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Posts Tagged ‘Apple’

#Bendgate Hoax Exposed – Who is Attacking Apple?

iPhone 6 Plus GIF 3What a controversy!  

By now, we've all seen the "Bengate" video of the iPhone 6+ being bent by hand but now it turns out that the video that's gone viral may have been FAKED!!!  This is a video that knocked 5% off AAPL's stock price this week, costing its investors $30Bn in lost market value – so not a harmless hoax.

As a disclaimer, it's important to note that, in our first Webcast of the year, we picked AAPL as our top trade idea and again, on TV on March 6th, I was almost embarrassed to say AAPL was once again our trade of the year for BNN (it was last year's trade too).  AAPL is up 33% since than and our initial trade idea is up over 300% (we used options for leverage) but we still have bullish AAPL trades in our Member Portfolios – so we do like the company and have some bias…

That being said, we don't know the bias of "Unbox Therapy" and we don't KNOW that it's a hoax but it's starting to seem like one as AAPL has already put out a rare public statement rebuffing the claim, stating that only 9 customers to date have complained of bent phones (out of 20M sold) and now Consumer Reports has done a test confirming that, indeed, you can't bend an iPhone 6 Plus with your bare hands.  

Speaking of hands, there are some inconsistencies in the Unbox video that are very disturbing.  First of all, look at the hands in the image above and then look at the guy narrating the video – people are saying those are not the same hands.  That may or may not be the case but it is certainly the case that there's a huge discrepancy in the video itself:

iPhone 6 BendGate analysisAs you can see, the phone he is bending "live" at 1:38 in the video says it's Tuesday, 23rd at 2:26 but then, 40 seconds later, the "same" phone says it's 1:58.  This is not an editing discrepancy since he had an UNBENT phone just seconds before 2:26 that
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Friday Follies – Will Today be the 13th Day Below S&P 2,000?

SPY 5 MINUTE12 failures so far.

12 trading days since the S&P first hit 2,000 (Aug 25th) in which we have failed to hold 2,000 for a full day.  Not one and, unless the Futures pop 10 points before we open, not today either.  On 10 of those days, we've had a late-day run-up on low volume that popped us over 2,000 and on 7 of those days, 2,000 held at the close but EVERY SINGLE DAY – it also failed to hold.  

Let's not forget that, during this time, we've had TRILLIONS of Dollars of additional stimulus pledged by Carney, Draghi, Kuroda and other minor Central Banksters and Yellen has certainly been as doveish as she could by (while still tapering our existing Trillion Dollar stimulus).  This is how our market behaves WITH Trillions of Dollars of cash being pumped into the Global economy – I wonder what will happen when it stops?  

Of course, maybe it won't stop but, if it doesn't, this chart will look even uglier.  This is a chart of our projected net annual interest payments on our debt in 10 years.  That's $880 BILLION Dollars each year, just in interest payments, up $650Bn from the $233Bn we are spending now.  

That's WITHOUT additional stimulus so I guess we can go for a bit more and make it an even Trillion, right?  These are what we used to call CONSEQENCES – back when we used to care about such things.  The US is not the leader in debt issuance, not by a long shot.  Japan is 150% more in debt than we are and China has now doubled our debt to GDP ratio, after having been a creditor back in 2007 but now the undisputed king of stimulus spending.    

EWG WEEKLYEurope is also a mess.  As I said to our Members in an early-morning Alert:  Another thing the US Media is purposely ignoring is the 12.5% correction in Europe (example on Germany chart) since July that, so far, has bounced weakly (4-point drop on EWG has weak bounce at 28.8 and strong at 29.6) – failing exactly
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Which Way Wednesday – How Low Can We Go?

INDU DAILYWhat a fun market to play!  

Yesterday, in our Live Member Chat Room (you can subscribe here), at 11:13, in anticipation of a wierd day, I put up a bullish and a bearish trade idea for our Members.  The cool thing is, both sides won!  Our two trade ideas (which we went over in our Live Webcast at 1pm) were:

If you want to play for an AAPL pop this afternoon, the QQQ weekly $100 calls are just .40 and QQQ topped out at $100.33 yesterday.  Figure AAPL pops 2.5% and that pops the Nas and QQQ 0.5% so $100.50 + premium could be good for 50% if AAPL gets a good reaction – if not, it's probably going to lose less than a direct play on AAPL would. 

TZA/Sn0 – Well TZA is only at $14.50 so the spread is half in the money at net $1.25 so it still has good upside if you add to it but I'd rather get the Jan $15/20 bull call spread at $1 as that gives you more time and more upside – if your TZA hedge goes in the money.  That way, you can take $2 off the table on the Oct spread and know you still have plenty of upside if TZA keeps going up on you and also less downside exposure if it flips the other way.  

When our 1pm Webinar started (at the same time Apple's conference started), the QQQ calls were just 0.42 and still playable and, as you can see on the chart, we even had a dip down to 0.30 briefly but that line held and we then jumped 100% back to 0.60 and then on to 0.72 before dropping back to 0.60, where we took our expected 50% gains and ran.  

If you missed our Webcast yesterday, you should check out the replay because we discussed WHY we made that particular pick and HOW we selected it – very educational!  That's because, at Philstockworld, our goal is to TEACH you to be a great trader – not just give you great trades.  


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Testy Tuesday – Apple Will Give the S&P a Pass or Fail

iWatchToday is the day.

There’s a lot riding on Apple’s massive iPhone 6 and iWatch event. Since the first iPad in 2010, the big question on everyone’s mind has been “what comes next?” Apple updates its lineup on a fairly predictable schedule, but products that push the company into entirely new categories have been few and far between.

That hasn’t hurt Apple financially by any stretch; in fact, it continues to make more on each device it sells than just about anyone. Still, a constant stream of promises from Apple’s top execs have drawn out the idea that something big is just around the corner.  That something big is very likely making its debut at Apple’s event next Tuesday, which kicks off at 1pm EST / 10am PST and we'll be covering it live today during our Live Trading Webinar (1pm EST).

iPhone 6On top of the rumor pile are expectations for:

  1. Bigger IPhones (to go after Samsung market share) + 10%
  2. NFC and Mobile Payments (transaction revenues) + 20%
  3. iOS8 (pushing iCloud) + 5%
  4. iWatch (new product) + 20%
  5. Apple TV (home integration) + 10%

So those are the most likely announcements and they have the POTENTIAL (if all goes well) to add 65% to AAPL's already massive market cap.  Just enough, in fact, to make AAPL the world's first $1Tn company in 2016.  We're already playing AAPL bullish in two of our PSW Portfolios but we have been since they were $450 ($64 post-split) and we're already up 50% (AAPL was our Stock of the Year selection), so we hedged a bit at $105.  

NFCThe question for us is – do we remove those hedges in anticipation of AAPL's 2 consecutive 30% annual runs that we are predicting but, with AAPL already up 25% this year at $100 and having already been rejected at 30% ($105), we're keeping our partial cover – at least until we see the public's reaction to the new product line

While it could be argued that a lot of good news is priced in, I think NFC/Mobile Payments is being completely missed along…
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Flip Flopin’ Thursday – Argentina Makes Us All Cry

I warned you about Argentina! 

We discussed them way back in December as they faked their own GDP data, that it was nothing more than window-dressing to keep them from LOOKING like they were in default – even though they were clearly heading that way.  

So it should come as no surprise that, as the deadline finally comes, there is no surprising rescue for the World's 26th largest economy ($477Bn vs $499Bn for Norway, $394Bn for Austria, $385Bn for Thailand and $248Bn for Greece).  Since it's not a surprise, we took the opportunity this morning to go long in the Futures, as the 1% dip around 4am seemed overdone.  I sent out a special Alert to all of our Members, saying:

Still, I like /TF for a bullish over the 1,130 line (testing now) and /YM at 16,700 and /ES 1,950 for bounces but VERY TIGHT STOPS if any of them fail.

NDX WEEKLYFortunately, they did not fail and already (8am) we have /TF 1,135 (up $500 per contract), /YM 16,732 (up $160 per contract) and /ES 1,955 (up $250 per contract) and our Egg McMuffins are paid for and those trades are now off the table (tight stops at least), as we expect more selling at the open!  

It's nice to play the Futures to offset bearish bets, like the SQQQ (ultra-short Nasdaq) trade we discussed in yesterday's morning post and the QQQ weekly $96 puts we added for .22 in yesterday's live Member Chat ahead of the Fed – as we expected the statement would disappoint.  Those should come out well this morning and going long on the Futures locks in those potential gains for us.  

Now, getting back to Argentina, ARGT is UP 32% this year and that is just silly so ARGT makes a nice short at $23.20 and you can, in fact, buy the Oct $23 puts for $1.45 and, if they give back that 32%, they'll be back to $19 and you'll have $4+ for a $2.55 gain (175%) – that's a fun way to play it.  

I discussed other ways to play the market yesterday on Money Talk,
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Which Way Wednesday – IBM/AAPL Deal Boost Markets

Did you make your $1,000 yesterday? 

You would have if you read yesterday's morning post (subscribe here), where we picked the Russell Futures (/TF) short at 1,160 saying: "If the Russell FAILS 1,160, we'll be happy to flip short for another ride down to 1,150."  As you can see, we had plenty of time to get our planned entry at 1,160 and, as we expected, Yellen's speech disappointed and the markets sold off a bit – easy money!  

RUT WEEKLYWe even flipped back to bullish in the afternoon and, at the beginning of our Live Webinar (1pm), we were able to demionstrate a very quick $250 profit taking the Russell Futures long off that same 1,150 line.  In fact, you can see the big volume spike that came with our live call right on the chart! 

This morning, news of a deal between AAPL and IBM has both companies showing 2% gains pre-market.  For IBM, that's $5 and that's adding 40 points to the Dow Futures (/YM) pre-market and for AAPL, that's $2 and AAPL is 20% of the Nasdaq so 20% of 2% is 0.4% added to the Nasdaq from AAPL alone pre-market plus a nice effect on the S&P from both of those heavyweight stocks.

Under the agreement, IBM's employees will provide on-site support and service of Apple products inside companies, similar to the AppleCare service that Apple sells to consumers.  IBM said it planned to make more than 100,000 employees available to the Apple initiative. It is a rare partnership for Apple, which historically has avoided such alliances.  

"This is just the beginning," said Ms. Rometty, citing a statistic that most smartphones inside companies are used only for email and calendar. She said the companies hope to create new, serious business applications.

The companies said Apple and IBM engineers are together developing more than 100 new apps for various industries. The first batch of apps is expected to be available in the fall when Apple releases the next version of its mobile software, iOS 8.  "Apple is not an
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Stock World Weekly

Here’s the newest: Stock World Weekly Newsletter. Comments welcome! – Ilene 

Jobs Cartoon

Archives here. 


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Steve Jobs To Take Medical Leave Of Absence

TIME, Techland, reports: Steve Jobs To Take Medical Leave Of Absence

Steve Jobs To Take Medical Leave Of Absence

JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

Courtesy of Doug Aamoth 

This is kind of an odd press release, but Businesswire has just put up something simply titled Apple Media Advisory that apparently contains the following e-mail from Apple CEO Steve Jobs to all Apple employees:

"Team,

At my request, the board of directors has granted me a medical leave of absence so I can focus on my health. I will continue as CEO and be involved in major strategic decisions for the company.

I have asked Tim Cook to be responsible for all of Apple’s day to day operations. I have great confidence that Tim and the rest of the executive management team will do a terrific job executing the exciting plans we have in place for 2011.

I love Apple so much and hope to be back as soon as I can. In the meantime, my family and I would deeply appreciate respect for our privacy.

Steve"

Jobs has been no stranger to medical ailments in the past. You may recall that he underwent a liver transplant back in 2009 as part of a six-month leave of absence to treat pancreatic cancer. We’ll keep an eye on this story and update it accordingly.


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Goldman’s $430 Target, Screaming Buy On Apple At Its All Time High Is In Direct Contravention To Reggie Middleton’s Logic – Who’s Right? Well, Who Has Been More Right In The Past?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton, posted at Zero Hedge and originally posted at Reggie’s BoomBustBlog

368322 09: A car passes by the sign in front of the Apple offices Computer April 21, 2000 in Cupertino, CA. The company is one of many computer technology corporations situated in Silicon Valley. (Photo by David McNew/ Newsmakers).

Goldman has recently issued a strong buy recommendation on Apple, offering a $430 price target. I have been on record many times stating that Apples will be facing the toughest competition of its existence since Microsoft nearly put them out of business. This, of course, appears to be in direct contravention to the Goldman Sachs call which just happened to come out the day Apple hits its all time high. Being that Apple has more than its fair share of fans who ignore common sense, this is enough to set the stock on fire. The question still remains though, “Is Goldman right?” Goldman very well could be right, but not for the reasons most retail investors believe. Despite overwhelming evidence plus plain old history to the contrary, many investors and mainstream media outlets still take the sell side of Wall Street at their word. Sell side analysts are marketing arms for the brokerage sales force, the investment banking sales force and the traders who move inventory in and out of their respective banks. What they are not are wealth and strategy advisers for retail and institutional investors. Their historical performance clearly illustrates this, thus their is not need to take this entrepreneurial investor and blogger’s word for it. Well, for those of you who either don’t know of me or don’t know of Goldman, here’s a quick recap of Reggie Middleton vs. Goldman Sachs:

Who was more accurate concerning Google? Google’s 3rd Quarter Operating Results: The Foregone Conclusion That Was Amazingly Unanticipated by the Street!!! Monday, November 8th, 2010

Who was more accurate concerning Lehman Brothers, the Ivy league, ivory tower boys doing God’s work or that blogger with the smart ass mouth from Brooklyn?

Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.

image006.png

As a matter of fact, who was more accurate during the ENTIRE Asset Securitization and Credit Crisis of the last three years?  We believe Reggie Middleton and his team at the BoomBust bests ALL of Wall Street’s sell side research:…
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ARe You ReaDY To ReMeMBeR…Today for the Rest of Your Life?

ARe You ReaDY To ReMeMBeR…Today for the Rest of Your Life? 

Courtesy of William Banzai7Zero Hedge 

A 

Apple is apparently ready to make another big announcement today. This will supposedly be yet another day that we will never forget.

This got me thinking about how many days there have been in my life so far that I will really never forget.

I vaguely remember being born. Lots of bright lights. I remember getting my first bicycle. I can remember a particular summer vacation day in New Hampshire when I was about 5 years old. I remember exactly where I was when JFK was assassinated. I don’t remember the Martin Luther King or Bobby Kennedy assassinations very well. I remember seeing Jimi Hendrix live in NYC. I remember some other important days like my high school and college graduations, the days my kids were born, the day I was married…and divorced. I remember 9/11 very well, I remember the day AIG claimed they had absolutely no exposure to subprime risk and I remember the September day Lehman tanked. I remember the day Paulsen and Bernanke said we were all doomed and I remember the day Obama was elected…

What could Apple possibly be planning that we will never forget?

Can it be this?

SIT 

or this?

AAPL2

How about this…

JOB

or maybe even this…

JOB2

or this…

Job3

All of the above would probably excite me more than an Beatles/Apple music deal with iTunes or an announcement concerning live streaming iTunes. But I am not quite sure I would remember any of it for the rest of my life.

Here, however, is an event I am pretty sure I would remember at least until the next AAPL quarterly announcement…

FIGHT CLUB

AAPL Fight Club 2010

 

I remember the last time I heard this type of extraordinary claim coming from a Silicon Valley darling…

Cisco

But I can’t remember what it was that they announced.

AAPL…10:00 AM EST today…

"The easiest way to attract a crowd is to let it be known that at a given time and a given place someone is going to attempt something that in the event of failure will mean sudden death."--Harry Houdini

 

UPDATE

APPLES

 


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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named... Was Just Named

Europe: The ONE Economic Comparison That Must Not Be Named... Was Just Named

The Continent is now teetering on the edge of a "Japan-style" deflation. Here's our take on it.

By Elliott Wave International

It's happened. The one economic comparison Europe has dreaded more than any other; the name that's akin to Lord Voldemort for investors has been uttered: "deflation."

And it's not just "deflation." You can still spin that term in a positive light if you get creative enough. Say, for example,

"Fa...



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Zero Hedge

CDC Confirms First Ebola Case Diagnosed In The US

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

As experts (as opposed to President Obama) had warned, the probability of Ebola coming to the US is around 20% by year-end. So it shoould not be a total surprise that:

  • *CDC CONFIRMS FIRST EBOLA CASE DIAGNOSED IN THE UNITED STATES
  • *EBOLA PATIENT IS IN DALLAS HOSPITAL, NEWS 8 REPORTS

CDC will hold a press conference at 530ET. This perhaps explains why CDC was "taking pre...



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Chart School

"Deflationary" Ball Game?

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

Well October is almost here and it's time for the baseball post season to start today. Speaking of baseball, is a "New Deflationary Ball Game" starting in a variety of assets?

This 5-pack reflects that a variety of long-term support and resistance line breaks are taking place.


Click for a larger image

The U.S. Dollar (upper left) is pushing above a 9-year resistance line recently. At the same time the TR commodity index, Gold,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

VIX Call Spreads Trade

The CBOE Vix Index topped 17.0 and the highest level since early-August on Monday morning amid declines in U.S. equities to start the trading week. The volatility index is off its earlier highs to trade 5.0% higher on the session at 15.65 as of 11:30 am ET. Options volume on the VIX is hovering near 360,000 contracts, or just more than 50% of the average daily reading of around 660,000 contracts. Calls are far more active than put options, as evidenced by the call/put ratio up above 4.2 in morning trading, perhaps as some traders position for volatility to stick around.

Large call spreads traded on the VIX today caught our attention as one big optio...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Stocks fight off predictable weakness, but expect more downside

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Yes, the market showed significant weakness last week for the first time in quite a while. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved triple digits each day. But it was all quite predictable, as I suggested in last week's article, and certainly nothing to worry about. Now the market appears to be poised for a modest technical rebound, and longer term, U.S. equities should be in good shape for a year-end rally. However, I still believe more downside is in order before any new highs are challenged. Moreover, market breadth is important for a sustained bull run, so the challenge for investors will be to put together broader bullish conviction, including the small caps.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 29th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Market Shadows

Ebola vs. Us

Ebola vs. Us

By Ilene 

Ebola is spreading too quickly for Ebola-vaccine makers to conduct typical studies of safety and efficacy on experimental vaccines. Instead, vaccines will be tested for basic safety, but then deployed with protocols devised now in order to test for efficacy essentially on the field. Testing has to be expedited because the situation in West Africa gets worse every day while there are no approved vaccines or other treatments.

The chart below is from a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine showing estimates of the virus's trajectory projecting out to November 1, 2014. If current trends continue...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

The latest issue of Stock World Weekly is now available. Please sign in with your PSW user name and password. Or simply take a free trial to try out our weekly newsletter. 

...

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Promotions

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When you register for the webinar, you’ll also get instant access to following trading videos:

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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

Making Sense of Bitcoin

By James Black at International Man

Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.

Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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