Posts Tagged ‘CHINA’

Fearful Friday – Ebola in NYC Spooks the Markets

SPY  5  MINUTEHalloween is just around the corner

Already the monsters are coming out with two of NY's three papers already maxing out their headline fonts to scream EBOLA!!! to people on their way to work. As I noted to our Member in this morning's Alert (tweeted out too!) that made for easy shorts on the Futures:

Based on Ebola and the upcoming stress tests, I'd have to guess a sell-off is coming today.  Shorting /ES at 1,940 (tight stops, of course) and the Dow (/YM) at 16,600 are a lot safer than shorting /TF at 1,100 but all good lines to use and watch.  /NQ already failed 4,000.  

SPX WEEKLYIt's 7:54 and already the Egg McMuffins are paid for on nice drops off those levels and we'll take quick profits and run and hopefully get a chance to re-enter as I don't see this day going well.  

We're back to short in our Short-Term Porfolio but less aggressively so than last weekend as we can't ignore the underlying 3.5% gains our indexes have put up this week. 

As usual, the Dollar is being knocked down to support the Futures but it's not helping oil much ($81.24) so far.  Gold, however, bounced back to $1,233 and silver (/SI) went over our long line at $17.25 (very tight stops below).  Gasoline (/RB) was rejected at $2.20 – another sign that the underlying economy is much weaker than these indexes would have you believe.

In fact, GS reports today that China has shut 20% of it's Iron Ore production in the face of an inventory glus and prices dropping 40% this year.  The market is in the midst of a transition without precedent in recent commodity history as supply jumps and higher-cost mines shut, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. HSBC Holdings Plc, which cut its price forecasts this week, sees a 30 percent slump in Chinese output next year.  

“The market currently looks like a game of chicken where no player has blinked,” HSBC said. “The major producers are likely to


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Weakening Wednesday – Market Picture Begins to Look Grim

This is not pretty.

As you can see on our Big Chart, we've failed the 50 dma on the S&P, Nasdaq, NYSE and Russell and the Russell failed its 200 dma long ago.  We're still waiting for the Dow to cross below 16,940 and confirm the carnage but we made those bets long ago with our DXD Oct $24 calls, which are now 0.70 (up 55%) from our 0.45 entry back on 9/18.

In fact, we already took 1/2 of those calls off the table at 0.85 last week so, essentially, the remainder is a free put option on the Dow for the next three weeks – with DXD at $24.45, so we gain every penny from here on up as the Dow falls.  

That's what hedges are supposed to do, of course.  We discussed that in yesterday's Live Trading Webinar, where we also demonstrated a live Futures trade on the Russell (/TF Futures) that made $500 on the 2:30 bounce.  That bounce was very easy to predict because THE MARKET IS MANIPULATED and all we had to do was wait for the same fake spike that we get at the end of every quarter, courtesy of the Fed and their fellow Banksters:

SPY  5  MINUTEWhat's scary about yesterday's flood of money ($230Bn in two days) wasn't just the size of the pump job, but the ineffectiveness of it.  The volume was still anemic and declining shares outpaced advancing shares by almost 2:1 in yesterday's "mixed" trading.  

In reality, it wasn't mixed at all as big traders took advantage of every penny that moved into the market as they told their brokers to sell, SELL!!!

Still, it's not the end of the World just yet – only close to it, and we can still turn this puppy around by holding the line on the Dow as well as Russell 1,100 and Nasdaq 4,500.  This market has been amazingly resiliant in 2014 so we're not going to be complacently bearish the same way we (thank goodness) did not let ourselves get complacently bullish this summer.  


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Monday’s Mixed Signals – Time to Dress the Windows?

SPY DAILYWheeee, what a ride!  

We're up, we're down and over and out – but That's Life in the markets, right?  Life is being good to our Short-Term Portfolio, now up 59.2% for the year as we caught the bearish move very nicely.  Because our STP was up, we have, so far, been able to ride out our long-term positions but we're certainly concerned about a major breakdown possibly in the works.  

As noted by Dave Fry in his SPY chart, that 50 dma is a big point of contention now and of course we're going to get a bounce off a line like that.  In fact, the new lows we hit at the end of the week led us to recalculate our bounce lines for this week and now we are looking for:

  • Dow - 17,000 (weak) and 17,100 (strong) 
  • S&P  1,975 (weak) and 1,985 (strong)
  • Nasdaq 4,475 (weak) and 4,500 (strong)
  • NYSE  10,760 (weak) and 10,820 (strong)
  • Russell 1,125 (weak) and 1,140 (strong)

SPY 5 MINUTEWe weren't too convinced by Friday's low-volume rally and we aren't going to be convinced by anything that happens on the last two days of the month (window dressing) but clearly any failure of those weak bounce lines is going to have us racing back to some bearish bets into the start of October (and earnings season).  

Speaking of earnings - the CEO of Macy's, Terry Lundren is not too enthusiastic about Q4.  After…
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Monday Market Movement – Waiting on the Fed

9-12-2014 4-25-40 PM bullsMore bad news today.  

China's Industrial Output is at its lowest level since the 2008 crash and Hong Kong stocks dropped 1%, the 7th consecutive down day over there and the Royal Economists at the Bank of Scotland slashed their forecast for China as worries rise that the world's second-largest economy is headed for another slowdown.  Too bad for them, they are just catching up to what we told you a month ago, on 8/18, when I said in the morning post:

Chinese Banks' Loan-Loss Reserves have fallen to the the lowest levels in 3 years — We shorted India last week (EPI) and now FXI has got my mouth watering as a potentially good short.  I'd feel better about taking up a short on FXI at $45, not $42 but the Jan $42/38 bear put spread is just $1.80 on the $4 spread and that makes it very interesting as it pays 122% on a less than 10% decline in the Chinese markets – a nice way to hedge your bullish China bets!  

As we expected, there was a little more gas in the tank but now we're right back on track as the magical China story begins to show its age.  The benchmark index for the Asian region, the MSCI All Countries Asia Ex-Japan in U.S. dollar terms, is down 2.2% since reaching the year's high earlier this month.  Saturday's weak economic data—including news that August electricity output fell 2.2%—suggest that earlier government stimulus measures lack staying power.

FXE WEEKLY"The economy is losing steam very quickly in August," said Macquarie Group economist Larry Hu. "Previously when they stimulated the economy, private companies followed, leading to a restocking cycle. But this time, the private sector is so cautious."  "The IP number is a surprise because Premier Li talked in Tianjin about a quite stable situation," said Mizuho economist Shen Jianguang. "I think, very soon, they're reaching a moment of truth. If they don't ease, the economic deceleration will come much faster."…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – S&P 2,000 Edition

SPX WEEKLY2,000.02 – We did it!!!

Unfortunately, we can't afford to pop the champagne because the 0.03 we spend on it would put us back under – so we'll watch and we'll wait another day before celebrating a milestone we've been expecting since last week (see "Will Jackson Hole Give Us S&P 2,000?") and we went with that TNA trade we discussed in yesterday's post to cover the expected bull run

We also picked up long plays on BAC and DBA in our Live Member Chat Room and BAC has already rocketed on the settlement news but DBA is only just making the turn and still makes an excellent play that we'll be adding to our Buy List (Members Only) along with 10 more picks we'll be making this week. 

SPY 5 MINUTEAs you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, we have set a new record for this decade for low volume on a full market day.  Last Christmas Eve was 43M on a half day, for example, but the Christmas Eve before that was 53M and those were the lowest two days I could find before I got bored looking (very scientific).  

Anyway, the point is that 38.9M is VERY LOW VOLUME – so low that paying attention to a dot on a chart that is drawn in such a light touch is just silly.  That makes yesterday's jaunt over 2,000 completely meaningless and more so with the additional evidence of the intraday action which, as Dave notes, could not have been more manipulated.

This is why we have been pressing our bear bets.  Even though we have peace in Gaza and peace in Ukraine (for today) and even though we've forgotten about Europe's negative GDP and China's plunging property prices and Ebola – we still couldn't find more than 38.9M buyers for SPY – that's just sad!  

FXI WEEKLYSpeaking of China, last Monday, for FREE, right in the morning post, we picked the following on FXI:

We shorted India last week (EPI) and now FXI has got my mouth


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Monday Market Mayhem – Bombs Fly, Markets Fly – Why Not?

America F*ck Yeah!  

From Ferguson to Fallujah, America has spent the weekend kicking ass and taking names with the National Guard rushing in to put down the 99% in Missouri while in Mosul, we're bombing the Middle East's 99% off the dams and picking off the stragglers with high-tech drones – F*ck Yeah!  

That, combined with what we can politely call a non-escalation of tensions in the Ukraine has sent the price of oil tumbling by 0.75 this morning, good for $750 per contract from our Friday short (and now we're long at $94 on /CLV4 for October) - F*ck Yeah!  Index futures were up slightly in Asia but gathered steam in Europe and markets there are coming out of lunch up over 1% – even as the cease-fire in Gaza is about to end.  

Meanwhile, over in Hong Kong, we got a powerful lesson in numbers as the 1.3Bn population of China is able to overwhelm that Island's 7M people (0.5% of China's population) at will and that will was exercised this weekend as China staged "Pro-Beijing" rallies that protested the "Occupy Central" rallies the bottom 99% of Hong Kong had been staging.   Can anti-democracy rallies be far behind?  

The anti-Occupy Central campaign's focus on the impact of civil disobedience has appealed to the pragmatism of many Hong Kong people. While many support democracy, they also just want to live their lives and go to work unimpeded.  "We can't be optimistic at all—the pro-Beijing camp will control the entire list of candidates," said Joseph Cheng, a political-science professor and convener of the Alliance for True Democracy, a coalition of democratic parties supporting Occupy Central.

In short, while China did promise to give Hong Kong the right to vote – they never said they wouldn't stuff the ballot boxes or put up candidates that were nothing more than two different flavors of the same puppets.  "If we are buying fruit, don't give us three rotten oranges to choose from," one of the activists said.  Oh wait, that might have been our own election coverage – it's so hard to keep these totalitarian regimes straight

Still it's VICTORY…
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Tricky Tuesday – Fed Funds Fake EOQ

6-30-2014 6-10-45 PM Fixed RateThank you Fed may we have another?

And, by another, I mean another $340Bn that the Fed paid out to their Bankster buddies in "Reverse Repo" purchases at the end of the month.  That's right, the Fed essentially bought THE ENTIRE STOCK MARKET (in terms of transaction value) from the banks over the last few days of June and THAT injection of cash is how they kept the rally going into the end of the quarter.  

As you can see from the NY Fed's own chart (via Dave Fry and Zero Hedge), this kind of charity buying isn't unusual for the Fed – more like Standard Operating Procedure to inflate equity prices into the end of each quarter.  Does it work?  Sure, look at the results:

As you can see - as the market gets more and more expensive, it takes more and more money to push it higher.  Also note the Fed tweaked (hopefully not twerked – there's an image of Yellen I don't want burned in my mind!) their timing to move it close and closer to the very last day, to maximize their bang for the buck.  

SPX WEEKLYUNFORTUNATELY, as you can see from the S&P chart above, these effects are short-term and demand a correction in the not too distant future. 

What's very interesting is that our stimulus theory is still holding up.  We developed this back in 2012, through observation of the effect of Central Banksters market meddling on Global Equities and it turns out that $10Bn per quarter buys 1 S&P point.  Look how perfectly that aligns on the chart!  

Bill Dudley, New York Fed president, warned last month that if use of the repo facility were to grow too quickly it might “result in a large amount of disintermediation out of banks through money market funds and other financial intermediaries into the facility. This could encourage further enlargement of the shadow banking system.”

Hey, a little enlargement of the Shadow Banking system never hurt anyone, did it China?  China, in fact, also pitched in with more stimulus of their own by changing the…
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Friday Fakery – How Many Countries are Faking Economic Data?

I forgot to talk about something important yesterday.

Turkey was caught FAKING their trade data, with Prime Minister Erdogan, working with Economic Minister Caglayan LAST YEAR to manipulate their $800Bn economy by sending gold overseas to boost their export numbers.  How a team that included Turkey’s economy minister sought to manage the current account deficit, as the gap is called, by juicing exports to Iran is laid out in a 300-page document prepared by Turkish investigators in 2013. Caglayan and his collaborators also came away with tens of millions of dollars in bribes, according to the document, which has been cited in parliament by opposition lawmakers

The covert efforts that Caglayan and his associates undertook eventually swelled to a multi-billion dollar enterprise that reached from Ghana to China, according to the investigation. Tons of gold flowed from Turkey to Iran, much of it via Dubai. That freed up Iranian money trapped in Turkish banks, in turn boosting Turkish exports.

When the gold trade was foiled by tightening American sanctions starting in July 2013, Sarraf and his collaborators kept exporting. They sent thousands of tons of overpriced — and sometimes fictitious — food onto ships steaming between Dubai and Iran, according to the document.

That's how things are being done in the World's 18th-largest economy and, notice CHINA (3rd) is one of the countries participating in this scam, as is Iran (21st) and Dubai in the UAE (30th).  We already know China is involved in all sorts of economic manipulation, including building entire empty cities just to boost their GDP numbers.  China, in fact, is in the midst of another set of scandals, with tens of Billions (GS estimates $160Bn) in bank loans backed by silver and copper collarteral that does not, in fact, exist (maybe they "got it" from Turkey?).  

So what is the REAL Global GDP?  Clearly they aren't manipulating the numbers LOWER, so
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Money, Power and Wall Street

Have you seen this?  

 

Frontline did this very good documentary and I'd file it under "those who forget the past are CONDEMNED to repeat it" – let's all TRY not to repeat the mistakes of 2008…   "Wall Street got bailed out and Main Street didn't" is the quote that neatly sums up the present situation.  Wall Street and the top 10% of this country – of this World – are partying like it's 1999 while the bottom 90% continue to languish in the worst Recession since the Great Depression.  

Click to View

Despite a myriad of worrying data, the Corporate Media is in full-blown promotional mode – pushing stocks as if it were modern snake oil – the panacea that will cure all your ills.  We often forget that essentially ALL of our news sources are publicly traded companies and have a vested interest in the stock market going higher.  Hell, we have an interest in that too, as our longer-term virtual porfolios are entirely bullish - but that shouldn't preclude us from making a realistic assessment of the CURRENT situation, should it?  

Caterpillar, 3M, United Technologies and ABB are among the manufacturers that have reported weak performances in China in the first quarter as economic growth has slowed nearly to a three-year low.  Caterpillar’s sales in China fell between $250 million and $300 million in the first quarter, pushing the company, the world’s largest maker of earth-moving equipment, to export to other countries a large share of the equipment it made in China.  

Concerns about China overshadowed better-than-expected earnings at the company, which is based in Peoria, Illinois, and led investors to push the stock down 5 percent Wednesday, which was great for us as CAT was on our Long Put List.

ABB, a maker of power equipment, reported profits in the past week that were below analysts’ expectations, caused by weak Chinese demand. “It was a very slow start to the year for China. China in January was extremely weak,” ABB’s chief financial officer, Michel Demaré, said Wednesday.

Our business in China is off to a slow start,” said Gregory J. Hayes, the chief financial
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Margin Call Monday – Yuan Falls Limit Down to the Dollar

It's amazing what the MSM ignores these days

The PBOC raised the Yuan exchange by 0.0005 and that microscopic move set off a panic that dropped the Yuan it's daily 0.5% limit against the Dollar – marking a huge and violent reversal to the recent trend and signaling that China's usual tight control of their economy may be starting to unravel.  Chinese banks scrambled to buy Dollars to meet a Central Bank rule that bars them from having Dollar short positions overnight but it's doubtful that all were able to comply in that violent action.  

The Shanghai Composite fell 1.5% this morning (Hong Kong was closed) but it does not show up in the charts on the WSJ's main page nor is it mentioned on CNBC – perhaps because it conflicts with the weak-Dollar narrative they are using to drive the speculative commodity frenzy.  Ignoring problems in China was a big theme of the summer of 2008 – as we rallied into the second biggest stock market collapse in history from Dow 11,000 in mid-July to 11,782 on Aug 11th and we were still testing 11,600 through Sept 1st but then things started going wrong as we broke below 11,000, then 10,000, then 9,000, then 8,000 – finally stopping at 7,500 (down 33%) on Nov 20th.

Special Report:  How to Make Millions in Metal and Oil:

As I keep telling Members, we don't have to be worried about missing a sell-off, it will be long and relentless when and if it comes as will the rise we get as inflation begins to kick in.  Gold is now over $1,500 for a week and, before you waste money on gold – let's look at an alternative:  GLD is the ETF that tracks gold and, if you think Gold is going to $1,600 – rather than plunk $1,500 down on an ounce of gold to make 6.6% on a move up, you can buy the GLD $140/160 bull call spread for $790 (1 contract spread at $7.90).  As GLD is currently at $146.74, that spread is currently $674 in the money and carried a $116 premium BUT – for about 1/2 the cost of an ounce of gold, if GLD gets to $160 (approximately $1,600 an ounce) then that spread is worth…
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Zero Hedge

China Bans Websites From Original Reporting

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It was about six months ago when global stock markets were crashing, that China tightened its control on local media, and ordered the local press and news outlets to stick to "positive reporting" or else "risk the stability of the country."  As we reported back in February "China is now openly declaring war on anyone who dares to even suggest tha...



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Phil's Favorites

Politics & Your Money

 

Politics & Your Money

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Will you be able to retire, and what impact will the elections have on your financial future? Answering these questions can be a scary endeavor. And unless you have been living in a cave, you may have noticed we are in the middle of a heated U.S. presidential election campaign between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Regardless of which side of the political fence you stand on, the prospects of your retirement are much more likely to be impacted by your personal actions than by the actions of Washington politicians.

Even if you despise politics and were living in a cave (with WiFi access), there’s a high probability you would be overloaded with detailed and dogmatic online editorials from overcon...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Buying the Deepest Stock Dips in 2016 Returned Three Times S&P 500 (Bloomberg)

It’s been a great year for catching falling knives.

Big Week Ahead Highlighted By Fed Meeting, Key Earnings, GDP Estimate (Forbes)

The recipe for this coming week? A stew of earnings, peppered with data and a Fed meeting. Also ahead: A first look at estimated Q2 gross domestic product.

...



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Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: The Global Rally Moderates

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The global rally in equities Moderated last week. The average gain of the eight indexes on our world watch list was a respectable 0.41%, down from the previous week's steroidal 3.87% average. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was the top performer with a 1.41% advance. At the other end, the chronic laggard Shanghai Composite fell 1.36%.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the compara...



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ValueWalk

Relypsa Inc (RLYP) Soars On Galenica Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) — to be acquired by Galenica AG (VTX:GALN) for $32 per share in cash is soaring this morning up about 58 percent at the time of this writing in early morning. On the other hand shares of Galenica are down on the announcement by about 8 percent. What are the details of the deal? Here is what the sell side analysts are saying about the pharma news.

Relypsa Inc (NDAQ:RLYP) bid – analysts react

Cantor Fitzgerald

Relypsa will be acquired by Galenica for $32 per share, a 59% premium over the last closing price. We have thought that Relypsa would likely be acquired at some point, given the opportunity to grow Veltassa to be a significant commercial brand, ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Doc Copper going to peak again at 200 Day moving ave?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Doc Copper is often viewed as a leading indicator, for global growth or lack of.

The 200 day moving average is often viewed as the line in the sand to determine if an asset is in an up or down trend.

Is Doc Copper climbing above its 200 day moving average a good or bad sign?

Below looks at Doc Copper over the past decade with the 200 MA applied.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Copper peaked in 2011 and since, has continued to create a series of ...



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Digital Currencies

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

 

Demystifying the blockchain: a basic user guide

By Philippa Ryan, University of Technology Sydney

Companies around the world are exploring blockchain, the technology underpinning digital currency bitcoin. In this Blockchain unleashed series, we investigate the many possible use cases for the blockchain, from the novel to the transformative.

Most people agree we do not need to know how a television works to enjoy using one. This is true of many existing and emerging technologies. Most of us happily drive cars, use mobile phones and send emails without knowing how they work. With this in mind, here is a tech-free user guide to the blockchain - the technology infrastructure behind bitcoin...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 18th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

No wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can!

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

We are getting much more energy efficient – no wonder Saudis are selling as much as they can! Who wants to be the one with trillions of dollars of oil in the ground unwanted:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/07/the-amount-of-energy-needed-to-run-the-worlds-economy-is-decreasing-on-average/#p3

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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