by Phil Davis - July 31st, 2014 8:05 am
I warned you about Argentina!
We discussed them way back in December as they faked their own GDP data, that it was nothing more than window-dressing to keep them from LOOKING like they were in default – even though they were clearly heading that way.
So it should come as no surprise that, as the deadline finally comes, there is no surprising rescue for the World's 26th largest economy ($477Bn vs $499Bn for Norway, $394Bn for Austria, $385Bn for Thailand and $248Bn for Greece). Since it's not a surprise, we took the opportunity this morning to go long in the Futures, as the 1% dip around 4am seemed overdone. I sent out a special Alert to all of our Members, saying:
Still, I like /TF for a bullish over the 1,130 line (testing now) and /YM at 16,700 and /ES 1,950 for bounces but VERY TIGHT STOPS if any of them fail.
Fortunately, they did not fail and already (8am) we have /TF 1,135 (up $500 per contract), /YM 16,732 (up $160 per contract) and /ES 1,955 (up $250 per contract) and our Egg McMuffins are paid for and those trades are now off the table (tight stops at least), as we expect more selling at the open!
It's nice to play the Futures to offset bearish bets, like the SQQQ (ultra-short Nasdaq) trade we discussed in yesterday's morning post and the QQQ weekly $96 puts we added for .22 in yesterday's live Member Chat ahead of the Fed – as we expected the statement would disappoint. Those should come out well this morning and going long on the Futures locks in those potential gains for us.
Now, getting back to Argentina, ARGT is UP 32% this year and that is just silly so ARGT makes a nice short at $23.20 and you can, in fact, buy the Oct $23 puts for $1.45 and, if they give back that 32%, they'll be back to $19 and you'll have $4+ for a $2.55 gain (175%) – that's a fun way to play it.
by Phil Davis - July 16th, 2014 7:21 am
Did you make your $1,000 yesterday?
You would have if you read yesterday's morning post (subscribe here), where we picked the Russell Futures (/TF) short at 1,160 saying: "If the Russell FAILS 1,160, we'll be happy to flip short for another ride down to 1,150." As you can see, we had plenty of time to get our planned entry at 1,160 and, as we expected, Yellen's speech disappointed and the markets sold off a bit – easy money!
We even flipped back to bullish in the afternoon and, at the beginning of our Live Webinar (1pm), we were able to demionstrate a very quick $250 profit taking the Russell Futures long off that same 1,150 line. In fact, you can see the big volume spike that came with our live call right on the chart!
This morning, news of a deal between AAPL and IBM has both companies showing 2% gains pre-market. For IBM, that's $5 and that's adding 40 points to the Dow Futures (/YM) pre-market and for AAPL, that's $2 and AAPL is 20% of the Nasdaq so 20% of 2% is 0.4% added to the Nasdaq from AAPL alone pre-market plus a nice effect on the S&P from both of those heavyweight stocks.
Under the agreement, IBM's employees will provide on-site support and service of Apple products inside companies, similar to the AppleCare service that Apple sells to consumers. IBM said it planned to make more than 100,000 employees available to the Apple initiative. It is a rare partnership for Apple, which historically has avoided such alliances.
"This is just the beginning," said Ms. Rometty, citing a statistic that most smartphones inside companies are used only for email and calendar. She said the companies hope to create new, serious business applications.
The companies said Apple and IBM engineers are together developing more than 100 new apps for various industries. The first batch of apps is expected to be available in the fall when Apple releases the next version of its mobile software, iOS 8. "Apple is not an…
by ilene - January 23rd, 2011 3:20 pm
by ilene - January 17th, 2011 5:51 pm
JUSTIN SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES
Courtesy of Doug Aamoth
This is kind of an odd press release, but Businesswire has just put up something simply titled Apple Media Advisory that apparently contains the following e-mail from Apple CEO Steve Jobs to all Apple employees:
At my request, the board of directors has granted me a medical leave of absence so I can focus on my health. I will continue as CEO and be involved in major strategic decisions for the company.
I have asked Tim Cook to be responsible for all of Apple’s day to day operations. I have great confidence that Tim and the rest of the executive management team will do a terrific job executing the exciting plans we have in place for 2011.
I love Apple so much and hope to be back as soon as I can. In the meantime, my family and I would deeply appreciate respect for our privacy.
Jobs has been no stranger to medical ailments in the past. You may recall that he underwent a liver transplant back in 2009 as part of a six-month leave of absence to treat pancreatic cancer. We’ll keep an eye on this story and update it accordingly.
Goldman’s $430 Target, Screaming Buy On Apple At Its All Time High Is In Direct Contravention To Reggie Middleton’s Logic – Who’s Right? Well, Who Has Been More Right In The Past?
by ilene - December 14th, 2010 1:14 pm
Goldman has recently issued a strong buy recommendation on Apple, offering a $430 price target. I have been on record many times stating that Apples will be facing the toughest competition of its existence since Microsoft nearly put them out of business. This, of course, appears to be in direct contravention to the Goldman Sachs call which just happened to come out the day Apple hits its all time high. Being that Apple has more than its fair share of fans who ignore common sense, this is enough to set the stock on fire. The question still remains though, “Is Goldman right?” Goldman very well could be right, but not for the reasons most retail investors believe. Despite overwhelming evidence plus plain old history to the contrary, many investors and mainstream media outlets still take the sell side of Wall Street at their word. Sell side analysts are marketing arms for the brokerage sales force, the investment banking sales force and the traders who move inventory in and out of their respective banks. What they are not are wealth and strategy advisers for retail and institutional investors. Their historical performance clearly illustrates this, thus their is not need to take this entrepreneurial investor and blogger’s word for it. Well, for those of you who either don’t know of me or don’t know of Goldman, here’s a quick recap of Reggie Middleton vs. Goldman Sachs:
Who was more accurate concerning Google? Google’s 3rd Quarter Operating Results: The Foregone Conclusion That Was Amazingly Unanticipated by the Street!!! Monday, November 8th, 2010
Who was more accurate concerning Lehman Brothers, the Ivy league, ivory tower boys doing God’s work or that blogger with the smart ass mouth from Brooklyn?
Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.
As a matter of fact, who was more accurate during the ENTIRE Asset Securitization and Credit Crisis of the last three years? We believe Reggie Middleton and his team at the BoomBust bests ALL of Wall Street’s sell side research:…
by ilene - November 16th, 2010 1:39 pm
Apple is apparently ready to make another big announcement today. This will supposedly be yet another day that we will never forget.
This got me thinking about how many days there have been in my life so far that I will really never forget.
I vaguely remember being born. Lots of bright lights. I remember getting my first bicycle. I can remember a particular summer vacation day in New Hampshire when I was about 5 years old. I remember exactly where I was when JFK was assassinated. I don’t remember the Martin Luther King or Bobby Kennedy assassinations very well. I remember seeing Jimi Hendrix live in NYC. I remember some other important days like my high school and college graduations, the days my kids were born, the day I was married…and divorced. I remember 9/11 very well, I remember the day AIG claimed they had absolutely no exposure to subprime risk and I remember the September day Lehman tanked. I remember the day Paulsen and Bernanke said we were all doomed and I remember the day Obama was elected…
What could Apple possibly be planning that we will never forget?
Can it be this?
How about this…
or maybe even this…
All of the above would probably excite me more than an Beatles/Apple music deal with iTunes or an announcement concerning live streaming iTunes. But I am not quite sure I would remember any of it for the rest of my life.
Here, however, is an event I am pretty sure I would remember at least until the next AAPL quarterly announcement…
AAPL Fight Club 2010
I remember the last time I heard this type of extraordinary claim coming from a Silicon Valley darling…
But I can’t remember what it was that they announced.
AAPL…10:00 AM EST today…
"The easiest way to attract a crowd is to let it be known that at a given time and a given place someone is going to attempt something that in the event of failure will mean sudden death."--Harry Houdini
by ilene - July 20th, 2010 7:27 pm
Well, the after-hours news paints a pretty-much perfect view of the economy. Most earnings continue to disappoint a little: Yahoo, VMWare, etc., all are basically ho-hum.
The exception: Apple, which is going completely bezerk, and is up 3.7% after hours, after killing it on revenues.
Apple’s strong performance is enough to bring the whole market up, but not because it represents anything other than the fact that the company is killing it.
by ilene - July 13th, 2010 8:09 pm
Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker
It’s official. Consumer Reports’ engineers have just completed testing the iPhone 4, and have confirmed that there is a problem with its reception. When your finger or hand touches a spot on the phone’s lower left side—an easy thing, especially for lefties—the signal can significantly degrade enough to cause you to lose your connection altogether if you’re in an area with a weak signal. Due to this problem, we can’t recommend the iPhone 4.
That’s Consumer Reports, incidentally, which put the phone in an RF-isolated room to perform their tests along with a base-station emulator.
Oops – that’s about as close to proof as you’re going to find. In an RF-quiet environment it’s pretty easy to prove your case, and it appears that CR did so.
The tests also indicate that AT&T’s network might not be the primary suspect in the iPhone 4′s much-reported signal woes.
I have never been impressed with the iPhone (any generation) in terms of RF. Ever. It has always been a "form before function" device from my perspective, all the way back to the original units. Then again I’m spoiled – the best RF-performing GSM phone I’ve ever used was a Nokia 3395. I may still have one laying around here somewhere, and all of my old Nokias (including a 6610 which was nearly as good) still work just fine. Old, yes, but one thing Nokia does know how to do is design and build an RF section.
Incidentally, buying devices that work before selecting them for "sex appeal" may be why I’ve never had a material problem with the "can you hear me?" BS that so many suffer with when it comes to cellphones. I guess my view is that a cellphone is for communicating rather than trying to shag some hot chick at the local bar by flashing my "bling."
This is a common flaw for consumer devices – be sexy rather than be smart – or good. Of course sex sells, and so the more "sexy" you can make something look the better it sells, and as long as you remain within the "acceptable" functionality envelope you don’t get hurt – too badly. Witness Motorola, which had the "hot" phone for a long time…
by Chart School - July 13th, 2010 4:00 pm
Courtesy of Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade
Apple Inc (AAPL) frequently receives a great deal of media attention on their recent iPhone and iPad gadgets.
However, their stock has been stagnating in a trading range between$240 and $270 since May.
There is a critical support area – particularly from the weekly chart – that traders should be keenly aware of, so let’s see these levels and the bigger picture with Apple’s stock.
Thus, Apple bulls have their alerts set at the $265 level as the upside breakout level to punch through.
The lower boundary actually is rising, as seen in the ascending trendline, which will make more sense as you view the weekly chart.
Volume has trailed lower during the consolidation phase, but given that it’s summer and stocks in general exhibit lower participation/volume during a trading range, this is nothing to be concerned with yet.
Remember that in a trading range, moving averages matter less, so look to the trendlines as more important indicators.
An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Oppurtunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses
by ilene - July 13th, 2010 3:26 pm
An iPhone 4 Recall Will Hurt Apple More By Opening Additional Opportunity for Android Devices Than Increased Expenses
Apple has had a hell of a time with what is arguably its most important product release since the initial iPhone in 2007. The handsets have been plagued with spotty screens, combustible USB ports, signal strength measurement inconsistencies, and the most damaging of the issues – an ill-conceived antenna design that causes attenuation when held from the lower left had corner. Steve Jobs did the Blankfein (Goldman Sachs CEO, stating that the Wall Street bank was doing God’s work) imitation by opening his mouth when he shouldn’t have and said that users were “hold the phone the wrong way”. Not only that, but Consumer Reports just came out with a report stating that they can not recommend the buying of an iPhone until the antenna situation has been rectified, prompting speculation that Apple will be forced to recall millions of phones.
As a matter of fact, the review was rather poignant:
“If you want an iPhone that works well without a masking-tape fix, we continue to recommend an older model, the 3G S.”
As evidence of the danger of relying on “lifestyle” marketing (see An Introduction to How Apple Apple Will Compete With the Google/Android Onslaught)…
It is very easy to fall out of favor with the trendy crowd. While I doubt very seriously that Apple is in danger of doing this anytime soon, a massive recall will open the door for devices which are technically much more capable, flexible and open than the iPhone, ex. the Android powered HTC and Samsung devices. Basically, the danger to Apple here is not the expense of a recall, but the loss of mindshare and potential widening of the opening for some very capable competition – an opening that did not have to be there!
Don’t believe me, click the link to the consumer reports article and peruse the comment section…