Posts Tagged ‘Brett Arends’

The Dominique Strauss-Kahn Case and Your Investments

By Brett Arends

There are some simple lessons from all this. The Dominique Strauss-Kahn case hammers them home.

We should never assume the crowd, or "everyone else," or the market is right or even rational. Five hundred ill-informed opinions don’t amount to a hill of beans.

We should always listen to what contrarians have to say especially when they sound most ridiculous, and especially when they are being shouted down. We should never trust any judgments reached quickly.

In reaching our own conclusions, we should fight the urge to join the crowd. We should take our time, do our own homework and make up our own minds. There is no hurry.

We should always be willing to change our minds if need be. This is the hardest thing to do. We constantly have to remind ourselves that we could be wrong.

Full article here: The Dominique Strauss-Kahn Case and Your Investments –

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Is A Market Crash Coming? The WSJ Ponders…

Is A Market Crash Coming? The WSJ Ponders…

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In a unorthodox piece by the WSJ, which goes direct to discussing some of the less than pleasant possible outcomes of central planning, Brett Arends asks "could Wall Street be about to crash again? This week’s bone-rattlers may be making you wonder" and says: "way too many people are way too complacent this summer. Here are 10 reasons to watch out." And without further ado…

  1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically-adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That’s well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you’re getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you’re not?
  2. The Fed is getting nervous. This week it warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. That should drive down long-term interest rates. Great news for mortgage borrowers. But hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already north of 10000.
  3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that’s reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true.
  4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, it’s affecting wages too. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, last quarter, workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if people owe way too much money.
  5. People still owe way too much money. Households, corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam. It’s the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S.

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The New IPad Is Here!

Could Apple sell 2 million units of the new tablet at $600 each to generate $1.2 billion in 2010? Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster thinks they will.Apple generated almost $35B in revenue during the last 12 months.  If Munster is correct, the tablet could have a nice 3%+ impact on revenue and improve year-over-year revenue growth.Expectations are that it will be similar to the iPod touch but larger and capable of running most of the iPhone Apps and include a 3G cellular modem.Huge discussion on TechMeme.Kara Swisher / BoomTown:   The Jesus Tablet Will Walk on Water and Turn Fishes Into   Apple Touchscreen ‘iPad’ Could Take on NetbooksEric Slivka / MacRumors:   New Analyst Mockup and Sales Estimates for Apple’s TabletThe Mac Observer:   Analyst: Apple Tablet Worth $1.2 BillionDerek Thompson / The Atlantic Business Channel:   Apple Tablet: Super E-Reader or Super Mini-Computer?Finally I'm getting my IPad! 

It was almost a year ago when I said to members on Dec 30th: "AAPL just announced a deal to do Ebooks on IPhones and ITouch and that is the intermediate step towards the IPad, which should be a 2-3x size version of the IPhone that takes the place of a Kindle or a laptop or a notepad or…"

At the time AAPL was trading at a paltry $86 a share and we were BUYBUYBUYing.  The context of that chat comment was AAPL had been under attack on the Steve Jobs health concerns and Jim Cramer was "fomenting" a rumor that AAPL was going to issue a warning on Q4, which I referred to as "typical pre-holiday BS….  Day before a holiday, little chance of getting a confirmation or denial from AAPL as key execs aren’t reachable."  As AAPL continued to fall, we continued to buy because IT DID NOT CHANGE OUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK ON THE COMPANY.  I went on to say:

Notice the timing of this article that hit the Mac Daily News at 12:09, just ahead of the rumors.  This way, the hyenas who plant the rumors cause GOOG to bring up a "legitimate" news story concerning Jobs’ health to make the whole thing seem legitimate.  Don’t forget MacWorld is next week and these attacks often occur ahead of AAPL events.

Here’s some real news on AAPL, IPhone browser share jumped 36% Christmas week.  57% of all mobile browser requests came from IPhones, up from 42% the week before Xmas so either a lot of people opened up IPhones under the tree or they are just so darn usesful that people who are home for the holidays use their IPhone like a computer

If you want the real lowdown on the Cramer conspiracy, don't take my word for it, Apple Insider got the goods on him by March 13th of this year but, by then Apple was back at $95 and on it's way back to $170 already.  As fundamental investors, you just have to know when to put your foot down!  Apple Insider is a great read but here is the part you MUST know if you want to understand why we love to go against what the Crookmeister General says to
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Zero Hedge

America's "Two-Party System" Has Jumped The Shark

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by JP Sottile via,

The Alfred E. Smith dinner is supposed to put a bipartisan bow on the gift of American democracy. For decades, the well-heeled and well-connected have come together to laugh at and with the chosen presidential candidates from the two wings of the governing duopoly. It’s meant to be a reminder that they are all in the same ...

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Market News

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Financial Markets and Economy

The Biggest Money Mistakes We Make—Decade by Decade (The Wall Street Journal)

Our relationship to money changes as we get older. So do the mistakes that we make with it.

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Slide Most Since July on Warm Midwest (Bloomberg)

U.S. natural gas futures slid the most since July, dragging shares of most major producers down as warmer-than-average weather in the Midwest prompted speculation that a mild winter will curtail demand for the heating fuel.


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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.

Date Found: Sunday, 10 April 2016, 01:58:50 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: Pay attention : www.thefelderrepo...

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Comment: RTT: Who owns the SP500?

Date Found: Monday, 11 April 2016, 03:53:00 PM...

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Phil's Favorites

The Biggest Risk of a Clinton Presidency


The Biggest Risk of a Clinton Presidency

Courtesy of Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism

Hillary Clinton will be a one term President. The reason I say this is because I suspect that her economic plan will not be very stimulative and I think that four more years of weak economic growth will be intolerable. And the main driver of my thinking here is deeply rooted in Bill Clinton’s presidency.

Back in the late 90’s the US government ran a brief budget surplus. It was heralded as an act of “fiscal responsibility” at the time. Of course, when the economy tanked immediately following the surplus the government was driven back in the red as tax receipts cratered and automatic spending jumped.


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Global Asset Management 3Q16 - Cash is a Capital Allocation Strategy

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Global Asset Management commentary for the quarter ended September 30, 2016.

Also see


Dear Friends,

Year-to-date we’v...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 24th,2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks- This is putting a smile on this sector

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Historically, when strong bull markets have taken place, Banks go along for the ride. Since the summer of 2014, banks have under performed the broad market by around 12%, as the S&P is just a couple of percent from all-time highs. Are banks about to act healthier and put a smile on this sector, which could help the S&P breakout above the 2,150 level?

Below looks at the Bank Index (BKX)



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Members' Corner

World Series 2016

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

The good news... Waiting since 1945, after 71 years, the Chicago Cubs have a chance to win their first WS since 1908.  The bad news... The Cubs face an Indian's team that has been waiting since 1948 to win a WS and last appeared in 1997.

CLE swept BOS, and took out TOR who had swept TEX, and has only lost ONE post season game.  That being Game 4 ALCS at TO, yet, during that series, no Indians starting pitcher made it through more than six innings. 

In fact, Trevor Bauer, only lasted two outs during his one start, leaving Merritt and the pen to bear the burden of over eight innings of baseball.  Mid range reliever Merritt notched a victory in that game with ERA 1.80; WHIP 0.60 with 5 IP. 

What does all that tell you? Oddly enough, without Carr...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.


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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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