by Option Review - August 23rd, 2013 1:33 pm
Today’s tickers: FB & ARO
by Option Review - March 6th, 2013 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRIP, SWHC & ARO
by Option Review - November 14th, 2012 1:23 pm
Today’s tickers: ARO, WYNN & PETM
ARO - Aeropostale, Inc. – Shares in teen retailer, Aeropostale, Inc., are up 6.2% this morning at $13.87 in sympathy with Abercrombie & Fitch after that company raised its guidance for full-year earnings and reported better-than-expected third-quarter results before the opening bell on Wednesday. Aeropostale, which acquired online women’s apparel and shoe retailer GoJane.com yesterday, is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after the close of trading on November 29th. ARO call options are buzzing with activity today, with some traders adjusting existing positions, while others take profits and establish bullish stances on the stock ahead of earnings in two weeks. One strategist responsible for the purchase of approximately 2,000 Nov. $14 strike calls for a premium of $0.10 apiece back on October 31st appears to be selling the calls today for three times that amount, or $0.30 in premium per option contract. Meanwhile, the purchase of more than 2,000 upside calls out at the Dec. $14 strike for a premium of $1.00 apiece looks for shares in ARO to extend gains in the near term. The trader or traders picking up the Dec. $14 strike calls may profit at expiration next month if shares in Aeropostale rally another 8% to surpass the average breakeven price of $15.00 at expiration. Call buying spread to the Dec. $15 and $16 strikes as well, with more than 500 contracts purchased at each strike earlier in the trading session. Interest in the Dec. $14, $15 and $16 strike calls today adds to positions established during the prior trading week.
WYNN - Wynn Resorts Ltd. – Trading traffic in call options on casino resort operator, Wynn Resorts Ltd., this morning suggests one strategist is positioning for shares in the name to rally substantially by year end. Shares in Wynn Resorts are down 1.2% this morning to stand at $105.67 as of 11:50 a.m. ET. The most active contracts on WYNN by volume so far today are the…
by Option Review - October 2nd, 2012 12:56 pm
Today’s tickers: EXPR, ARO & ARUN
EXPR - Express, Inc. – Specialty retailer Express, Inc.’s shares are getting hammered today, down more than 20% at $11.90 as of 11:10 a.m. in New York, after the company lowered its third-quarter earnings forecast and said same-store sales will decline in the mid-single digit range. Express, Inc. shares, publicly traded since the company’s May 2010 IPO, have not yet managed to catch a bid in today’s session as the stock continues to hit fresh record lows. Options traders betting shares in the name will rebound by the start of the new calendar year snapped up January 2013 expiry call options this morning. Contrarian bets are heaviest at the Jan. 2013 $15 strike where approximately 975 calls were purchased at a premium of $0.45 apiece. Call buyers may profit at expiration next year in the event that EXPR shares jump 30% over the current price of $11.90 to top the effective breakeven point at $15.45. Getting long the Jan. 2013 $15 call has been painful for one or more options traders who appear to have purchased at least 550 of the contracts back on September 4th for a premium of $2.20 per contract. The value of the call options has collapsed in the four weeks since then, down nearly 90% so far to the current asking price of $0.30 apiece.
ARO - Aeropostale, Inc.– Shares in teen retailer, Aeropostale, Inc., are moving lower this morning, perhaps in sympathy with Express, Inc., after the specialty retailer cut its third quarter profit forecast. ARO shares are currently down 2.3% at $13.05 as of 11:00 a.m. ET, and it looks like some options traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to extend losses in the near term. Trading traffic in Aeropostale options is heaviest in the Oct. $13 strike put where more than 8,000 contracts have changed hands versus open interest of 1,239 positions. It looks like most of the…
by Option Review - June 26th, 2012 4:16 pm
Today’s tickers: DOW, CVH & ARO
DOW - Dow Chemical Co. – Bearish trading in DOW options this morning suggests some traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to decline further this summer. Shares in Dow Chemical fell 1.6% to $31.73 on Tuesday following a downgrade to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ at JPMorgan. Upwards of 4,500 puts changed hands at the Aug. $31 strike in the first half of the trading session against open interest of 1,413 contracts. It looks like most of the puts were purchased at a premium of $1.33 apiece, including a large block of 1,568 contracts that traded within minutes of the opening bell this morning. Put buyers may be taking outright bearish positions on the name or hedging long positions in the underlying shares ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report on July 26th. Profits – or downside protection – kick in on the long put positions should shares in the manufacturer of plastic materials and chemicals slide 6.5% to breach the effective breakeven price of $29.67 by August expiration.
CVH - Coventry Health Care, Inc. – The managed care company popped up on our scanners this morning after a large bearish spread was initiated in the front month options today ahead of a decision from the Supreme Court on the 2010 health care law. Shares in Coventry Health Care are off their lows of the session but remain in negative territory, down 0.60% at $33.33 as of 12:15 p.m. in New York. A large 5,000-lot July $28/$32 put spread appears to have been purchased for a premium of $0.95 per contract. The position, rather sizable next to overall open interest on the stock of 32,696 contracts, could be a hedge to protect a long position in the stock or an outright bearish stance on the near term performance of the shares. The spread is profitable – or yields downside protection – in the event that Coventry’s shares decline…
by Option Review - May 18th, 2011 4:05 pm
Today’s tickers: ARO, HSY, QLGC & HEK
ARO - Aeropostale, Inc. – Investors are initiating bullish positions on the teen retailer ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report on Thursday after the close. Shares in Aeropostale are up 1.25% at $21.41 as of 11:50am, rallying in sympathy with teen apparel company Abercrombie & Fitch Co. following ANF’s better-than-expected earnings report. One options strategist expecting Aeropostale’s shares to extend gains over the next few months sold 9,900 puts at the July $19 strike for a premium of $0.40 each, and purchased the same number of calls up at the higher July $23 strike at a premium of $0.75 apiece. Net premium paid to initiate the bullish play amounts to $0.35 per contract. The trader responsible for the transaction profits at expiration as long as shares in ARO surge 9.1% over the current price of $21.41 to exceed the effective breakeven price of $23.35. Of course, the investor could unravel the position ahead of expiration. He could exit the trade profitably should some catalyst – such as an earnings surprise to the upside – send shares and call premium higher, and put premium lower. The short stance in put options suggests the trader is willing to have shares put to him at $19.00 should the puts land in-the-money at expiration. While the investor runs the risk of having the stock put to him at expiration, it seems the financing received to reduce the cost of buying the calls is worth this risk as ARO’s shares have not traded beneath $19.00 since April 2009. Meanwhile, other bullish players engaged in plain-vanilla call buying, picking up some 3,200 calls at the July $26 strike for an average premium of $0.20 per contract. Call buyers make money if shares in Aeropostale jump 22.4% to top the average breakeven price of $26.20 at expiration in July. The clothing company’s shares were up above $26.20 as recently as April 21, 2011.…
by Phil Davis - January 7th, 2010 7:50 am
Beware the data!
The first thing you will hear this morning is that COST had a 9% rise in sales, with International sales up a whopping 25%. What you are less likely to hear is that COST sells a lot of gasoline, which has doubled in price since last December and, excluding inflation in gas prices, same-store sales are up just 2%, a tremendous miss of the 7.9% expected. Out of the 25% increase in International sales, 15% is attributable to currency exchange so up 10% is the real number.
This is nothing against Costco, I like that company, but it’s a caution sign to look carefully at the retail numbers we’re going to be seeing today as there are several outside factors that are skewing the results drastically – to the point where the numbers, whether good or bad, are almost meaningless. It’s also good to keep in mind that we are comping sales to the WORST CHRISTMAS EVER so anything less than double digit gains over last year is still pretty sad.
Mish did a good job yesterday of pointing out the statistical nonsense known as the Non-Farm Payroll Report, where "Birth/Death" model revisions that were as much as 356,000 a month last year (January) make the data beyond useless for any kind of serious analysis. Nonetheless, analyze it they will and if we manage to avoid posting our 24th CONSECUTIVE month of losses, surely they will be pouring champagne on CNBC and acting like Capitalism has once again triumphed over evil (evil being people without money who still want to live with dignity).
Speaking of dignity – if you know 100 people in Nevada then, statistically, 3 of them went bankrupt this year, up 61% from last year as our economy "recovers". In Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, just 2 of your 100 friends filed while California, surprisingly "only" had one in 66 households file for bankruptcy so you can go almost a whole day and not run into someone who lost everything in California – too bad the same can’t be said for the State overall! California needs $21Bn over the next 18 months to keep the lights on. This doesn’t seem so bad, GMAC is losing $13Bn this quarter and we’re bailing them out but if we bail out CA then NY, NJ and 47 other states will come knocking to the tune…
by Option Review - December 3rd, 2009 4:12 pm
Today’s tickers: GLD, MTG, ACN, BAC, HUN, PSS, ARO, HUN, APWR & FDO
GLD – SPDR Gold Trust ETF – Surprise, surprise…shares of the gold exchange-traded fund reached another record high by climbing up to $119.42 today. We observed one investor initiate a contrarian play in the January 2010 contract. The trader established a bearish risk reversal by selling 4,000 calls at the January 120 strike for 3.65 apiece, spread against the purchase of 4,000 puts at the same strike for 4.60 each. The net cost of the spread amounts to 95 cents per contract. The trader, if long shares of the underlying, enacted downside protection to hedge against potential declines in the price of gold through expiration in January. Perhaps this investor believes gold has peaked, at least as far as the next couple of months are concerned. In contrast, longer-term trading in the September contract was decidedly bullish. The trader sold 5,750 puts at the September 117 strike for 9.35 apiece in order to finance the purchase of the same number of calls at the higher September 140 strike for an average premium of 5.88 each. The investor banks a net credit of 3.47 per contract on the transaction, which he retains in full as long as shares remain higher than $117.00 through expiration. Additional profits amass if shares jump 17% to surpass the $140-level by expiration in September.
MGT – MGIC Investments Corp. – Bullish investors populated MGIC Investments Corporation with various optimistic option strategies throughout the trading day. Shares surged 20% to $5.10 after its Wisconsin regulator waived minimum capital requirements for two years. This permits the company to continue selling coverage despite nine straight quarterly losses. Investor reacted by picking up nearly 5,000 calls at the now in-the-money December 5.0 strike for an average premium of 30 cents apiece. Call-buyers will profit if MTG’s shares surpass the breakeven price of $5.30 by expiration. Additional bullish transactions appeared in the January 2010 and March 2010 contracts. Optimistic individuals shed 3,000 puts at the January 5.0 strike for 60 cents premium apiece. Investors retain the premium received on the sale if shares remain above $5.00 through January’s expiration day. Put-sellers stand ready to have shares of the underlying stock put to them at an effective price of $4.40 per share if the puts land in-the-money. Finally, another chunk of 5,000 puts were sold at the March 5.0…