Posts Tagged ‘Bin Laden’

Afghanistan is a “Lost Cause”; Leaked Documents Show Futility of Afghanistan War

Afghanistan is a "Lost Cause"; Leaked Documents Show Futility of Afghanistan War

KABUL, AFGHANISTAN - JULY 26: Lights adorn buildings as people celebrate the birthday of the 12th Imam, Muhammad al Mahdi on July 26, 2010 in Kabul, Afghanistan. Born on July 29, 869, the Imam is an anointed leader or ruler said to have been the twelfth generation descendant of the prophet Muhammad. It is believed that the Imam will return to earth some day to bring peace. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Mish 

The questions on my mind are: How many trillions of dollars do we have to spend, how many lives need to be wasted, and how much longer are we going to be involved in the boondoggle known as Afghanistan?

Such questions were on my mind even before Leaked Documents Underscore Lawmakers’ Concerns on Afghan War

President Barack Obama faces renewed concern about his Afghanistan war strategy after leaked military documents suggested Pakistan’s main intelligence agency secretly aided the Taliban and others the U.S is trying to defeat.

Disclosure of the documents, as Congress this week considers funding for the U.S. troop buildup in Afghanistan, underscored questions about the war while many lawmakers prepare to go home to campaign in August.

Some of the 92,000 classified reports, disclosed July 25 by the website Wikileaks, say that members of Pakistan’s Inter- Services Intelligence Directorate helped the Taliban and other Islamic rebels. The documents, covering 2004 through 2009, were reported by the New York Times, the London-based Guardian and the German magazine Der Spiegel, which said Wikileaks provided them the reports three weeks ago.

The leaked documents “raise serious questions about the reality of America’s policy toward Pakistan and Afghanistan,” said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat. “Those policies are at a critical stage,” and the documents “make the calibrations needed to get the policy right more urgent.”

‘Not Pretty’

“I’ve been to a number of briefings and I’ve always been provided a more upbeat picture than the one” depicted by the documents, said Representative James McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat who opposes Obama’s Afghan policy. “The picture that is painted here is not pretty.”

Obama announced in December plans to send another 30,000 combat troops to Afghanistan, and Congress is under pressure to pass legislation paying for the buildup before taking its monthlong summer recess. Obama has said he will start to draw down U.S. forces in July 2011 and give more security responsibility to the Afghans, depending on conditions.

Polls show support for the war waning. Almost 6 in 10 respondents in a Bloomberg National Poll conducted July 9-12 said Afghanistan is a lost cause.

Also, 60 percent of Americans surveyed thought the withdrawal of forces should start in July 2011 even if the situation in


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Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Courtesy of Timothy D. Naegele[1]

First World War

“For want of a nail . . .  the kingdom was lost.”[2] Will Greece’s debt crisis lead to a Greek debt default and the collapse of the euro and an ensuing collapse of the 27-member European Union (or EU), and trigger the next round of crashes that will be described by economic historians decades from now as “the Great Depression II”?[3] The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife in Sarajevo, Serbia brought the tensions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia to a head.  In turn, it is said this triggered a chain of international events that embroiled Russia and the major European powers; and World War I broke out in Europe.[4] Will Greece’s debt crisis set a series of events in motion that sends the world into a downward economic spiral of unfathomable proportions?

For years, I have wrestled with the question of whether the Europe would collapse economically, politically, socially and militarily.  Sounds absurd, you say?  The countries are too interwoven and mutually dependent now for that to happen, and at the very least they will muddle along, making the worst of the best situations, and achieving the lowest common denominator?  The United States of Europe, they are not and never will be, but they have achieved a degree of cohesiveness that I never thought was likely years ago.

I believed jealousies and rivalries and, yes, the hatreds of the past would linger barely beneath the surface, coming unglued at the most inopportune times when it really mattered the most.  When the chips were down, I felt the EU would splinter and fall apart; and that its participants and the world would write it off as a noble experiment that failed, much like the League of Nations.  After all, its successor—the United Nations—is considered to be a colossal joke by Americans, many of whom would love to see it shipped to Europe, and its building on the East River in Manhattan bulldozed and turned into a park, or made into co-ops or condominiums.

The bitter hatreds of the past seem to have subsided in Europe though, and it has become a cultural melting pot, more and more.  Airbus was the first tangible sign of economic integration that I never thought would…
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The Military-Industrial Complex is Ruining the Economy

The Military-Industrial Complex is Ruining the Economy

Courtesy of George of Washington’s Blog

Affectionate homecoming

Everyone knows that the too big to fails and their dishonest and footsy-playing regulators and politicians are largely responsible for trashing the economy.

But the military-industrial complex shares much of the blame.

Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says that the Iraq war will cost $3-5 trillion dollars.

Sure, experts say that the Iraq war has increased the threat of terrorism. See this, this, this, this, this, this and this. And we launched the Iraq war based on the false linkage of Saddam and 9/11, and knowingly false claims that Saddam had WMDs. And top British officials, former CIA director George Tenet, former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill and many others say that the Iraq war was planned before 9/11. But this essay is about dollars and cents.

America is also spending a pretty penny in Afghanistan. The U.S. admits there are only a small handful of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. As ABC notes:

U.S. intelligence officials have concluded there are only about 100 al Qaeda fighters in the entire country.

With 100,000 troops in Afghanistan at an estimated yearly cost of $30 billion, it means that for every one al Qaeda fighter, the U.S. will commit 1,000 troops and $300 million a year.

Sure, the government apparently planned the Afghanistan war before 9/11 (see this and this). And the Taliban offered to turn over Bin Laden (see this and this). And we could have easily killed Bin Laden in 2001 and again in 2007, but chose not to, even though that would have saved the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars in costs in prosecuting the Afghanistan war. But this essay is about dollars and cents.

Increasing the Debt Burden of a Nation Sinking In Debt

All of the spending on unnecessary wars adds up.

The U.S. is adding trillions to its debt burden to finance its multiple wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc.

Two top American economists – Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff – show that the more indebted a country is, with…
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Little Known Facts About Afghanistan and Bin Laden

Little Known Facts About Afghanistan and Bin Laden

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog

george bushEvidence which has come out over the last couple of years makes it clear that top Bush administration officials knew that Saddam didn’t have weapons of mass destruction and knew that Saddam had no connection with 9/11.

It is now reasonably obvious that the Bush administration was looking for an excuse to oust Saddam, and – in the words of the Downing Street Memo – “the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy”.

Indeed, former CIA director George Tenet said that the White House wanted to invade Iraq long before 9/11, and inserted "crap" in its justifications for invading Iraq. Former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill – who sat on the National Security Council – also says that Bush planned the Iraq war before 9/11. And top British officials say that the U.S. discussed Iraq regime change long before 9/11 (one month after Bush took office).

Saddam’s Offer

Saddam allegedly offered to let weapons inspectors in the country and to hold new elections:

In the few weeks before its fall, Iraq’s Ba’athist regime made a series of increasingly desperate peace offers to Washington, promising to hold elections and even to allow US troops to search for banned weapons. But the advances were all rejected by the Bush administration, according to intermediaries involved in the talks.

Moreover, Saddam allegedly offered to leave Iraq:

"Fearing defeat, Saddam was prepared to go peacefully in return for £500million ($1billion)".

"The extraordinary offer was revealed yesterday in a transcript of talks in February 2003 between George Bush and the then Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar at the President’s Texas ranch."

"The White House refused to comment on the report last night. But, if verified, it is certain to raise questions in Washington and London over whether the costly four-year war could have been averted."
US Army Military Police Patrol Kandahar

According to the tapes, Bush told Aznar that whether Saddam was still in Iraq or not, "We’ll be in Baghdad by the end of March." See also this and this.

Afghanistan Is Different

But Afghanistan is much different.

As President Obama said Tuesday night as justification…
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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

It hasn't been this bad for US manufacturing since the financial crisis (Business Insider)

The manufacturing recession may not have ended yet.

American companies are 'masking' a $6.6 trillion mountain of debt (Business Insider)

Debt can be a good thing. It gets the wheels of the economy moving.

...



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IMF Demands "Unconditional" Debt Relief for Greece (Mish Says "Prove It")

Courtesy of Mish.

Most political and financial demands are nothing but bluffs or lies.

For example, on May 14, I noted Greece “Demands” Debt Relief, Owes Troika €11+ Billion by July.

That “demand” lasted one week. On May 22, I wrote Despite Depression, Greece Forced to Hike VAT, Add New Taxes.

Today the IMF demanded Europe to Give Greece ‘Unconditional’ D...



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Zero Hedge

Who Is Right Between Oil And Other Commodities: One Hedge Fund's Opinion

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

From Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital

So far in May, base metals and Oil decoupled markedly (chart attached below). While the Oil price kept rising and moved closer to 50$, base metals fell off a cliff and descended below March lows.

We believe that Oil is the errant outlier, helped by deep but temporary supply outages in Canada and Nigeria and all-time record speculative flows, and is more likely to catch down to other commodities going forward rather than the other way ...



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Chart School

Weekly Gasoline Price Update: Regular and Premium Up Again

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

It's time again for our weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The price of Regular and Premium are up six cents each from last week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $2.80 and San Francisco is averaging $2.97. Mississippi has the cheapest at $2.04. The WTIC end of day spot price closed at 48.11, a decline of 0.77 from last week.

How far are we from the interim high prices of 2011 and the all-time highs of 2008? Here's a visual answer.

The n...



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ValueWalk

Bayer Offers to Purchase Monsanto for $62 Billion

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

On Monday, German conglomerate Bayer AG finalized its $62 billion takeover offer for American agrochemical company Monsanto (MON). The acquisition would create the largest agrochemical company in the world. Here is what the sell-side is saying.

Monsanto- Bayer – deals, deals, deals

Jefferies:

At $122/share for Monsanto and no disposals the deal would require BASF to issue equity (Bayer issuing ~25% of the deal value) and would imply a deal ROIC in FY5 of 8.5%, 40bps below their WACC of 8.9% and below the buyback equivalent ROIC of 8.8%. The deal, however, would imply €4.55/share in FCF accretion in FY5 enabling BASF to delever to 0.5x net debt/EBITDA in the same time frame. If they levered back to 1.5x in FY15, we estimate EPS would reach €10.20/share.

…………...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Mining stocks facing triple kiss of resistance test

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The XAU Index is the oldest Gold & Silver mining index in the states, as it started keeping track of Gold & Silver mining stocks in the early 1980’s.

With this index having such a long history, it allows any of us to do pattern analysis going back 30-years. This chart looks at the XAU index over the past 20-years.

Miners have experienced a strong rally so far in...



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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Weekend M&A Chatter

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday May 20 through Sunday May 22, 2016:

Report Yahoo Bid Expected to Bid Only $2B-$3B for Core Business

The Rumor:
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) and others are expected to bid around $2 billion to $3 billion for Yahoo Inc.'s (NASDAQ: YHOO) core Internet business, according to sources as reported by the Wall Street Journal on Friday. That's about 50% of the previous estimates of $5 billion to $8 billion.

Last week Quicken Loans founder Dan Gilbert, with backi...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 16th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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