Posts Tagged ‘Corey Rosenbloom’

Chart Junkie: Gold from Several Perspectives and Unemployment

Chart Junkie: Gold from Several Perspectives and Unemployment

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet  

Chart Junkie

 

Gold long term

“The Professor” Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade offers us a longer term look at Gold. Although it’s breaking out on the shorter-term charts, the chart above clearly indicates there exists resistance above which must be cleared for the next bull rally to run. (Source: Afraid to Trade)

gold in currencies 9-4-09_small

Gold Priced in Multiple Currencies

Precision Capital Management offers a very interesting look at Gold priced in multiple currencies. They state: “Gold is one of the leading indicators we follow at our website.  Everyone seems to have noticed the spike up this week in gold, but how do we determine if the move is real, or merely a fakeout?  To confirm that gold is advancing on its own merits as part of a longer term move, which is not the result solely of US Dollar weakness, we want to see confirmation of an up move in gold priced in other currencies.  Above shows gold priced in the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and the Euro (EUR).  When gold began its last advance in November 2008, the move was confirmed by higher lows in the commodity currencies of the CAD and AUD, as well as the EUR (even though there were lower lows in the JPY and USD gold).  Eventually, there were higher lows in the JPY and USD gold at the beginning of December 2008.  Accordingly, for the gold bull case, early confirmation would be to see current lows in AUD, CAD and EUR gold respected on the first pullback (especially in the former two as they are commodity currencies), preferably accompanied with a break through overhead resistance.” (Source: Precision Capital Management

Gold with Fibonacci Indicators

Gold with Fibonacci Indicators

Our partners over at RatioTrading bring us yet our third and final perspective on Gold: “As demonstrated in this chart, Gold has historically respected key Fibonacci Ratio levels and with Gold retesting all time highs, where could it be headed?  Well as we look historically over the past year or so we see that in many instances when the GLD broke out and made a new low, it went right to either a 1.272 Fibonacci extension ($73)…
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Key Reversal Bar Seen on NASDAQ QQQQ

Key Reversal Bar Seen on NASDAQ QQQQ

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I wanted to highlight an interesting potential “Key Reversal” bar in the NASDAQ ETF QQQQ.  Let’s take a look:

QQQQ chart, afraid to trade

Take a look at the bar I highlighted on August 28.  Price gapped upwards off the opening (due in part to the Consumer Confidence expectation) and formed a fresh 2009 high for the year… before reversing off the open and selling off almost the whole day.

Generally, a more ‘perfect’ key reversal bar would close lower than the prior bar, but what draws my attention to this bar is the logic behind it.

Imagine, you’re a bull and you see a long price advance and you’ve been sitting on the sideline, or have money you want to invest in the market that you’ve been holding.  All of the sudden, a gap occurs and you can’t wait any longer so you rush in and put your money to work, excited and fearful that you’re missing the rising boat.

However, price begins to sell off just as you are most confident and you now become stressed and confused.  Perhaps you hang on to your long position in hopes of a recovery (because now you are ‘underwater’) and if price continues to fall – like it is doing today (September 1st), then you ‘cry uncle’ and sell your shares at a loss.

Key reversal bars that gap up and then sell off all day are generally rare, but can be powerful short-term or even intermediate term trading signals, because it captures the euphoria of the bulls and then leads to downward movement as their hopes are dashed as they sell at lower and lower prices.

Beyond the key reversal bar drawn above, we see a critical negative momentum divergence as price tapped above the upper daily Bollinger Band – that’s enough reason to take a short-sale scalp/swing trade with a tight stop.

Study this pattern a little more and let’s see if we continue to get downside momentum from a possible ‘buying climax’ high.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 


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August Long Term Elliott Wave Update on SP500

August Long Term Elliott Wave Update on SP500

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

It’s time for the August Elliott Wave Count update on the S&P 500.  I will show the two most plausible Elliott Wave Counts which remain unchanged from May’s Elliott Wave Update (which successfully targeted 1,000 as a minimum upside target in the S&P 500).  Please review that post for deeper context as you read the August update.

First, let’s take a look at the monthly structure:

chart
The 2000 high was a major peak (most likely a large scale Wave III) and virtually all Elliotticians agree we are in a long-term (10 year) expanded flat (ABC) which is shown on the graph above.

Whether or not we have completed the “C” wave is up for interpretation as will be shown below, but this is the generally accepted “Larger Elliott Picture” in a simplified version for you.

Now, let’s revisit the “Most Bullish Scenario” as described in May’s post which WOULD assume that Cycle Wave C (circled) is complete and that we are in a new bull market:

Chart S&P 500 index

As a disclaimer, I am not yet in agreement with this count, and this would be known as a ‘minority’ wave count that few in the Elliott Community have as their primary count.  However, I like to consider charts from all angles and remove bias when possible, so I am presenting this as a possibility.

Without getting too technical, this count would assume that the required 5 “Primary” Waves of the Cycle C have all completed, and that we are now on the cusp of a Brand New Bull Market.

I noted that I am skeptical of this count because the 5th wave does not subdivide properly into 5 waves, and is shorter than the 1st wave which is unusual.  That being said, Wave 5 did make a lower low than the 3rd wave, so this is most definitely a plausible count.

It would assume that Waves 1 and 2 of a fractal new Primary Wave 1 Up have formed and that we would be in a powerful third wave up here.

We will know this count is wrong if we make a new low beneath 666 in the near future, and will know that this count is correct if we have a powerful rally up from current levels…
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Dow Daily Structure July 15th

Dow Daily Structure July 15th

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I’ve tended to focus a lot of my analysis on the S&P 500, but let’s take a step back to look at the Dow Jones Index for possible clues and an interesting pattern that *could* be forming on the daily chart.

Dow Daily Structure, chart

As much as I hesititate to believe it, there is a possibility that the Dow is forming an expanding triangle or broadening formation, with an upside target near 9,000 (which would be a retest of the January highs).

We still have a negative volume divergence and a negative triple-swing momentum divergence which the bulls are going to have to overcome, and I think it will be difficult to do, particularly given the “Summer Seasonality” (stocks tend to experience seasonal weakness in the summer months, or at least a flat, trading range as volatility/volume is expected to decrease).

I’m mainly posting this as a “Hmm.  This is interesting” and basing it off the swing highs and lows and the trendlines that originate from the May highs and lows which seems a natural fit.

Without effort, price shattered overhead EMA confluence resistance thanks to Intel’s (INTC) earnings surprise and the market’s reaction to it.

Keep this as a possibility as we get more information.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com 

 


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The Endgame of 2016?s Anti-Establishment Politics

 

The Endgame of 2016′s Anti-Establishment Politics

Courtesy of Robert Reich

Will Bernie Sanders’s supporters rally behind Hillary Clinton if she gets the nomination? Likewise, if Donald Trump is denied the Republican nomination, will his supporters back whoever gets the Republican nod?

If 2008 is any guide, the answer is unambiguously yes to both. About 90 percent of people who backed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries that year ended up supporting Barack Obama in the general election. About the same percent of Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney backers came around to supporting John McCain.

But 2008 may not be a good guide to the 2016 election, whose most conspicuous feature is furious antipathy to the political establishment.

Outsiders and maveri...



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Zero Hedge

Why We're So Unhealthy

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via PeakProsperity.com,

That America is in the throes of a systemic health crisis can no longer be denied. According to the U.S. Department of Health And Human Services, more than two-thirds (68.8 percent) of adults are overweight or obese.  (Overweight is typically defined as a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 or higher. A BMI of 24.9 is not exactly featherweight; I would have to add 30 pounds to reach a BMI of 24.9. )

The health risks of being overweight or obese include:

    ...


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Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: The Global Rally Loses Ground

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The global rally in equities reversed and lost ground last week. All eight indexes on our watch list were negative for the week, and the average of the eight was a disappointing -2.18%. The range was considerable, from China's top-performing Shanghai Composite, down less than a percent to the Japan's Nikkei, down over five percent.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

US Weekly Economic Data Review and Next Week’s Schedule (Bespoke)

Below we show a summary of US economic data released this week. Despite beats on some big components, GDP disappointed, as did Durable Goods earlier this week.

Euro-Area Economy Is Finally Back to Its Pre-Crisis Size (Bloomberg)

The euro-area economy is finally back from the crisis — at least in regard to economic output.

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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ValueWalk

The Psychology of Human Misjudgment | 25 Cognitive Biases | Charlie Munger @ Harvard University

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Psychology of Human Misjudgment | 25 Cognitive Biases | Charlie Munger @ Harvard University

Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Published on Apr 10, 2016

The Psychology of Human Misjudgment talk by Charlie Munger. Also known as Charlie Munger's 25 Cognitive Bias talk.

Charlie Munger, the billionaire investor and friend of Warren Buffett gave this to talk to high level MBA programs and value investors, to help improve ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar breaking down, below monthly support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Starting in 2014, the US Dollar experienced one of its strongest 12-month rallies in its history. That strong rally pushed it up to the top of a trading channel and drove monthly momentum to the highest levels in the past 15-years.

Over the past 12-months, the US$ has pretty much just traded sideways.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; US Dollar could close out the month at “new monthly closing lows” when looking back over the past 15-months, as momentu...



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Biotech

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin About To Soar?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back on September 2, 2015 when bitcoin was trading at $230, we laid out the simplest and most fundamental reason why, irrelevant of one's ideological persuasion with "alternative" or digital currency - bitcoin would soar.

it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the ...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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