Posts Tagged ‘Corey Rosenbloom’

Chart Junkie: Gold from Several Perspectives and Unemployment

Chart Junkie: Gold from Several Perspectives and Unemployment

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet  

Chart Junkie

 

Gold long term

“The Professor” Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade offers us a longer term look at Gold. Although it’s breaking out on the shorter-term charts, the chart above clearly indicates there exists resistance above which must be cleared for the next bull rally to run. (Source: Afraid to Trade)

gold in currencies 9-4-09_small

Gold Priced in Multiple Currencies

Precision Capital Management offers a very interesting look at Gold priced in multiple currencies. They state: “Gold is one of the leading indicators we follow at our website.  Everyone seems to have noticed the spike up this week in gold, but how do we determine if the move is real, or merely a fakeout?  To confirm that gold is advancing on its own merits as part of a longer term move, which is not the result solely of US Dollar weakness, we want to see confirmation of an up move in gold priced in other currencies.  Above shows gold priced in the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and the Euro (EUR).  When gold began its last advance in November 2008, the move was confirmed by higher lows in the commodity currencies of the CAD and AUD, as well as the EUR (even though there were lower lows in the JPY and USD gold).  Eventually, there were higher lows in the JPY and USD gold at the beginning of December 2008.  Accordingly, for the gold bull case, early confirmation would be to see current lows in AUD, CAD and EUR gold respected on the first pullback (especially in the former two as they are commodity currencies), preferably accompanied with a break through overhead resistance.” (Source: Precision Capital Management

Gold with Fibonacci Indicators

Gold with Fibonacci Indicators

Our partners over at RatioTrading bring us yet our third and final perspective on Gold: “As demonstrated in this chart, Gold has historically respected key Fibonacci Ratio levels and with Gold retesting all time highs, where could it be headed?  Well as we look historically over the past year or so we see that in many instances when the GLD broke out and made a new low, it went right to either a 1.272 Fibonacci extension ($73)…
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Key Reversal Bar Seen on NASDAQ QQQQ

Key Reversal Bar Seen on NASDAQ QQQQ

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I wanted to highlight an interesting potential “Key Reversal” bar in the NASDAQ ETF QQQQ.  Let’s take a look:

QQQQ chart, afraid to trade

Take a look at the bar I highlighted on August 28.  Price gapped upwards off the opening (due in part to the Consumer Confidence expectation) and formed a fresh 2009 high for the year… before reversing off the open and selling off almost the whole day.

Generally, a more ‘perfect’ key reversal bar would close lower than the prior bar, but what draws my attention to this bar is the logic behind it.

Imagine, you’re a bull and you see a long price advance and you’ve been sitting on the sideline, or have money you want to invest in the market that you’ve been holding.  All of the sudden, a gap occurs and you can’t wait any longer so you rush in and put your money to work, excited and fearful that you’re missing the rising boat.

However, price begins to sell off just as you are most confident and you now become stressed and confused.  Perhaps you hang on to your long position in hopes of a recovery (because now you are ‘underwater’) and if price continues to fall – like it is doing today (September 1st), then you ‘cry uncle’ and sell your shares at a loss.

Key reversal bars that gap up and then sell off all day are generally rare, but can be powerful short-term or even intermediate term trading signals, because it captures the euphoria of the bulls and then leads to downward movement as their hopes are dashed as they sell at lower and lower prices.

Beyond the key reversal bar drawn above, we see a critical negative momentum divergence as price tapped above the upper daily Bollinger Band – that’s enough reason to take a short-sale scalp/swing trade with a tight stop.

Study this pattern a little more and let’s see if we continue to get downside momentum from a possible ‘buying climax’ high.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 


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August Long Term Elliott Wave Update on SP500

August Long Term Elliott Wave Update on SP500

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

It’s time for the August Elliott Wave Count update on the S&P 500.  I will show the two most plausible Elliott Wave Counts which remain unchanged from May’s Elliott Wave Update (which successfully targeted 1,000 as a minimum upside target in the S&P 500).  Please review that post for deeper context as you read the August update.

First, let’s take a look at the monthly structure:

chart
The 2000 high was a major peak (most likely a large scale Wave III) and virtually all Elliotticians agree we are in a long-term (10 year) expanded flat (ABC) which is shown on the graph above.

Whether or not we have completed the “C” wave is up for interpretation as will be shown below, but this is the generally accepted “Larger Elliott Picture” in a simplified version for you.

Now, let’s revisit the “Most Bullish Scenario” as described in May’s post which WOULD assume that Cycle Wave C (circled) is complete and that we are in a new bull market:

Chart S&P 500 index

As a disclaimer, I am not yet in agreement with this count, and this would be known as a ‘minority’ wave count that few in the Elliott Community have as their primary count.  However, I like to consider charts from all angles and remove bias when possible, so I am presenting this as a possibility.

Without getting too technical, this count would assume that the required 5 “Primary” Waves of the Cycle C have all completed, and that we are now on the cusp of a Brand New Bull Market.

I noted that I am skeptical of this count because the 5th wave does not subdivide properly into 5 waves, and is shorter than the 1st wave which is unusual.  That being said, Wave 5 did make a lower low than the 3rd wave, so this is most definitely a plausible count.

It would assume that Waves 1 and 2 of a fractal new Primary Wave 1 Up have formed and that we would be in a powerful third wave up here.

We will know this count is wrong if we make a new low beneath 666 in the near future, and will know that this count is correct if we have a powerful rally up from current levels…
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Dow Daily Structure July 15th

Dow Daily Structure July 15th

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I’ve tended to focus a lot of my analysis on the S&P 500, but let’s take a step back to look at the Dow Jones Index for possible clues and an interesting pattern that *could* be forming on the daily chart.

Dow Daily Structure, chart

As much as I hesititate to believe it, there is a possibility that the Dow is forming an expanding triangle or broadening formation, with an upside target near 9,000 (which would be a retest of the January highs).

We still have a negative volume divergence and a negative triple-swing momentum divergence which the bulls are going to have to overcome, and I think it will be difficult to do, particularly given the “Summer Seasonality” (stocks tend to experience seasonal weakness in the summer months, or at least a flat, trading range as volatility/volume is expected to decrease).

I’m mainly posting this as a “Hmm.  This is interesting” and basing it off the swing highs and lows and the trendlines that originate from the May highs and lows which seems a natural fit.

Without effort, price shattered overhead EMA confluence resistance thanks to Intel’s (INTC) earnings surprise and the market’s reaction to it.

Keep this as a possibility as we get more information.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com 

 


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Zero Hedge

CoLD WaR NuT JoB...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

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ValueWalk

After Impressive 85% Return In 2016, Hedge Fund Looks To Canadian Gold Producer, Small Banks

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Livermore Partners had a great year, up 85% in 2016! See their full 2016 letter to investors below. But first check out our exclusive interview with PM David Neuhauser on some of the hedge fund’s favorite small caps.

Also see

2016 Hedge Fund Letters Livermore Partners 3Q16 Partners Letter

Letter below

January 16th, 2017

To: Partners:

I’m happy to be writing our Quarterly letter and closing out Livermore’s best year on record. 2016 was without a doubt, volatile. Especially in terms of events causing sharp and sudden correct...



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Phil's Favorites

Fake News Police Arrive in Germany

Courtesy of Mish.

On behalf of Merkel-sponsored Russophobia, including threats of fines, Facebook rolls out fake-news filtering service to Germany.

Germany is to become the first country outside the US to benefit from Facebook’s crackdown on fake news as the social media group tries to control the proliferation of media hoaxes ahead of elections in the country this year.

The world’s largest social network is bringing its test of fake news filtering tools to Germany in the coming weeks after the spread of false stories such as one claiming Germany’s oldest church was set on fire by a mob of 1,000 pe...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil prices under pressure on doubts over output cuts (Reuters)

Oil prices were under pressure on Monday due to doubts that large oil producers will reduce production as promised and on expectations that U.S. production would increase again this year.

Shenzhen Stocks Sink Most in 10 Months in Sudden Afternoon Drop (Bloomberg)

Stocks in China’s second-largest equity market plunged the most in 10 months, underscoring the increasing fragility of the nation’s financial assets.

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Regional banks; Breakout test in play, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Over the past 60-days, financial stocks have done well. Over the past 60-days, regional banks have been stellar performers, out producing larger banks and the broad market, by a large percentage. From a risk on stock perspective, seeing large and regional banks do well, has historically been a positive sign.

Below looks at regional bank ETF (KRE)_

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

K...



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Members' Corner

How To Poop On A Date?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Back for a brief respite, it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday in the Loo". Our last episode The Best Thing To Happen To Pooping, Since Your Butt, laid down a historical perspective.  

This week in How To Poop on a Date? we are graced with a delicate shituation: when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".  Oh what to do...


...

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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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