Posts Tagged ‘cyclical recovery’

INNOVATION: What made America great is now Killing her!

INNOVATION: What made America great is now Killing her! 

"Creative Destruction is Secular not Cyclical"

Courtesy of Gordon T. Long   

What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate.  Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to.

This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America.  Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is.  It is called Creative Destruction. 

It turns out that what made America great is now killing her!

Our political leaders are presently addressing what they perceive as an intractable cyclical recovery problem when in fact it is a structural problem that is secular in nature. Like generals fighting the last war with outdated perceptions, we face a new and daunting challenge. A challenge that needs to be addressed with the urgency and scope of a Marshall plan that saved Europe from the ravages of a different type of destruction. We need a modern US centric Marshall plan focused on growth, but orders of magnitude larger than the one in the 1940’s. A plan even more brash than Kennedy’s plan in the 60’s to put a man of the moon by the end of the decade. America needs to again think and act boldly. First however, we need to see the enemy. As the great philosopher Pogo said: “I saw the enemy and it was I”.

THE  PROBLEM IS NOT CYCLICAL, IT IS SECULAR.

The dotcom bubble ushered in a change in America that is still reverberating through the nation and around the globe. The Internet unleashed productivity opportunities of unprecedented proportions in addition to new business models, new ways of doing business and completely new and never before realized markets.  Ten years ago there was no such position as a Web Master; having a home PC was primarily for doing word processing and creating spreadsheets; Apple made MACs; and ordering on-line was a quaint experiment for…
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ValueWalk

Energy Sector Holding Back S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings

By Clayton Browne. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It looks like low oil prices are here to stay, and that's not good news for the oil and gas industry. Moreover, the beleaguered energy sector has clearly become a major drag on the overall performance of the S&P 500. According to a July 24th report from FactSet Insight, ex-energy firms, the S&P 500 earnings growth rate is actually 4.1% instead of an anemic -2.2% including the oil and gas sector.

John Butters, Senior Energy Analyst for FactSet, highlights the poor numbers for the energy sector. "The Energy sector is reporting the largest year-over-year decline in earnings (-54.4%) and revenues (-38.2%) of all 10 sectors. This sector is also the largest contributor to the ye...



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Zero Hedge

Frontrunning: July 28

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

  • Fed Officials May Offer More Clarity on Rates (WSJ)
  • Stocks rebound, shrugging off volatile and weak China (Reuters)
  • Three-Day Selloff Knocks 11% From China Shares (WSJ)
  • China shares fall again as Beijing scrambles to calm markets (Reuters)
  • VAT hikes to make Greek destination less popular (...


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Phil's Favorites

Information overload is making us dumber investors

"Information overload" may be especially problematic when we don't have a plan or don't stick with our plan. For example, we may have a long term goal for a stock, but then short term information gets presented, and we act on it, abandoning our original thesis. This can lead to over-trading, chasing the news, and ultimately, regrets. 

Information overload is making us dumber investors

BY JEFF REEVES'S STRENGTH IN NUMBERS

Excerpt:

We live in an age of seemingly infinite information, and that’s great in many ways. But that doesn’t make investors any smarter.

Stock rese...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

2015 has simply not been a fun year in the stock market (Business Insider)

2015 has not been a fun year for stock investors. 

In 2015, the S&P 500, which opened the year nearly at all-time highs, has made a new all-time high just 10 times. For a point of comparison, at this time last time at this year, the benchmark index had hit 27 fresh all-time records, and when 2014 was said and done, the S&P 500 had hit a new record 53 times. 

The bull in China’s shop has no more room to run (Market Watch) ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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Chart School

Fifth Day of Selling

Courtesy of Declan.

Sellers in the S&P made it five days of downside in a row. On this last day it closed near the day's lows, but also on its 200-day MA. If there was reason for a bounce, then tomorrow could be the day.  Technicals are all net negative.


The Dow took the selling harder. It undercut the July swing low having earlier lost its 200-day MA. Next up is the February swing low.


Small Caps finished at its 200-day MA, after it lost trendline support on Friday...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Be aware of these surroundings friends!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

It could pay to be “aware of these surroundings!”

(1) – Nasdaq Composite Index is back at 2000 highs, with little wiggle room at the top of this rising wedge pattern

(2) – Google shot up after earnings two weeks ago hitting a resistance line based upon its 2007 highs and a 161% Fibonacci extension level, where it made a reversal pattern.

(3) – Red hot Biotech (IBB) is at the top of this rising channel and created a potential reversal pattern with support just below current prices.

(4) – TLT declined, hitting its 38% retracement level and of late is breaking above this bullish fall...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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