Posts Tagged ‘better than expected new homes sales’

THOUGHTS ON THE “BETTER THAN EXPECTED” NEW HOMES SALES

THOUGHTS ON THE “BETTER THAN EXPECTED” NEW HOMES SALES

better than expected cheerleadingCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The financial news networks are just loving the “better than expected” news on new home sales.  It’s amazing the conclusions people will come up with by just reading headline news reports without delving into the details of an economic news release.  The real details of today’s new homes report shows substantial weakness.

I’ve been banging the drum on the seasonality of housing for many months now.  We see this every single year.  The spring buying season leads to better than expected sales across the board.  If you back out the seasonal adjustment you’ll actually notice that the climb in units was just 3K. Mark Hanson at Field Check makes an interesting point on the climb in units:

“One thousand homes selling in the Northeast and two thousand in the Midwest was the extent of the gain over May. Again, that many properties either got a Notice-of-Default or were foreclosed upon in CA TODAY alone.

The unadjusted year over year figures show equally weak data.  Prices are down 12% and sales are down over 20%:

saeshouse

Econoday notes the strength in the figures:

“But not all the news is great. Sales were given a boost by deep discounting as the median price tumbled 5.8 percent in the month to $206,2000. The year-on-year price change fell to minus 12.0 percent from May’s minus 4.5 percent. Evidently prices are finding their own level in what will help rebalance the market but will unfortunately increase negative equity and pressure on foreclosures.”

Onthe bright side, inventories of new homes came down from 10.2 months to 8.8 months.  This is without a doubt a positive, but it’s important to note the strong seasonal trends at work here.  The real test of the housing market will come in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Source: Field Check Group

 


Tags: , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

We're about to get a clear example proving the stock market is not the economy (Business Insider)

When the results come in, US economic growth and earnings are on pace to show very different grades.

Euro-Area Economic Confidence Surges to Highest in a Decade (Bloomberg)

Euro-area economic confidence jumped to the highest in almost a decade this month, a testament to a continued improvement that may soon prompt a policy shift at the European Central Bank.

...

more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

We're about to get a clear example proving the stock market is not the economy (Business Insider)

When the results come in, US economic growth and earnings are on pace to show very different grades.

Euro-Area Economic Confidence Surges to Highest in a Decade (Bloomberg)

Euro-area economic confidence jumped to the highest in almost a decade this month, a testament to a continued improvement that may soon prompt a policy shift at the European Central Bank.

...

more from Paul

Zero Hedge

Trump Calls Schumer's Bluff: "If There's A Shutdown, There's A Shutdown... Democrats Would Be To Blame"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With Democrats seemingly unsatisfied with Republicans dropping border wall funding and adjusting on Obamacare-related items, it appears President Trump is calling Schumer's and Pelosi's bluff, proclaiming "If there's a shutdown, there's a shutdown," adding that Democrats would be to blame if the federal government was left unfunded.

Schumer today:

  • *SCHUMER: TRUMP CONCESSIONS BRING SPENDING DEAL CLOSER TO FINISH
  • *SCHUMER SAYS 'SOME STICKING POINTS' LEFT ON SPENDING BILL TALKS
  • *S...


more from Tyler

ValueWalk

An Earnings Miss? So What?

By Investment Master Class. Originally published at ValueWalk.

By Investment Master Class

“Estimates miss earnings, not vice versa” Market Veteran

An opportunity to purchase a quality business at an attractive prices often presents when a company misses a quarterly number and analysts downgrade their numbers to reflect the lower new estimate.  This seems to have become more prevalent in recent times with investors and analysts having an increasing focus on short time periods, leading to an over-reaction in the share price. Fear, herding and other behavioural factors come into play. However, the key is to remain unemotional ...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

Semiconductors Tick Along

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another quiet day for indices but the Semiconductor index was able to add over 1% on the day. This also helped post gains to the Nasdaq 100, although there was a relative gain for the Semiconductor Index against the latter index.


The Nasdaq 100 registered an accumulation day despite its underperformance against Small Caps. The index remains well placed to make a move to upper channel resistance.

...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Spikes To Record Highs

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

US dollar prices for virtual currencies are soaring. Both Bitcoin ($1343 highs) and Ethereum (as we described previously) are at new record highs as China regulators/exchanges appear to have 'stabilized', fears over the so-called 'hard fork' have abated, and hopes for an ETF have been revived by an SEC review.

Back above the price of gold and at record highs, Bitcoin rallied notably overnight after China's largest bitcoin exchanges introduced a flat 0.2% fee on eac...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

S&P 500; Dangerous place to run out of gas!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could the “Weekly Closing Highs and Lows” of last year, be impacting stock prices in 2017? The Power of the Pattern thinks so! Below looks at the S&P 500 over the past couple of years. where we applied Fibonacci to the “Weekly Closing Highs and Lows” of last year.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The S&P 500 ran into the 161% extension level at (2) and it stopped on a dime, at the end of February. Following a small decline the rally the past two weeks has it testi...



more from Kimble C.S.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



more from M.T.M.

Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



more from Biotech

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>