Phil- I want to let you know that you really helped me make some money this morning when I probably would have lost on my own. I was stuck in doctors waiting rooms most of the morning starting at 8AM. By following the game plan you laid out and using my smartphone, I went short on oil whenever we got to 61.50 and long at 61 waiting for the spikes ahead of inventory. When 10:30 rolled around I was out after selling longs at 61.60 a few minutes earlier. I went short at 61.75-61.80 and voila, rode it down to 60.60 or so. Thank you.
I've recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn't an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I've substantially increased my performance in the IRA!
Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!
3 for 3! Sold on initial excitement and made a double on USO, 70% on AMZN and 70% on SPY options from Friday.
Thanks and much appreciated for the suggestions.
Hey Phil – I ignored your call to sell those AAPL $580s for $1 so not sure whether to thank you or not (just kidding) for my $5 winner. Actually I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart, that was an uncanny call.
It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.
SPY/Phil, I took a big swing on January 26th following your advice to another member and bought 1615 contracts of Mar 185/190 BCS on SPY that will expire ITM today paying $290,700 on the $500k bet. I thought it might be fun to see what a winning trade looks like. Great call on your part and looking back it seems pretty obvious.
I discovered PSW while reading up on the US economy and how it applies to all the poor folk of the world and to myself as a humble UK desk slave.
This year I put time into learning options trading. I upgraded (with great administrative difficulty!) my stock dealing account to deal options. Now I am an avid reader of PSW and subscribed for voyeur membership. Initially feeling out of my depth struggling to keep up with the peculiar language of options traders, I unsubscribed feeling a little under confident and uncertain if the small stake I have to invest in options could generate enough to justify my PSW subscription. Nevertheless, I've benefited considerably from the member's material. From a small number of initial trades, I've exceeded profit targets enough to consider re-subscribing in some capacity. Thanks for the knowledge and more than anything I appreciate the human angle, the humour and the ecologically sympathetic approach rarely seen in other financial media. Best wishes all - Jon
Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!
Boring trading – Phil/ Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15%. Add the long puts and well over 20%… and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it. Actually doing better than my trading account at this point (Thanks, summer 2013)
Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do the 20% – 40% stuff and do trading as a hobby…
Phil - It is nice being more discipline with my trading. Generally, I am out earlier than most, but my results, overall, are much better than they were when I was trying to squeeze 80 cups of lemonade out of one lemon! On the other side, I am learning the value of rolling and turning losses into non-losses or small gains. I so appreciate the time you have spent with me and others who have benefited greatly from your knowledge. Thank you!
I must give kudos to Phil for changing my way of thinking. I'm a gambler by nature and used to just play the indexes with 3x etf's… well I still do, but the options give far better returns than I ever dreamed of. With these wild swings I've been catching 50-100% winners in days.
Opt, I think the hardest thing is being disciplined enough to trade with you. Atleast now when I see something go in the red I know how much I'm going to loose and that I will profit somewhere else and have enough money left at the end of the day to trade again. Thanks for all your hard work! My stress levels are down 75% and I have even made a small profit in the short time I've been here
Man, what a week: Bought C at 1.40, sold half at 1.59 (relatively big position), another quarter at 3.04 just now. Ran SKF down from 270 with one April put, still holding some 115's expiring in a couple days. I'm going to gamble this position like a champion Friday. Bought FAS at all sorts of levels and started cashing out. Long HOV, stock and some nickel calls for fun - Mocha up your buy-out from 5 to 8 and that's 10,900% return for the May-2.50's . Ha!
Phil - I celebrate today, having reached my goal for the year, trading in sync with your education and guidance, of 1 million in profit. I learned a lot, achieved much, and am profoundly grateful. To be honest, when I set the goal I thought it was daunting, as I have for many years been an investor in equities but did very little with options. Learning and doing has for me been a blast!
I reached my goal by following Phil's strategies - lots of Buy/Writes, covered calls on equities , naked put entries for income production. I did it with 2.5 mil and kept 600,000 in cash in case I got in trouble. I concentrated on stocks (many of my own choosing) that had decent dividends and wrote front month calls against (OTM) which has worked well in this market run. 25% of my gain is in dividends and premium selling, with the balance in appreciation.
Phil, I have to hand it to you. It seemed that you were the only person on the planet that thought stocks falling was still possible. I am glad I listened. About the end of the year I was really beginning to second guess though. Thanks for suggesting taking some profits last Nov. It no longer looks like I missed much.
What a quarter! (AAPL, etc.) "People react; PSW'ers anticipate." Thanks everyone for a vibrant board.
As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges.
Just closed out a July TZA 40/45 call spread today for a 271% gain in less than a month. I would have normally let that run but yesterday Phil commented to another member something to the effect that "you put down a $1 for a $5 upside, now that you are up 250% you have $2.5 in and you are hoping for a double."
Just closed out a USO July $38 put that Phil suggested yesterday for a 49% one day gain.
Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade...
but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys....
and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,
I traded with Phil for approximately three years, and consistently averaged 80% returns yearly... some of which was due to my skills as a trader, but much was a direct result of what I learned as a member of Phil's site.... both from Phil, and the many talented traders that hang out there. Phil... if you are reading along... thanks, again for the approximately $ 3 mil I made tagging along with you.... in order to make you feel good for the work you did... I gave the government 50% of it all, so you made your contribution....
You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.
Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.
BTW Phil, I wanted to relate a conversation I had with my business partner yesterday. I told him that I have been much more relaxed about my investments ever since I joined your site. It's funny how a 15-20% cushion does to your nerves. My returns have increased dramatically and my risk diminished. Many thanks for the guidance and patience. Good thing I am doing better financially as you might have increased my life expectancy as well!
Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"
I love it when a trade really comes together. After 4 DD's and a roll, I cashed out 16 times my initial position in TLT today for a 140% gain. Thank you Phil for the lessons in scaling in, and paying for position.
Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads.
That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc.
Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities.
Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.
Tesla et. al. – I've spent many months getting hammered shorting overvalued Momos, until, finally, I internalized Phil's message. Play small; give yourself plenty of room to double/move up the [lack of value] chain in terms of price. Play short; take [Musk's, eg.] latest bleep and sell the spike for a short time frame, because his tweets always come to naught. I've been coining money doing it, I just watch that premium melt away with scarcely veiled amusement. Swinging for the fences is for suckers [me, for a long time]. Those little gains really add up — $2k per week of evaporated premium and you could actually buy a Tesla by the end of the year!!
Phil- great call in oil this morning! Now that Im no longer studying and am back in the real world I can only check this in the morning, at lunch, and after work. Anyways, you've been killing it on oil ( even more than you usually do) so I made a point to wake up extra early and made .25 off your ‘buy oil if you're brave'recommendation. It's nice to wake up and scalp 100+ bucks before I even start my real job. You lay those golden eggs everyday Phil! I thank you for that!
thank you for the thorough response(s). I joined this group last week to take my education to the next level. the school i am involved with very good at calling out levels but very little live trading and little help in managing a position going against you.
I like the combo of knowing where the major levels are coupled with your approach to getting in. learned a lot this week.
Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!
T – AT&T Inc. – Heavy trading traffic in AT&T put options today indicates at least one strategist is bracing for the price of the underlying stock to potentially slump to fresh 52-week lows during the next couple of months. Shares in AT&T, down more than 13% since late April, are off 0.80% on the session at $33.61 as of 12:15 p.m. in New York trading. The wireless carrier popped up on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this morning after one strategist purchased roughly 20,000 of the Oct $31 puts for a premium of $0.25 apiece. The trade may be an outright bearish bet that shares in AT&T continue to fall in the near term, or could be a hedge to protect a long position in the underlying stock. The puts make money at expiration if shares in the telecommunications company drop 8.5% from the current price of $33.61 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $30.75. The stock last traded below $30.75 in April of 2012.
HCP – HCP, Inc. – Options changing hands on healthcare REIT, HCP, Inc., on Wednesday morning look for shares in the name to rally during the next couple of months. The stock, down more than 20% from an all-time high of $53.06 reached in May, trades 0.80% higher on the session at $40.30 as of 11:40 a.m. ET. Trading traffic in HCP call options indicates some traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to rebound. The most actively traded contracts by volume today are the Oct $45 strike calls, with more than 5,000 call options in play against open interest of 1,902 contracts. It looks like much of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.22 apiece, thus positioning buyers to profit…
ABC - AmerisourceBergen Corp – Shares in AmerisourceBergen are up 2.4% today and nearly 30% year to date, but options in play on the stock suggest one or more traders are bracing for the price of the underlying to potentially pull back during the next couple of months. Shares are currently hovering around $55.00 as of 12:45 p.m. ET, helped higher by an upgrade to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Leerink Swann yesterday. The most actively traded options on ABC are the Aug $50 puts, with upwards of 18,000 contracts traded thus far in the session against open interest of just 160 contracts. Time and sales data suggests much of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.88 each, thus positioning buyers to profit should shares in ABC drop more than 10% from the current level to breach the average breakeven point on the downside at $49.12 by August expiration. Shares in AmerisourceBergen last traded below $49.12 in March.
VNDA - Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – Far out of the money call buying on Vanda Pharmaceuticals today indicates some traders are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains in the near term, with the stock up more than 18% on the session at a new three-year high of $11.94 as of 12:30 p.m. ET. The stock moved up sharply today after hedge fund, Baker Bros. Advisors, LLC, disclosed in a 13G filing a 13.99% stake in the company, roughly double the number of shares held by the fund as of the end of March 2013. Shares in VNDA have rallied approximately 120% since mid-May. Options players betting the price of the underlying has more room to run ahead of June expiration snapped up several hundred calls at the Jun $13 and $14 strikes on Tuesday morning. It looks like traders picked up around 500 calls at the $13 strike for an average premium of $0.65 each, and purchased some 300 lots at the higher $14 strike at an average premium…
DMND - Diamond Foods, Inc. – Bullish options in play on the maker of Pop Secret® popcorn and other packaged consumer food products look for shares in Diamond Foods to rally in the near term. Shares in DMND are up 2.8% at $16.70 as of 12:45 p.m. ET, moving higher ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the closing bell. The stock is off its 2013 high of $17.99 reached back in March, but is still at a more than 20% premium to where the shares closed on December 31st of last year. Despite the recent rally in the stock, shares in the name are still down more than 80% since September of 2011. Traders positioning for shares to rally snapped up Jun $17 strike calls straight out of the gate this morning, picking up around 3,000 contracts for an average premium of $0.65 apiece. Call buyers may profit at expiration should the price of the underlying rise 5.6% over the current price of $16.70 to top the average breakeven point at $17.65.
XLB - Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF – Shares in the XLB are up 0.55% at $40.38 on Monday afternoon, rebounding somewhat after last week touching down to the lowest level since May 2nd. Options changing hands on the Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF early in the session suggest some traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to decline during the next few months. Upwards of 10,000 puts traded at the Sep $40 strike versus open interest of 3,942 contracts this morning, with much of the volume purchased for an average premium of $1.67 each. The largest print was the purchase of a block of 6,000 of the $40 puts at a premium of $1.68 per contract. Put buyers stand ready to profit at September expiration should the price of the underlying fund decline 5.0% from the current level to trade…
DMND - Diamond Foods, Inc. – Call options on Diamond Foods, Inc., are changing hands at a clip this morning, amid a strong rally in the price of the underlying on above-average volume in the stock. Shares in the nut producer increased as much as 12.8% on Monday morning to $16.25, the highest level since mid-November. The stock currently trades up 10% on the session at $15.85 as of 11:55 a.m. ET. Traders positioning for shares in the name to extend gains this week snapped up bullish options on the stock. The Feb. $16 strike calls attracted the heaviest volume, with upwards of 4,100 calls in play versus open interest of 1,063 contracts. Time and sales data suggests the bulk of the $16 calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.23 apiece. Call buyer stand ready to profit at expiration in the event that Diamond’s shares rally another 2.4% over the current price of $15.85 to exceed the average breakeven point at $16.23. The higher Feb. $17 strike calls are also active today, with nearly 700 lots in play against open interest of 15 contracts. Traders paying an average premium of $0.15 apiece for the $17 strike calls profit at expiration this week as long as DMND shares rise 8.2% from the current level to top $17.15.
NVO - Novo Nordisk A/S – Shares in Danish drug maker, Novo Nordisk, are down 13.9% to stand at $165.58 as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Monday morning on concerns the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s request for more data on two of Novo’s products will significantly delay the release of those drugs in U.S. markets. Options on the largest maker of insulin are more active than usual today, with volume topping 1,430 contracts during the first half of the trading session versus average daily options volume of around 225 contracts. Put selling on the stock suggests some traders expect the selling pressure to subside, at least in the near term. Upwards of 230…
DMND - Diamond Foods, Inc. – Shares in Diamond Foods fell more than 11% on Monday morning to an intraday low of $13.12 following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release after the closing bell on Friday. The stock last month slipped to $12.85, the lowest level since the company revealed it must restate two years of earnings, lost its bid to purchase the Pringles brand, and replaced top executives. Options on the maker of Emerald nuts and other consumer food products are far more active than usual today, with some positions looking for shares in the name to slump to fresh lows and others preparing for a near-term rebound in the price of the underlying. The put-to-call volume is hovering around 2-to-1 just after midday in New York, and the bulk of trading traffic is in the weekly contracts. Traders exchanged more than 3,350 of the Dec. 14 ’12 $13.5 strike puts this morning, buying most of the contracts for an average premium of $0.58 apiece. The $13 strike weekly put options attracted heavy volume as well, with some 1,700 lots in play versus zero open positions. Traders buying the $13 strike contracts paid an average premium of $0.34 per contract in the early going, and stand ready to profit at expiration in the event that Diamond’s shares decline 6% from the current price of $13.48, to trade below the breakeven point at $12.66. Meanwhile, fresh interest in the Dec. 14 ’12 $13.5 strike calls today indicates some traders may profit from a near-term pop in the share price. Upwards of 3,900 of the $13.5 strike calls have changed hands as of 12:30 p.m. ET, and it appears much of the volume was purchased for an average premium of $0.40 apiece. Call buyers make money if shares in Diamond Foods settle above the average breakeven price of $13.40 at expiration.
IR - Ingersoll-Rand PLC – Options volume on industrial machinery maker, Ingersoll-Rand, rose well above the stock’s daily average this morning due to heavy trading…
The former Vice-Chairman of Goldman Sachs (Draghi) says everything is fixed and the global markets go flying – what's not to trust? Would anyone form GS ever lie to us? Would GS be involved in manipulating the Global Markets – of course not!
Now that I've fulfilled my obligation to get my mother back unharmed – let's get real. Draghi said the violent spike in bond yields in recent days was hampering "the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channels" – the EXACT expression used to justify each of the ECB's previous market interventions.
Yields on Spanish two-year debt plunged 72 basis points to 5.47% in barely an hour, with comparable moves on Italian debt – easing the pressure before a string of debt auctions in Rome over coming days. The MIB index of stocks in Milan surged by 5.6%. Madrid's IBEX rose 6%, the biggest jump in two years, led by an explosive rise in bank shares. Mr Draghi's comments came as Spain claimed backing from France and Germany for activation of the eurozone's rescue fund (EFSF) to buy Spanish bonds, though this would require calling the Bundestag's finance committee back from holiday for a vote. Action by the EFSF would provide "political cover" for the ECB to join the fray in a two-pronged attack. "We're firing on all cylinders: that is what has ignited the markets," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at Morgan Stanley.
Joint statements from Madrid, Paris and Berlin said market turbulence "does not reflect the fundamentals of the Spanish economy, or the sustainability of its…
It might be a little early because we did get another $267Bn from the Fed yesterday but that plus $125Bn given to Spain and $100Bn to the IMF this month is "just" $492Bn and that, according to our calculations, should be good for 1,350 on the S&P, tops. If they want to get to 1,400 – they'll need another $500Bn from Europe and, while it is widely expected to come – the Fed came up short and if the EU comes up short as well, we could be talking flash crash so we took advantage of the pre-Fed run-up (as planned in yesterday's post) to get back to cash.
I don't know if you guys usually click on my little links but this one was the most important of the day – Don't be white people – GET OUT!!!!
This one was so important that I tweeted it (you can follow me here) and Facebooked it (you can follow us here) and I even put it out on Seeking Alpha's Stock Talks (you can follow me here) so don't say I didn't warn you. Sure the market may go up as funds dress windows into the end of the Quarter/Half next week but we caught the run off the bottom this month so why push it when the upside looks limited and the downside does not?
Other than 2014 spreads in our new Income Portfolio – all of our virtual portfolios went to cash rather than risking very nice first half gains. As of yesterday morning they were:
Much thanks to StJ for keeping these tracking portfolios – all back to cash now and hopefully we can match that performance in the second half of the year although I think we're going to ditch the very boring $5,000 Portfolio in favor of a $25,000 Portfolio…
As you can see from the Big Chart, we are testing the 50 day moving averages on the Dow (12,746), S&P (1,347), Nasdaq (2,920), NYSE (7,756) and the Russell (781) IF all goes well and we move up from here. The Dow is already over and the S&P and Russell are close so we'll be watching them closely this morning to see if we should stay bullish or cash out our winners while we wait for some actual bullish news – because the rumors that are driving us higher so far are running out of steam.
The G20 meeting drags on in day 2 and we await their announcement. China dropped $43Bn into the IMF last night and India, Russia, Brazil and Mexico will also commit $10Bn EACH for another $40Bn and that brings the IMF's war chest up to $456Bn. Even Turkey put up $5Bn – we're talking about an all-out Global effort here so we expect A LOT more from the big guns.
Let's not dwell on what it means that Turkey has to bail out Europe and instead focus on Christine Lagarde's statement that the commitments demonstrate "the broad commitment of the membership to ensure the IMF has access to adequate resources to carry out its mandate in the interests of global financial stability." So now it's up to the G20 and that means it's up to Merkel today and Bernanke tomorrow.
Merkel faces mounting pressure to make even greater concessions, by putting Germany's financial muscle behind an integrated banking and borrowing system to keep the euro intact. The question is whether, after two years of muddling through, Europe's pre- eminent power can act quickly and decisively. "I think she will remain an incrementalist: we have not yet reached the point where it is obvious that we are hanging over the precipice," said Paul de Grauwe, a professor at the London School of Economics. "It looks again that what is going to come out is going to temporarily pacify markets until it is clear that it is not going to be sufficient."
For those of you who don't speak Economics – "not going to be sufficient" = DOOM!!!
All of our global indexes are on quite a tear in anticipation of more bailouts/QE from the G20 this week. If we don't get it – prepare for…
Until the end of day, the volume was low and, as you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, the morning pump was mostly erased by the end of the day. In fact, on the Russell and Nasdaq – it was entirely erased. What a friggin' joke, yet no one will investigate it and few will even question it.
As we often say at PSW – We don't care IF the game is rigged, as long as we know HOW the game is rigged and get to place our bets accordingly. In my Morning Alert to Members at 10:05, my comment on the move up was:
Not too many markets are open so super low-volume means we can pretty much ignore whatever's happening. Some wild gyrations at the open already with AAPL popping $10 to goose the Nas and they are spiking us up and down at will on this low volume.
At 12:02 we made our planned adjustments to our 4 active virtual portfolios, taking advantage of the big, bad spike to move to cheap June bear positions and cash out our long plays and just get generally more aggressively bearish at what we thought was going to be the top for the day. The most aggressive move was made in our most aggressive, $25,000 Portfolio (pictured here from its 10am status BEFORE many changes were made), where we flipped our protective TNA hedge from bullish to very bearish – shifting the balance of the portfolio much more bearish with a single move:
TNA – $60s are now $4 so let's take that and run on 5 (1/2), as that's more than we paid for the spread and we'll ride the $63s half-covered with a stop on 5 at $3 (now $2.25). Also, a stop on the 5 remaining $60s at $3, at which point we would reset the stop on the $63s, of course.
Needless to say, that trade worked out huge already as the $60s all stopped out at a $3.50 average ($3,500), which is $500 more than our max potential gain on the spread and the $63 calls already finished the day at $1.10 ($1,100) for a net of $2,400 (so far) off our $1,450 entry on 4/26 – so up 65% in less than a week on the trade we used to…
Why do we scream at each other
This is what it sounds like When doves cry – Prince
It's no coincidence that this week we will be hearing from Fed Governors Kocherllakota (1pm Tues), Hoenig (12:30 Weds), Plosser (1:30 Weds), and Bullard (9:15 Thurs) ahead of our 2-Year Note Auction (1pm Tues), 5-Year Note Auction (1pm Weds) and 7-Year Note Auction (1pm Thursday) as the Fed needs to bring out 4 of it's 5 most hawkish members to talk up the Dollar (by talking down QE3) to keep those rates paid as low as possible for Treasury.
Once the Hawks drive the rates down and the notes are sold, the Doves will once again be released to talk them back up by extolling the glories of QE3 – completely reversing whatever was said before just as the Hawks will once again be called upon to reverse what the Doves say at a later date – when they need rates to come back down. The joke of it all is that traders will react to each statement, every time, as if it's a "game changer" and adjust their positions to reflect the new reality of the moment. It reminds me of a quote from Orwell's 1984:
As soon as all the corrections which happened to be necessary in any particular number of The Times had been assembled and collated, that number would be reprinted, the original copy destroyed, and the corrected copy placed on the files in its stead. This process of continuous alteration was applied not only to newspapers, but to books, periodicals, pamphlets, posters, leaflets, films, sound-tracks, cartoons, photographs – to every kind of literature or documentation which might conceivably hold any political or ideological significance.
Day by day and almost minute by minute the past was brought up to date. In this way every prediction made by the Party could be shown by documentary evidence to have been correct, nor was any item of news,
By Rupert Hargreaves. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Warren Buffett has attributed his impressive investment returns over the years to his preference for a highly concentrated portfolio. The degree to which a portfolio should be diversified is a topic that splits opinions, with no standard answer. It seems Anabatic Investment Partners has decided that a highly concentrated portfolio is the best way to achieve returns for its investors with only 12 investments in 11 different companies within its portfolio.
This approach has produced impressive results for the firm. Anabatic Fund, L.P. returned +26.3% net of fees in 2016, gaining 5.19% in December alone. At the end of the year, cash was 24% of assets, according to the hedge fund’s 2016 letter to investors.
The recent drop in oil prices, which has almost wiped out the price gains since OPEC announced its supply-cut deal, is coming just ahead of the spring season when banks are reassessing the credit lines they are extending to support drillers’ growth plans.
WTI front-month futures have been trading below $50 a barrel for a couple of weeks, while Brent crude slipped briefly ...
The S&P 500, Banks, Small Caps and Transportation indices continue to climb higher, as the long-term trend remains up. The two charts below, look at performance over the past month and how each index is testing long-term breakout levels.
The chart below looks at how the above mentioned indices have performed over the past 30-days.
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
These key markets are a little soft the past 30-days. The Power of the Pattern below looks at where this softness is taking pl...
Economists are crowing over a huge and unexpected spike in pending home sales. The Econoday consensus estimate was a rebound of 2.4% following the 2.8% decline in January. Instead, the index spiked 5.5%.
Major improvement can be expected for existing home sales in the March to April period based on February’s pending home sales index which jumped 5.5 percent to 112.3. This is well beyond the Econoday consensus which was already calling for a sizable 2.4 percent gain. This index tracks initial contract signings and though winter months are always volatile due to seasonality and...
You are thinking about selling your home. A similar place nearby sells for more than you thought it would. You list your home. This is how the housing market is supposed to work. As a result, over time, pric...
Bulls were able to deliver across the board gains, helping to position yesterday's action as a swing low. Weakness at this point would offer itself as a buying opportunity, but markets wouldn't tolerate more than a couple of days of losses if they were to go down this route.
The S&P is at resistance of the prior swing low and the 20-day MA, but today's action is looking good for an upside break tomorrow? Technicals are firmly in the red and need more than today's gain to fix them.
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.
A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.
As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...
ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.
As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...
Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.
In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.
This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.
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