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Posts Tagged ‘bearish’

The Albert Edwards Exploration Diary, Day 423

Joshua M Brown found the latest entry in the diary of a frustrated bear in search of negative data showing the economy is headed for a downturn in The Albert Edwards Exploration Diary, Day 423. – Ilene 

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

2 Decembre Anno Domini 2010

This morning I awoke to a cable from the nearest village informing me that Cyber Monday shopping stateside broke all kinds of records.  I’ve also been informed that PMIs from around the world are now in expansionary territory in unison.  Even jobs data is getting a tiny bit better, week by week…

But still I forge ahead.  I will scour the ends of the earth to find indicators that cast economic conditions in a negative light.  I will climb the highest peaks and plumb the depths of the Seven Seas in search of Depressionary evidence – no matter how obscure.  I will measure the second derivative change in Chinese eel sales on the wharves of Tianjin.  I will document the savings rates of retired sailors in Marseilles.  I will stop at nothing to make the numbers agree with my orneriness – this I swear to you, faithful client of Societe Generale.

Although my employer SocGen, the bankroller of my exploration, appears to be losing faith in my stubborn jeremiads, I must continue until I am proven correct.  I must plow on in my search for negative data until I am vindicated, even if global markets triple and quadruple before the next down cycle.

One day, the recovery will falter.  And on that day, I will be redeemed.

Yours in Perma-Bearishness,

Albert

Read Also:

Indicator Wars (FTAlphaville)

Help Me!  I’m Trapped in my Richard Russell Bunker!  (TRB)


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INVESTORS HAVEN’T BEEN THIS BULLISH SINCE 2007 MARKET PEAK

INVESTORS HAVEN’T BEEN THIS BULLISH SINCE 2007 MARKET PEAK

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Being bearish is officially out of style. Sentiment readings have reached well beyond excessively bullish levels. The most recent Investor’s Intelligence survey showed another sharp increase in bullishness at 56.2%. This 7.6% surge in bullishness is the largest one week jump since April 2010.  At 56.2% this is also the highest reading since December 2007. The last time bullishness was even near these levels was April 28th, 2010 just days before the flash crash.

Last week’s AAII survey also showed extraordinarily high levels of bullishness at 57.6%.   This reading is literally off the charts and almost 10 points higher than bullish sentiment at the April highs.

Bespoke Investments highlighted how unusual it is to see both of these sentiment polls at such high levels:

“At a current level of 113.8%, the combined reading is the highest since mid-October 2007, which was shortly after the S&P 500 reached its all-time closing high of 1,565.15.  More recently, the last time combined bullish sentiment was above 100% was in April 2010.”

“Buy the dip” and “don’t fight the Fed” have become universal rally cries in recent weeks. It now appears as though no one believes the market can sustain a decline.  Unfortunately, the market generally frustrates the most people most of the time. If that saying rings true today the market is at a particularly risky juncture.

*AAII survey will be updated tomorrow after its latest release.

Update: AAII sentiment fell 17.6% this week to 40%.  According to Charles Rotblut this is the largest decline since January 2009. Like the current reading, that decline followed a multi month high in sentiment.  The market ultimately plunged until sentiment hit its low of 19% in March 2009. 


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Bullish….Bearish… or Neither

Bullish….Bearish… or Neither

Courtesy of Chris Kimble 

Am I Bullish, Bearish or Neither?

Choice “C”…Niether!

I am of the opinion, being Bullish or Bearish are emotional states of mind.  They are NOT STRATEGIES.  I believe that we should invest in each asset on its own individual merits/patterns, not based upon some global macro prediction.

Did I suggest to buy the 500 index (see post) and become “BULLISH” on 8/29 because the economy was fine? NO!  Bought the 500 Index due to these conditions…Bottom of channel support and a falling wedge and by the way, the fewest investors bullish since the March 2009 low.  NOTHING MORE!

Did I harvest the S&P 500 position and become “BEARISH” yesterday (see post) , after an 8% gain in three weeks, because something is bad about the economy? NO!  Harvested due to Fibonacci resistance at the top of a trading range. NOTHING MORE! 

Did I buy Silver a month ago (see post) because something is wrong with the dollar or that inflation is going to go wild or….NOPE!  I bought Silver on an upside breakout from a favorable pattern,  an ascending triangle . NOTHING MORE!

Why own Emerging Markets or Brazil right now?  Falling channel breakouts!  (See Post)  NOTHING MORE! 

Why own High Yield mutual funds?  A breakout of a flag pattern and above moving averages (see post) . NOTHING MORE!

Why BUY HOME BUILDERS XHB  (see post) when so many people are BEARISH on this industry?  Because of rising channel support plus a sizeable falling wedge after a 30% decline. NOTHING MORE!   (Current gain of over 12%!)

Will we buy the 500 index and other global markets  (see post)  on an upside break of these long-term falling channels? YES!!!

My goal is to try to provide solutions,  that will help investors “inflate portfolios, regardless of market direction by way of the Power of the Pattern!”    I will leave the Bullish or Bearish elements of this business to people much smarter than myself.

Chris


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Bullish….Bearish… or Neither

Chris, on being neitherish, i.e., how he views the markets. – Ilene 

Bullish….Bearish… or Neither

Courtesy of Chris Kimble 

Am I Bullish, Bearish or Neither?

Choice “C”…Niether!

I am of the opinion, being Bullish or Bearish are emotional states of mind.  They are NOT STRATEGIES.  I believe that we should invest in each asset on its own individual merits/patterns, not based upon some global macro prediction.

Did I suggest to buy the 500 index (see post) and become “BULLISH” on 8/29 because the economy was fine? NO!  Bought the 500 Index due to these conditions…Bottom of channel support and a falling wedge and by the way, the fewest investors bullish since the March 2009 low.  NOTHING MORE!

Did I harvest the S&P 500 position and become “BEARISH” yesterday (see post) , after an 8% gain in three weeks, because something is bad about the economy? NO!  Harvested due to Fibonacci resistance at the top of a trading range. NOTHING MORE! 

Did I buy Silver a month ago (see post) because something is wrong with the dollar or that inflation is going to go wild or….NOPE!  I bought Silver on an upside breakout from a favorable pattern,  an ascending triangle . NOTHING MORE!

Why own Emerging Markets or Brazil right now?  Falling channel breakouts!  (See Post)  NOTHING MORE! 

Why own High Yield mutual funds?  A breakout of a flag pattern and above moving averages (see post) . NOTHING MORE!

Why BUY HOME BUILDERS XHB  (see post) when so many people are BEARISH on this industry?  Because of rising channel support plus a sizeable falling wedge after a 30% decline. NOTHING MORE!   (Current gain of over 12%!)

Will we buy the 500 index and other global markets  (see post)  on an upside break of these long-term falling channels? YES!!!

My goal is to try to provide solutions,  that will help investors “inflate portfolios, regardless of market direction by way of the Power of the Pattern!”    I will leave the Bullish or Bearish elements of this business to people much smarter than myself.

Chris


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SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Investor sentiment took a turn for the worse this week as most investors became increasingly bearish.  The Investor’s Intelligence survey showed a steep 5% decline in bullishness while the AAII‘s survey showed an even larger decline of 9.7%.   Although both surveys have declined dramatically in the last week neither is at extremes:

II2 SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

aaii3 SENTIMENT TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE

Charles Rotblut of AAII elaborated on the AAII results:

“Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 9.7 percentage points in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment registered 30.1%, a six-week low. The historical average is 39%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will be essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 2.7 percentage points to 27.4%. The historical average is 31%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 12.4 percentage points to 42.5%. This is a four-week high. The historical average is 30%.

Bearish sentiment has been firmly above its historical average for 14 out of the last 15 weeks. Sustained volatility in the market, continued economic uncertainty, a negative year-to-date return for the S&P 500 and low bond yields are all combining to fray individual investors’ nerves. Confidence is likely to remain fragile until investors have a sense that a bottom has been established for stock prices.”

Source: AAII & II 


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High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over

High Frequency Swanning – The Crash Camp Takes Over

Red Bull Air Race Perth - Training Day

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown, The Reformed Broker 

Here a Swan, there a Swan, everywhere a Black Swan…

Newsletter writers, hedge fund managers, journalists, bloggers, technicians, fundamental analysts, economists and strategists are joining the crash camp left and right.  Not the bear camp…the crash camp.

I’ve been running around Manhattan all day taking care of business, meeting clients etc.  After scanning today’s articles and blog posts, I can honestly say that I’ve never heard more chatter about an imminent market crash, all at once, in my life.  It’s like the May 6th Flash Crash got everyone in the mood to talk cataclysm all of a sudden.

I’m not one of those guys who takes everything as a contrarian signal.  I abhor knee-jerk contrarianism.  Samuel Lord once said "Do not choose to be wrong for the sake of being different," and I think that’s kind of apropos here.

As avowed contrarian Dougie Kass likes to remind us, the crowd usually outsmarts the remnant when herd mentality takes over.  So what is the herd hearing/ seeing?

* First of all, the macro guys are disturbed by the Euro Zone’s crisis and its ripple effect/ contagion risk.  This isn’t new but it is more pervasive.  And the possibility of a China collapse scares the hell out of almost everyone.

* The technicians and Dow Theorists are grossed out and have dusted off all the 1937 charts again.  Specifically, they are looking at the highly distinct pattern of a big drop (May 6th) followed by a failed rally (euro bailout day’s 4% gap open) followed by another fast sell-off. Richard Russell’s latest missive, in which he tells us that we won’t recognize America by year’s end, will make you want to kill yourself.

* Equity analysts are all pointing to year-over-year comps which will start getting harder now.  They may feel OK about the "E" but they’re shaky about the "P" – will the tax hikes and regulatory headwinds we now face really allow for a high-teens multiple on whatever the earnings turn out to be?

* Bond guys are freaking out about sovereign stuff, obviously.  We’ve transferred corporate risks onto government balance sheets with bailouts, the Piper still awaits his payment in many cases.

*Eddie Elfenbein posted the results of a CNBC poll yesterday in which 40% of respondents predicted a 50% haircut for…
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CHART OF THE DAY: THE SMALL INVESTOR HATES THIS RALLY

CHART OF THE DAY: THE SMALL INVESTOR HATES THIS RALLY

from dangerous mindsCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

As the most hated rally in the history of rallies continues, the small investor remains incredibly pessimistic about the sustainability of any recovery. Is this the contrarian of all contrarian signs or is this simply another case of the public seeing thru a stimulus based rally for what it really is?  David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff elaborates on the record lows in sentiment:

As Chart 1 illustrates, a record-low 6.2% of Americans buy into the recovery story  and it looks as if this picture is already in the process of double-dipping.  Rarely, if ever, has the perception gap between Wall Street and Main Street been so wide as it is today.

sent CHART OF THE DAY: THE SMALL INVESTOR HATES THIS RALLY

Source: Gluskin Sheff 


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Bears

Robert Prechter’s Thoughts on Valuation and Sentiment

Courtesy of Adam Sharp at Bearish News 

Nice interview via CNBC. Mr. Elliot Wave talks about current extreme bullish sentiment and what it means, among other things.

*****

Don’t let the bears eat you while you’re sleeping! (I know, you’re not worried now.)

THE SLEEPING BEAR

Courtesy of Jason Louv at Dangerous Minds 

image

This is perhaps the greatest camping accessory ever made. A sleeping bag that looks like a bear—perfect for scaring away bears that show up in the night… unless they fall in love and try to get all up in that shit….?

This is a greatest sleeping bag. You can wear it to sleep when you go camping. It is safe that no bear will attack your camp and eat you? Or you just want to wear it, and then scare your friend when he(she) wake up in the morning. (a good idea!) Well made and Cool! By artist Eiko Ishizawa.

(The Sleeping Bear)

(Thanks, @leashless!) 


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SMALL SPECULATORS REMAIN BEARISH

SMALL SPECULATORS REMAIN BEARISH

Black bear, Waterton Lakes National Park, Alberta, Canada

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The latest data from the CFTC shows continued bearishness from small speculators.  Small speculators have been skeptical of the rally since its inception and remain so.  More importantly, they have been wrong.  This cruel market gave them a taste of victory over the last few weeks before snatching back half of the losses.   Despite my cautious tone since S&P 1120, I fully disagree with the small speculators.  You cannot be short equities in the face of the strong trends we continue to see.   Earnings are likely to continue to be robust, we are approaching another stimulus based spring real estate season and stimulus in general remains accommodative.  Small speculators as a contrarian indicator is likely to continue working.

COT SMALL SPECULATORS REMAIN BEARISH

 

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David’s Five Keys to Identifying a Fundamental Day Trade

In the Oxen Group section, David recommends a couple day-trades, usually in the morning, often a stock or ETF to buy, and a stock or ETF to sell short. David selects his trading candidates based on his “fundamental day-trade system,” and his analysis of the technical condition of the market. He attempts to choose stocks and ETFs that are likely to move 3-5% during the day, and also to open and close the positions at optimal times.

David selects trades by first examining five key sources of information to help him find "high probability trades." After selecting the trades, he applies several basic trading rules. He has an excellent track record, which is posted in the Oxen Group section and updated every few weeks. Previously, David wrote about the first two of his fundamental keys. Here, David writes about all five of the most important factors he looks at. – Ilene 

The Five Keys to Identifying a Fundamental Day Trade

By David at Phil’s Stock World 

Identifying the Fundamentals

Stocks move under the influence various factors that we can use to identify stocks that are likely to move 3-5% in a single day. Even the best technicals seldom give you 5% upward (or downward) movements intraday alone, but combined with fundamental factors, we can find stocks that are likely to make these large daily moves.

To begin to seek that perfect stock or ETF, we first need to look for something that can propel a stock or, in the case ETFs, the represented sector. This 3-5% movement is not from the previous day’s close, but between the market’s open and close. We want to identify a stock that can be bought sometime in the morning to give us that significant movement by the end of the day. The first type of information that is prone to easily move stocks is earnings.

1. Earnings
Briefcase Full of $100 Bills

There are multiple ways to play a company’s earnings. One of the most effective ways to invest based on earnings is after a company has already announced their earnings. We are looking for earnings that were surprising, especially ones that say something about a sector.

For example, if one company announces positive earnings because it had a large profit from a lawsuit, this information does not tell us much about


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Zero Hedge

Goldman Reports Worst Q1 Results Since Lehman, Average Employee Pay Drops 7% To $376,840

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Moments ago Goldman reports its first quarter earnings, which beat expectations that had been drastically lowered into this quarter. Specifically, total Q1 revenue printed at $9.33 billion, beating expectations of $8.66Bn, while EPS, which declined 6% from a year ago, also beat Estimates of $3.49 at $4.02. Looking at the key operating segments, the all important FICC revenue was $2.85Bn, also above the sharply reduced estimate of $2.63Bn, while IB was $1.78Bn, more than the Wall Street estimate of $1.52Bn. That was the good news.

The bad news: Goldman's first quarter results were the worst since the Lehman crisis, and just to put the critical FICC group's revenues in perspe...



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Phil's Favorites

Talk of Bloodless Coup in Donetsk; European Countries Resent US Tone; Low Hopes for Peace Talks; War, What Is It Good For?

Courtesy of Mish.

Another bloodless coup in Ukraine is underway. This time, it's in the Donetsk region.

Should it come to that ending, it would be the third Ukrainian coup in a matter of months (counting the ouster of former president Viktor Yanukovych followed by the coup in Crimea).

Talk of Bloodless, Passive Coup in Donetsk

Please consider Kiev’s Weak Grip on East Falters.
Moscow is only an hour ahead of Donetsk but the inflammatory descriptions emanating from Russia over events in eastern Ukraine on Wednesday were much further distanced from reality.

As President Vladimir Putin was talking of his neighbouring country as being “on the brink of a civil war”, in Slavya...



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Insider Scoop

UPDATE: DuPont Posts Drop In Q1 Net Profit

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related DD Earnings Scheduled For April 17, 2014 Stocks To Watch For April 17, 2014 Monsanto Beats Views As Profit Climbs (Fox Business)

DuPont Co (NYSE: DD) reported a 57% decline in its first-quarter earnings.

DuPont's quarterly profit slipped to $1.44 billion, or $1.54 per share, compared to a year-earlier profit of $3.35 billion, or $3.58 per share. Excludi...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Rally Day Three, Back in the Green for 2014

Courtesy of Doug Short.

When the US market opened, Japan's Nikkei had closed with a massive 3.01% gain and the EURO STOXX 50 was in rally mode, ultimately to log a 1.54% advance. The Federal Reserve had published better-than-forecast March Industrial Production data with a substantial upward revision to the February numbers. The S&P 500 popped at the open and rose in a couple of waves through the day to its 1.05% intraday high at the closing bell. This was the third day of gains and enough to put the index back in the green year-to-date but still 1.51% off its record closing high set ten sessions ago on April 2nd.

The yield on the 10-year note finished at 2.65%, up 1 bp from Friday's close and 5 bps off the 2014 low of 2.60%.

Here is a snapshot of the past five sessions.

Volume for today's advance was above slightly below its 50-day moving average. The c...



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Option Review

Short Term Bearish Options Trade On Las Vegas Sands

A roughly quarter of a million dollar play in the 17Apr’14 expiry $74 strike put options on Las Vegas Sands Corp (Ticker: LVS) caught our eye this morning, as just one full trading session remains in the life of these contracts in this holiday-shortened week. Shares in LVS are up more than 2.0% on the session at $74.90 just before 11:30 am ET and off an earlier session high of $75.44. Like many of the relative outperformers of 2014, shares in LVS have declined substantially since the beginning of March, down around 15% at its current level from a high of $88.28. Recent sessions have been volatile in this and other high-beta names, and perhaps this environment is just what the morning’s put trader is looking for ahead of expiration.

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

What the Market Wants: Positive News and Stocks at Bargain Prices

Courtesy of David Brown, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week’s market performance was nasty again, especially for the Small-cap Growth style/cap, down 4%.  Large-caps faired the best, losing only 2.7%.  That’s ugly and today’s market seemed likely to be uglier today with escalating tensions over the weekend in Ukraine. 

But once again, positive economic trumped the beating of the war drums. Retail Sales jumped up 1.1% over a projected 0.8% and last month’s tepid 0.3%, which was revised up to 0.7%.  While autos led, sales were up solidly overall.  Business inventories were about as expected with a positive tone.  Citigroup (C) handily beat estimates to add to the morning’s surprises.  As a result, the market was positive through most of the day, led by the DJI, up 0.91%, and the S&P 500, up 0.82%.  NASDAQ had a less...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook Takes Life Seriously and Moves To Create Its Own Virtual Currency, Increases UltraCoin Valuation Significantly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Reggie Middleton.

The Financial Times reports:

[Facebook] The social network is only weeks away from obtaining regulatory approval in Ireland for a service that would allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others, according to several people involved in the process. 

The authorisation from Ireland’s central bank to become an “e-money” institution would allow ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 14th 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...



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Market Shadows

Winning: Defined as Losing Less

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Market Shadows Excelled – With a 1.36% Weekly Decline

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is King. Our Virtual Value Porfolio took on that role this week as we lost a modest 1.36% of our value while the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped from 2.35% - 3.10%.

We remain bullish despite the shaky end of week sentiment. Our original $100,000 now totals $145,058 including our 2.8% cash reserve.

 ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is the new Stock World Weekly. Please sign in with your user name and password, or sign up for a free trial to Stock World Weekly. Click here. 

Chart by Paul Price.

...

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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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Pharmboy

Here We Go Again - Pharma & Biotechs 2014

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Ladies and Gentlemen, hobos and tramps,
Cross-eyed mosquitoes, and Bow-legged ants,
I come before you, To stand behind you,
To tell you something, I know nothing about.

And so the circus begins in Union Square, San Francisco for this weeks JP Morgan Healthcare Conference.  Will the momentum from 2013, which carried the S&P Spider Biotech ETF to all time highs, carry on in 2014?  The Biotech ETF beat the S&P by better than 3 points.

As I noted in my previous post, Biotechs Galore - IPOs and More, biotechs were rushing to IPOs so that venture capitalists could unwind their holdings (funds are usually 5-7 years), as well as take advantage of the opportune moment...



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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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