is taking place 7 years and 7 months from the 2007 high? As the S&P is facing this potential time window repeating pattern, it is also staring the Fibonacci 161% Extension resistance level based upon the 2007 highs and 2009 lows, at the top of a rising wedge.

Is the S&P the only market facing a breakout test? The chart below takes a look at the white hot DAX index.

...



more from Kimble C.S.

Chart School

STTG Market Recap May 28, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

After 2 volatile days, a return to more calm on Thursday as the S&P 500 fell 0.13% and the NASDAQ 0.17%.  The daily Greek drama continues; IMF Managing Director Christine Lagare told a German newspaper that a Greek exit from the euro zone was possible but that this would probably not herald the end of the euro currency.  On Wednesday, both U.S. and European equities rallied after Greece said it had stated crafting a “staff level agreement” with its international bailout supervisors. However, European officials rebuked the claims on Thursday, saying there was some way to go before any agreement could be drawn up and that they were surprised by the upbeat sentiment from Greece.

Indexes look much the same as we entered the week.

...



more from Chart School

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks provide a tepid breakout as Fed greases the skids. So now what?

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Early last week, stocks broke out, with the S&P 500 setting a new high with blue skies overhead. But then the market basically flat-lined for the rest of the week as bulls just couldn’t gather the fuel and conviction to take prices higher. In fact, the technical picture now has turned a bit defensive, at least for the short term, thus joining what has been a neutral-to-defensive tilt to our fundamentals-based Outlook rankings.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the t...



more from Sabrient

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 24th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



more from Pharmboy

Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



more from Bitcoin

Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



more from Paul

Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>