Posts Tagged ‘Corey Rosenbloom’

Chart Junkie: Gold from Several Perspectives and Unemployment

Chart Junkie: Gold from Several Perspectives and Unemployment

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman at Wall St. Cheat Sheet  

Chart Junkie

 

Gold long term

“The Professor” Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade offers us a longer term look at Gold. Although it’s breaking out on the shorter-term charts, the chart above clearly indicates there exists resistance above which must be cleared for the next bull rally to run. (Source: Afraid to Trade)

gold in currencies 9-4-09_small

Gold Priced in Multiple Currencies

Precision Capital Management offers a very interesting look at Gold priced in multiple currencies. They state: “Gold is one of the leading indicators we follow at our website.  Everyone seems to have noticed the spike up this week in gold, but how do we determine if the move is real, or merely a fakeout?  To confirm that gold is advancing on its own merits as part of a longer term move, which is not the result solely of US Dollar weakness, we want to see confirmation of an up move in gold priced in other currencies.  Above shows gold priced in the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and the Euro (EUR).  When gold began its last advance in November 2008, the move was confirmed by higher lows in the commodity currencies of the CAD and AUD, as well as the EUR (even though there were lower lows in the JPY and USD gold).  Eventually, there were higher lows in the JPY and USD gold at the beginning of December 2008.  Accordingly, for the gold bull case, early confirmation would be to see current lows in AUD, CAD and EUR gold respected on the first pullback (especially in the former two as they are commodity currencies), preferably accompanied with a break through overhead resistance.” (Source: Precision Capital Management

Gold with Fibonacci Indicators

Gold with Fibonacci Indicators

Our partners over at RatioTrading bring us yet our third and final perspective on Gold: “As demonstrated in this chart, Gold has historically respected key Fibonacci Ratio levels and with Gold retesting all time highs, where could it be headed?  Well as we look historically over the past year or so we see that in many instances when the GLD broke out and made a new low, it went right to either a 1.272 Fibonacci extension ($73)…
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Key Reversal Bar Seen on NASDAQ QQQQ

Key Reversal Bar Seen on NASDAQ QQQQ

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I wanted to highlight an interesting potential “Key Reversal” bar in the NASDAQ ETF QQQQ.  Let’s take a look:

QQQQ chart, afraid to trade

Take a look at the bar I highlighted on August 28.  Price gapped upwards off the opening (due in part to the Consumer Confidence expectation) and formed a fresh 2009 high for the year… before reversing off the open and selling off almost the whole day.

Generally, a more ‘perfect’ key reversal bar would close lower than the prior bar, but what draws my attention to this bar is the logic behind it.

Imagine, you’re a bull and you see a long price advance and you’ve been sitting on the sideline, or have money you want to invest in the market that you’ve been holding.  All of the sudden, a gap occurs and you can’t wait any longer so you rush in and put your money to work, excited and fearful that you’re missing the rising boat.

However, price begins to sell off just as you are most confident and you now become stressed and confused.  Perhaps you hang on to your long position in hopes of a recovery (because now you are ‘underwater’) and if price continues to fall – like it is doing today (September 1st), then you ‘cry uncle’ and sell your shares at a loss.

Key reversal bars that gap up and then sell off all day are generally rare, but can be powerful short-term or even intermediate term trading signals, because it captures the euphoria of the bulls and then leads to downward movement as their hopes are dashed as they sell at lower and lower prices.

Beyond the key reversal bar drawn above, we see a critical negative momentum divergence as price tapped above the upper daily Bollinger Band – that’s enough reason to take a short-sale scalp/swing trade with a tight stop.

Study this pattern a little more and let’s see if we continue to get downside momentum from a possible ‘buying climax’ high.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

 


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August Long Term Elliott Wave Update on SP500

August Long Term Elliott Wave Update on SP500

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

It’s time for the August Elliott Wave Count update on the S&P 500.  I will show the two most plausible Elliott Wave Counts which remain unchanged from May’s Elliott Wave Update (which successfully targeted 1,000 as a minimum upside target in the S&P 500).  Please review that post for deeper context as you read the August update.

First, let’s take a look at the monthly structure:

chart
The 2000 high was a major peak (most likely a large scale Wave III) and virtually all Elliotticians agree we are in a long-term (10 year) expanded flat (ABC) which is shown on the graph above.

Whether or not we have completed the “C” wave is up for interpretation as will be shown below, but this is the generally accepted “Larger Elliott Picture” in a simplified version for you.

Now, let’s revisit the “Most Bullish Scenario” as described in May’s post which WOULD assume that Cycle Wave C (circled) is complete and that we are in a new bull market:

Chart S&P 500 index

As a disclaimer, I am not yet in agreement with this count, and this would be known as a ‘minority’ wave count that few in the Elliott Community have as their primary count.  However, I like to consider charts from all angles and remove bias when possible, so I am presenting this as a possibility.

Without getting too technical, this count would assume that the required 5 “Primary” Waves of the Cycle C have all completed, and that we are now on the cusp of a Brand New Bull Market.

I noted that I am skeptical of this count because the 5th wave does not subdivide properly into 5 waves, and is shorter than the 1st wave which is unusual.  That being said, Wave 5 did make a lower low than the 3rd wave, so this is most definitely a plausible count.

It would assume that Waves 1 and 2 of a fractal new Primary Wave 1 Up have formed and that we would be in a powerful third wave up here.

We will know this count is wrong if we make a new low beneath 666 in the near future, and will know that this count is correct if we have a powerful rally up from current levels…
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Dow Daily Structure July 15th

Dow Daily Structure July 15th

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid to Trade

I’ve tended to focus a lot of my analysis on the S&P 500, but let’s take a step back to look at the Dow Jones Index for possible clues and an interesting pattern that *could* be forming on the daily chart.

Dow Daily Structure, chart

As much as I hesititate to believe it, there is a possibility that the Dow is forming an expanding triangle or broadening formation, with an upside target near 9,000 (which would be a retest of the January highs).

We still have a negative volume divergence and a negative triple-swing momentum divergence which the bulls are going to have to overcome, and I think it will be difficult to do, particularly given the “Summer Seasonality” (stocks tend to experience seasonal weakness in the summer months, or at least a flat, trading range as volatility/volume is expected to decrease).

I’m mainly posting this as a “Hmm.  This is interesting” and basing it off the swing highs and lows and the trendlines that originate from the May highs and lows which seems a natural fit.

Without effort, price shattered overhead EMA confluence resistance thanks to Intel’s (INTC) earnings surprise and the market’s reaction to it.

Keep this as a possibility as we get more information.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com 

 


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Zero Hedge

Obama's Parting Gift: $20 Trillion In Public Debt And A Rising Budget Deficit

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

According to the US Treasury, on Thursday, August 25, total US public debt hit an all time high of $19.5 trillion.

This means that US debt under president Obama has nearly doubled from $10.6 trillion to $19.5 trillion: there is a good chance that on the last day of Obama's presidency, total debt will be in the $20 trillion range.

Yet even as US debt h...



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ValueWalk

Robert Janson Of Westcourt Capital Discussing Investing In Russia

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.


Robert Janson Of Westcourt Capital Discussing Investing In Russia

Image source: YouTube Video Screenshot

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Phil's Favorites

Here's Why B of A's Chart of Fast Growing Low Wages Is BS

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner

Good guy Sam Ro, now at Yahoo, tweeted out a chart by Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) this morning showing that low wage job gains have outpaced gains in high wage jobs.I happen to keep charts on wage growth by industry, so I know a little about the subject. I had my usual calm and measured response.

@bySamRo Hell NO, Sam Ro! It’s all relative, isn’t it? Tell BAML they’re full of shit. pic.twitter.com/WFtsM3Siur

— Wall Street Examiner (@Lee_Adler) August 26, 2016

...



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Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: Six of the Eight Post Losses ... Again

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Only two of the eight equity indexes on our global watch list posted week-over-week gains in our latest update, same as last week. The two Eurozone indexes, France's CAC and Germany's DAXK, were the two who finished in the green, a shift from the Asian advance the previous week, when the Shanghai and Hang Seng were the sole gainers. In fact, the Shanghai Composite did a complete flip from its 1.88% gain the previous week to its -1.22% finish on Friday. The average of the eight improved fractionally from -0.56% the previous week to -0.39% for the latest.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. We'...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Corporate Profits Cloud U.S. Investment, Hiring Outlook (Bloomberg)

Before-tax corporate earnings fell 4.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fifth consecutive decline and the worst streak since the end of the recession in mid-2009, Commerce Department figures showed on Friday.

Central bankers ponder moving the goalposts (Financial Times)

Central bankers gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual Federal Reserve symposium on economics are in a challenging position.

...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Basic Materials attempting breakout says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Basic Materials stocks can often times give a decent snap shot of how an economy is doing from a growth or lack of perspective. Below looks at Basic Materials ETF (IYM) over the past decade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

IYM remains inside of an upward sloping mult-year rising channel (1), since 2009. It hit the bottom of this channel earlier this year and has bounce off support. Currently IYM is testing f...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 22nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust

 

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg

Excerpt:

Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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