Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!
Phil/ I hope the next 5 year bear market will be as much fun and as profitable as this 5 year bull market. For those who survived 2008/2009, and who imbibed the wisdom of PSW, what a time it has been. Good to have you by my side. I think you are selling yourself short – you need to triple your prices :)
You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.
Thanks for the free disaster hedge ideas. I implemented variations of two of them on SDS bull call spreads and EEM bear put spreads (haven't done the TZA yet) and they really hedged my short term longs nicely today. Makes it seem a lot less like gambling.
You are the man (of the people)!
As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges.
Just closed out a July TZA 40/45 call spread today for a 271% gain in less than a month. I would have normally let that run but yesterday Phil commented to another member something to the effect that "you put down a $1 for a $5 upside, now that you are up 250% you have $2.5 in and you are hoping for a double."
Just closed out a USO July $38 put that Phil suggested yesterday for a 49% one day gain.
Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!
Phil fantastic call on the markets… I owe you BIG…thanks and have a great weekend!
The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)
What a quarter! (AAPL, etc.) "People react; PSW'ers anticipate." Thanks everyone for a vibrant board.
Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads.
That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc.
Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities.
Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.
Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!
I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.
I have definitely learned to take smaller wins early and be happy with that. Lately, I've aimed for $250 profit per day. Doing that daily/weekly x 48 weeks (assuming I take some time off) works out to 60k per year. That's a lot of money!! $250 moves happen all the time if you just wait for them.
Have been a member for about 6 months or there abouts. Signed up for a quarter at first and then for a year. To me, and it's only my opinion, it's an investment and I have made the membership fees back many times over on the strategy advice. Since joining and implementing the strategy of buy/writes and hedges I have cut my portfolio losses for the year and have a really good chance of going positive this year. If I would have continued down the road I was on, I would still have been fumbling around without a strategy and completely inept in what I was doing. I feel now the strategy is working and I am far more comfortable with the risks I am taking. I still have a lot to learn but I feel the fees have been one of the best investments I have made. The returns have been fantastic. Still have problems with the politics but hey nobody is perfect
On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.
Sold the BG puts I got yesterday at $1.30 for $2 just now. Might be a little early, but I'm happy with that gain. Thanks Phil.
Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50.
I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles.
I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.
Tesla et. al. – I've spent many months getting hammered shorting overvalued Momos, until, finally, I internalized Phil's message. Play small; give yourself plenty of room to double/move up the [lack of value] chain in terms of price. Play short; take [Musk's, eg.] latest bleep and sell the spike for a short time frame, because his tweets always come to naught. I've been coining money doing it, I just watch that premium melt away with scarcely veiled amusement. Swinging for the fences is for suckers [me, for a long time]. Those little gains really add up — $2k per week of evaporated premium and you could actually buy a Tesla by the end of the year!!
I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.
Looking over your main themes last week, the "China may fall first" and "if you missed it previously, Thurs am gives you a second chance to short" were absolutely on target. I had to rely on stop-losses because of my schedule but just those two calls could have been worth a small fortune. Keep it up and I look forward to your new portfolio.
I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.
New members – a word of advice: you should check out the track record of Phil's last few trades of the year, and what the return would be if you just rolled all the gains into the next years trade of the year. Remember – trade of the year is one he's virtually sure of, and he rarely misses on those
I love volatile days like this when you can make a bunch of money on these big swings. As long as you have Phil on your side calling the bottoms and the tops of course.
Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!
GLD I took out my callers and rolled down my longs this morning, woo hoo!
I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instict which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.
Phil Thank you very much, I appreciate your help and wisdom.
Phil: I cleaned up today. A rather stark contrast to my untutored performance April/May 2009, after I had written to you to explain how wrong-headed your bearishness was. Many thanks.
I ran into someone once who played on the Bulls with Jordan for quite a few years. He was asked what he had learned from playing with MJ for so long. He smiled and said "Give him the ball."
/NKD- Kownichiwa Cowboy!! One week of patience and scaling in and out pays off. This is a testament to Phil's fundamental analysis with the PSW technique. Thanks Phil.
I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals).
In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.
“The Professor” Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade offers us a longer term look at Gold. Although it’s breaking out on the shorter-term charts, the chart above clearly indicates there exists resistance above which must be cleared for the next bull rally to run. (Source: Afraid to Trade)
Gold Priced in Multiple Currencies
Precision Capital Management offers a very interesting look at Gold priced in multiple currencies. They state: “Gold is one of the leading indicators we follow at our website. Everyone seems to have noticed the spike up this week in gold, but how do we determine if the move is real, or merely a fakeout? To confirm that gold is advancing on its own merits as part of a longer term move, which is not the result solely of US Dollar weakness, we want to see confirmation of an up move in gold priced in other currencies. Above shows gold priced in the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and the Euro (EUR). When gold began its last advance in November 2008, the move was confirmed by higher lows in the commodity currencies of the CAD and AUD, as well as the EUR (even though there were lower lows in the JPY and USD gold). Eventually, there were higher lows in the JPY and USD gold at the beginning of December 2008. Accordingly, for the gold bull case, early confirmation would be to see current lows in AUD, CAD and EUR gold respected on the first pullback (especially in the former two as they are commodity currencies), preferably accompanied with a break through overhead resistance.” (Source: Precision Capital Management)
Gold with Fibonacci Indicators
Our partners over at RatioTrading bring us yet our third and final perspective on Gold: “As demonstrated in this chart, Gold has historically respected key Fibonacci Ratio levels and with Gold retesting all time highs, where could it be headed? Well as we look historically over the past year or so we see that in many instances when the GLD broke out and made a new low, it went right to either a 1.272 Fibonacci extension ($73)…
I wanted to highlight an interesting potential “Key Reversal” bar in the NASDAQ ETF QQQQ. Let’s take a look:
Take a look at the bar I highlighted on August 28. Price gapped upwards off the opening (due in part to the Consumer Confidence expectation) and formed a fresh 2009 high for the year… before reversing off the open and selling off almost the whole day.
Generally, a more ‘perfect’ key reversal bar would close lower than the prior bar, but what draws my attention to this bar is the logic behind it.
Imagine, you’re a bull and you see a long price advance and you’ve been sitting on the sideline, or have money you want to invest in the market that you’ve been holding. All of the sudden, a gap occurs and you can’t wait any longer so you rush in and put your money to work, excited and fearful that you’re missing the rising boat.
However, price begins to sell off just as you are most confident and you now become stressed and confused. Perhaps you hang on to your long position in hopes of a recovery (because now you are ‘underwater’) and if price continues to fall – like it is doing today (September 1st), then you ‘cry uncle’ and sell your shares at a loss.
Key reversal bars that gap up and then sell off all day are generally rare, but can be powerful short-term or even intermediate term trading signals, because it captures the euphoria of the bulls and then leads to downward movement as their hopes are dashed as they sell at lower and lower prices.
Beyond the key reversal bar drawn above, we see a critical negative momentum divergence as price tapped above the upper daily Bollinger Band – that’s enough reason to take a short-sale scalp/swing trade with a tight stop.
Study this pattern a little more and let’s see if we continue to get downside momentum from a possible ‘buying climax’ high.
First, let’s take a look at the monthly structure:
The 2000 high was a major peak (most likely a large scale Wave III) and virtually all Elliotticians agree we are in a long-term (10 year) expanded flat (ABC) which is shown on the graph above.
Whether or not we have completed the “C” wave is up for interpretation as will be shown below, but this is the generally accepted “Larger Elliott Picture” in a simplified version for you.
Now, let’s revisit the “Most Bullish Scenario” as described in May’s post which WOULD assume that Cycle Wave C (circled) is complete and that we are in a new bull market:
As a disclaimer, I am not yet in agreement with this count, and this would be known as a ‘minority’ wave count that few in the Elliott Community have as their primary count. However, I like to consider charts from all angles and remove bias when possible, so I am presenting this as a possibility.
Without getting too technical, this count would assume that the required 5 “Primary” Waves of the Cycle C have all completed, and that we are now on the cusp of a Brand New Bull Market.
I noted that I am skeptical of this count because the 5th wave does not subdivide properly into 5 waves, and is shorter than the 1st wave which is unusual. That being said, Wave 5 did make a lower low than the 3rd wave, so this is most definitely a plausible count.
It would assume that Waves 1 and 2 of a fractal new Primary Wave 1 Up have formed and that we would be in a powerful third wave up here.
We will know this count is wrong if we make a new low beneath 666 in the near future, and will know that this count is correct if we have a powerful rally up from current levels…
I’ve tended to focus a lot of my analysis on the S&P 500, but let’s take a step back to look at the Dow Jones Index for possible clues and an interesting pattern that *could* be forming on the daily chart.
As much as I hesititate to believe it, there is a possibility that the Dow is forming an expanding triangle or broadening formation, with an upside target near 9,000 (which would be a retest of the January highs).
We still have a negative volume divergence and a negative triple-swing momentum divergence which the bulls are going to have to overcome, and I think it will be difficult to do, particularly given the “Summer Seasonality” (stocks tend to experience seasonal weakness in the summer months, or at least a flat, trading range as volatility/volume is expected to decrease).
I’m mainly posting this as a “Hmm. This is interesting” and basing it off the swing highs and lows and the trendlines that originate from the May highs and lows which seems a natural fit.
Without effort, price shattered overhead EMA confluence resistance thanks to Intel’s (INTC) earnings surprise and the market’s reaction to it.
Keep this as a possibility as we get more information.
By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.
One of our favorite investors here at The Acquirer’s Multiple – Stock Screener is Bill Miller.
Miller is the founder of Miller Value Partners, and currently serves as the Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, and the Portfolio Manager for Opportunity Equity and Income Opportunity Strategy. Prior to Miller Value Partners, Bill and his partner, Ernie Kiehne, founded Legg Mason Capital Management and served as portfolio managers of the Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust from its inception in 1982. Miller took over as sole manager in December 1990 and served in this role for the next 20 years.
Bank stocks have climbed since Donald Trump was elected president as investors bet his pro-growth agenda and rising interest rates would help lenders generate huge profits. But this month, executives at some of the country’s largest regional banks said customers, especially corporations and small businesses, are inste...
Not everyone likes to hear about the threat of nuclear war. Some find refuge in denial and say that nuclear war is impossible because it makes no sense. Unfortunately, humankind has a long record of doing things that make no sense.
In previous posts in recent years I have pointed out both written documents and changes in US war doctrine that indicate that Washington is preparing a preemptive nuclear attac...
As the United Nations Security Council decides whether to tighten the sanctions screws on North Korea, the country's increasingly isolated government could lose a lifeline provided by state-owned China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).
Could historical outflows present an opportunity? Yesterday Sentimentrader.com reported that outflows from Gold Miners ETF’s GDX and GDXJ topped $800 million on 4/26, the largest single day outflows in history.
Below looks at Gold Miners ETF GDX, reflecting where these large outflows took place.
It was another quiet day for indices but the Semiconductor index was able to add over 1% on the day. This also helped post gains to the Nasdaq 100, although there was a relative gain for the Semiconductor Index against the latter index.
The Nasdaq 100 registered an accumulation day despite its underperformance against Small Caps. The index remains well placed to make a move to upper channel resistance.
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
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I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.
Four Part Discussion
Macro Economic Indicators
1. Macro Economic Indicators
We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market.
A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long. In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.
CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.
From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.
CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...
Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.
In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.
This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.
Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for
informational purposes only and is based upon information that is
considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW)
nor its affiliates
warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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