Phil- I am a former portfolio manager and now retired. I have been following you for about six months and I now know why you have so many followers you are very insightful and knowledgeable.
Thanks for all the work you put into this site. I have looked at a few other option advisory or "mentoring" services this year, but no one offers even a fraction of the content or the level of services you provide at PSW!
I enjoy your informative materials, Phil... as it is obviously beneficial to so many "styles" of trading the markets... long term, swing or day trading the market moves.
As a longer term trader, I really like you long term calls, as I for one recognize the difficulty of calling these, because the further out you go in time, projecting price movement becomes more difficult.
I have to congratulate you for your accuracy... You called the March 2009 market upward reversal almost to the day, and the AAPL reversal to THE day. Only one who has been a student of the economy and the markets over a period of time could have done this, and so many other accurate calls. I'm sure it was difficult and consistent work, but it did pay off... thanks from one who benefited big time !
I have definitely learned to take smaller wins early and be happy with that. Lately, I've aimed for $250 profit per day. Doing that daily/weekly x 48 weeks (assuming I take some time off) works out to 60k per year. That's a lot of money!! $250 moves happen all the time if you just wait for them.
Peter D, Just a note of thanks. Eight weeks ago, I entered my first RUT strangles, when the RUT was at 625. Tomorrow, I will let them expire, with the RUT at 625 (give or take). I didn't care when the RUT went to 650, nor when it dropped to 590. Easiest, no touch money I've made in a long time.
Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).
Thanks to your teaching and guidance, I was able to make a killing on my /TF shorts. I averaged into 12 shorts at 1252 and got out of 6 at 1242 and 6 more at 1235. Last week I did the same with /CL, though I got out too early and left $2 on the table. Thank you!
Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )
Iflantheman & Gel1
I discovered PSW while reading up on the US economy and how it applies to all the poor folk of the world and to myself as a humble UK desk slave.
This year I put time into learning options trading. I upgraded (with great administrative difficulty!) my stock dealing account to deal options. Now I am an avid reader of PSW and subscribed for voyeur membership. Initially feeling out of my depth struggling to keep up with the peculiar language of options traders, I unsubscribed feeling a little under confident and uncertain if the small stake I have to invest in options could generate enough to justify my PSW subscription. Nevertheless, I've benefited considerably from the member's material. From a small number of initial trades, I've exceeded profit targets enough to consider re-subscribing in some capacity. Thanks for the knowledge and more than anything I appreciate the human angle, the humour and the ecologically sympathetic approach rarely seen in other financial media. Best wishes all - Jon
I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.
Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!
Thanks to Phil (again) for the lessons on the art of the roll, selling premium and hanging tight under fire (particularly in the first hour of trading-MADNESS). Watching you manage the $25KP has really helped my trading in a big way.
hil, I hit my targets for the year in my 401K (thanks in no small part to your site), so I cashed out of all positions a couple of weeks ago. Feels good... I'm conservative with this money –looking for 2% per month, which i've been able to do… thx.
Phil- I want to let you know that you really helped me make some money this morning when I probably would have lost on my own. I was stuck in doctors waiting rooms most of the morning starting at 8AM. By following the game plan you laid out and using my smartphone, I went short on oil whenever we got to 61.50 and long at 61 waiting for the spikes ahead of inventory. When 10:30 rolled around I was out after selling longs at 61.60 a few minutes earlier. I went short at 61.75-61.80 and voila, rode it down to 60.60 or so. Thank you.
SPY/Phil, I took a big swing on January 26th following your advice to another member and bought 1615 contracts of Mar 185/190 BCS on SPY that will expire ITM today paying $290,700 on the $500k bet. I thought it might be fun to see what a winning trade looks like. Great call on your part and looking back it seems pretty obvious.
Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!
As a fellow "low-end" investor I like Phil's Buy/Write strategy on solid stocks. Before I came here I loved to try to "figure things out" with very little success "TRYING TO FIGURE THINGS OUT"! I traded too much and fell in love with stocks that "should have done" what they didn't do. Now a majority of my accounts are in Buy/Writes suggested here or cash (waiting for a better time for more Buy/Writes). I use 15-20% of my total holding to short term trade and hedge. This is manageable with my full time job as a business owner. I have found Phil's system a more discipline way to achieve the returns I want without relying on my ability (more like inability to "figure things out").
Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….
Best day ever trading the futures, thanks to Phil's excellent call this am, and his "play the laggard" instruction. Well done Phil!
Phil, I have to hand it to you. It seemed that you were the only person on the planet that thought stocks falling was still possible. I am glad I listened. About the end of the year I was really beginning to second guess though. Thanks for suggesting taking some profits last Nov. It no longer looks like I missed much.
Opt, I think the hardest thing is being disciplined enough to trade with you. Atleast now when I see something go in the red I know how much I'm going to loose and that I will profit somewhere else and have enough money left at the end of the day to trade again. Thanks for all your hard work! My stress levels are down 75% and I have even made a small profit in the short time I've been here
Thanks for the free disaster hedge ideas. I implemented variations of two of them on SDS bull call spreads and EEM bear put spreads (haven't done the TZA yet) and they really hedged my short term longs nicely today. Makes it seem a lot less like gambling.
You are the man (of the people)!
Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.
Thanks Phil another great week of guiding us!
Looking over your main themes last week, the "China may fall first" and "if you missed it previously, Thurs am gives you a second chance to short" were absolutely on target. I had to rely on stop-losses because of my schedule but just those two calls could have been worth a small fortune. Keep it up and I look forward to your new portfolio.
Being a bear is easy (and I am not convinced we are doing all that well on the whole as an economy), but one cannot fight the trend (didn't Phil say that a while ago)? Just cover, make 5-10-15-20% and move on. It really does add up by chipping away. All I can say is I am back to 2007 levels in my account b'f the crash with this run up and some very nice help on this board….so kudos to us (and me!!)…
I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….
I have to thank you for excelling yourself during this past week. I have spent a good few hours going over your notes and comments and there are so many gems on repairing and rolling trades that I have been beavering away on paying special attention to my major positions and analysing them using your approach on Tuesday. Being able to look at a group of trades on the same underlying (in this case AAPL) and taking a detached view by assessing the impact of the underlying reaching different price points was extremely reassuring.
Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!
Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels.
Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402
My sceen is showing:
Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404
INTC - Intel Corp. – Shares in Intel kicked off the trading session in negative territory on Wednesday morning, declining as much as 1.1% versus a 0.65% decline in the S&P 500 Index in the early going. U.S. stocks have since halved earlier losses and Intel’s shares are moving higher, up 0.65% on the session at $21.90 as of 10:50 a.m. ET. Heavy trading traffic in June expiry calls near the start of the trading day suggests one strategist is positioning for shares in Intel Corp. to rally during the next few months. Upwards of 27,000 calls have changed hands at the Jun. $23 strike versus open interest of 10,898 contracts. It looks like most of the volume was purchased at an average premium of $0.26 apiece, including the single-largest print of 15,988 calls traded. The bullish bet on INTC is working this morning, with premium required to purchase the Jun. $23 strike calls up more than 30% over the $0.26 in premium paid this morning to stand at $0.35 each as of 11:00 a.m. in New York. Profits are available on the strategy at June expiration in the event that Intel’s shares rise 6.0% over the current price of $21.90 to surpass the average breakeven point at $23.26. Intel’s first-quarter earnings report is less than three weeks away, scheduled for release after the closing bell on April 16th.
AOL - AOL, Inc. – Options are changing hands at a clip on the online content, products and services provider this morning, with shares in AOL rising sharply following an upgrade to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equal Weight’ with a target price increase to $44.00 from $38.00 at Barclays. Shares in AOL rallied as much as 9.5% during the first half of the session to $39.62. Traders anticipating additional near-term gains in the price of the underlying shares purchased front month call options on the stock this morning. It looks like buyers stepped in to buy contracts across the April $37, $38, $39, $40 and…
AOL - AOL, Inc. – Shares in online media company, AOL, Inc., jumped more than 16% today to a record high of $41.80 after the company posted third-quarter earnings and sales that beat analyst forecasts and said advertising revenue increased 7% in the quarter, the most in years. Options traders appear to be buying into the rally, snapping up front-month call options to position for continued gains in the price of the underlying in the near term. Bulls picked up nearly 5,000 of the deep in-the-money Nov. $39 strike calls for an average premium of $1.22 apiece this morning, and stand ready to profit at expiration as long as AOL’s shares top the average breakeven price of $40.22. Upside calls are also active at the higher Nov. $40 striking price, where upwards of 5,500 in-the-money calls changed hands against open interest of 1,239 contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the $40 calls were purchased in the first half of the session at an average premium of $0.82 a-pop. Call buyers make money if shares in the Internet media company extend gains to settle above $40.82 at expiration next week.
THC - Tenet Healthcare Corp. – Health care services company, Tenet Healthcare Corp., is selling off ahead of its third-quarter earnings report tomorrow morning, with shares in the name down nearly 5% as of 1:30 p.m. ET to stand at $24.65. At least one options trader is preparing for the price of the underlying to extend losses in the near term, buying a 5,000-lot Nov. $21/$24 bear put spread at a net premium of $0.67 per contract. The put spread starts making money if shares in Tenet Healthcare slip 5.4% to breach the effective breakeven price of $23.33 by November expiration. Maximum potential profits of $2.33 per contract are available to the downside should shares plunge 15% to $21.00 by expiration next week.…
AOL - AOL, Inc. – Put activity on AOL this morning may be the work of one strategist locking in gains on the high-flying stock. Shares in AOL, up roughly 175% since October 2011, are currently down 1.8% on the day to stand at $35.92 as of 11:20 a.m. ET. The largest trade in AOL options this morning was the purchase of 4,500 of the Nov. $34 strike put for a premium of $0.80 per contract. The options trade does not appear to have been tied to stock, although the put buyer may be establishing downside protection to hedge an existing long position in the shares. Alternatively, the sizable transaction could be an outright bearish bet that shares will decline in the near term, perhaps in the aftermath of the company’s third-quarter earnings report on October 31st. The position makes money if shares in AOL drop 7.5% from the current level to breach the effective breakeven price of $33.20 by November expiration.
EXPR - Express, Inc. – Options in play on Express this morning suggests shares in the apparel retailer, hard hit in recent months and sitting at all-time lows, may stage a significant turn-around in the next six months. Express shares, down nearly 60% from a March 2012 peak of $26.27, fell 2.35% in the first half of the trading session to $11.23 by 11:35 a.m. in New York. Upside call buying at the April 2013 $15 strike, where some 2,300 contracts were picked up for an average premium of $0.73 apiece, suggests at least one trader is positioning for EXPR shares to potentially increase sharply by expiration next year. The calls may be profitable at April expiration in the event that Express, Inc. shares jump 40% to exceed the average breakeven price of $15.73. The specialty retailer reports third-quarter earnings ahead of the opening bell on November 28th.…
AOL - AOL, Inc. – Options volume on AOL is up sharply today on news the web services company agreed to sell and license patents to Microsoft in a deal valued at more than $1 billion. The deal drove shares in AOL, Inc. up as much as 46.6% to an intraday- and new 52-week high of $27.00. More than 28,000 options have changed hands on AOL as of 1:00 p.m. in New York, which is roughly 22 times the stock’s 90-day average volume of 1,276 contracts. Options traders positioning for shares in AOL to extend gains in the near term snapped up calls in the front month. Fresh interest building in the April $26, $27 and $28 strikes was largely initiated by buyers. Volume is substantial at the $27 strike, where around 2,250 calls changed hands against 2 open positions. It looks like traders paid an average premium of $0.53 apiece for the options, which may be profitable at expiration as long as shares in AOL rally another 2.0% to surpass the average breakeven price of $27.53 at expiration. Bullish bets initiated back in March certainly seem to be paying off handsomely for some strategists in the aftermath of the run-up in shares. Open interest in the April $19 strike call suggests 200 contracts were purchased for a premium of $0.40 each on March 16th, while another 200 lots were picked up on March 22nd at a premium of $0.25 apiece. These calls currently tout a last-traded price of $7.85, a roughly 20-fold increase over premiums required to purchase the options just a few weeks ago.
JCP - J.C. Penney, Inc. – A long-term bullish options play on retailer, J.C. Penney, Inc., looks for shares in the name to tack on substantial…
HAL - Halliburton Co. – Options activity on Halliburton suggests one strategist seized the opportunity to take a bullish stance on the provider of oil equipment and services this morning on the heels of a 27.5% dip in the price of the underlying during the past three weeks. Shares in Houston, TX-based Halliburton recovered 4.8% of their value thus far in the session to trade at $44.46 as of 11:45 am ET. It looks like the options player is positioned for limited, albeit potentially substantial, bullish movement in the price of the underlying through September expiration. The investor initiated a ratio call spread, buying 5,000 calls at the September $50 strike for a premium of $1.21 each, and selling 10,000 calls up at the September $55 strike at a premium of $0.425 apiece. Net premium paid to initiate the spread amounts to $0.36 per contract, thus preparing the trader to profit should shares in HAL rally another 13.3% over the current price of $44.46 to surpass the effective breakeven price of $50.36 by expiration next month. Maximum potential profits of $4.46 per contract pad the investor’s wallet in the event that Halliburton’s shares surge 23.7% to settle at $55.00 at September expiration. HAL’s shares reached a 52-week high of $57.77 on July 25 before the market meltdown pulled the price of oil and oil and gas companies down with it.
AOL - AOL, Inc. – U.S. stocks are rallying ahead of the FOMC statement this afternoon, recovering somewhat from Monday’s harrowing selloff, but investors in global web services provider AOL suffered more pain today as shares in the name failed to join in the broad market gain. AOL’s shares plunged 22.0% today to $11.75, the lowest traded price since the company’s 2009 spinoff from…
TSCO - Tractor Supply Co. – Bullish players paid Tractor Supply Co. options a visit at the start of the U.S. trading week with shares in the operator of retail farm and ranch stores increasing as much as 2.4% to a new all-time high of $69.45. Investors expecting shares in the specialty retailer to extend gains in the near term exchanged more than 1,400 calls at the July $70 strike against previously existing open interest of 265 contracts. It looks like most of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.77 apiece. Call buyers make money if shares in Tractor Supply rally another 1.9% over today’s high of $69.45 to surpass the average breakeven price of $70.77 by July expiration. Put options in the front month attracted some attention, as well. Investors betting shares in TSCO are likely to exceed $60.00 through expiration day sold 267 puts at the July $60 strike for an average premium of $0.09 each. Meanwhile, some 300 puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.40 up at the July $65 strike. The rise in demand for options on the stock helped lift options implied volatility on the stock 7.2% to 31.84% by 11:30 am ET. July contract call and put options expire ahead of Tractor Supply Co.’s second-quarter earnings report after the final bell on July 20.
INFY - Infosys Technologies Ltd. – Shares in Infosys have been in recovery-mode since touching down at a 6-month low of $60.30 two weeks prior. The stock gained 9.7% to trade as high as $66.14 this morning, but options activity on the stock today suggests one strategist is poised to benefit from a pull back in the price of the underlying. The provider of IT services and solutions is…
By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Bryant Rylee lives a seemingly simple life. Before the state intervened in his life, his Facebook page—which has a modest 591 friends—was relatively quiet. However, that was before a sandcastle built by his son caused the city of Panama, Florida, to threaten him with a $500 fine and up to 60 days in jail, a threat that caused his Facebook page to get its “fifteen minutes of fame.”
Seemingly no amount of empirical evidence will ever convince progressives that raising minimum wages to artificially elevated levels is a bad idea. Somehow the basic idea that raising the cost of a good ultimately results in lower consumption of that good just doesn't compute.
And while roughly 50% of the country will promptly ignore it, below is yet another study, from Dr. David Macpherson of Trinity University and Dr. William Even or Miami...
The S&P 500, Banks, Small Caps and Transportation indices continue to climb higher, as the long-term trend remains up. The two charts below, look at performance over the past month and how each index is testing long-term breakout levels.
The chart below looks at how the above mentioned indices have performed over the past 30-days.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
These key markets are a little soft the past 30-days. The Power of the Pattern below looks at where this softness is taking pl...
Economists are crowing over a huge and unexpected spike in pending home sales. The Econoday consensus estimate was a rebound of 2.4% following the 2.8% decline in January. Instead, the index spiked 5.5%.
Major improvement can be expected for existing home sales in the March to April period based on February’s pending home sales index which jumped 5.5 percent to 112.3. This is well beyond the Econoday consensus which was already calling for a sizable 2.4 percent gain. This index tracks initial contract signings and though winter months are always volatile due to seasonality and...
You are thinking about selling your home. A similar place nearby sells for more than you thought it would. You list your home. This is how the housing market is supposed to work. As a result, over time, pric...
Bulls were able to deliver across the board gains, helping to position yesterday's action as a swing low. Weakness at this point would offer itself as a buying opportunity, but markets wouldn't tolerate more than a couple of days of losses if they were to go down this route.
The S&P is at resistance of the prior swing low and the 20-day MA, but today's action is looking good for an upside break tomorrow? Technicals are firmly in the red and need more than today's gain to fix them.
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Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.
A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.
As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...
ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.
As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...
Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.
In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.
This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.
Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for
informational purposes only and is based upon information that is
considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW)
nor its affiliates
warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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