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Posts Tagged ‘bear markets’

The “Real” Mega-Bears

The "Real" Mega-Bears 

Courtesy of Doug Short 

Click to ViewIt’s time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

This chart is consistent with my preference for real (inflation-adjusted) analysis of long-term market behavior. The nominal all-time high in the index occurred in October 2007, but when we adjust for inflation, the "real" all-time high for the S&P 500 occurred in March 2000.

Here is a nominal version to help clarify the impact of inflation and deflation, which varied significantly across these three markets.

For those who prefer the overlay aligned with the 2007 S&P 500 peak, here is the nominal Mega-Bear Quartet charts and commentary.

Note: These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the today’s market in relation to historic market cycles.  


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David Tice Says Double-Dip Recession ‘In the Cards’ for U.S.

David Tice Says Double-Dip Recession ‘In the Cards’ for U.S.

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns 

David Tice, chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. He sees a double dip coming and argues against stimulus to prevent it, saying policy makers shouldn’t act as “Good Time Charlie” preventing the deleveraging of U.S. households. 


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The Yo-Yo Market and You

WSJ: The Yo-Yo Market and You

Courtesy of Andy Kessler 

Wsj_logo

Bull markets, it is said, climb a wall of worry. Smart investors buy in early when worries about profits or inflation or wars scare away the faint of heart. Latecomers then bid up stocks as each worry becomes unfounded, until there is nothing left to worry about. Once there is only good news, the market peaks as there is no one left to buy.Yo-yo

Bear markets, on the other hand, fall into what I like to call the pit of doom. Forget about worries—actual bad stuff happens, until nothing bad is left to happen and the market bottoms as there is no one left to sell.  

From early May through last week, the market dropped 1500 points into the pit, on the backs of gushing BP oil, riots in Europe, a 30% drop in pending home sales and the news that maybe your next door neighbor is a Russian spy. But now we’ve seen 680 Dow points added over seven straight up days before a slight decline yesterday. What the heck is going on?

Click here for the rest of the article. 


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Know Your Market Bears – A Field Guide

Market Bears – what sub-species are you? "Outwardly concerned with the instability of economies and markets yet cannot resist the urge to speculate in gold stocks"--if that rings true, you’re a David RosenBear. Now you know. – Ilene

Know Your Market Bears – A Field Guide

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

Bear Field Guide

(read the below in an exaggerated Australian accent, like that guy who took bubble baths with great white sharks and electric eels but for some strange reason died in a freak animal incident.)

Krikey!  This landscape is litrelly filled with Market Bears!  But wait just a tick – there appear to be many different types of bears running about…all with different attributes and markings to help us tell them apart.

Let’s have a peak through the binoculars and see what we’ve got:

The Born-Again Bear (Ursus Scottradeum) - this creature was horribly wounded during two prior market crashes while remaining long and margined to the hilt.  Has since sold entire portfolio at the bottom, subscribed to RGE Monitor and delights in telling the members of his old investment club what morons they are.  Can be found roaring "bwahaha" at other investors on the Yahoo Finance message boards.

The Perma-Bear (Ursus Abelsonious) – the very definition of "creature of habit", Perma-Bears are right 2% of the time but tedious and pedantic 100% of the time.  By never conceding the fact that anything could even possibly be a positive, they render themselves irrelevant, even during actual bear markets.  Many, however, are brilliant and lovable, despite their unwillingness to change or concede.

The Conspiratorial Bear (Ursus Tinfoilicon) – A highly adaptive sub-species of the Perma-Bear.  These animals are known for their over-perspicacity and have foreseen 11 of the last 3 market corrections due to a light social calendar and a fondness for Data-mining & Dragons.  They are, however, always the most interesting bears to behold in the forest and serve the important role of keeping the other woodland creatures on their toes and alert.

The David RosenBear (Ursus Aurum Minotur) – a species that is outwardly concerned with the instability of economies and markets yet cannot resist the urge to speculate in gold stocks.  He will justify his "playing" of precious metals with myriad warnings of inflation, deflation, mega-flation, Gaga-flation etc, but in reality, he is banking on the greater…
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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Zero Hedge

Precious Metals Liquidated To Make Room For Alibaba, Silver At Four-Year Lows

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Precious metals are under pressure once again this morning led by Silver which just hit its lowest since August 2010. It appears investors are liquidating precious metals to make room in their 'safe haven' portfolio for precious Ma's Alibaba IPO... because what could go wrong there... (Russell 2000 is also seeing notable liquidation)

What makes us think this is BABA liquidation (obviously tongue-in-cheek but the timing is odd...)

 

As Silver gets relatively slammed...

...



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Phil's Favorites

THe ALiBaBa IPO CHaRT...

This chart by William Banzai7 argues in favor of waiting to buy BABA until the HFT churn zone. PaTieNCe. (Let's revisit this one a few years from now.)

Originally posted at Zero Hedge.

By williambanzai7.


 

 

...

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Chart School

The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: New Update

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: I've updated this series to include the data in yesterday's Federal Reserve release of the 2014 Z.1 Financial Accounts for Q2. Based on data extrapolations through the current close, the Q Ratio is 70% above its arithmetic mean and 83% above its geometric mean. The current valuation level is surpassed only by the turn-of-the-century Tech Bubble.

The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It's a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Fortunately, the government does the work of accumulating the data for the calculation. The numbers are supplied in the Federal Reserve ...

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Market Shadows

Selling PVD

Selling PVD

Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. (PVD) shares will not be trading on the NY Stock Exchange after today. Tomorrow, shares will be harder to sell. Strangely, I wasn't able to find information on the internet, but Paul just sent me a copy of the email he received from Interactive Brokers.

We're selling PVD out of the Virtual Portfolio today at $87.18. 

More details:

From: Interactive Brokers   dated July 18, 2014

Holders of AFP Provida S.A. American Depository Receipts (ADR) are advised that the Company has elected to terminate the Deposit Agreement effective 2014-09-18.

As of the te...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

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Insider Scoop

Nomura Cautious On Netflix, Inc. Estimates

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NFLX Netflix, Inc. Technicals Suddenly Weakening UPDATE: Netflix Teams with Legendary Television for 'Love' Get Ready for a Hot September for Stocks (Fox Business)

Analysts at Nomura lowered their fiscal year 2015 and 2016 EPS estimates for Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) due to greater-than-expected interna...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls go down swinging, refusing to give up much ground

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Although the stock market displayed weakness last week as I suggested it would, bulls aren’t going down easily. In fact, they’re going down swinging, absorbing most of the blows delivered by hesitant bears. Despite holding up admirably when weakness was both expected and warranted, and although I still see higher highs ahead, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback. A number of signs point to more weakness ahead.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-r...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly. Enjoy!

[Sign in with your PSW user name and password, or take a free trial here.]

Image courtesy of Business Insider, Jay Yarow's This Is The Best Description Of How Apple's Business Works Right Now.

 

...

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Option Review

Big Prints In VIX Calls

The CBOE Vix Index is in positive territory on Friday morning as shares in the S&P 500 Index move slightly lower. Currently the VIX is up roughly 2.75% on the session at 13.16 as of 11:35 am ET. Earlier in the session big prints in October expiry call options caught our attention as one large options market participants appears to have purchased roughly 106,000 of the Oct 22.0 strike calls for a premium of around $0.45 each. The VIX has not topped 22.0 since the end of 2012, but it would not take such a dramatic move in the spot index in order to lift premium on the contracts. The far out-of-the-money calls would likely increase in value in the event that S&P500 Index stocks slip in the near term. The VIX traded up to a 52-week high of 21.48 back in February. Next week’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes f...



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Digital Currencies

Making Sense of Bitcoin

Making Sense of Bitcoin

By James Black at International Man

Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.

Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."

The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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