Demand For PepsiCo Options Bubbles Over As Shares Fizzle
by Option Review - July 21st, 2011 5:56 pm
Today’s tickers: PEP, CAKE, GNW & WAG
PEP - PepsiCo, Inc. – Options traders flocked to PepsiCo to initiate bearish stances on the global food, snack and beverage company today, with shares in the Purchase, NY-based Company sliding as much as 5.4% to a session low of $64.79. Shares in the world’s largest snack-food maker fell after the company said profit growth this year will be lower than previously estimated. PepsiCo reported second-quarter earnings of $1.21 a share ahead of the bell this morning, which met average analyst expectations for the quarter. The full-year revision from the company spurred seemingly outright bearish players to its options. Investors appear to be selling calls in the front month, as well as in the September contract, to pocket available premium in the expectation that shares are unlikely to recover in the near term. More than 4,700 now in-the-money calls changed hands at the August $65 strike against paltry previously existing open interest of just 398 contracts. Investors sold the bulk of the options to pocket an average premium of $1.18 a-pop. Call sellers keep the full amount of premium as long as PEP’s shares slip beneath $65.00 by expiration day next month. Bearish sentiment spread to the August $67.5 strike where another 2,000 calls sold for an average premium of $0.38 per contract. Traders also sold the majority of calls exchanged at the September $65 and $67.5 strikes today. PepsiCo put options are on the move, as well. Investors selling some 1,500 of the August $62.5 strike puts at an average premium of $0.30 each appear to expect shares to maintain above that level through August expiration. Implied volatility on PepsiCo is down 6.8% to stand at 13.88% post-earnings.
CAKE - The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – Options trading patterns on the…
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DiggContrarian Strategist Eyes Owens-Illinois Call Options
by Option Review - June 15th, 2011 4:52 pm
Today’s tickers: OI, CAKE, XLK & HRB
OI - Owens-Illinois, Inc. – The world’s largest maker of glass bottles reduced its second-quarter profit margin forecast citing higher costs and weaker demand in Australia. The market’s reaction to the Ohio-based company’s revised estimates was swift, with shares in Owens-Illinois sliding ahead of the opening bell this morning. Shares are currently down 10.3% at $26.50 just after 11:30am on the East Coast. Despite the sharp pullback in OI’s shares today it seems the glass is still half-full for one optimistic player taking a medium-term bullish stance on the stock. The contrarian trader picked up 2,000 calls at the August $29 strike at a premium of $0.85 per contract. OI’s calls are available at a steep discount today with the August $29 strike calls trading at $0.85 today down from $1.75 apiece on Tuesday. The call buyer makes money if shares in Owens-Illinois surge 12.6% over the current price of $26.50 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $29.85 at expiration. Options implied volatility on the stock shot up 23.7% to arrive at 33.23% by 11:45am.
CAKE - The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – Shares in the operator of casual full-service restaurants may be headed lower over the next four months according to investors initiating bearish options trades on the stock today. Cheesecake Factory’s shares are currently down 0.80% to stand at $30.54 as of 11:05am in New York. Traders employed debit put spreads in the October contract, buying 1,500 puts at the October $30 strike for an average premium of $2.20 each, and selling the same number of puts at the lower October $25 strike at an average premium of $0.62 a-pop. Bears hungry for a CAKE pullback paid an average net premium of $1.58 for the spread. Investors are poised to profit should…
Weekend Reading – Reviewing the Reviews
by Phil - January 1st, 2011 8:28 am
I am still trying to get more bullish.
I was thinking about writing something cute like I resolve to get more bullish but that would be wrong. I try, in my own humble way, to "get" the market right. That means I am not bullish or bearish but Truthish (to further botch Stephen Colbert’s use of the word) and, as Buddah says: "There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth; not going all the way, and not starting." Confucious reminds us that there are three methods by which we may learn wisdom: "First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest."
In that spirit, we will spend the day in reflection so that we are better able to start on that long road to the truth so that we will be better able to imitate the things that will work in the year to come while trying to avoid making mistakes that will give us bitter experiences.
This post is not about me – We had a fantastic year and I’ve already given some outlook for 2011 back on the 19th in that weekend’s "It’s Never too Early to Predict the Future" and our current position is short-term bearish in the Jan-April time-frame, looking for a pullback to at least 1,200 on the S&P and possibly back to 1,150.
After that, we are expecting a return to steady gains but without the irrational exuberance we’re currently experiencing. So no, I am not bearish – I simply think we’ve gotten ahead of ourselves. Since we don’t know where the rally train will stop, we have our "Breakout Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" from Dec 11th, which were a set of very bullish, highly levered plays where a little bet can pay off a lot if we simply hold our long-established breakout levels.
How much is "a lot"? Well my GE trade idea, for example, was to sell the 2013 $12.50 puts for $1.10 (net $1.15 in ordinary margin according to TOS) and to use that money to buy the 2012 $17.50/20 bull call spread for .95, which was a net .15 credit on a $2.50 spread that was on the money at the time. GE has gained about .75 since the 11th and…
Testy Tuesday – Topping or Popping?
by Phil - December 28th, 2010 8:24 am
Looks like we picked the wrong week to short FCX!
Copper hit a new all-time high in Shanghai this morning (as the guy who owns 90% of London’s closed for the holiday exchange supplies sold it to himself for more money than he did yesterday) and gold is back at $1,400 in the futures and that should give us a better entry on FCX puts than we expected for round 2 but Paul Krugman has me worried now that maybe commodity prices are just high because the World hasn’t got enough of them to go around. Usually Paul and I agree but i think he may be discounting the effect of a 10% decline in the dollar a little too much – which is understandable as he is still arguing for more stimulus while I’m arguing that the way they are stimulating now is causing this problem and can not and should not be sustained.
Still, we have to be pragmatic. That’s why, this weekend, I posted our "Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2011" as a follow-on to the "Breakout Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" ideas of the 11th and, in the week between the two, we had bullish bets on HMY, XLF, CAKE, TNA, IWM, CCJ, CHK, EXC, TNA, XLF, UNG, GLD, AAPL, GLW, TOT and AXP – which I had mentioned on the 19th in the weekend post "It’s Never too Early to Predict the Future." Just because I think there’s going to be a disaster doesn’t mean we can’t go with the flow while we wait, right?
We don’t have to like the market to buy it above our breakout lines but we do need to keep in mind that this is a very thin rally that is very likely nothing but window dressing aimed at dragging money off the sidelines so the IBanks who have been propping up the markets can, once again, stick the retail shareholders with the bag as they load up on puts (watch the VIX to confirm) and crash the markets once again. I’ve seen it happen in 1999, I saw it happen in 2008 and, both times, the rally lasted longer than seemed logical but the smart play was to hit and run – not to leave your money on the table but to participate in the upswings and then…
Weekend Reading – It’s Never Too Early to Predict the Future!
by Phil - December 19th, 2010 7:57 am
Barron’s already has the 2011 Outlook on the Cover.
We were discussing the generally bullish in Member Chat and Barfinger said "So, Phil, what is your response to the bullish preview?" That was a great question because it made me think. Does he expect a "rebuttal"? I can understand that as I’ve been fairly bearish but let’s not confuse caution (I called for a cash out when the Dow hit 11,200 in early November, it peaked at 11,444 on the 5th and closed Friday at 11,491) with bearishness – it’s just that my now 45 days of running around saying "the sky is falling" while it stays in place does make me seem like a perma-bear.
The "October Overbought Eight" was my first bearish virtual portfolio since April 28th’s "Hedging for Disaster – 5 Plays that Make 500% if the Market Falls" (and it did, and they did). THAT was a bearish outlook! We are not that bearish here, otherwise it would have been the easiest thing in the World to re-up those plays for the new year. We expect a correction, but hopefully not the kind we had between May 4th and July 2nd, where the Dow dropped 1,600 points in just over 2 months. We are HOPING for a nice 20% pullback off the 15% gain from 9,800 to 11,270 back to the 11,000 line and holding that would make us very bullish going into next year.
That would be 1,180 on the S&P (the declining 200 dma) and just 5% down from Friday’s close – THAT’s how bearish I am! Where we are now is simply where the 5% Rule told us we’d be back on May 5th, where the chart pointed out that 1,240 is 20% off the upper, non-spike consolidation at 1,550 that marked the high for the S&P. 20% is the most powerful level in the 5% Rule and that’s why it’s been safer to wait and see how this line resolves than place long-term bets in either direction into the slow and volatile holidays.
Obviously, I am fairly convinced that Global "leaders" are making all sorts of policy mistakes handling the economy and I do believe it will all end in disaster but that does NOT mean I am market bearish.
Think if it this way: If you come across a…
Strangle Strategist Sees Range-Bound Shares at The Cheesecake Factory
by Option Review - September 7th, 2010 4:03 pm
Today’s tickers: CAKE, LVS, IYR, TEVA, EEM, S, CREE & EXPE
CAKE – The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – One premium-hungry options strategist sold a strangle on the full-service dining restaurants operator this afternoon in the expectation that its shares are set to trade within a narrow range through October expiration. Cheesecake Factory’s shares fell 1.45% late in the session to trade at $25.38 by 3:35 pm ET. The investor sold 3,000 puts at the October $25 strike for premium of $1.05 apiece and sold 3,000 calls at the October $26 strike at a premium of $1.05 each in order to pocket gross premium of $2.10 per contract. Full retention of the premium received today occurs as long as shares of the underlying stock trade between $25.00 and $26.00 through October expiration. Wayward shifts in the price of CAKE’s shares could give this strangle-player a severe stomachache as losses start to build should shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $28.10, or if shares dip under the lower breakeven point at $22.90, ahead of expiration day in October.
LVS – Las Vegas Sands Corp. – Shares in casino resort operator Las Vegas Sands commenced the session in the red but rallied in afternoon trading to stand 1.05% higher on the day at $31.32 as of 3:45 pm ET. Earlier in the day shares increased as much as 1.5% to secure a new 52-week high of $31.46. One long-term bullish investor hoping to see continued appreciation in the price of the underlying stock established a covered call in the March 2011 contract. The trader sold 10,000 calls at the March 2011 $40 strike for premium of $1.73 per contract. The transaction had a delta of .30 and was tied to the purchase of LVS shares at $31.20 each. Premium received on the sale of the calls effectively reduces the price paid by the investor to get long the stock. The bullish player is poised to accumulate maximum potential gains of 35.7% on the run up in LVS shares from an effective purchase price of $29.47 to $40.00 if the calls land in-the-money at expiration and the underlying position is called away from the trader at that time.
IYR – iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF – The construction of a debit put spread on the IYR, an exchange-traded fund that corresponds to the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index…
Massive Ratio Call Spread Established on Citigroup, Inc.
by Option Review - May 26th, 2010 4:24 pm
Today’s tickers: C, NOK, XLF, ETFC, TXT, GE, JPM, JCG, AMR, PRU & CAKE
C – Citigroup, Inc. – A large-volume ratio call spread enacted on Citigroup during the first half of the trading session suggests one big player is positioning for continued share price appreciation through July expiration. Citigroup’s shares gained as much as 6.6% earlier in the session to reach an intraday high of $4.03, but are currently up a more modest 2.65% on the day at $3.88 as of 3:55 pm (ET). The bullish investor paid a net premium of $0.19 per contract to purchase roughly 66,000 calls at the July $4.0 strike, and sell about 132,000 calls at the higher July $5.0 strike price. The spread positions the trader to make money above the breakeven price of $4.19 through July expiration. Maximum potential profits of $0.81 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if Citi’s shares jump 28.9% over the current price of $3.88 to settle at $5.00 at expiration.
NOK – Nokia Corp. – Options traders populating Nokia Corp. today sold in- and out-of-the-money calls on the world’s largest maker of mobile phones with shares of the underlying stock trading 2.35% lower to $9.99 with 40 minutes remaining ahead of the closing bell. Finland-based Nokia retained its ranking as one of the two greenest major electronics makers at Greenpeace International along with Sony Ericsson Mobile Communications AB. Call sellers roamed across several expiries on the mobile phone maker, spreading pessimistic sentiment along the way. Near-term bears doubting Nokia’s shares will rebound any time soon shed 6,700 calls at the June $10 strike to take in an average premium of $0.50 per contract. Approximately 8,300 calls were sold at the July $10 strike price for an average premium of $0.70 apiece. Investors selling the contracts keep the premium received as long as Nokia’s shares trade below $10.00 through expiration in June/July. Uber-pessimistic traders shed 3,700 in-the-money call options at the October $9.0 strike to take in an average premium of $1.67 per contract. Nokia’s shares must fall another 9.90% from the current price of $9.99 to breach the $9.00-level. In-the-money call sellers keep the premium if Nokia’s share price does not exceed $9.00 at expiration. Finally, bearish investors sold 5,600 calls at the October $10 strike for an average premium of $1.10 each, 4,800 calls at the October $11 strike for an average premium of $0.64 a-pop,…
Weekend Wipe Out – All the Way Back to Mid-November Lows!
by Phil - January 23rd, 2010 11:36 am
Well I hate to say I told you so but…
No wait, that’s nonsense – what market prognosticator doesn’t love to say "I told you so"? Actually, it’s kind of my job to tell you so and the reason I’m so popular is because, more often than not, when I tell you so, I tend to be right. I’m not right all the time and my single biggest flaw is I am often right but sometimes way too early and timing is EVERYTHING in the markets. It’s not good enough to tell you what is going to happen (give things enough time and everything happens eventually, right Cramer?) - I need to get the period right as well so we can turn it into an actionable trading idea that makes money.
As a fundamentalist, I didn’t like the entire last 500 points of the rally. I had predicted the market would finish the year at 10,200 way back when it was down at 8,650 when the idea was we’d have a Santa Clause rally to 20% (10,380) and then a 20% pullback of that run (346) into Jan earnings that would take us back to 10,034 so the entire run from 10,200 to 10,700 REALLY annoyed me. It didn’t annoy me just because it made me wrong – I’m wrong a lot and I’m old enough to have learned how to deal with it. What annoyed me was the manipulation as, clearly, the fundamentals in no way, shape or form justified the additional 5% move up.
I’ve gone on and on about how fake the move was and how manipulated the markets were and how artificial the support was and I think I’ve pulled out the Seinfeld "fake, Fake, FAKE" clip often enough now that I don’t even have to do a link (but I love it, so I do) or explain how it’s a metaphor for recent market activity so I’m not going to waste our valuable time here. Let’s just do a review of the recent action, which is my best way of preparing for the upcoming Members only post where I’ll be charting out new levels and coming up with action plans for the week ahead.
So don’t read this if you can’t stand to hear "I told you so" because this is the review post and I did tell you so!
When did things go wrong? Clearly they were wrong for ages but when…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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