BBY – Best Buy Co., Inc. – Weekly options changing hands on Best Buy this morning suggest some traders are looking for shares in the consumer electronics retailer to continue higher during the next few trading sessions. Shares in BBY, up better than 200% since this time last year, are trading 2.0% higher on the day at $41.36 as of midday in New York trading.
Fresh interest in upside call options expiring at the end of this week are active today, with the Dec 06 ’13 $42 strike options attracting the most volume. Around 1,900 of the $42 weekly calls have traded thus far in the session against open interest of 161 contracts. One strategist appears to have purchased around half of the volume at a premium of $0.56 each just before 11:00 a.m. EST this morning. The calls make money at expiration if shares in BBY rally another 2.9% over the current price of $41.36 to exceed the breakeven point at $42.56. Traders are also homing in on the Dec 06 ’13 $43.5 and $44 strike calls, with around 430 and 750 contracts exchanged thus far in the session, respectively.
GM – General Motors Co – Shares in GM are on the rise today, up 1.0% at $39.15 as of 11:20 a.m. EST, after earlier rallying 1.7% to touch a new 52-week high of $39.39. Trading in the regular December options on the automaker this morning suggest one strategist is positioning for shares in the name to extend gains during the next few weeks.
It looks like one trader initiated a one-by-two ratio call spread on the stock, a strategy that looks for limited gains in the price of the underlying through December expiration. The trader appears to have purchased 920 calls at the Dec $39 strike at a premium of $1.10 each and sold twice as many of the Dec $41 strike calls at an average premium of $0.345 apiece. The net cost of the ratio spread amounts to $0.41 per contract and positions the strategist to profit in the event that GM’s shares exceed the breakeven price of $39.41. Maximum potential profits of $1.59 per contract are available on the spread if shares in the automaker rise 4.1% to settle at $41.00 at expiration later this month. Shares in GM are up more than 50% since this time last year.
BBY – Best Buy, Inc. – Shares in Best Buy have slipped into negative territory in the final hour of trading on Monday, with the stock down 0.20% at $43.62 as of 3:20 p.m. EST, ahead of the electronics retailer’s third-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell tomorrow.
Nov 22 ’13 expiry options are active ahead of the quarterly earnings release, with interest rising in both call and put options. One strategist appears to be taking the view that shares in the name will rally to fresh 52-week highs this week, buying a 1,000-lot Nov 22 ’13 $44/$48 call spread at a net premium of $1.23 per contract. The spread makes money if shares in Best Buy rally 3.7% over the current price to exceed the breakeven point at $45.23. Maximum potential profits of $2.77 per contract are available on the bull call spread in the event that BBY shares surge 10% to $48.00 by expiration this week. BBY shares are up roughly 200% since this time last year.
Overall options volume on Best Buy is approaching 35,000 contracts in the final 30 minutes of trading, which is roughly 165% of the stock’s average daily volume of around 20,700 contracts. Puts are trading more heavily than calls, with the put/call ratio up above 1.2 as of the time of this writing.
TWTR – Twitter, Inc. – Shares in Twitter are on the decline today, slipping 2.8% to $42.73 during the first half of the session after the stock was rated new ‘Sell’ with a 12-month target share price of $34.00 at Wunderlich Securities. Options on Twitter, which began trading on Friday, are active today, with volume nearing…
BBY - Best Buy Co., Inc. – Options on Best Buy are active this morning ahead of the consumer electronics retailer’s second-quarter earnings report prior to the opening bell on Tuesday morning. Shares in BBY are rising ahead of earnings, up 1.75% at $30.90 as of 11:40 a.m. ET. Weekly call and put options are the most actively traded contracts by volume as of the time of this writing, with more puts changing hands than calls and the put/call ratio hovering around 2.75. Much of the trades initiated this morning appear to be near-term bullish on BBY, with put sellers stepping in as well as upside call buyers. It looks like more than 2,000 of the Aug 23 ’13 $28.5 strike puts were sold in the early going for a premium of $0.55 apiece, while roughly 2,000 of the Aug 23 ’13 $29 puts were sold at a premium of $0.70 each. Put sellers keep the premium received on the trades as long as shares in Best Buy settle above the $28.5 and $29 striking prices at expiration this week. The positions start to lose money, however, in the event that BBY shares decline nearly 10% from the current price to trade below effective breakeven points at $27.95 and $28.30, respectively, at expiration. Finally, options traders exchanged more than 2,400 of the Aug 23 ’13 $31 strike calls versus open interest of 152 contracts. Time and sales data suggests much of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $1.20 apiece, thus positioning buyers of the calls to profit should shares in Best Buy rally 4.2% over the current price of $30.90 to exceed an average breakeven point and new 52-week high of $32.20.
INTC - Intel Corporation – Shares in Intel are up the…
BBY - Best Buy, Inc. – Shares in Best Buy are soaring on Monday, up as much as 7.7% during morning trading to hit $29.44, the highest level since July of 2011, after the stock was resumed at ‘Outperform’ with an increased target price of $40.00 from $32.00 at Credit Suisse today. Trading traffic in weekly options on the consumer electronics retailer suggest some strategists are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains during the shortened U.S. trading week. The most actively traded weekly contracts by volume this morning are the Jul 05 ’13 $29 strike calls, with upwards of 1,300 lots in play versus open interest of 75 contracts. Bullish traders appear to have purchased most of the contracts for an average premium of $0.37 apiece and may profit at expiration should Best Buy’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $29.37. Upside calls at the Jul 19 ’13 $30 strike are also active today, with around 630 lots purchased during morning trading at an average premium of $0.54 each. The contracts make money if shares in Best Buy rise another 3.7% to top $30.54 during the next few weeks to expiration. Shares in BBY are up more than 140% since the start of 2013.
GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – A sizable trade in January 2014 expiry put options on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters initiated within the first 40 minutes of the opening bell this morning suggests one trader may be bracing for a pullback in shares of the coffee producer, with the stock up more than 250% since this time last year. Shares in GMCR today are up 3.3% at $77.72 as of 12:25 p.m. in New York. It looks like one trader purchased 5,000 puts at the Jan 2014 $60 striking price for a premium of $5.35 per contract. The position starts making money in the event that shares in Green Mountain plunge 30% from the current price of $77.72 to breach the effective breakeven…
One of the candidates will lower taxes for the middle class and small businesses while slamming shut loopholes on the rich and Big Business, limiting their deductions and raising taxes if needed, he will provide national health-care and concentrate on jobs, punishing outsourcers and educating US workers to get them on the path to full employment. The other candidate is already President. Romney now claims there will be no 20% tax cut for the rich – I assume his rich backers assume he's lying to get elected (lying doesn't bother them) and President Obama was in no way prepared to debate the guy who showed up yesterday and he lost the debate in an embarrassing fashion.
From a market perspective, we were playing the weakness as nervousness ahead of the debates and accumulating long positions as planned yesterday. Oil blew past the $88.50 target I set in yesterday's morning post – all the way to $87.70 before finally bouncing back and hitting our target again overnight (now $88.64). That drop from $91.22 in the Futures was good for $3,500 per contract in the Futures but, of course, we were done being short, as planned at $88.50 and in fact made a couple of bullish trades – long on USO at $33 (as planned) and short on SCO at $44. We'll see how they work out today but up at the open is a good sign.
Our bullish stance on AAPL finally paid off as the stock went from $660 to $672 at the close – hopefully $680 is next. Gasoline only got to $2.75 (we were hoping for $2.70) but is back to $2.86 already in pre-market trading (/RB).
As you can see from Dave Fry's Russell chart, we're still in a bullish consolidation – just below our breakout level and today, so far, we don't have rising Dollar headwinds to hold us back…
Obviously, we're still bearish and the news we've been discussing this morning in Member Chat certainly hasn't changed my opinion on that. Back on August 7th(first Tuesday of last month), I said we were about $700Bn in stimulus short of what we need to support S&P 1,400 and we knew we would have to wait a month to see how much we got from Draghi and Bernanke but, so far, and with Ben already out of the way, we have zero.
At $10Bn per S&P point that puts our fair value all the way down to 1,330 but keep in mind that the $500Bn we did get only lasts for 6 months so more like 1,310 at this point without a proper commitment by the ECB or Fed this week. Even 1,310 would be up 50 from the June lows and it would represent a neat 2/3 retracement of the rally since then. Our $25,000 Portfolio has, if anything, gotten more bearish as we dragged along the top but another thing we've done each Tuesday has been to take aggressive bullish positions to cover ourselves IN CASE someone actually does put up the cash needed to goose the markets over our breakout levels (see Friday's post for current positions in the virtual Portfolio and our levels).
Seriously, this is 4 Tuesday's in row – is anyone seeing a pattern?
Of course this Tuesday we are 100 Dow points lower than we were last Tuesday and the BS pre-market pump job at 6am has already faded (7:30) although we're still working short bets on the Russell futures (/TF) and the Euro (EUR/USD) from 813 and $1.256 as I put up a note in early morning Member Chat as we spiked on – get this – the news that Draghi cancelled his appearance at Jackson Hole this weekend.
Why would it be good that Draghi is NOT going to the last Central Bankster conference of the year but the buzz is that he MUST be so close to a masterful solution to all of Europe's problems that he can't be bothered to gather with his brother bankers on the eve of his triumph. The announcement was timed to coincide (10 minutes before) bond auctions by Spain ($2Bn 3-month notes at 0.95%) and Italy ($3.75Bn of 2-year notes at 3.06%) and the Euro jumped 0.7% into the auction – lowering the effective rates and both auctions were a "success".
That pulled the EU markets off the floor (still down half a point at 8am) and got the US futures out of the red zone as we finally pushed the Dollar under that pesky 81.50 line, goosing the indexes and commodities. Unfortunately, it's just a sugar rush and we've already run out of steam but I'm sure someone will start another rumor around 9:15 to get us back to green into the open.
As I said last Tuesday, with the Dollar at 81.50 we're looking for adjusted levels of: Dow 13,464, S&P 1,428, Nasdaq 3,060, NYSE 8,160 and Russell 816 and we held the Nasdaq yesterday but that was all so no reason to capitulate on our bearish stance just yet. Last Tuesday we also discussed 3 more trades (there we 3 the Tuesday before) to make 300% if the market did break higher and our first batch had several 100% winners so let's see how our 3 new trades did in a downtrend:
2 FAS Oct $107/117 bull call spreads at $2.05, selling 1 BBY 2014 $15 puts for $3.75 for net .35 is now net $1.52 – up 334%
AGQ Oct $38/45 bull call spread at $3.10, selling BTU 2014 $20 puts for $3.60 for
BBY - Best Buy, Inc. – A bull call spread initiated on the world’s largest electronic retailer this morning suggests one option strategist is positioning for shares in Best Buy to potentially post double-digit percentage gains by January 2013 expiration. Shares in the retailer are up 5.9% at $18.33 this morning on news Best Buy agreed to permit its founder, Richard Schulze, to perform due diligence on the company required to further the process of possibly taking over the retailer with a group of private equity firms. The sizable spread was constructed through the purchase of 6,750 calls at the Jan. ’13 $19 strike call and the sale of the same number of calls up at the Jan. ’13 $23 strike, all for a net premium outlay of around $1.28 per contract. The spread makes money if shares in BBY rally another 11% to surpass the average breakeven price of $20.28, with maximum possible profits of $2.72 per contract available should the stock soar 25.5% to $23.00 by expiration next year. Options on Best Buy are more active than usual today, with volume in excess of 56,200 contracts running at approximately 156% of the stock’s average daily volume of 35,942 contracts.
KNXA - Kenexa Corp. – Shares in Kenexa Corp. are up nearly 42% this afternoon at $45.85 on news IBM agreed to buy the maker of human resources software for $1.3 billion in cash. It looks like the sharp move in the share price has some options traders sitting on substantial paper profits. Call open interest in Kenexa is largest at the Sep. $35 strike where 399 positions were initiated during the past few weeks. A 100-lot block was purchased at a premium of $1.00 back on August 9th and around 35 of the calls were picked up this past Friday at an average premium of $0.85 apiece. Call buyers paying up to $1.00 per contract for the…
Yep, that's what I said last Tuesday and the Tuesday before that because Tuesday is a day they push the Futures higher and ditch the Dollar and tell you that this time it's different because of the same rumors they had the Tuesday before only this week – the data is getting worse and worse, as we know is better, right?
Last Tuesday we set levels to capitulate and go fully bullish at Dow 13,464, S&P 1,428, Nasdaq 3,060, NYSE 8,160 and Russell 816 and, as of yesterday's close we had the Nasdaq and the Russell over their marks needing just one confirmation to make it 3 of 5 and begin to flip our short-term portfolios (the $25KPs) bullish. We are soooo close but, so far – no cigar.
While we waited, we looked at some upside hedges that would do well if the market continued higher. Just as we get downside protection when we're bullish – we use upside protection when we're bearish and I suggested taking 5% or 10% positions in aggressive upside plays to help balance a bearish portfolio against – well against exactly what happened in the past 7 days. Our trade ideas were:
2 FAS Oct $105/115 bull call spread at $2, selling 1 BBY 2014 $18 puts for $3.25 for net .75, now $1.15 – up 53%
2014 SHLD $32.50 puts sold for $7.50, now $6.40 – up 15%
6 EWJ Jan $9 calls at .53, selling 1 BBY 2014 $18 put at $3.25 for a net .07 credit, still net .07 credit – even
TNA Oct $55/61 bull call spread at $2.50, selling Oct $42 puts for $1.90 for net .60, now $1.80 – up 200%
The BBY puts jumped over 20% yesterday, from below $3 to $3.75 and that killed two of our trades (and worse today after earnings!), that were up significantly in Friday's update(which is why we take quick gains like that off the table). The good news is the EWJ play gives us a nice, new entry at the same net price so that one is still good and, of course, we are done with TNA after making 200% in a week and we'll find a fresh horse for that money.
Speaking of fresh horses – for our offsetting short puts today – let's take…
That's how much money yesterday's rally cost. Spain got the green-light on $123Bn from the ECB, most of which goes to just ONE bank (Bankia Group). This news sent Bankia shares up 15% and did wonders for their creditors' stocks as well because, as we know, the best way to get money from a Central Banks is to owe a lot of money to other banks so – borrow, borrow, borrow if you want to survive the Financial Crisis. Spain led Europe higher with a 4% gain on the day and hit another 1.75% early this morning before pulling back.
Even China is seeing declining exports, with August projected to come in at less than 1% according to ForexLive, who says "China's Government has underestimated the impact of the European debt crisis on trade flows." As you can see from the chart on the right for California, China's export woes are hitting us on this side of the Pacific as well as total state revenues are 10% below projections with HUGE misses in Sales Tax – indicating an extremely beaten-down West Coast consumer.
The state has avoided default by temporarily borrowing from state trust funds, but those accounts will soon need their cash back to continue operating. Today California quickly began trying to sell $10 billion in municipal bonds to fund the record $28 billion they need to keep the lights on. With tax revenue plummeting and the state already the second
It's time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, Regular is up three cents and Premium two cents -- the highest prices since mid-September.
According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii is the only state with regular above $4.00 per gallon, now at $4.15. The next highest state average is California at $3.90. No states are averaging under $3.00, with the lowest prices in South Carolina at $3.17.
How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here's a visual answer.
Here is a chart showing the number of transactions that involve acquisitions of an asset management business by year. It tells us about a couple of trends developing in recent years.
1. Increasingly asset managers are bought by other asset managers in strategic acquisitions (and to a lesser degree by financial sponsors).
2. Banks have stopped acquiring asset management businesses. In fact what the chart doesn't tell us is that banks have been actively selling their asset management businesses (especially in alter...
The dramatic moves in fuel cell related stocks continues this week, with shares in Plug Power (Ticker: PLUG), FuelCell Energy (Ticker: FCEL) and Ballard Power Systems (Ticker: BLDP) beginning the trading week with explosive gains ahead of FuelCell Energy’s first-quarter earnings report after the closing bell, and following on the heels of a large order from Walmart for Plug Power, which the company confirmed in a press release on February 26th.
Shares in PLUG rose as much as 38% to touch $11.41 this afternoon, marking a near 150% move to the upside in the price of the underlying since Monday morning of last week when the stock opened at $4.60....
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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
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After a requisite knee-jerk selloff, stock market bulls shook off Russia’s military action in Ukraine and Crimea as just another buying opportunity. Even adding the Russian Bear to their arsenal couldn’t give bears the upper hand for long. The S&P 500 large cap index set yet another all-time intraday high and closed at a new record high on Friday. Also, the Russell 2000 small cap index set new record intraday and closing highs last week north of 1200. However, the technical condition is getting overbought, and Sabrient’s SectorCast rankings have moved from bullish to a more neutral bias.
The eagerly-awaited jobs report on Friday showed greater jobs creation than expected in February, and January's figure was revised higher, as well. Friday was the S&P 500's fifth record closing high i...
Mt. Gox is well-known for creating one of the world's first Bitcoin trading posts. Unfortunately, in the company's most recent attempt to save its legacy, the virtual company has had to file for bankruptcy to protect its remaining assets, while trying to expand internationally.
Mt. Gox has filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy proceedings in the United States. Chapter 15 bankruptcy is special because it often deals with cases and scenarios that are related to other countries as well. The goal of this proceeding is to combine efforts to come to a mutual agreement....
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Ladies and Gentlemen, hobos and tramps,
Cross-eyed mosquitoes, and Bow-legged ants,
I come before you, To stand behind you,
To tell you something, I know nothing about.
And so the circus begins in Union Square, San Francisco for this weeks JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. Will the momentum from 2013, which carried the S&P Spider Biotech ETF to all time highs, carry on in 2014? The Biotech ETF beat the S&P by better than 3 points.
As I noted in my previous post, Biotechs Galore - IPOs and More, biotechs were rushing to IPOs so that venture capitalists could unwind their holdings (funds are usually 5-7 years), as well as take advantage of the opportune moment...
Welcome to the fouth update of the IRA Virtual Portfolio. First I am going to summarize the current state of the Portfolio then I will get into all the activity we had during September expiration.
Profit and Loss – Net of closed positions the portfolio is up a total of $769
Market Commentary – Last expiration I said, "I would like to put a total of $20,000 to work by the end of SEP expiration. If the VIX pops up to around 20 I plan to put about $50,000 total to work." The market didn't quite reach the goal but I did manage to deploy $15,000 of buying power. I still feel the market is too high and expect a correction during October. If the vix pops up to around 20 I still plan to put about $50,000 to work. If a correction doesn't happen I still plan to have a total of $25,000 in buying power put to work by October expiration. Now on to the act...
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