Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

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Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

- Jromeha

Newer member here, but just wanted to say thank you too. I've learned so much and I hope you'll be around for a long time helping us learn along the way.

- Where

As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges. Just closed out a July TZA 40/45 call spread today for a 271% gain in less than a month. I would have normally let that run but yesterday Phil commented to another member something to the effect that "you put down a $1 for a $5 upside, now that you are up 250% you have $2.5 in and you are hoping for a double." Just closed out a USO July $38 put that Phil suggested yesterday for a 49% one day gain. Thanks, Bob

- RJK

Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you! I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure. I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options. You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

- Redfern1

I read with great interest your statement the other day that the DX is unlikely to break 76 or there will be great hell to pay, torrential amounts of tears shed, and gnashing of dentures all over the world. Well. I have had several short DX contracts in the $78ish range during the last month and upon your two statements 1) don't be greedy, and 2) 76 could be a bottom, I yesterday put a buy GTC order to close my positions at 76 and for some inexplicable reason the DX spiked down after the close and now I can safely say that once again you have confirmed for me that you have been one of the best investment services I have yet to come across. Almost to the point that I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm completely wrong about my political stance as well. Almost. In any event, I wanted you to know that this has been my third execution based on your comments and recommendations that I have followed and this one has also worked to my advantage. My subscription fee has been more than justified for the next year and there's some left over to pay for my stay in Toronto this week, dinner at Joso's in the Yorkville section of town. If I smoked I'd have a Montecristo to salute you. Be well, stay well.

- Flipspiceland

Phil, I've got to give you props on the ICE spread play. Tremendous call! I jumped in on Friday when you made the recommendation and closed out today. Nice 57% return ($2,300) over a mere 3 trading days! This is why I dig your site!

- Samlawyer

Simply the best blogger with the greatest group of members a person could surround himself with on trading day. I've been trading for quite some time now and the insights & suggestions offered by Phil and the members keep me on a continuous learning cycle.

- DDay

Phil - I followed your great pick re F and sold short the 1011 2.50 puts (200 contracts) and paid for the next 10 years of membership fees…. Thanks!

- Gel1

Phil: I cleaned up today. A rather stark contrast to my untutored performance April/May 2009, after I had written to you to explain how wrong-headed your bearishness was. Many thanks. I ran into someone once who played on the Bulls with Jordan for quite a few years. He was asked what he had learned from playing with MJ for so long. He smiled and said "Give him the ball."

- Zeroxzero

thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….

- Kwan

Phil…..You have absolutely NAILED IT! This is not a bull market, nor is it a bear market. It is a Rangeish market, and it's going to stay that way for a long time (the latter is my prediction. I love the word. What I love more is the fact that I've found someone with some investing intelligence greater than mine who can assist me in playing this type of market. Your description today of how it's playing out is right on. I predict some media ‘guru' will steal your word and your description within the next few days and we'll all get to read about what ‘they' discovered about this market. Thanks Phil!

- Iflantheman

I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…

- Kwan

I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.

- KMisko

Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

- CanuckBob

Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!

- Ban2

Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!

- DCalrk41

Phil/BCS - Didn't realise they traded here. Should've known really. Thanks for the tip. managed to pick some up just before the close at a 15% discount to the UK closing price.

- DB

Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS, closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,

- RMM

Kudos on the POT puts! I studied the charts last night and you couldn't have hit the inflection points more perfectly. Since there are often many head fakes in the charts, that was very well done. I know they can't all work this well, but that was an extra unexpected bonus yesterday.

- Ocelli7

Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

- JWick1981

Phil: Closed out ZION with 49 % gain!

- RMM

Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien

Market manipulation…. One of the things I've gained from this site is the concept of market manipulation. I never thought it was so prevalent, but now I know it is. I actually consider its effect when I make trades. Several days ago, when AAPL was moving toward 220 I sold 210 calls. My reasoning was that they will probably pin this month at 210. They came in big time as the stock moved ever closer to 210. I agree with Phil's comment that one of the things we need to do is find out what they are manipulating, and how, and hitch a ride. They are doing this with several equities. I've actually seen one article describing several equities that were being manipulated to pin at expiration each month, and describing how it was done, and of course Phil has described it well. In some ways it's easier to figure this out than it is a ‘normal' market behavior, and thus easier to make money in certain equities.

- Iflantheman

Oxen (directly) and Wilkinson (indirectly) are making me a great day trader! Props to Andrew for another little nugget last night: HIG. $20 Dec calls paid 6% quickly this morning. And helloooo STJ - a few days, but nice pick nonetheless - esp with early cover premium.

- Dstillwe

I am an investor, not a trader. The information at Phil's World is top-notch and always relevant. It is great to see your website thriving.

- Prof

Its been a "perfect" month. Every stock I wrote calls against looks like it will be called away next week, every put I wrote will expire worthless. Thanks Phil, now I need some new buy/write candidates, or the new 100K portfolio….

- Barfinger

TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

- Gel1

Phil - I celebrate today, having reached my goal for the year, trading in sync with your education and guidance, of 1 million in profit. I learned a lot, achieved much, and am profoundly grateful. To be honest, when I set the goal I thought it was daunting, as I have for many years been an investor in equities but did very little with options. Learning and doing has for me been a blast! I reached my goal by following Phil's strategies - lots of Buy/Writes, covered calls on equities , naked put entries for income production. I did it with 2.5 mil and kept 600,000 in cash in case I got in trouble. I concentrated on stocks (many of my own choosing) that had decent dividends and wrote front month calls against (OTM) which has worked well in this market run. 25% of my gain is in dividends and premium selling, with the balance in appreciation.

- Gel1

I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.

- Kustomz

Great calls this week!

- SNS1

Posts Tagged ‘BBT’

Testy Tuesday Morning – The Spin Is In!

by Phil - August 18th, 2009 8:21 am

We did get our stick save yesterday – only it came at 7:45 pm!

That’s right, on pretty much no news at all and without any global markets open, the US futures all took off in synch at 7:45 last night and went up and up and up into Asia’s open. There was no particular news and Jim Cramer had just finished telling his viewers that the markets may be overbought. Cramer also is now targeting a "3-5% decline," which is amazingly the exact decline I predicted last week and he also swiped my BBT pick as his "find of the day." So good morning Jim, nice to have you back! We don’t mind Cramer stealing our buy picks because we have a full day advantage over his flock so welcome aboard suckers – er, fellow Cramer fans…

Anyway, so the after-hours markets were flat but the ubiquitous futures market took off as soon as all the retail traders had their trading accounts turned off for the night and you would have thought something huge was happening to watch the relentless, non-stop, 3-hour climb in the Dow, the Nasdaq, the S&P and even the Russell futures that led into the Asian open. Did this blatant manipulation of the indexes fool Asian investors? Of course it did! The Nikkei opened at 8pm EST and had gapped down to 10,200, exactly 4% off the high of 10,620 on Friday. As I said to members in yesterday’s chat, that 4% line is critical in the follow-through day on the 5% rule as it represents our expected bounce off 5%, so holding that line is still bullish.

Well, never let it be said that Mr. Stick doesn’t know how to paint a bullish picture and the Nikkei was rescued from failing that 4% line by the relentless futures buying between 8pm and 10:30, which coincided with 9pm to 11:30 on the Nikkei, which just so happens to be when they close for lunch. What happened at 11:30 Tokyo time? Well, suddenly everyone lost interest in the US futures and they fell ALL THE WAY BACK to where they started in just 60 minutes. Please Congress, whatever you do, don’t look into this nonsense – better to just sit there in your little offices and say "the market forces are too complicated for me to understand" and let 12 people control the world, that’s what America’s all about right?

So, where was…

Tags: BBT, C, CHINA, CPI, GS, Housing, JPM, PPI, Shanghai Composite

Join Member's Chat - 173 Comments Here »

Monday Market Melt-Down

by Phil - August 17th, 2009 7:33 am

Yee-haw!

We love the smell of pullback in the morning. It smells like – victory! After extensively reviewing our bearish positions in this week’s wrap up and after calling for cashing out our bull plays last week and after taking a whole bunch of short positions – I would have been in a very bad mood this morning had we gone up 150-points instead of down so forgive me for being pleased with myself.

Although we called the stick-save at Friday’s close, even when I predicted it at 12:40 I said that: "getting back to there would be fake, fake, fake and failing there would be very bearish going into the weekend." In my closing Alert to Members at 4:04 I said: "12:42 targets were: Dow 9,350, S&P 1,005, Nas 1,990, NYSE 6,540 and RUT 570. We got 9,321, 1,004, 1,985, 6,537 and 564 so let’s hear it for the 5% rule and Mr. Stick, who’s program is playing our tune. This was, of course fake, fake, fake, so we still expect our sell-off next week." See, this stuff isn’t too hard to follow – targets set at 12:42, targets failed at the close, stay short into the weekend…

Speaking of targets, our first downside targets, which we went over in last Wednesday morning’s post, should be tested this morning at Dow 9,100, S&P 980, Nasdaq 1,950, NYSE 6,400 and Russell 550. As that post was an extensive discussion of levels and ranges we expect and is still fresh, I won’t get back into into it here other than to say how mean you are for not using THIS LINK to get a free trial of the PSW REPORT (just 2 weeks left on summer offer) and then using THIS LINK to refer 2 friends and lock in your own discounts. We’re starting a new $100,000 Virtual Portfolio this weekend and only members will get those trade live and I’ll also be continuing the $5,000 virtual portfolio and it’s a great time to start following now that we are back to cash there.

While we are nowhere near as bullish as Cramer (seen here in Thursday making fun of us for being too cautious), we are also not perma-bears. A nice sell-off here is not only long overdue but it’s also healthy and, if we hold 80% of the move up since March, we’re going to be thrilled to go long with…

Tags: Baltic Dry Index, BBT, CHINA, CNB, Cramer, FXP, GDP, OIH, Trading Range, X

Join Member's Chat - 184 Comments Here »

Chinese ETF Options Hint of More Nerves Ahead

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Option Review - August 14th, 2009 5:04 pm

Today’s tickers: FXI, NUE, BBT & NTAP

FXI – Bearish options activity was observed on the China exchange-traded fund this morning amid a nearly 2.5% decline in shares to $40.78. Investors expecting further declines initiated bearish reversal plays on the ETF in the September contract. Approximately 10,000 calls were shed at the September 44 strike price for 80 cents apiece in order to partially finance the purchase of 10,000 put options at the now in-the-money September 41 strike for an average premium of 1.96 each. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 1.16. Thus, profits will begin to amass to the downside if shares fall beneath the breakeven point at $39.84 by expiration. Additional plain-vanilla put buying in the amount of 5,000 lots was seen at the September 41 strike for 1.96 per contract. Investors who did not fund their purchase of puts by selling calls will not start to profit unless the FXI declines at least 4% from the current price through the lower breakeven point at $39.04. Increase investor uncertainty regarding the future price of the fund is reflected by the 11% rise in option implied volatility today to a high of 41%. – iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund

NUE – The manufacturer of steel and steel products edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this morning after call activity was observed in the January 2010 contract. Shares of NUE have suffered a 2.5% decline to stand at $46.48. The bullish ratio call spread established by one investor suggests a recovery in the stock up to its current 52-week high of $53.46 or above by expiration. The spread involved the purchase of approximately 5,000 calls at the January 50 strike price for a premium of 3.70 apiece against the sale of 10,000 calls at the higher January 55 strike for 2.07 per contract. The trader receives a net credit on the transaction of about 44 cents and may bank additional gains if NUE rallies 8% higher to surpass the $50.00 level by expiration. Maximum potential profits of 5.00 (excluding the credit received) will be attained by the investor if shares surged to $55.00. The risk undertaken by the trader in this situation is that he is holding a short position in 5,000 calls. Potentially unlimited losses would begin to amass on the call options if the stock blows through the breakeven point to…

Tags: BBT, FXI, NTAP, NUE

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Market Montage

Whitney Houston Dead at 48

February 11th, 2012 8:20 pm

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Damn. Two (MJ and Whitney) of the big 4 of the 80s gone – Madonna and Prince remain. Probably the most well known Star Spangled Banner ever…

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund's holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog

...

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Zero Hedge

Europe: "The Flaw"

February 11th, 2012 8:05 pm

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

We have posted various extracts from this piece from Credit Suisse previously. We will post from it again, because, to loosely paraphrase Lewis Black, it bears reposting... especially in the context of the latest and greatest Greek "bailout" (of Europe's bankers), which incidentally, will achieve nothing and merely bring the country one step closer to a military coup and/or civil war.

The flaw

The market is essentially proceeding on the assumption, as we see it, that banks’ capital requirements can be met organically, through earnings and deleveraging. We ...

Phil's Favorites

It's Well Past Time for Plan Z

February 11th, 2012 6:46 pm

It's Well Past Time for Plan Z

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth

Mario Draghi captured the utter ineptitude of him and every other Eurocrat out there when he said the following at today’s press conference in response to a question about a Greek exit: “To have a Plan B means defeat already. I am confident that all the pieces of this will fall in the proper places.”

Most 5-year old children in pre-school have already been told not to believe that they can always win and that “winning isn’t everything”, but Draghi & Co. still refuse to consider the possibility of failure even as it is staring them in the face. What’s really disturbing is that the stakes here are obviously much, much higher than they are o...

Chart School

The Student Loan Debt Bomb

February 11th, 2012 5:35 pm

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

It's interesting to watch some of the terms bandied about in headline news. For example, the LA Times headline reads S&P says student loan debt could be next financial bubble.

Next? Could Be?

What with the word "next"? Also what's with the words "could be"? Without a doubt student loans are in a bubble and have been for many years. The source of the problem, as it always is with financial bubbles, is cheap money, loans to nearly anyone, and in the case of student loans, no way to discharge the debt, even in bankruptcy.

From the article:

"Student-loan debt has ballooned and m...

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 2/11/2012

February 11th, 2012 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....

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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's M&A Chatter for Friday February 10, 2012

February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:

Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty

The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.

Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.

...

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ETF Selector

ETFs Skid On Greece (VGK, EWG, FXE, DIA, SPY)

February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears

After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.

After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.

Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Option Review

True Religion Falls Apart At The Seams After Earnings

February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm

Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 6th, 2012

February 6th, 2012 9:02 am

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics

February 5th, 2012 5:19 am

NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."

...

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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 1/30/2012

January 30th, 2012 7:22 am

Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position. AA Money No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position. Last week P&L - 310.00 We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium! FAS Money Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though! Last week P&L - $4277.00 IWM Money A decent week in this virtual portfo...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Investing for 2012

January 18th, 2012 1:09 am

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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