Posts Tagged ‘Dick Bove’

Dick Bove Says Chance Of Double Dip Is Now 40-60%, Butchers JPM Earnings & Jamie Dimon

Dick Bove Says Chance Of Double Dip Is Now 40-60%, Butchers JPM Earnings And Jamie Dimon

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Something is rotten in the state of Rochdale. One of the most bullish banking analysts ever, Dick Bove, just crucified not only JP Morgan’s earnings report, but also said Jamie Dimon "missed it completely on housing", and lastly, has turned extremely bearish on the overall economy, saying there is a 40-60% chance for a double dip, which at last check is probably more bearish than David Rosenberg. Bove throws up all over JPM "good" results, stating it is all a function of loan loss reductions, which the bank is in no way entitled to take at this point, when there is so much negative macro data piling up. As NPLs are likely to continue deteriorating in the future, should the economy weaken further, JPM would have to not only replenish existing accounting gimmicks such as boosting Net Income via balance sheet trickery, but to put even more cash to preserve a viable capitalization ratio. As Bove is the quintessential contrarian indicator, we are preparing for a month long sabbatical to a Buddhist monastery in Tibet to thoroughly reevaluate our perspectives on the universe.

Bove asks: "if the economy is going to expand, how is it going to expand when the money supply is shrinking. If you can’t come away with a strong feeling that this economy can plough right through a decline in money supply and continue to grow, then you better not be reducing reserves by $1.5Bn in a particular quarter." On the economy: "There is a "40-60% shot we are going to double dip. If they can’t get money supply to turn around and go up there is a very high probability we double dip." The reason: "The Fed has lost total control of money supply and it’s in the hand of the banks. The banks make money supply going up by lending money. If you want to force the banks to increase their capital ratios, they can’t increase their loans. If they don’t increase their loans, you don’t get an increase in the money supply. If you don’t get an increase in the money supply, it is very difficult to see how the economy can be robust going forward." And some shockingly harsh words on Jamie Dimon: "I would say Jamie Dimon missed it completely…
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BOVE: WALL STREET WINS ON FIN REG, MAIN STREET LOSES

BOVE: WALL STREET WINS ON FIN REG, MAIN STREET LOSES

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Dick Bove says the passing of financial regulation is a huge positive for the banks. He lays out his bull case for the banking sector and why this bill is not critically bad for bank earnings.  This could result in a near-term rally in the banks, but is ultimately bad for consumers as banks will simply sidestep the rules and pass along costs to consumers.   Bove concludes that a recession is likely now and that the passing of this bill was nothing more than a sideshow and more political pandering.  Unbelievable….We should just kick every incumbent out right now.  Obama claims this was a big victory for his administration, but the truth is that he cratered to the bank lobbyists once again.  Bove says this bill will not stop another crisis from occurring.  What an embarrassment….


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Cramer Changes Tune On Goldman, Says Charge Is Not “Frivolous” And Firm Will Have To Settle Or Pay $2-3 Billion Fine

Cramer Changes Tune On Goldman, Says Charge Is Not "Frivolous" And Firm Will Have To Settle Or Pay $2-3 Billion Fine

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Jim Cramer Interviews NASCAR Drivers

What a difference a day makes. First Cramer was firmly planted in the Steve Liesman camp, who in turn for the past week has been moonlighting as the semi-official Goldman PR manager, in "leaking" every piece of useless "absolving" information (a job only secondary in worthlessness to that of worst financial stock analyst ever Dick Bove who has been buying Goldman all the day down from $185), however now after actually doing some thinking, the troubled theStreet.com owner who himself is no stranger to SEC investigations, has diametrically changed his tune. In this morning’s edition of "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, Cramer said: "What makes this worse than most situations is that it’s entirely possible this young guy, who’s now holding the whole firm hostage, Fabrice Tourre – it’s entirely possible that he sold it fraudulently. If he did, then Goldman has no defense. So, what I would emphasize at this particular moment is that this guy is way too powerful. The hearings are going to go badly. Goldman knew they were going to have a Wells Notice, knew they were going to get prosecuted. They didn’t reveal it. It was totally material. Again they did that wrong.” But we thought that according to "GAMECHANGING" information which you yourself Jim broke, Goldman was ok: after all they lost "money on the deal", a conclusion so moronic it immediately led to derisive ridicule from fringe blog Zero Hedge. That said, we are pleased to bury the hatchet – after all even former Goldmanite and seasned CNBSer Jim now agrees that the vampire squid is in deep shit.

As Jeff Poor of Business and Media reports:

Cramer argued that Goldman would have better served by approaching the government hat in hand rather than taking an aggressive tack against the charges. As things are, however, he predicted serious consequences for the firm and its management.

“The main thing you have to understand is that Goldman has basically said, ‘Government, you’re just dead wrong,’ instead of saying, government, ‘We’re sorry, what do you need to do?’” Cramer explained. “In order to end this, if it’s a settlement, they will have to pay the largest fine in history and


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Citi Accounts For 20% Of Total Market Volume

Citi Accounts For 20% Of Total Market Volume

Courtesy of Tyler at Zero Hedge 

One stock, a company which is effectively bankrupt absent the government’s support and the FASB’s suspension of Rule 157, now accounts for 20% of total market volume. At last check, Citigroup had traded 1.6 billion shares, one fifth of total market volume. Why does anyone still fool themselves that the market is indicative of the total universe of stocks. We are confident that if we add Goldman, BofA and the other financials, especially their penny stock variants, we would get something like 40% of all volume. This is the sector which as we have repeatedly reported has seen short recalls by assorted custodian entities and repo desks.And as we type, Dick Bove is on CNBC providing the instacommentary he had previously banned himself from doing before, and confirming what we have been saying all along – that Goldman Sachs is a Buy only because it is a monopoly.

h/t Joe Saluzzi


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How much money is Wells Fargo really making?

How much money is Wells Fargo really making?

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Wells FargoThe positive earnings announcement by Wells Fargo on Wednesday was marred by a sell recommendation from Dick Bove and a lot of chatter about credit writedowns and mortgage servicing rights (MSRs). I wanted to add a few words about the report, MSRs, and bank stocks more generally.

First of all, this has been a very good quarter for bank earnings. Many of the big names globally have surprised to the upside. this includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, SEB in Sweden, Credit Suisse in Switzerland and on down the line. As one would expect, most banks are profiting from record low interest rates.

The question for the big banks is whether the huge writedowns they are still taking and the run-up in their stock prices since march limits any upside in valuation. For smaller banks, we should expect weaker results as they are more leveraged to the sectors of the economy like commercial real estate and construction loans which are still suffering.  Goldman and Morgan Stanley should do relatively better as they are really broker-dealers and both investment banking and sales & trading are doing well right now. On the whole, I have said I think upside is limited for the sector, but downside is vast. Hence I am bearish on bank stocks.

Let’s look at Wells Fargo (WFC) as an example of what is happening.

Wells reports record profits

Wells reported net income of $32 billion, a robust operating pre-tax profit of $10.8 billion, and record net income of $3.2 billion. Sounds wonderful. What’s not to like?  That was bank analysts Dick Bove’s initial impression as well. Live on-air at CNBC, he said Wells Fargo “is proving itself to be a standout.”


But, once Bove got a peek under the hood and started to crunch the numbers at Wells, he was significantly less impressed – so much so that he issued a sell rating literally nine hours later. And he took a lot of flak for this about-face.

The Wall Street Journal’s Market Beat reports:

Prominent banking analyst Dick Bove, who caused a stir Wednesday with seemingly contradictory remarks on Wells Fargo, has decided he’ll no longer provide immediate earnings commentary on air.

“I’m not


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Dick Bove Tells Truth?!

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Dick Bove Tells Truth?!

Courtesy of Karl at The Market Ticker

 


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Zero Hedge

This Is What Draghi Said To Spark Speculation Of Another Global Central Bank Bailout

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Both Janet Yellen and Mark Carney may have previously announced they would withdraw from the ECB's Forum in Sintra, Portugal (due to pressing market stabilization issues), but it was what Mario Draghi said here that has captured the market's attention this morning. The head of the ECB avoided mentioning the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union but instead called for greater alignment of policies globally to mitigate the spillover risks from ultra-loose monetary measures

“We can benefit from alignment of policies,” Draghi said a...



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ValueWalk

Bill Gross on 'What'd You Miss'

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Bill Gross on ‘What’d You Miss'”>Bill Gross on ‘What’d You Miss’

Streamed live 5 hours ago
Today on ‘What’d You Miss,’ co-hosts Scarlet Fu & Alix Steel bring you live coverage of the market close and talk to Standard & Poor’s Chief Global Economist Paul Sheard about the G7 meeting. We’ll also bring you Erik Schatzker’s interview with Bill Gross, live from FI16 in Los Angeles (http://la.bbgfi16.com/). We’ll hear from the bond king on central bank policy and his outlook for global growth.

‘What’d You Miss’ with Alix Steel, Scarlet Fu, and Joe Weisenthal airs every weekday on Bloomberg TV from 4 – 5 pm ET:

The post ...



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Phil's Favorites

Australia Central Bank Worried About Deflation - Does Study, Blames Aldi

Courtesy of Mish.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is so concerned about deflation that it did a study on why prices are so low despite a 33% collapse in the Australian dollar vs. the US dollar since June 2011.

The RBA blamed competition and discounters like Aldi.

Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar

Worrying Trend

Lower prices are precisely what consumers want and need. Nonetheless, this headline from “down under” reflects prevailing silliness: ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Worlds Top Fortunes Fall $196.2 Billion Since Brexit Bombshell (Bloomberg)

Global markets erased another $69.2 billion from the combined net worth of the worlds 400 richest people Monday, bringing the total since the U.K. shocked investors with a vote to leave the European Union to $196.2 billion in the last two trading days.

Global stocks extend l...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Brexit Selloff Continues

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Friday's global selloff continued today as the S&P 500 plunged at open and continued through the morning. The sell-off recovered slightly over the following hours, but hit its -2.24% intraday low in the final hour. The index continues in the red at -2.12% year-to-date.

The flight to treasuries continued today. The 10-year note closed at 1.46%, down 11 basis points from the previous session.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

Here is a daily chart of the index, which has dropped below its 50-day moving average. Volume, as we mentioned above, increased dramatically.

Here's a look at the VIX volatility index, the celebrated "fear gauge" market indicator. Today's selloff continued well...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 27th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Global Leading Indicators, testing 6-year rising support channels

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Long before last weeks Brexit vote, Germany’s DAX index has been an upside and downside global stock market leader, over the past few years. Below looks at the pattern the DAX has created over the past decade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Since mid 2009 the DAX has remained inside of rising channel (A). The top of this channel was hit in April of 2015. Since hitting rising channel resistance, the DAX has ...



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Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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