Posts Tagged ‘ALU’

Call Spread Looks For Upside In Cliffs Shares

 

Today’s tickers: CLF, YPF & ALU

CLF - Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. – A bullish spread initiated on Cliffs Natural Resources this morning looks for shares in the largest North American producer of iron ore pellets to move higher by year end. Shares in Cliffs today increased as much as 6.75% to $34.47 in the first half of the session, rebounding after last week trading down to a 2-year low of $28.05. One options player positioning for the price of the underlying to continue higher appears to have purchased a 500-lot Dec. 28 ’12 $34/$38 call spread for a net premium of $0.78 per contract. The spread makes money as long as CLF shares rally 2.6% over the current price of $33.91 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $34.78, with maximum potential profits of $3.22 per contract available on the position in the event shares gain 12% to hit $38.00 by expiration.

YPF - YPF SA – Shares in Argentina’s largest energy company rose sharply today on reports the oil and gas producer may bid for Petrobras’s Argentine assets. The stock increased as much as 7.6% to $13.95 in the first half of the trading day, sparking heavier than usual trading traffic in YPF options. Upside call buying in the front month options suggests some traders are positioning for shares to extend gains in the near term, with upwards of 700 lots changing hands at the Dec. $15 strike versus open interest of 10 contracts. It looks like most of these call options were purchased for an average premium of $0.10 apiece in the early going, preparing buyers to profit should YPF’s shares rally another 8% to exceed $15.10 at expiration next week. Shares in YPF, down roughly 60% year-to-date, last traded above $15.10 back in April. It looks like traders are also buying the Jan. 2013 $15 strike calls today, with roughly 310 purchased this morning for an average premium of $0.23 per contract. Time and sales data from Thursday’s session reveals around 500 of the Jan. 2013 $15 strike calls were purchased yesterday…
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Try and Try Again Tuesday – 3 More Trade Ideas That Make 300% if the Market Pops

Here we go again (again)!

Yep, that's what I said last Tuesday and the Tuesday before that because Tuesday is a day they push the Futures higher and ditch the Dollar and tell you that this time it's different because of the same rumors they had the Tuesday before only this week – the data is getting worse and worse, as we know is better, right?  

Last Tuesday we set levels to capitulate and go fully bullish at Dow 13,464, S&P 1,428, Nasdaq 3,060, NYSE 8,160 and Russell 816 and, as of yesterday's close we had the Nasdaq and the Russell over their marks needing just one confirmation to make it 3 of 5 and begin to flip our short-term portfolios (the $25KPs) bullish.  We are soooo close but, so far – no cigar.  

While we waited, we looked at some upside hedges that would do well if the market continued higher.  Just as we get downside protection when we're bullish – we use upside protection when we're bearish and I suggested taking 5% or 10% positions in aggressive upside plays to help balance a bearish portfolio against – well against exactly what happened in the past 7 days.  Our trade ideas were:  

  • 2 FAS Oct $105/115 bull call spread at $2, selling 1 BBY 2014 $18 puts for $3.25 for net .75, now $1.15 – up 53%
  • 2014 SHLD $32.50 puts sold for $7.50, now $6.40 – up 15% 
  • 6 EWJ Jan $9 calls at .53, selling 1 BBY 2014 $18 put at $3.25 for a net .07 credit, still net .07 credit – even 
  • TNA Oct $55/61 bull call spread at $2.50, selling Oct $42 puts for $1.90 for net .60, now $1.80 – up 200%

The BBY puts jumped over 20% yesterday, from below $3 to $3.75 and that killed two of our trades (and worse today after earnings!), that were up significantly in Friday's update (which is why we take quick gains like that off the table).  The good news is the EWJ play gives us a nice, new entry at the same net price so that one is still good and, of course, we are done with TNA after making 200% in a week and we'll find a fresh horse for that money.

Speaking of fresh horses – for our offsetting short puts today – let's take…
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Options Feeding Frenzy Gains Momentum as Shares in Ford Motor Co. Hit 8-Year High

Today’s tickers: F, ALU, WMB, TLCR, PG & LNG

F - Ford Motor Co. – The automaker’s shares jumped 6.80% during the session to an intraday high of $17.41, the highest recorded share price for Ford Motor Co. since June 3, 2002. Options on Ford are extremely well trafficked today with shares surging to new heights and the market eagerly awaiting rival General Motors Company’s public stock offering. More than 2.2 call options are changing hands on the stock for each single put in play out of the more than 704,650 contracts exchanged on the automobile maker as of 3:45 pm in New York. Nearer-term call options are the most active, with volume in November $17 strike calls exceeding 70,800 lots ahead of the closing, bell versus previously existing open interest of 45,757 contracts at that strike. The majority of those in-the-money call options were purchased for an average premium of $0.46 apiece. Call buyers at this strike make money if Ford’s shares exceed $17.46 ahead of expiration on Friday. Buying interest spread all the way up to the sky-high November $20 and $21 strikes. More than 5,000 of the November $20 strike calls were picked up for an average premium of $0.03 a-pop. The premium on these contracts will continue to rise as long as Ford’s shares head higher in the next 4 trading sessions, and may provide call buyers the opportunity to bank handsome profits ahead of expiration day. The December $20 strike calls were even more popular, with some 17,000 lots purchased at an average premium of $0.15 each. Bullish players were also seen selling in- and out-of-the-money put options across multiple expiries. Near-term November $16 strike puts were the most heavily populated as upwards of 53,250 contracts changed hands by 3:50 pm. Strong demand for the automaker’s option contracts, GM’s impending IPO and the sharp shift in Ford’s share price today helped lift the overall reading of options implied volatility on the stock 9.4% to 45.92% late in the…
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Thrilling Thursday Morning

This is starting to get funny.

The Beige Book was certainly no great shakes yesterday but we got our usual afternoon "stick save," with the indexes gaining 1% between 1:30 and the close to bring us to barely negative finish.  By the time Asia opened, another half point had been added to the US futures and that allowed China to bounce back and we made yet another half point on Europe’s open around 3am.  So here we are at 7:30, with our futures up almost a full point on no particular good news.

Of course, this is the same pattern we got in the days following the last Beige Book – a blow-off top into the cliff we fell off on the following Monday and we’ll have to see what we get this time.  This is why I said in yesterday’s morning post: "We’re in "take the money and run" mode on our puts as we’ll be happy with a quick dip and a quick profit as we test our lower levels."  You can’t press your luck in this market – especially if you are a bear!  I screwed up because I thought the GDP was today but it’s not until tomorrow and that makes a very big difference and explains why the pumpers were able to come out in such force yesterday, as they already think they have the jobs nuber "in the bag."

I’m starting to think the GDP may be in the bag too as we have to pin this new round of market exuberance on our President, who managed to get himself quoted all over the planet saying "the Recession is Over."  Now, what he actually said, in the proper context was: 

Now, I don’t know if any of you noticed it. Maybe they’re selling Newsweeks by the check-out stand, but the latest cover of Newsweek says, quote, "The Recession is Over." Now, I bet you found this news a little startling. I know I did, because obviously people are going through a tough time all across the country.

This is a really good tactic for Obama to take.  He gets to be quoted (like Nouriel Roubini last week) completely out of context but, if anyone comes back to question his wisdom later he can easily point to his statement and say "that’s not what I said at all." …
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Phil's Favorites

Senate GOP advances a health care bill. Now what?

 

Senate GOP advances a health care bill. Now what?

Courtesy of Jeffrey Lazarus, Georgia State University; David McLennan, Meredith College, and Rachel Caufield, Drake University

On July 25, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell narrowly managed to keep a Republican effort to reform health care alive. We asked our experts to consider the importance of this procedural vote and what happens next.

Jeffrey Lazarus, Georgia State University

Which...

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ValueWalk

Illinois and Connecticut Face Pension Collapse

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It’s shocking to see the budget horror stories coming out of two of the nation’s leading states. Illinois and Connecticut are in fiscal freefall, and their leaders are taking the exact wrong approach in their misguided efforts to turn things around. If they were smart, they would look to the example of states like Florida to discover how to weather fiscal storms.

tpsdave / Pixabay

Illinois faces a staggering budget gap of close to $10 billion, a crisis worsened by a state pension program funded at just 37 percent and credit downgrades that leave th...



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Zero Hedge

"If The VIX Goes Bananas", Morgan Stanley Shows What It Would Look Like

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

From Chris Metli of Morgan Stanley

It’s easy to become numb to the low volatility environment and the risks it presents.  While trying to pick a trough in vol has been a fool’s errand, focusing on the risks resulting from vol being so low is not.  Low volatility has produced a regime where the risks are asymmetric and negatively convex, so being prepared for an unwind is critical.  This is not a call that vol is about to spike, but you need a plan if it does.

This note details how a short vol unwind might develop. A violent rise in volatility c...



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Digital Currencies

SEC Cracks Down On "Initial Coin Offerings": Concludes Tokens Are Subject To Securities Laws

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In potentially groundbreaking news for the blockchain community, moments ago the SEC issued a press release, referencing an investor bulletin on Initial Coin Offerings, which concluded that DAO Tokens, a Digital Asset, are securities for ...



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Biotech

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

The cells inside this bioreactor are the real pharmaceutical factories. Sanofi Pasteur, CC BY-NC-ND

In a factory just outside San Francisco, there’s an upright stainless steel vat the size of a small car, and it’s got something swirling inside.

The vat is stud...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Joins Bull Thesis TEAM On Atlassian Corporation

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 25, 2017 20 Stocks Moving In Monday's Pre-Market Session ...

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Chart School

Tech Gaining Momentum. Small Caps Recover.

Courtesy of Declan.

Tech markets continued the good work from Friday as buyers continued to bid up the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Large Caps posted small losses but this was more about attention elsewhere than any Large Cap specifics.

The Nasdaq experienced a mini-breakout from the consolidation over the last 3 days (traders on the hourly time frame may find some joy here) which keeps the index on course to test larger upper channel resistance. Technicals are net bullish but its relative performance against peer indices which is doing particularly well; Large Caps in particular.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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