Which Way Wednesday – Beige Book Edition
by Phil - July 29th, 2009 8:30 am
Today we get the "anecdotal" information on the current economic conditions from each of the twelve Federal Districts, we find these reports very useful as they tend not to be sugar-coated and the last BBook release (June 10th) marked a clear top to the the last round of irrational market exuberance when there was no significant improvement in the Fed’s outlook despite the market having rallied 10% in the month leading up to it.
That’s all it takes to pop a bubble – the simple lack of additional air. Members would do well to review the comments of that day as we got a quick read on the Book, which backed up our generally toppy view of the market and we jumped right on POT $105 puts for $1.15 at 2:03 as I had been targeting them as the most ridiculously overpriced stock and my quick read from the Fed confirmed it. POT fell from $117.88 that day to $92.72 on expiration day and bottomed out at $82 on July 13th. This is the way to play the Beige Book, you need to have a premise that is either confirmed or denied by the facts and you can make a play accordingly but you can’t simply REACT to the information, it can quickly be too late by the time you figure out what to do. Having a plan and alternatives based on various outcomes allows you to take advantage of market data as it comes out. That’s why we get so excited when we get our Beige Book!
BBook days are often market movers. This year’s Books came out Jan 14th (down 250), March 4th (up 100 ahead of huge drop) and April 15th (up 100) and June 10th where we went down 130, up 100 and finished the day back down just 24 points. Going back to my June 10th post, I see a lot of similarities, including the China bubble – which I also said was overdone at that time ahead of a 2,000-point pullback that began on the 12th. Oil was $71.50 that morning and it’s "just" $65.50 now and that’s a ray of sunshine if it heads lower. That was also the day I called for a class action suit against GS for their blatant manipulation of the energy markets – something I still have not found a law firm brave enough to take on!
Wednesday – What Color Is Your Beige Book?
by Phil - June 10th, 2009 7:47 am
The Fed’s Beige Book comes out at 2pm today.
Our last Beige Books came out Jan 14th (down 250), March 4th (up 100 ahead of huge drop) and April 15th (up 100) so we are anxious to hear what the Fed has to say today in their anecdotal report of economic conditions through the end of May. On May 20th we had Fed minutes and the market didn’t like that one bit. so let’s hope they’ve cheered up since that last meeting.
Oil has cheered up, hitting $71.50 in pre-market trading. All of our indexes are flying as Asian trading rocketed higher on a RUMOR that China’s Friday Industrial Production Report rose 8.9% in May and Tomorrow’s Fixed Asset Investment Report will rise 37% for the month. This came from the Ming Pao Daily, who cited "unnamed market sources." This information is stunning, especially in light of the ACTUAL PPI falling 7.2% for May and the ACTUAL CPI, that showed a 1.4% decline but, since we have long ago entered the "no thinking zone" (in fact, on Mad Money yesterday, Cramer made fun of us for thinking!), so happy rumors trump ugly facts every time.
Perhaps it’s true, perhaps China did increase Industrial Production 9% while driving input costs down 7% during a month when commodities rose over 20%. If so, all the more reason the Republicans should shut up and let us go Communist ASAP because those guys REALLY know how to get things done! We’re already giving them Hummer and it’s very likely, by 2011, we’ll be importing 2M Electric Hummers a year from China. Boy that joke will be on us, right?
China is leading the global stimulus bandwagon, of course with a massive increase in debt financing this year. "There is no such thing as a free stimulus package. There is a huge amount of unreported government debt, and we’re adding to it now clearly," said Stephen Green, an economist for Standard Chartered in Shanghai.
The stimulus package in China is working so well that there is now a 2-month wait to buy a car in China as direct subsidies and a cut in retail taxes has pushed millions of Chinese into auto dealerships. Gee, rather than give the auto companies $30Bn three months before they went bankrupt – do you think the US could have offered $5,0000 incentives on 6M cars…


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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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