by Chart School - June 15th, 2010 12:01 am
Courtesy of Allan
Below is a Weekly chart of UNG which as of today is in BUY PENDING mode. This means that if UNG closes the week at or above current levels, it will trigger a Weekly BUY Signal.
Not only is the Weekly Trend Model closing in on a fresh BUY, the requirements of an Advanced GET Mechanical Buy Signal are also present. Those requirements are:
(1) Measured five wave decline;
(2) Divergence in Elliott Oscillator (lower study);
(3) Break-out above Trend Regression Channels.
You can see on the above chart that the Trend Regression Channel from the previous wave iv high is coming in this week right at the Trend Model Reversal Level, so again if prices close the week at or above current levels, both the Trend Model as well as the Advanced GET mechanical Buy Signals will be confirmed.
*****
Here’s a longer-term chart which shows the wave count discussed above. The higher 4 is part of the earlier wave count 1, 2, 3, circled with dark blue. – Ilene]
Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount to try his "Trend Following Trading Model. Click here. For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.
by Chart School - June 9th, 2010 11:16 am
Courtesy of Mish
The time scales are different, but the similarities in the historical DOW chart and a recent 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 are amazingly alike.
click on chart for sharper image
Although these types of direct historical comparisons have limited trading value, it is still interesting to see similar patterns repeat now and then. The market action from the high in April matches the market action from the October 1929 high almost perfectly (albeit on different time scales).
Should the pattern continue you might expect something like this.
Dow October 1929 – July 1933
click on chart for sharper image
The first chart ended October 1930, where the above red arrow starts. I am not calling for the pattern to continue, but I am certainly open to the idea that it could.
by Chart School - May 24th, 2010 2:34 pm
Courtesy of Allan
The look of love is in your eyes
A look your smile can’t disguise
The look of love is saying so much more than just words could ever say
And what my heart has heard, well it takes my breath away
This is the 60_minute DJIA, still entrenched in a short-term SELL, despite market strength over the past couple of days.
Same holds true for the 240_minute DJIA, still well into SELL MODE.
I consider this the most important of the three charts. It’s a Daily DJIA that suggests the decline of the past few weeks is unfinished. Note that there are several hundred DJIA points to go before this Daily trend is even threatened. That’s where the 60 & 240 minute charts come in, early warning systems which haven’t yet been triggered.
Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model,” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here. For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.
by Chart School - May 20th, 2010 3:17 pm
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
We’re oversold, but not at good historical
Courtesy of reader JG via Credit Suisse
by Chart School - May 17th, 2010 7:46 pm
Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN
Both Gold and Silver bullion have inverse H&S formations ‘working’ on their weekly charts with the breakouts above their current necklines.
As is easily seen on the gold chart below, this bull market move is a series of inverse head and shoulders bottoming formation as the gold bull struggles to rise against determined shorting from the bullion banks. Each formation is more properly called a ‘consolidation formation in an uptrend’ rather than a bottom.
Gold is currently above the neckline which is around $1200. While it remains above this neckline, the target for this leg of the move would be $1350 as a minimum measuring objective.
If the price breaks below 1200 it is no longer an active formation, but it remains potential while the price is above 1044.
Silver is much more volatile than gold, with a significantly higher risk beta. This is important to note if you are using any sort of leverage, including miners that have a heavy exposure to silver.
Silver has a massive inverse H&S bottom, that is ‘working’ while it is above 18.80. The target for this move is around $30 per ounce. But it remains valid and potential while the price of silver is above 16.
If the price of silver falls below 18.80 then the formation is not active.
The relationship between the miners and the bullion is leveraged, with a beta exposure to the SP 500. Further, gold is a more pure currency play than silver, which has a partial correlation to its industrial use.
It should be noted that in our opinion both markets are being subjected to significant manipulation by large short interests, which are particularly concentrated in the case of silver, and especially stubborn and ‘official’ in the case of gold, involving the central banks. This is our judgement based on the circumstantial evidence.
We also suspect that the Fed is buying across the US Treasury curve, but especially at the longer durations, and that the Treasury and Fed are working with one or more groups to support the equity markets primarily through the SP futures.
This adds quite a bit to the picture, although it is difficult to forecast since it is not natural market action and can distort the trends, but only in the short term.
by Chart School - May 3rd, 2010 1:39 pm
The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) finished the week sharply higher gaining $2.17 by the close on Friday. Obviously when there is fear in the air many traders and investors will run to gold for safety. Last week the global markets faced more problems out of Europe as Greece, Portugal, and Spain are all on the brink of bankruptcy. Week after week traders and investors hear discussions regarding a bailout plan in the European Union that seems to never happen. As long as central banks around the world continue to print money in order to bailout countries gold will be in demand. Last week we stated that as long as gold remains above our black descending trendline it would be bullish and that still remains the case – we nailed the gold trade last week for nice gains, among others. The weekly resistance levels for the GLD are $117.00 and $121.00. The weekly support levels for the GLD are $113,00 and $110.00.
The United
…
by Chart School - April 26th, 2010 1:17 pm
Here’s Pragcap’s weekly report on insider trends. I added several charts from Insider Cow below. These charts show the lack of insider buying very graphically. The decline in the buying/selling ratio appears to be due to extremely low levels of buying, because the selling is not at particularly high levels. – Ilene
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
Negative trends in insider transactions were little changed on the week as insiders remain heavy sellers of their own shares while purchasing next to none. Total
The 4 week moving average fell slightly to $6.36MM – a near low since the economy troughed in 2008. Insiders have remained skeptics of their own corporations despite recent signs of recovery.
Notable buying:
Notable selling:
Source: FinViz
Insider Charts from Insider Cow:
by Zero Hedge - April 25th, 2010 11:46 am
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Submitted by Toby O’Conner of GoldScents
Let me start off by saying the market should be correcting. Sentiment has reached ridiculous bullish extremes, the kind of extremes that led to the January /February correction.
That correction separated the second leg of the bull from the third. But let’s face it, sentiment has been in this condition for several weeks now and the best we could muster was a minor correction of 30 points on the news the SEC was filing charges against Goldman Sachs for fraud.
We’ve had three opportunities to “sell the news” with the April jobs report and recently with INTC and AAPL earnings. None of them have panned out. The market could use the Greek excuse as a downside catalyst, the same as it did in January. And now Greek short term bonds are tanking as the EU waffles about writing that check in front of the German elections in May.
All in all it boils down to the market has had every chance to correct and it has failed to do so.
Last month I speculated that we were On the Brink of an Asset Explosion. Well, we may not be on the brink anymore. We may very well be moving into the heart of the explosion right now.
We’ve just seen one of the most powerful rallies out of a corrective low in many years. Until Friday the market had held above the 10 day moving average 42 days in a row. That’s the longest stretch in over 10 years. Since the February 5th low the market has risen 71% of the time. That’s the kind of stuff parabolic blow off tops are made of.
I don’t really think we are in a parabolic blow off top just yet. What I do think is that we may have entered a runaway move similar to the August 06 to February 07 time frame.
During a runaway move, corrections tend to be uniform in both magnitude and duration. During the 06/07 rally all corrections fell in a range of about 20-35 points.
So far the rally out of the February bottom has followed this script. The February corrective move dropped 25 points in 4 days and the recent pullback on the Goldman news dropped 30 points in…
by Chart School - April 16th, 2010 6:55 pm
By Nico Isaac at Elliott Wave International
For Elliott Wave International’s chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, the single most important thing for a trader to have is STYLE-- and no, we’re not talking business casual versus sporty chic. Trading "style," as in any of the following: top/bottom picker, strictly technical, cyclical, or pattern watcher.
Jeffrey himself is a "trend" trader, meaning: he uses the Wave Principle as his primary tool, with a few secondary means of select technical studies. Such as: Bar Patterns. And Jeffrey counts one bar pattern in particular as his favorite: the 3-in-1.
Here’s the gist: The 3-in-1 bar pattern occurs when the price range of the fourth bar (named, the "set-up" bar) engulfs the highs and lows of the last three bars. When prices penetrate above the high — or — below the low of the set-up bar, it often signals the resumption of the larger trend. Where this breach occurs is called the "trigger bar." On this, the following diagram offers a clear illustration:
Now, how about a real world example of the 3-1 formation in the recent history of a major commodity market? Well, that’s where the picture below comes in. It’s a close-up of Cotton from the February 5, 2010 Daily Futures Junctures.
As you can see, a classic 3-in-1 bar pattern emerged in Cotton at the very start of the New Year. Within a few day the trigger bar closed below the low of the set-up bar, signaling the market’s return to the downside. Immediately after, cotton prices plunged in a powerful selloff to four-month lows.
February arrived, and with it the end of cotton’s decline. In the same chart you can see how Jeffrey used the Wave Principle to calculate a potential downside target for the market at 66.33. This area marked the point where Wave (5) equaled wave (1), a reliable for impulse patterns. Since then a winning streak in cotton has carried prices to new contract highs.
This example shows the power of a fully-equipped technical analysis "toolbox." By using the Wave Principle with Bar Patterns, one has a solid, objective chance of anticipating the trend in volatile markets.
And in a 15-page report titled "How To Use Bar Patterns To Spot Trade Set-ups," Jeffrey Kennedy identifies the top SIX Bar…
by ilene - April 12th, 2010 3:57 pm
H/tip to Tom Burger, who neatly summed it up: government transfer payments are significantly distorting broad measures of economic activity. – Ilene
Calling the beginning or end of a recession takes time. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) waits until the data is revised, and if the recovery is sluggish, this process can take from 18 months to two years or longer.
In addition, if the economy slides into recession again, the committee will only consider it a new recession if most major indicators were close to or above their previous highs. Otherwise it will just be considered a continuation of the previous recession.
A good example of the NBER calling two separate recessions was in the early ’80s, from the NBER memo:
"The period following July 1980 will appear in the NBER chronology as an expansion. An important factor influencing that decision is that most major indicators, including real GNP, are already close to or above their previous highs."
emphasis added
It will take some time for most major indicators to be above their previous high after the "great recession" because of the severe contraction as the graphs below show.
Continue to full article and charts here.>>
May 24th, 2012 4:19 pm
Courtesy of Dangerous Mind's Richard Metzger
Bill Moyers continues to make astonishing television with his truly great new PBS series, Moyers and Company. It’s unmissable, the most intelligent hour of programming on American TV today, bar none.
In the latest episode, Rage Against The Machine’s Tom Morello—a man I have a lot of admiration for—joined Bill Moyers for a particularly moving and inspiring conversation. From the show’s website
Songs of social protest—music and the quest for justice—have long been intertwined, and the troubadours of troubling times—Guthrie, Seeger, Baez, Dylan, and Springsteen among them—have become famous for their dedication to both. Now we can add a name to the ranks of those who l...
May 24th, 2012 3:55 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
And it was shaping up to be such a good year. According to the latest just released HSBC hedge fund performance update, increasingly more funds are starting to lose it, certainly for the month, but increasingly more for the year. How many LPs will be eager to keep on paying 2% management fees (forget performance) to funds who at best are long AAPL (at least 226 of them), and at worst have underperformed the S&P, for the second year in a row, by anywhere from 5 to 15%?
Select HF performance:
...
May 24th, 2012 3:44 pm
Today’s tickers: TIF, P & NYT
TIF - Tiffany & Co., Inc. – A surprise earnings miss and a reduced full-year profit and sales forecast from luxury jewelry retailer, Tiffany & Co., took some of the luster out of its shares today, with the stock trading down 8.5% at $56.55 as of 11:50 a.m. in New York. Options activity on Tiffany this morning suggests mixed sentiment on the st...
more from Caitlin
May 24th, 2012 2:05 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
RealNetworks, Inc. (NASDAQ: RNWK) today announced that it has reached an agreement with the Washington State Attorney General over discontinued e-commerce practices. In accordance with the settlement agreement, RealNetworks has committed to:
Discontinuing the use of pre-checked boxes for purchases of RealNetworks subscription products; Spelling out more clearly the material terms of RealNetworks product offerings; Offering online cancellation of subscription offerings; Enhancing RealNetworks customer support guidelines regarding cancellation. Statement from Thomas Nielsen, President & CEO of RealNetworks:
"About two years ago, the Washington State Attorney General's Office contacted us regarding concerns they had with some of our e-commerce practices.
"While we disagree wit...
May 24th, 2012 1:59 pm
Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
U.S. Dollar is now facing a falling 10-year resistance line and Dollar bullish sentiment is almost reaching 80%.
Despite these high bullish readings, if the Dollar succeeds in a breakout, odds move up considerably that "Deflation/Falling prices" picks up speed.
...May 24th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Click here for the full report.
May 24th, 2012 8:50 am
Submitted by Mark HannaCourtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
First we'll go to the technicals. Back in mid April I had opined a 'bear flag' formation was being created. [Apr 17, 2012: Potential Bear Flag Forming] But the market being the difficult beast it is, head faked everyone and rather than a break down from said flag it first went UP and nearly touched yearly highs. This caused everyone to think the bear flag had failed…. only to lead to a horrid May in the market. Generally a bear flag will resolve relatively quickly but the longer...
May 24th, 2012 2:14 am
Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Courtesy of Scott Martindale, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics
Despite the fact that U.S. equities are well-positioned and well-supported to go up, once again it is the headlines out of Europe—especially Greece—that are scaring off investors. Some are saying that it is now likely (and even desirable) that Greece will default on all its sovereign debt, withdraw from the euro, and severely devalue its domestic currency (Drachma?). This will allow them to operate a balanced budget while pumping cash into growth initiatives, rather than suffer the ravages of Germany-mandated austerity.
Some say, so what? Greece makes up only about 2% of the Eurozone’s overall economy. Nevertheless, you might say that t...
May 23rd, 2012 5:29 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Markets died and then rallied to flat again as European leaders “prepared contingencies” for a possible GrexitMarkets died hard and fast earlier today as major indexes registered as much as 1.5% of losses after news that Euro zone officials were unofficially “preparing contingencies” for a Greek exit from the Euro. Unofficial statements were not enough to keep markets down however, as major indexes rallied back to flat levels by the end of the day.
So the world continues to wait on Europe, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEACA:SPY) gained .05%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:...
May 21st, 2012 8:54 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Optrader
...May 20th, 2012 5:04 pm
NEW: Ilene is available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here is this week's test version of the latest newsletter. We apologize for some formatting issues that need to be worked out. Please tell us what you think.
Click on Stock World Weekly here, and sign in/sign up.
...April 28th, 2012 8:49 pm
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm." This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers! Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines. Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...
February 26th, 2012 10:39 am
My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin. FAS Money We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update. Last update P&L - $5499.00 IWM Money Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update. Last update P&L - $1998.00 $5KP Portfolio This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K. AAPL $50K P...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. However, neither Philstockworld, LLC (PSW) nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice. |
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