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Posts Tagged ‘Dave’s Daily’

Dave’s Daily

Dave’s Daily Market Comment

September 15, 2009

NO SPEED BUMPS IN SIGHT?

This rally has only modest volume (although more today) and positive major news remains thin but always “better than expected” (Retail Sales and Empire State Mfg Survey). But, hey, Bernanke postulates that the recession is “likely over”. Now, who the hell knew that?!! Geithner was more equivocal in his comments saying a “true recovery still has a ways to go”. Well, okay, let’s just say things are better than before.

Volume increased on an up day for a change but some of this is misleading given one glance at the late day trading on the 5 minute SPY chart. Breadth however was positive but not overwhelmingly so.

Read all of Dave’s Daily here.>>

 

 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 28, 2009

Investors continue to sell relatively good news, the opposite of previous actions. The market and investors are tired. It’s probably just that simple. With conditions still overbought on a long-term basis some sideways to down action can be beneficial.

Intel provided an initial lift and Dell was also strong early after positive results and comments from both firms. That was the good news easily dismissed later as traders headed for the exits early. They left a few sentries guarding the F-10 keys on their HAL 9000s and then headed to the Hamptons or elsewhere. The custom has been to take an extended end of summer holiday week before Labor Day but we’ll see if that’s the case in 2009.

Sure, the negative focus was on the Consumer Sentiment but, hey, they beat forecasts but not by enough. It gets silly sometimes since disappointing was the reading for August (65.7), which beat consensus estimates, but was below July’s (66). Talk about picky! Making matters even sillier are those believing positive things about the consumer to begin with! To add to the confusion, XLY (Consumer Discretionary ETF) closed higher on the day by a penny.

Volume was ultra-light which shouldn’t surprise for a Friday on the last week of August. Breadth was interesting given the split on share A/D for the NASDAQ vs volume A/D which I would read as action favoring just the biggest names in tech. 

Full Market Comment here >>.
 

 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave’s Daily ETF Digest, August 25, 2009

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We got market moving news today and it was all “better than expected” but the news was sold steadily after the initial burst of enthusiasm for the data.

Commodities were sold hard for the most part as traders speculated that a large fall in the Shanghai markets overnight indicates that demand for base metals is easing. Perhaps this is a correction base metals need or something more serious and that impacted the materials sector negatively today. Action like this in commodity markets usually spills over to other markets as traders scramble to even things up in a hurry since they’re leveraged.

Speaking of commodity markets, it was reported today that GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) now held 1,066.41 metric tons of gold as of Monday. If Commissar Gensler is hell bent on avoiding commodity market players from attempts to “corner the market” then GLD and SLV should be a priority. Since most commodity tracking funds merely rollover contracts and don’t take delivery they shouldn’t be considered as a hoarding threat whereas GLD and SLV for example are massive hoarders. There are many rumors circulating regarding GLD and people suggesting that you dump it and take physical delivery yourself. These are the true gold bugs talking their book. Gensler continues to amaze with his “break it first and fix it later” approach to current position limit issues from the exchange.

I’ve dealt with both institutions and individual investors over 35 years of investing and lost in the current controversy from Commissar Gensler’s CFTC is a voice for individual investors vs firms like Gensler’s old firm Goldman Sachs who don’t give a rip about retail investors. Once you break something that was previously trusted individuals will lose confidence and trust in the investment since “something’s wrong” and they’ll just avoid it. That’s a major mistake by the Commissar and a tremendous disservice to individual investors in particular. This is an ongoing and developing story that will continue to year end… 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily Market Comment

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Dave’s Daily
MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry, July 21, 2009

Click here for Dave’s full market update

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We’re all seeing the ongoing “better than expected” earnings news. One headline screamed, “Stocks rise on solid earnings reports.” Solid? CAT’s earnings were 66% lower than previously which qualified as a “beat”, but solid? That’s pretty generous don’t you think? It really doesn’t matter since bulls have seized the tape and bears appear washed-out…

 

 

There are many smart people who naysay this rally. They may be proven correct at some point but for now the action belongs to the bulls…

 


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Dave’s Daily Market Comment

Dave’s Daily Market Comment,

Courtesy of Dave Fry, July 20, 2009

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You can’t argue with new highs. The only thing missing in this rally is you since volume is incredibly light. Therefore, the only conclusion is computers are trading against one another. Friday’s volume was as low as a typical half day of trading during the Christmas holiday break. But this is the way things are now and we must accept it and deal with it. Stocks rose today on continued momentum from the usual “better than expected” theme and CIT being taken care of by its own creditors supposedly. It does make one wonder at the arbitrary and random nature of bailouts giving rise to conflict of interest accusations…. 

SPY chart 

 

The volume is light but those still involved have things nicely under control. The HAL 9000s aren’t as idle as individual investors in my opinion. For an inside look at how these machines run markets please review these links that support Da Boyz in their enterprise here, here and perhaps here as well. These are eye-openers for sure…

For the full Dave’s Daily Market Comment, go here.

 


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Phil's Favorites

Containment Theory Blows Sky High: German Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 45; French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years

 

Courtesy of Mish

The Pollyannas who thought the European recession would be short, shallow, and contained to the periphery have another thing coming. All three ideas were downright silly as I have long stated.

French Manufacturing PMI Plunges to 44.4, Sharpest Contraction in 3 Years

Markit reports French private sector output falls at sharpest rate for over three years.

 Key points:
  • Flash France Composite Output Index drops to 44.7 (45.9 in April), 37-month low
  • Flash France Services Activity Index unchanged at 45.2
  • Flash France Manufacturing PMI falls to 44.4 (46.9 in April), 36-month low
  • ...


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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Another Save at the Bell

Courtesy of Doug Short.

The S&P 500 got off to weak start and, after retracing a modest morning rally, spent most of the day in the shallow red with an intraday low of 0.63%. But in the last seven minutes of trading, the index recovered enough to a make a small gain of 0.14%. This is the fourth advance, the first was Monday's 1.60 surge, but the last three have ranged from 0.05% to 0.17% with today's close near the high of the miserly three-day series.

The index is now up 5.02% for 2012, which is 6.93% off the interim closing high.

From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 95.2% above the March 2009 closing low and 15.6% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

 

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Zero Hedge

May Hedge Funds Performance Update: Red Is Bad

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

And it was shaping up to be such a good year. According to the latest just released HSBC hedge fund performance update, increasingly more funds are starting to lose it, certainly for the month, but increasingly more for the year. How many LPs will be eager to keep on paying 2% management fees (forget performance) to funds who at best are long AAPL (at least 226 of them), and at worst have underperformed the S&P, for the second year in a row, by anywhere from 5 to 15%?

Select HF performance:

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Option Review

Traders Take To Tiffany & Co. Options After Earnings, Guidance Disappoint

 

Today’s tickers: TIF, P & NYT

TIF - Tiffany & Co., Inc. – A surprise earnings miss and a reduced full-year profit and sales forecast from luxury jewelry retailer, Tiffany & Co., took some of the luster out of its shares today, with the stock trading down 8.5% at $56.55 as of 11:50 a.m. in New York. Options activity on Tiffany this morning suggests mixed sentiment on the st...



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Insider Scoop

RealNetworks Reaches Agreement with Washington State Attorney General

Courtesy of Benzinga.

RealNetworks, Inc. (NASDAQ: RNWK) today announced that it has reached an agreement with the Washington State Attorney General over discontinued e-commerce practices. In accordance with the settlement agreement, RealNetworks has committed to:

Discontinuing the use of pre-checked boxes for purchases of RealNetworks subscription products; Spelling out more clearly the material terms of RealNetworks product offerings; Offering online cancellation of subscription offerings; Enhancing RealNetworks customer support guidelines regarding cancellation. Statement from Thomas Nielsen, President & CEO of RealNetworks:

"About two years ago, the Washington State Attorney General's Office contacted us regarding concerns they had with some of our e-commerce practices.

"While we disagree wit...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market Montage

Chinese, European Data Continues to Weaken as Market Potentially Forming New Bear Flag

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

First we'll go to the technicals.  Back in mid April I had opined a 'bear flag' formation was being created. [Apr 17, 2012: Potential Bear Flag Forming]  But the market being the difficult beast it is, head faked everyone and rather than a break down from said flag it first went UP and nearly touched yearly highs.  This caused everyone to think the bear flag had failed…. only to lead to a horrid May in the market.  Generally a bear flag will resolve relatively quickly but the longer...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New “Grecian Formula” is making us all gray

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Despite the fact that U.S. equities are well-positioned and well-supported to go up, once again it is the headlines out of Europe—especially Greece—that are scaring off investors. Some are saying that it is now likely (and even desirable) that Greece will default on all its sovereign debt, withdraw from the euro, and severely devalue its domestic currency (Drachma?). This will allow them to operate a balanced budget while pumping cash into growth initiatives, rather than suffer the ravages of Germany-mandated austerity.

Some say, so what? Greece makes up only about 2% of the Eurozone’s overall economy. Nevertheless, you might say that t...



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ETF Selector

Markets Die Then Flatten…Again (SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, FB)

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Markets died and then rallied to flat again as European leaders “prepared contingencies” for a possible Grexit

Markets died hard and fast earlier today as major indexes registered as much as 1.5% of losses after news that Euro zone officials were unofficially “preparing contingencies” for a Greek exit from the Euro.  Unofficial statements were not enough to keep markets down however, as major indexes rallied back to flat levels by the end of the day.

So the world continues to wait on Europe, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEACA:SPY) gained .05%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 21st, 2012

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly: Test Issue

NEW: Ilene is available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is this week's test version of the latest newsletter. We apologize for some formatting issues that need to be worked out. Please tell us what you think. 

Click on Stock World Weekly here, and sign in/sign up.

...

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Pharmboy

Big Pharma - Where Are We Now?

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm."  This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers!  Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines.  Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...



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IRA Strategy/Income Trader

Weekend Virtual Portfolio Update 2/26/2012

My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin. FAS Money We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update. Last update P&L - $5499.00 IWM Money Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update. Last update P&L - $1998.00 $5KP Portfolio This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K. AAPL $50K P...

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