Posts Tagged ‘Brett Arends’

The Dominique Strauss-Kahn Case and Your Investments

By Brett Arends

There are some simple lessons from all this. The Dominique Strauss-Kahn case hammers them home.

We should never assume the crowd, or "everyone else," or the market is right or even rational. Five hundred ill-informed opinions don’t amount to a hill of beans.

We should always listen to what contrarians have to say especially when they sound most ridiculous, and especially when they are being shouted down. We should never trust any judgments reached quickly.

In reaching our own conclusions, we should fight the urge to join the crowd. We should take our time, do our own homework and make up our own minds. There is no hurry.

We should always be willing to change our minds if need be. This is the hardest thing to do. We constantly have to remind ourselves that we could be wrong.

Full article here: The Dominique Strauss-Kahn Case and Your Investments – SmartMoney.com.


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Is A Market Crash Coming? The WSJ Ponders…

Is A Market Crash Coming? The WSJ Ponders…

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In a unorthodox piece by the WSJ, which goes direct to discussing some of the less than pleasant possible outcomes of central planning, Brett Arends asks "could Wall Street be about to crash again? This week’s bone-rattlers may be making you wonder" and says: "way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out." And without further ado…

  1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That’s well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you’re getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you’re not?
  2. The Fed is getting nervous. This week it warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. That should drive down long-term interest rates. Great news for mortgage borrowers. But hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already north of 10000.
  3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that’s reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true.
  4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, it’s affecting wages too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, last quarter, workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if people owe way too much money.
  5. People still owe way too much money. Households, corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam. It’s the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S.


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The New IPad Is Here!

Could Apple sell 2 million units of the new tablet at $600 each to generate $1.2 billion in 2010? Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster thinks they will.Apple generated almost $35B in revenue during the last 12 months.  If Munster is correct, the tablet could have a nice 3%+ impact on revenue and improve year-over-year revenue growth.Expectations are that it will be similar to the iPod touch but larger and capable of running most of the iPhone Apps and include a 3G cellular modem.Huge discussion on TechMeme.Kara Swisher / BoomTown:   The Jesus Tablet Will Walk on Water and Turn Fishes Into Moneyinternetnews.com:   Apple Touchscreen ‘iPad’ Could Take on NetbooksEric Slivka / MacRumors:   New Analyst Mockup and Sales Estimates for Apple’s TabletThe Mac Observer:   Analyst: Apple Tablet Worth $1.2 BillionDerek Thompson / The Atlantic Business Channel:   Apple Tablet: Super E-Reader or Super Mini-Computer?Finally I'm getting my IPad! 

It was almost a year ago when I said to members on Dec 30th: "AAPL just announced a deal to do Ebooks on IPhones and ITouch and that is the intermediate step towards the IPad, which should be a 2-3x size version of the IPhone that takes the place of a Kindle or a laptop or a notepad or…"

At the time AAPL was trading at a paltry $86 a share and we were BUYBUYBUYing.  The context of that chat comment was AAPL had been under attack on the Steve Jobs health concerns and Jim Cramer was "fomenting" a rumor that AAPL was going to issue a warning on Q4, which I referred to as "typical pre-holiday BS….  Day before a holiday, little chance of getting a confirmation or denial from AAPL as key execs aren’t reachable."  As AAPL continued to fall, we continued to buy because IT DID NOT CHANGE OUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK ON THE COMPANY.  I went on to say:

Notice the timing of this article that hit the Mac Daily News at 12:09, just ahead of the rumors.  This way, the hyenas who plant the rumors cause GOOG to bring up a "legitimate" news story concerning Jobs’ health to make the whole thing seem legitimate.  Don’t forget MacWorld is next week and these attacks often occur ahead of AAPL events.

Here’s some real news on AAPL, IPhone browser share jumped 36% Christmas week.  57% of all mobile browser requests came from IPhones, up from 42% the week before Xmas so either a lot of people opened up IPhones under the tree or they are just so darn usesful that people who are home for the holidays use their IPhone like a computer

If you want the real lowdown on the Cramer conspiracy, don't take my word for it, Apple Insider got the goods on him by March 13th of this year but, by then Apple was back at $95 and on it's way back to $170 already.  As fundamental investors, you just have to know when to put your foot down!  Apple Insider is a great read but here is the part you MUST know if you want to understand why we love to go against what the Crookmeister General says to
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News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Stock Bubbles, Bond Busts Make Credit Suisse’s Ambush List (Bloomberg)

An equity bubble in Japan, Treasury yields at 4 percent and Marine Le Pen in the Elysee Palace all feature in Credit Suisse Group AG’s annual roundup of shocks that could surprise markets in the year ahead.

Any country leaving euro zone must settle bill first: ECB's Draghi (Reuters)

Any country leaving the euro zone would need to settle its claims or debts with the bloc's payments system before severing ties, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Stock Bubbles, Bond Busts Make Credit Suisse’s Ambush List (Bloomberg)

An equity bubble in Japan, Treasury yields at 4 percent and Marine Le Pen in the Elysee Palace all feature in Credit Suisse Group AG’s annual roundup of shocks that could surprise markets in the year ahead.

Any country leaving euro zone must settle bill first: ECB's Draghi (Reuters)

Any country leaving the euro zone would need to settle its claims or debts with the bloc's payments system before severing ties, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said.

...

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Zero Hedge

Trump's Declaration Of War: 12 Things He Must Do For America To Be Great Again

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President Trump’s brief inaugural speech was a declaration of war against the entirety of the American Ruling Establishment. All of it.

As Paul Craig Roberts details, Trump made it abundantly clear that Americans’ enemies are right here at home: globalists, neoliberal economists, neoconservatives and other unilateralists accustomed to imposing the US on the world and involving us in endless and expensive wars, politicians who serve the Rulin...



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ValueWalk

Great Interviews: The Psychology of Human Misjudgement Charlie Munger

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Great Interviews: The Psychology of Human Misjudgement Charlie Munger

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The post Great Interviews...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Mr. President you want this to hold, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Consumer Confidence of late has continued to move higher, now reaching above the highs hit back in 2007. Long-Term S&P 500 returns are far below historical norms, when confidence is this high. We are not saying that high consumer confidence means the market is at a top!

Below is a look at the Advance/Decline line on a short-term basis.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Joe Friday Just The Facts; It could be important for support to hold, of this bearish rising wedge above.

...

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Chart School

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

Courtesy of Declan.

Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,


The S&P took a modest loss, but not enough to break it out of its consolidation. Volume was also lighter. With the Russell 2000 on the way down, it's suggesting the S&P will follow suit....

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Members' Corner

How To Poop At Work?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Once again it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo". 

In our last episode, How to Poop On A Date? we were graced with a delicate shituation: what ever to do when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".

This week in How to Poop At Work? ,what to do when your at a big fancy pants meeting, when out of nowhere, you need to download a brown load?



...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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