Posts Tagged ‘Dick Bove’

Dick Bove Says Chance Of Double Dip Is Now 40-60%, Butchers JPM Earnings & Jamie Dimon

Dick Bove Says Chance Of Double Dip Is Now 40-60%, Butchers JPM Earnings And Jamie Dimon

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Something is rotten in the state of Rochdale. One of the most bullish banking analysts ever, Dick Bove, just crucified not only JP Morgan’s earnings report, but also said Jamie Dimon "missed it completely on housing", and lastly, has turned extremely bearish on the overall economy, saying there is a 40-60% chance for a double dip, which at last check is probably more bearish than David Rosenberg. Bove throws up all over JPM "good" results, stating it is all a function of loan loss reductions, which the bank is in no way entitled to take at this point, when there is so much negative macro data piling up. As NPLs are likely to continue deteriorating in the future, should the economy weaken further, JPM would have to not only replenish existing accounting gimmicks such as boosting Net Income via balance sheet trickery, but to put even more cash to preserve a viable capitalization ratio. As Bove is the quintessential contrarian indicator, we are preparing for a month long sabbatical to a Buddhist monastery in Tibet to thoroughly reevaluate our perspectives on the universe.

Bove asks: "if the economy is going to expand, how is it going to expand when the money supply is shrinking. If you can’t come away with a strong feeling that this economy can plough right through a decline in money supply and continue to grow, then you better not be reducing reserves by $1.5Bn in a particular quarter." On the economy: "There is a "40-60% shot we are going to double dip. If they can’t get money supply to turn around and go up there is a very high probability we double dip." The reason: "The Fed has lost total control of money supply and it’s in the hand of the banks. The banks make money supply going up by lending money. If you want to force the banks to increase their capital ratios, they can’t increase their loans. If they don’t increase their loans, you don’t get an increase in the money supply. If you don’t get an increase in the money supply, it is very difficult to see how the economy can be robust going forward." And some shockingly harsh words on Jamie Dimon: "I would say Jamie Dimon missed it completely…
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BOVE: WALL STREET WINS ON FIN REG, MAIN STREET LOSES

BOVE: WALL STREET WINS ON FIN REG, MAIN STREET LOSES

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Dick Bove says the passing of financial regulation is a huge positive for the banks. He lays out his bull case for the banking sector and why this bill is not critically bad for bank earnings.  This could result in a near-term rally in the banks, but is ultimately bad for consumers as banks will simply sidestep the rules and pass along costs to consumers.   Bove concludes that a recession is likely now and that the passing of this bill was nothing more than a sideshow and more political pandering.  Unbelievable….We should just kick every incumbent out right now.  Obama claims this was a big victory for his administration, but the truth is that he cratered to the bank lobbyists once again.  Bove says this bill will not stop another crisis from occurring.  What an embarrassment….


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Cramer Changes Tune On Goldman, Says Charge Is Not “Frivolous” And Firm Will Have To Settle Or Pay $2-3 Billion Fine

Cramer Changes Tune On Goldman, Says Charge Is Not "Frivolous" And Firm Will Have To Settle Or Pay $2-3 Billion Fine

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Jim Cramer Interviews NASCAR Drivers

What a difference a day makes. First Cramer was firmly planted in the Steve Liesman camp, who in turn for the past week has been moonlighting as the semi-official Goldman PR manager, in "leaking" every piece of useless "absolving" information (a job only secondary in worthlessness to that of worst financial stock analyst ever Dick Bove who has been buying Goldman all the day down from $185), however now after actually doing some thinking, the troubled theStreet.com owner who himself is no stranger to SEC investigations, has diametrically changed his tune. In this morning’s edition of "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, Cramer said: "What makes this worse than most situations is that it’s entirely possible this young guy, who’s now holding the whole firm hostage, Fabrice Tourre – it’s entirely possible that he sold it fraudulently. If he did, then Goldman has no defense. So, what I would emphasize at this particular moment is that this guy is way too powerful. The hearings are going to go badly. Goldman knew they were going to have a Wells Notice, knew they were going to get prosecuted. They didn’t reveal it. It was totally material. Again they did that wrong.” But we thought that according to "GAMECHANGING" information which you yourself Jim broke, Goldman was ok: after all they lost "money on the deal", a conclusion so moronic it immediately led to derisive ridicule from fringe blog Zero Hedge. That said, we are pleased to bury the hatchet – after all even former Goldmanite and seasned CNBSer Jim now agrees that the vampire squid is in deep shit.

As Jeff Poor of Business and Media reports:

Cramer argued that Goldman would have better served by approaching the government hat in hand rather than taking an aggressive tack against the charges. As things are, however, he predicted serious consequences for the firm and its management.

“The main thing you have to understand is that Goldman has basically said, ‘Government, you’re just dead wrong,’ instead of saying, government, ‘We’re sorry, what do you need to do?’” Cramer explained. “In order to end this, if it’s a settlement, they will have to pay the largest fine in history and


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Citi Accounts For 20% Of Total Market Volume

Citi Accounts For 20% Of Total Market Volume

Courtesy of Tyler at Zero Hedge 

One stock, a company which is effectively bankrupt absent the government’s support and the FASB’s suspension of Rule 157, now accounts for 20% of total market volume. At last check, Citigroup had traded 1.6 billion shares, one fifth of total market volume. Why does anyone still fool themselves that the market is indicative of the total universe of stocks. We are confident that if we add Goldman, BofA and the other financials, especially their penny stock variants, we would get something like 40% of all volume. This is the sector which as we have repeatedly reported has seen short recalls by assorted custodian entities and repo desks.And as we type, Dick Bove is on CNBC providing the instacommentary he had previously banned himself from doing before, and confirming what we have been saying all along – that Goldman Sachs is a Buy only because it is a monopoly.

h/t Joe Saluzzi


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How much money is Wells Fargo really making?

How much money is Wells Fargo really making?

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Wells FargoThe positive earnings announcement by Wells Fargo on Wednesday was marred by a sell recommendation from Dick Bove and a lot of chatter about credit writedowns and mortgage servicing rights (MSRs). I wanted to add a few words about the report, MSRs, and bank stocks more generally.

First of all, this has been a very good quarter for bank earnings. Many of the big names globally have surprised to the upside. this includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, SEB in Sweden, Credit Suisse in Switzerland and on down the line. As one would expect, most banks are profiting from record low interest rates.

The question for the big banks is whether the huge writedowns they are still taking and the run-up in their stock prices since march limits any upside in valuation. For smaller banks, we should expect weaker results as they are more leveraged to the sectors of the economy like commercial real estate and construction loans which are still suffering.  Goldman and Morgan Stanley should do relatively better as they are really broker-dealers and both investment banking and sales & trading are doing well right now. On the whole, I have said I think upside is limited for the sector, but downside is vast. Hence I am bearish on bank stocks.

Let’s look at Wells Fargo (WFC) as an example of what is happening.

Wells reports record profits

Wells reported net income of $32 billion, a robust operating pre-tax profit of $10.8 billion, and record net income of $3.2 billion. Sounds wonderful. What’s not to like?  That was bank analysts Dick Bove’s initial impression as well. Live on-air at CNBC, he said Wells Fargo “is proving itself to be a standout.”


But, once Bove got a peek under the hood and started to crunch the numbers at Wells, he was significantly less impressed – so much so that he issued a sell rating literally nine hours later. And he took a lot of flak for this about-face.

The Wall Street Journal’s Market Beat reports:

Prominent banking analyst Dick Bove, who caused a stir Wednesday with seemingly contradictory remarks on Wells Fargo, has decided he’ll no longer provide immediate earnings commentary on air.

“I’m not


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Dick Bove Tells Truth?!

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Dick Bove Tells Truth?!

Courtesy of Karl at The Market Ticker

 


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Phil's Favorites

It's 1929 for Goldbugs

Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown

The Wall Street Journal documents some very dire facts about the utter capitulation and panic among gold “investors” we’re witnessing.

The last time gold hit a record, after controlling for inflation, was 1980. It has never been back in inflation-adjusted terms and, at Friday’s close, was 57% below its 1980 peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, also adjusted for inflation, last hit a record on May 19. At Friday’s close it was 3.7% off that level.

Gold-mining companies have suffered more. The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index, which contains big gold producers, finished Friday down 82% from its 2011 high, near a 13-y...



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Zero Hedge

Washington's "Fifth Columns" Inside Russia And China

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Paul Craig Roberts,

It took two decades for Russia and China to understand that “pro-democracy” and “human rights” organizations operating within their countries were subversive organizations funded by the US Department of State and a collection of private American foundations organized by Washington. The real purpose of these non-governmental organizations (NGOs) is to advance Washington’s hegemony by destabilizing the two countries capable of resisting US hegemony.

Washington’s Fifth Columns pulled off &ld...



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ValueWalk

Fannie Mae Discovery Materials "Completely Discredit Government's Defense"

By valueplays. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fannie Mae Discovery Materials “Completely Discredit Government’s Defense”

From the filing:

Materials produced in discovery in this case and included in the attached appendix undermine, and in some instances completely discredit, important components of the central narrative on which the Government’s defense in the D.C. Circuit action was based, and Plaintiffs should be accorded the opportunity to fully apprise the D.C. Circuit of that reality while briefing is still ongoing.

Plaintiffs will not recount here the relevance of every item in the appendix to the issues in dispute in the D.C. Circuit action, but the deposition transcript of former Fannie Mae / Federal National Mortgage Assctn Fnni Me (...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Greece's Stocks Tumble in First Day of Trading After Shutdown (Bloomberg)

Lenders led a record plunge in Greek equities as the Athens Stock Exchange reopened after a five-week shutdown, with restrictions in place due to capital controls.

China and Asia are on shaky ground (Business Insider)

Headwinds for the world's second-biggest economy intensified at the start of the third quarter, with manufacturing conditions in China deteriorating to their worst in two years in July and triggering ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 3rd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Consumption and Yields suggesting lower interest rates ahead!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the yield on the 30-year bond. Yields rallied strongly from the first of February to the first of July (up 30%). This strong rally in yields hit dual resistance at (1) above, which was the 38% retracement level and the bottom of a rising channel, which both came into play as resistance. Once yields hit resistance a month ago, yields have been falling and bond prices moving higher.

Now yields are attempting to break steep rising support at (2) above.

Below is a very cool chart of the Personal Consumption Expenditure index on a year over year basis, shared by ...



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Chart School

Three RTT Indicators

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

readtheticker.com is primarily a Richard Wyckoff logic site, however through our research into Wyckoff logic the three indicators below make us very lazy in applying Richard Wyckoff logic.Why? Because if these indicators look handsome together then it most likely the Wyckoff logic is working very well.

These three indicators are NOT a trading system, but they do help with finding excellent well support accumulated stocks that show Mr Market is supporting them. Of course when indicators look ugly they will show stocks in a breakdown, thus less support by Mr Market.

RTT Steps

If the large market plays are accumulating the stock then they will control the range of BID and ASK and not let th...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



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Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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