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Posts Tagged ‘Beige Book’

Which Way Wednesday – Beige Book Edition

The new Beige Book is here! 

Today we get the "anecdotal" information on the current economic conditions from each of the twelve Federal Districts, we find these reports very useful as they tend not to be sugar-coated and the last BBook release (June 10th) marked a clear top to the the last round of irrational market exuberance when there was no significant improvement in the Fed’s outlook despite the market having rallied 10% in the month leading up to it.

That’s all it takes to pop a bubble – the simple lack of additional air.  Members would do well to review the comments of that day as we got a quick read on the Book, which backed up our generally toppy view of the market and we jumped right on POT $105 puts for $1.15 at 2:03 as I had been targeting them as the most ridiculously overpriced stock and my quick read from the Fed confirmed it.  POT fell from $117.88 that day to $92.72 on expiration day and bottomed out at $82 on July 13th.  This is the way to play the Beige Book, you need to have a premise that is either confirmed or denied by the facts and you can make a play accordingly but you can’t simply REACT to the information, it can quickly be too late by the time you figure out what to do.  Having a plan and alternatives based on various outcomes allows you to take advantage of market data as it comes out.  That’s why we get so excited when we get our Beige Book!  

BBook days are often market movers.  This year’s Books came out Jan 14th (down 250), March 4th (up 100 ahead of huge drop) and April 15th (up 100) and June 10th where we went down 130, up 100 and finished the day back down just 24 points.  Going back to my June 10th post, I see a lot of similarities, including the China bubble – which I also said was overdone at that time ahead of a 2,000-point pullback that began on the 12th.  Oil was $71.50 that morning and it’s "just" $65.50 now and that’s a ray of sunshine if it heads lower.  That was also the day I called for a class action suit against GS for their blatant manipulation of the energy markets – something I still have not found a law firm brave enough to take on! 

I sent
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Wednesday – What Color Is Your Beige Book?

The Fed’s Beige Book comes out at 2pm today.

Our last Beige Books came out Jan 14th (down 250), March 4th (up 100 ahead of huge drop) and April 15th (up 100) so we are anxious to hear what the Fed has to say today in their anecdotal report of economic conditions through the end of May.  On May 20th we had Fed minutes and the market didn’t like that one bit. so let’s hope they’ve cheered up since that last meeting.

Oil has cheered up, hitting $71.50 in pre-market trading.  All of our indexes are flying as Asian trading rocketed higher on a RUMOR that China’s Friday Industrial Production Report rose 8.9% in May and Tomorrow’s  Fixed Asset Investment Report will rise 37% for the month.   This came from the Ming Pao Daily, who cited "unnamed market sources."  This information is stunning, especially in light of the ACTUAL PPI falling 7.2% for May and the ACTUAL CPI, that showed a 1.4% decline but, since we have long ago entered the "no thinking zone" (in fact, on Mad Money yesterday, Cramer made fun of us for thinking!), so happy rumors trump ugly facts every time.

Perhaps it’s true, perhaps China did increase Industrial Production 9% while driving input costs down 7% during a month when commodities rose over 20%.  If so, all the more reason the Republicans should shut up and let us go Communist ASAP because those guys REALLY know how to get things done!  We’re already giving them Hummer and it’s very likely, by 2011, we’ll be importing 2M Electric Hummers a year from China.  Boy that joke will be on us, right? 

[The hidden costs of China stimulus charts]China is leading the global stimulus bandwagon, of course with a massive increase in debt financing this year.  "There is no such thing as a free stimulus package. There is a huge amount of unreported government debt, and we’re adding to it now clearly," said Stephen Green, an economist for Standard Chartered in Shanghai.

The stimulus package in China is working so well that there is now a 2-month wait to buy a car in China as direct subsidies and a cut in retail taxes has pushed millions of Chinese into auto dealerships.  Gee, rather than give the auto companies $30Bn three months before they went bankrupt – do you think the US could have offered $5,0000 incentives on 6M cars…
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Zero Hedge

Greek Schizophrenia Update

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The latest from the mathematically challenged country:

  • GREEK OPINION POLL SHOWS 85% IN FAVOR OF EURO
  • GREEK OPINION POLL SHOWS 12% OPPOSE EURO

Yet at the same time...

  • GREEK OPINION POLL SHOWS SYRIZA WITH 30%

That's right - 30%, or a polling record high, ...



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Chart School

Will the U.S. Dollar break this 10-year old falling resistance line?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

U.S. Dollar is now facing a falling 10-year resistance line and Dollar bullish sentiment is almost reaching 80%. 

 Despite these high bullish readings, if the Dollar succeeds in a breakout, odds move up considerably that "Deflation/Falling prices" picks up speed.

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Phil's Favorites

Europeans Betting Millions That Facebook Will Plunge Another 30% By December

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

While US banks have been busy refocusing their "creative financial products"-time over the past two months, instead defending against allegations of muppetism, or explaining how hedging is really betting it all on red, and then doubling down (just because the casino supposedly has the bank's back), Europe has been busy coming up with new and creative ways of betting on the demise of FaceBook. While official shorting of the most overhyped and overvalued company in history only became a reality for most investo...



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Insider Scoop

New York Stock Exchange Spokesperson Says There Have Been No Discussions with Facebook About Switching

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Rich Adamonis, NYSE (NYSE: NYX) spokesperson told Benzinga "In response to incorrect reports re: NYX and Facebook (NDAQ: FB): There have been no discussions with Facebook regarding switching their listing in light of the events of the last week, nor do we think a discussion along those lines would be appropriate at this time.”

document.write("") (c) 2012 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.


For more Benzinga, visit Benzinga Professional Service, ...

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Market Montage

Chinese, European Data Continues to Weaken as Market Potentially Forming New Bear Flag

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

First we'll go to the technicals.  Back in mid April I had opined a 'bear flag' formation was being created. [Apr 17, 2012: Potential Bear Flag Forming]  But the market being the difficult beast it is, head faked everyone and rather than a break down from said flag it first went UP and nearly touched yearly highs.  This caused everyone to think the bear flag had failed…. only to lead to a horrid May in the market.  Generally a bear flag will resolve relatively quickly but the longer...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New “Grecian Formula” is making us all gray

Courtesy of Scott Martindale, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite the fact that U.S. equities are well-positioned and well-supported to go up, once again it is the headlines out of Europe—especially Greece—that are scaring off investors. Some are saying that it is now likely (and even desirable) that Greece will default on all its sovereign debt, withdraw from the euro, and severely devalue its domestic currency (Drachma?). This will allow them to operate a balanced budget while pumping cash into growth initiatives, rather than suffer the ravages of Germany-mandated austerity.

Some say, so what? Greece makes up only about 2% of the Eurozone’s overall economy. Nevertheless, you might say that this new “Grecian Formula” is creating the opposite effect to the men’s hair product, i.e.., rather than losing the gray we are al...



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ETF Selector

Markets Die Then Flatten…Again (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, FB)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Markets died and then rallied to flat again as European leaders “prepared contingencies” for a possible Grexit

Markets died hard and fast earlier today as major indexes registered as much as 1.5% of losses after news that Euro zone officials were unofficially “preparing contingencies” for a Greek exit from the Euro.  Unofficial statements were not enough to keep markets down however, as major indexes rallied back to flat levels by the end of the day.

So the world continues to wait on Europe, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEACA:SPY) gained .05%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:...



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Option Review

AT&T Weekly Puts In Play

 

Today’s tickers: T, FXE & OI

T - AT&T, Inc. – U.S. equities are on the decline as Europe’s woes once again take center stage. Shares in AT&T, down 0.90% at $33.24 this afternoon, are faring better than most of the other Dow components so far, though options activity on the wireless carrier suggests some strategists are bracing for further declines ahead of the long w...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 21st, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: Test Issue

NEW: Ilene is available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is this week's test version of the latest newsletter. We apologize for some formatting issues that need to be worked out. Please tell us what you think. 

Click on Stock World Weekly here, and sign in/sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Big Pharma - Where Are We Now?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm."  This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers!  Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines.  Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...



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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin. FAS Money We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update. Last update P&L - $5499.00 IWM Money Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update. Last update P&L - $1998.00 $5KP Portfolio This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K. AAPL $50K P...

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