The financial news networks are just loving the “better than expected” news on new home sales. It’s amazing the conclusions people will come up with by just reading headline news reports without delving into the details of an economic news release. The real details of today’s new homes report shows substantial weakness.
I’ve been banging the drum on the seasonality of housing for many months now. We see this every single year. The spring buying season leads to better than expected sales across the board. If you back out the seasonal adjustment you’ll actually notice that the climb in units was just 3K. Mark Hanson at Field Check makes an interesting point on the climb in units:
“One thousand homes selling in the Northeast and two thousand in the Midwest was the extent of the gain over May.Again, that many properties either got a Notice-of-Default or were foreclosed upon in CA TODAY alone.”
The unadjusted year over year figures show equally weak data. Prices are down 12% and sales are down over 20%:
Econoday notes the strength in the figures:
“But not all the news is great. Sales were given a boost by deep discounting as the median price tumbled 5.8 percent in the month to $206,2000. The year-on-year price change fell to minus 12.0 percent from May’s minus 4.5 percent. Evidently prices are finding their own level in what will help rebalance the market but will unfortunately increase negative equity and pressure on foreclosures.”
Onthe bright side, inventories of new homes came down from 10.2 months to 8.8 months. This is without a doubt a positive, but it’s important to note the strong seasonal trends at work here. The real test of the housing market will come in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
What's been amazing of late hasn't been the market swings but the extent to which central bankers have contributed to them. Every press conference, statement and newspaper leak of central banks has been pre-empted, interpreted and re-interpreted - all in real time and often within seconds. Investor dependence on the thoughts and actions of central banks isn't new, but it seems to have reached unparalleled and absurd heights.
"Europe needs to be rethought. We consider just one year of information and then hold a referendum to say yes or no to the euro and yes or no to Europe. " Beppe Grillo to ride a strong theme of the last election campaign the 5 Star Movement. "Europe on the euro and the British teach us democracy. No party can claim the right to decide for...
Following the market opening Tuesday, the Dow traded up 0.36 percent to 15,390.13, while the NASDAQ rose 0.17 percent to 3,502.38. The S&P was also up, gaining 0.30 percent to 1,671.30.
Top Headline Home Depot (NYSE: HD) reported an 18.5% increase in its Q1 earnings and lifted its 2013 earnings forecast.
Home Depot's quarterly profit surged to $1.2 billion, or $0.83 per share, versus $1 billion, or $0.68 per share, in the year-ago quarter.
Its net sales climbed 7.4% to $19.1 billion from $17.8 billion, while comparable-store sales rose 4.3%. However, analysts were estimating earnings of $0.76 pe...
Via google translate from Corriere Della Sera, Beppe Grillo is in favor of a "Referendum on the Euro Within a year" "Europe needs to be rethought. We consider just one year of information and then hold a referendum to say yes or no to the euro and yes or no to Europe. " Beppe Grillo to ride a strong theme of the last election campaign the 5 Star Movement. "Europe on the euro and the British teach us democracy. No party can claim the right to decide for 60 million people. "
"I want to go to Europe and re-discuss a Plan B to be in five years, "added the leader M5S, explaining:" When we ...
ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co. – Shares in teen retailer, Abercrombie & Fitch Co., are getting hammered today, down 10% at $48.92 in early-afternoon trading after the company reported a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss and missed topline estimates, lowered its full year earnings forecast and said same-store sales would be down slightly for the rest of the year. A review of pre-earnings report activity in Abercrombie options yesterday indicates one trader was prepared for the pullback today. It looks like the strategist initiate...
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While the S&P 500 has had quite a year already the Nikkei has been the story of the globe as they are performing acts of central banking that even put the U.S. Fed to shame. And Japan's central bank can buy ETFs and REITs directly per their charter versus the U.S. bank. Combined with a yen in free fall it's been a heck of a move for the Nikkei since last November. I noted last week we were seeing extremely rare weekly and monthly type overbought readings on bo...
The market went through some gyrations on Wednesday in reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. He first defended continued quant easing by warning, “A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but also would carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery.” Stocks dutifully rallied and all major indexes hit new intraday highs.
But alas, consensus is apparently not a given over the longer term. The minutes hinted that a tapering off could start sooner, “A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth.” So …...
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By Craigzooka
I am going to share with you how I manage my IRA and the power of reducing your cost basis. My goal each year is a 20% return in my IRA. Sometimes I make it and sometimes I don't, but I believe that all of my success is due to reducing my cost basis. To illustrate the power of reducing your cost basis here are some trades we did last year. These trades are taken from an educational portfolio we ran in a paper-trading account for a little more than a year.
We bought RIG on 5/15/2012 for $44.13, sold it on 1/18/2013 for $46 but booked a profit of $1,154.
We bought MT on 1/4/2012 for $19.24, sold it on 12/21/2012 for $15 but booked a profit of $454.
We bought CHK on 1/27/2012 for $21.93, sold it on 10/19/2012 for $18 b...
Stock market posts another record setting week, but the big news came after Friday’s close.
Courtesy of NASA
The stock market put on another record setting show with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) closing at a record high 15,118 and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) closing at 1633.70, another all time closing high.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 1%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) climbed 1.2%, the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:...
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Well, well, well....it is good to know that there are others in the scientific arena who believed that YMI Bioscience's data (cough - Gilead) is a better drug than Incyte's Jakafi. Now, the definitive data are still unknown, but there was enough evidence from a Phase 2 trial to take a small risk for a huge reward. So, let's forget about Apple (AAPL), and do nothing but biotechs from now until Congress passes universal health care coverage for prescriptions....and drive the prices down so that research and development is no longer feasible to conduct in the US. Even Seattle Genetics (SGEN) has been on a tear as of late...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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