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Testy Tuesday - Have the Markets Become Comfortably Numb?

"There is no pain you are receding
A distant ship’s smoke on the horizon.
You are only coming through in waves.
Your lips move but I can’t hear what you’re saying.
When I was a child
I caught a fleeting glimpse
Out of the corner of my eye.
I turned to look but it was gone
I cannot put my finger on it now
The child is grown,
The dream is gone.
but I have become comfortably numb
." - Pink Floyd
 

I have a theory that the markets (and the American people in general) aren’t irrational, they are simply shell-shocked after suffering a very traumatic group financial experience… 

To be shell-shocked is to be "mentally confused, upset, or exhausted as a result of excessive stress" and the most common symptoms are: Fatigue, slower reaction times, indecision, disconnection from one’s surroundings, and inability to prioritize - That certainly sounds like our Congress doesn’t it?  Combat stress disorder was first diagnosed in WWI, when 10% of the troops were killed and 56% wounded - far worse than had been experienced in previous wars.  Our current financial crisis has similarly affected more people than any previous crisis with almost everyone knowing someone who is bankrupt or lost their jobs or homes and almost no one escaped the carnage of the downturn without some financial damage. 

Combat fatigue may go a long way to explaining the severe drop-off in volume that has plagued the markets since March, with participation now down to 25% of where we were last January and that leaves us open to the blatant sort of market manipulation that Karl Denninger caught last week as well as the usual nonsense we get daily from HFT programs that drive the market with such precision that we are able to tell how the day is going to go by simply checking our hourly volume targets.  Here’s a clip from CNBC where a floor trader discusses market manipulation as a fact of trading (2 mins in).  

As Nicholas Santiago points out on In The Money Stocks,   "January is usually a very high volume month, yet it has started off the New Year even lighter than the last two months of 2009.  Light volume markets are very difficult to short. Hence the old saying, ‘never short a dull market’."  Not only is the market volume light, but over 60% of the trading volume is concentrated on 5 stocks:  AIG, C, BAC, FNM and FRE!

We have often noted that high-volume (relatively) days almost always tend to be down days and PSW Members can tell you how the…
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Bears Bombard Wells Fargo with Pessimistic Option Plays

Today’s tickers: WFC, GS, EWZ, EK, CHRW, BIDU, CBY, ACOR, INTC, EK & EAT

WFC – Wells Fargo & Co. – Bearish traders lumbered around Wells Fargo today purging calls and feasting on out-of-the-money put options. Pessimistic positions were initiated during the trading session despite the 1.5% move up in shares of the underlying to $29.02. Investors piled into put options at the February $23 strike where roughly 23,000 contracts were purchased for an average premium of $0.13 apiece. Perhaps put buyers are merely securing cheap downside protection in case WFC’s shares fall off the proverbial cliff by expiration next month. Traders may be expecting a pull back in shares of the financial firm. If the puts were purchased as an outright bearish bet on the stock, investors long the contracts could turn profits by selling the puts before expiration next month if premium levels on the lots appreciate above $0.13. Medium-term pessimism was apparent in the April contract where traders shed 4,700 calls at the April $32 strike for an average premium of $0.66 each. Additional bearishness took place at the April $28 strike as investors picked up roughly 5,600 puts for $1.55 apiece. Pessimistic trading patterns suggest a bumpy start to the new year for Wells Fargo.

GS – Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – Bullish activity in the February contract on investment banking firm, Goldman Sachs, suggests shares are poised to pop up in the next few weeks. Shares appreciated slightly during today’s session, rising 0.10% to $169.22 ahead of the closing bell. One optimistic options strategist purchased a debit spread to position for bullish movement in the price of the underlying. The trader bought 10,000 calls at the February $180 strike for a premium of $2.25 apiece, spread against the sale of 10,000 calls at the higher February $185 strike for $1.30 each. The investor shelled out a net $0.95 per contract on the trade. Goldman’s shares must gain approximately 7% from the current price in order for the call-spreader to breakeven at $180.95. Maximum potential profits of $4.05 per contract amass for the trader if GS shares jump 9.3% to $185 by expiration day in February.

EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – Shares of the EWZ, which corresponds to the performance of publicly traded securities in the Brazilian market, edged 1.75% lower during the trading day to stand at $74.53. Bearish option traders made aggressive moves on the stock using…
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Phil's Favorites

FINRA Story

Larry Doyle's been reporting on the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) over the past year and a half. His efforts are beginning to pay off. Recently, investigators from the government watchdog unit, the Project on Government Oversight, referenced Larry's work in a letter sent to banking, finance, and oversight sub-committees up on the Hill regarding FINRA. Here's three important posts by Larry that help tell the FINRA story. - Ilene 

Barron’s Highlights FINRA’s Stench  ...

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Zero Hedge

Summarizing Today's Fed Chairman Q&A: Prepare To Vastly Exceed Your Recommended Daily Allowance Of Bernanke's Prevarications

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Going through today's pertinent Q&A with Bernanke, initially we focus on Fed nemesis #1, Ron Paul. First question of relevance: "Do you Mr. Bernanke think that rates were hold too low for too long?" The degree of Fed delusion is easily seen by the response: "the bottom line is nobody really knows for sure, but the evidence is quite mixed." Obviously the bald one has never attempted to sell a home in the Inland Empire. The evidence sure would be a little less mixed in that case. But at least Bubble Ben has given a speech on it (which incidentally caused John Taylor to almost have a conniption against the stupidity of the Fed's chairman). Yet just in case you thought the man may have at least one screw unloose in his voluminous cranial hollow, Bernanke opens his mouth and says "Even if rates were too low for too long, the magnitude of the error was not big enough to account for ...



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Chart School

Bubble-nomics: SP and Nasdaq Straining at Resistance And the Remnants of Fear

Bubble-nomics: SP and Nasdaq Straining at Resistance And the Remnants of Fear

Courtesy of JESSE'S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

The SP is trying to break out of the trend and hold it's gains. I would not get in front of this, unless you wish to guarantee an opportunity for an additional short squeeze. Remember, the wiseguys can peek into your collective hand at will, and read your strategy within milliseconds of your executing it. That is why playing short term trends is becoming increasingly difficult for the individual speculator. more from Chart School

Trading Goddess

Pivotfarm Support and Resistance Levels 18th March 2010



Pivotfarm.com provides Support & Resistance, Fibonacci, Volume Analysis, Market Profile, Moving Average and Pivot Information for day traders. These data sheets are designed to help day traders gain an edge in the market, providing all the most important information a trader needs in one clear and concise data sheet.

Today's levels can be found by clicking here




You can now have the Support and Resistance levels emailed to you via our Newsletter every morning please sign up at pivotfarm.com

All information on this website is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advise. Any sta...



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Oxen Group Trades

Overnight Trade: This One is in the Bag!

I love my clever title for this post. Today, we are going back into the retail sector again to look to make some money. Yesterday, retail was good to us with a pick up of Rue21 Inc. (



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The Options Report

By Andrew Wilkinson


UnitedHealth Bulls Have a Fever – the Only Prescription is More Call Options

Today’s tickers: UNH, BZH, WFC, GE, XLB, WMT, BAC, COF, HOG, ETFC & STJ

UNH - UnitedHealth Group, Inc. – Health and well-being company, UnitedHealth Group, commenced the trading session in the red after Goldman Sachs Group removed the firm from its ‘Conviction Buy List’. However, UNH is still rated as a ‘buy’ at Goldman, and the company’s shares recovered this afternoon to stand 0.60% higher at $32.73. A fire-storm of bullish activity descended on UnitedHealth during the middle of the trading day. Investors gobbled up April contract call options perhaps to position for continued bullish movement in the price of the underlying shares. Options players purchased 42,600 call options at the April $34 strike for an average ...



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Insider Zone


Insiders: March to Exit

By Ilene

Let's take a look at Insider Buying and Selling over the last week or so. These are screen shots from Finviz - the significant buys against a green background first and significant sells against the pink background second.  All the buys fit into my screen shot but the sells did not.  Click here to see all the sells.  

Note that the largest buy in the group, for KITD was at a price of 9.73 (KITD is currently at 11.54). The buy was part of an Equity Offering rather than an open market purchase. Tuzman Kaleil Isaza's (KITD's Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer) history of buys is http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

OpTrader


Swing trading portfolio - week of March 15th 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader

...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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