Posts Tagged ‘BONT’

Thrilling Thursday – Can We Make Another Billion Today?

Wheeeee!  

$1,129,860,000!  That’s how much money was made shorting 376,620 NYMEX contracts at $103 yesterday, as we planned!  Congratulations to those of you who got your share playing along with us and, to the manipulators who got stuck with the bill – screw you bastards, we have your number and we’re going to ring it now!  I called a cash-out at the $100 line in Member Chat as 2.9% was more of a drop than we expected in one day and we will re-load on the bounce as we cross back below the $100.50 line – as discussed in this morning’s Member Chat - assuming the Dollar has bottomed out at 74.35.

This isn’t complicated people – what’s the 2.5% line off of $103?  $100.425.  That’s where we’ll look for oil to consolidate but below that line we’ll be comfortable with our shorts again, looking for those next legs down to $98.88 (down 4%) and then $97.85, where we will once again look for a 20% retrace to $98.88 and then a nice short there when it fails.  So come on – you can play along at home – don’t miss out on making the next $1.129Bn!  

Meanwhile, what’s a 20% bounce off a $3 drop? 60 cents, right?  Where did oil bounce to in the futures?  $100.60?  This is not rocket science folks…  We teach these little tips to our Members every day at Philstockworld.  Sure you may find it disturbing that the chart we drew up (above) in early April is hit almost to the penny on the NYSE yesterday (2 months later) as it halted right on our red line – but that just shows us that Bots are running this market (as we keep telling you) and it also means that we can rely on our ranges and that makes it EASY to make good trading decisions.  

Also in Member Chat last night, I reviewed 8 short put ideas (bullish) that can net us over $3,000 in 15 days if we get a bounce and hold our "Must Hold" levels.  This is the nice thing about hedging – we make money on the way up OR on the way down and, when we are trading in a range – like we hopefully will this summer – then we make money both ways on a regular basis!  Let the market manipulators play their…
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eBay Call Options Active Ahead of Earnings

Today’s tickers: EBAY, NTAP, GT & BONT

EBAY - eBay, Inc. – At least one bullish options strategist is positioning for a rally in eBay’s shares ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report after the final bell on Wednesday. Shares in the operator of online marketplaces increased as much as 3.1% during the first half of the session to secure an intraday high of $32.94. It looks like one or more investors initiated debit call spreads, buying around 2,000 calls at the June $34 strike for an average premium of $1.04 per contract, and selling roughly 2,000 calls up at the June $36 strike at an average premium of $0.44 apiece. The average net cost of buying the spread amounts to $0.60 per contract. Thus, investors employing call spreads start making money in the event that eBay’s shares rally another 5.0% over today’s high of $32.94 to surpass the average breakeven price of $34.60 by expiration day in June. Maximum potential profits of $1.40 per contract are available on the position if the price of the underlying stock jumps 9.3% to exceed $36.00 at expiration. EBAY’s shares secured a 52-week high of $35.35 back on February 17, 2011.

NTAP - NetApp, Inc. – The provider of enterprise storage and data management software and hardware products and services appeared on our scanners today after sizable prints popped up in long-dated call and put options. Shares in NetApp are currently up 2.1% at $52.10 just after 11:45am. The stock was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Sector Perform’ with a 12-month target share price of $64.00 at Pacific Crest this morning. Activity in NetApp LEAPS indicates one options player expects the price of the underlying to improve going forward. It looks like the trader initiated a bullish risk reversal, selling approximately 5,500 puts at the…
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Options Trader Sends Bullish Signal by Enacting Ratio Call Spread on Salesforce.com

Today’s tickers: CRM, CPB, VALE, GDX, CNX, SLV, OSIP, BONT, UA & XRT

CRM – Salesforce.com, Inc. – A large-volume ratio call spread on the provider of customer relationship management services this afternoon implies one options investor expects CRM shares to rally significantly by August expiration. Salesforce.com’s shares increased as much as 1.83% today to reach a new 52-week high of $81.23 during the current session. According to a Reuters report this weekend, analysts at Deutsche Bank maintain their ‘buy’ rating on the stock and raised their share price target on CRM to $110 from $100. The optimistic options trader populating the stock this afternoon purchased 13,000 calls at the August $85 strike for a premium of $5.00 apiece, and sold 26,000 calls at the higher August $100 strike for $1.05 each. Net premium paid by the investor for the transaction amounts to $2.90 per contract. Maximum available profits of $12.10 per contract accumulate for the trader if shares of the underlying stock surge at least 23% from the new 52-week high of $81.23 to reach $100.00 by August expiration. The investor starts to make money as long as CRM’s shares trade above the effective breakeven point at $87.90 ahead of expiration day.

CPB – Campbell Soup Co. – Options traders anticipating a sharp increase in the price of Campbell Soup Co.’s shares by November expiration scooped up record numbers of call options on the global manufacturer and marketer of branded convenience food products today. CPB’s shares traded 0.25% higher in late afternoon trading to $35.45, which is just off their current 52-week high of $35.80 (attained back on December 2, 2009). Campbell-bulls purchased approximately 5,200 calls at the November $40 strike for an average premium of $0.55 per contract. Investors holding these contracts are prepared to profit should Campbell’s share price jump 14.4% from the current price to exceed the average breakeven point to the upside at $40.55. Investors exchanged roughly 5,925 option contracts on CPB during the trading session, which represents 56% of the total existing open interest on the stock of 10,567 lots.

VALE – Vale S.A. – Diverse bullish options strategies employed on Brazilian metals and mining company, Vale S.A., today indicates investors are expecting the price of the iron-ore maker’s shares to appreciate in the next few months. Vale’s shares rallied 1.20% at the start of the session to an intraday high – and new…
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Motorola Business Split Creates Appetite for Options

Today’s tickers: MOT, ALL, BWLD, BONT & X

MOT – Motorola Inc. – The Shares are almost 8% higher at $7.20 on the news that the company will split into two with networks on one side and mobile devices on the other. Shares are on the move because this probably reflects management’s confidence in the turnaround for mobile devices. It appears that one option investor is looking for further upside and placed a 20,000 lot call option spread when shares were trading at about $6.95 this morning. The spread involved the purchase of now in-the-money April call options at the $6.00 strike, which cost $1.12. The buyer sold the same amount of $9.00 strike calls expiring at the same time for 7 cents to reduce the breakeven to $7.05 in two months. It is likely that this investor wants to take a stake in the company now that it’s announced this corporate split and as long as Motorola’s shares stay north of $6.00 in April, he will be able to exercise that option.

ALL – Allstate Corp. – Looks like a substantial amount of call option buying in the home and auto insurer today as its share price holds up relatively well in the face of a 1% loss for the major market averages. At $29.36 shares are off by just a nickel, possibly still sheltered by a 22.7% surge in revenue and earnings that exceeded investor hopes earlier in the week. Call option buying at the April expiration $31 strike has so far totaled more than 22,000 contracts. Buyers paying around 65 cents per contract for rights to get long of shares in the insurer should they rally by more than 5.6% in the next nine weeks are clearly banking on a rebound to the January peak above $31.50. Implied volatility has slumped in the aftermath of earnings further eroding the premiums today.

BWLD – Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. – An earnings miss earlier in the day from the Minneapolis-based restaurant operator attracted option investor attention today. The activity is curious simply because it’s contrarian. The share price slumped more than 12% earlier to $41.28 before steadying to $43.00. The decline in options implied volatility to 37% is twice the decline in the share price and is perhaps behind investors willingness to write almost 2,000 put options at the soon to expire February $40 strike. Premium sellers, who…
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Thrill-Ride Thursday – Retail Sales and Maybe Some Jobs?

Beware the data!

The first thing you will hear this morning is that COST had a 9% rise in sales, with International sales up a whopping 25%.  What you are less likely to hear is that COST sells a lot of gasoline, which has doubled in price since last December and, excluding inflation in gas prices, same-store sales are up just 2%, a tremendous miss of the 7.9% expected.  Out of the 25% increase in International sales, 15% is attributable to currency exchange so up 10% is the real number

This is nothing against Costco, I like that company, but it's a caution sign to look carefully at the retail numbers we're going to be seeing today as there are several outside factors that are skewing the results drastically – to the point where the numbers, whether good or bad, are almost meaningless.  It's also good to keep in mind that we are comping sales to the WORST CHRISTMAS EVER so anything less than double digit gains over last year is still pretty sad. 

Mish did a good job yesterday of pointing out the statistical nonsense known as the Non-Farm Payroll Report, where "Birth/Death" model revisions that were as much as 356,000 a month last year (January) make the data beyond useless for any kind of serious analysis.  Nonetheless, analyze it they will and if we manage to avoid posting our 24th CONSECUTIVE month of losses, surely they will be pouring champagne on CNBC and acting like Capitalism has once again triumphed over evil (evil being people without money who still want to live with dignity). 

 

Speaking of dignity – if you know 100 people in Nevada then, statistically, 3 of them went bankrupt this year, up 61% from last year as our economy "recovers".  In Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, just 2 of your 100 friends filed while California, surprisingly "only" had one in 66 households file for bankruptcy so you can go almost a whole day and not run into someone who lost everything in California – too bad the same can't be said for the State overall!  California needs $21Bn over the next 18 months to keep the lights on.  This doesn't seem so bad, GMAC is losing $13Bn this quarter and we're bailing
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ValueWalk

Bill Nygren: GE clearly 'a swing and a miss'

By Akhlaqahmed9941. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bill Nygren: GE clearly ‘a swing and a miss’ [feedly] ]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Value investor Bill Nygren increases stake in General Electric from CNBC.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Amazon Unveils 20 City Finalists For HQ2, Expects To Create 50,000 Jobs In Winning City

 

Amazon Unveils 20 City Finalists For HQ2, Expects To Create 50,000 Jobs In Winning City

Courtesy of Zero Hedge 

On Thursday morning, Amazon announced that it had reviewed 238 proposals from across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico to host HQ2, the company’s second headquarters in North America, and has has chosen the following 20 metropolitan areas to move to the next phase of the process (in alphabetical order):

  • Atlanta, GA
  • Austin, TX
  • Boston, MA
  • Chica...


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Zero Hedge

Amazon Unveils 20 City Finalists For HQ2, Expects To Create 50,000 Jobs In Winning City

 

Amazon Unveils 20 City Finalists For HQ2, Expects To Create 50,000 Jobs In Winning City

Courtesy of Zero Hedge 

On Thursday morning, Amazon announced that it had reviewed 238 proposals from across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico to host HQ2, the company’s second headquarters in North America, and has has chosen the following 20 metropolitan areas to move to the next phase of the process (in alphabetical order):

  • Atlanta, GA
  • Austin, TX
  • Boston, MA
  • Chica...


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Digital Currencies

How a Criminal Defense Attorney Thinks About Crypto Currency

 

How a Criminal Defense Attorney Thinks About Crypto Currency

Courtesy of 

You are all in for a very special treat today. On the heels of last week’s guest post, in which the Unassuming Banker looked at crypto from a traditional IB’s view, I’ve got a new guest post from a friend of mine who is about to give you a perspective on the nascent asset class you’ve not read before. 

...



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Insider Scoop

AlarmCom Is A Rare Home Automation, IoT Play, Jefferies Says In Upgrade

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ALRM The Market In 5 Minutes: Jobless Claims Fall, Walmart Upgrade, Cryptocurrencies 38 Biggest Movers From Yesterday ...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals...



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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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