Posts Tagged ‘EBAY’

Testy Tuesday – Dressing the Windows at our Bounce Lines

First, the big news:

EBAY has finally agreed to spin off PayPal and that's going to give us a nice boost in our Income Portfolio (which we fortunately just adjusted more aggressive yesterday) and EBAY has been on our Buy List (Members Only) since 5/20, when they were testing $50 and, as I said to our Members when I predicted an earnings beat in July:

Paypal, Paypal and Paypal.  They should beat the .68 expectations (.63 last year) and all of last year they traded in the $50s, so why should they be below it now when they are making $3 a year (p/e 16.7)?  Compared to the rest of the market, this thing is a real bargain!  

They beat by a penny and, as you can see from the chart, that was enough to kick them up 10% and we recently got a nice re-entry at $50, when we took advantage of the spike down to sell more 2016 $50 puts for $5.50 which were up 15% at $4.80 at yesterday's close – not bad for a month's work and they should be up 30% by the end of today!  

Today we will see an all-out effort to keep the markets afloat so the books on Q3 can be spun positive by the Banksters, who have Trillions of Dollars riding on the outcome.  

Of course, we KNOW that no Bankster would ever attempt to manipulate the Market, or LIBOR, or Currencies, or Ratings…  Well, not if they knew for a fact they would get caught AND the punishment was more than a slap on the wrist, anyway.  Thank goodness, that never happens.

As you can see from our Big Chart, the S&P came to a rest right on the 50 dma at 1,977 so that's the do or die line for the day while it's 4,495 on the Nasdaq.  On the Dow we want to see 17,100 taken back and the NYSE needs to hold 10,750 while the poor, beleagured Russell just needs to hold that 1,110 line.  Officially, our bounce lines remain:

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Friday Futures Fakery – Do you REALLY think a downed airline doesn’t matter?

Can we possibly be this jaded? 

Even on Wall Street, where ruining the lives of the middle class is a sporting event, you would think that the tragic death of 298 people being shot down in an airplane would AT LEAST cause the markets to pause for more than a few hours.  That's not what the Futures would have you believe – they are moving up this morning (7:30) as if shooting planes out of the sky isn't a reason not to trade stocks at their all-time highs

While our long trade ideas from yesterday's morning post worked out fantastically, we were very fortunately NOT GREEDY at 10:03, when I said to our Members:

Philly Fed up huge (like NY), 23.9 vs 10 expected though 17.8 last month means they were just being too pessimistic.  That should give us a nice pop but I'd take those Futures profits off this run!  

SPY 5 MINUTEAs you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, our timing was near perfect as things turned sour very quickly.  That then worked out well for our oil shorts, which went from the $103 conviction target I laid out in the morning post (subscribe here to get them pre-market every day) back below $102, where I said to our Members at 11:34:

There goes $102 on oil!  Congrats to the players!  That's the new stop line, of course. 

That was a very quick $1,000 PER CONTRACT profit on /CL and, right after that, we got the plane crash news so we increased our hedges in our Short-Term Portfolio and we added BA July $128 puts at $1.25 (because it was a BA plane involved in the incident) and they finished the day at $2.18 (up 74%) as well as DAL Aug $37 puts at $1.50, which were already $1.92 by the day's end (up 28%).  I don't like to take advantage of tragedies like that – but it was the fastest way to add good protection to our portfolios.  

YUM had a bit of a tragedy yesterday and the net
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$29 Trillion Tuesday – Central Banksters Gone Wild!

Fake it 'till you make it.  

While it was Aristotle who said that "acting virtuous will make one virtuous" (and clearly Aristotle hasn't been to the same charity events/wealth orgies that I have, or he never would have said it), it is our modern Central Banking system that decrees that "acting like the economy is better will make the economy better."  

Now, perhaps if they had spent $29,000,000,000,000 by giving 7Bn people $4,142.85 each – we WOULD have a better economy now – but that's not what happened at all, is it?  Instead, 70,000 people and corporations (the top 0.0001%) got an average of $414M each while the other 99.9999% of us, especially the bottom 90% actually are now worse off than when the Central Banksters decided to meddle in our affairs in the first place.  

The rich are indeed getting stunningly richer with the Forbes 400 (richest Americans) AVERAGING $800M gains in 2013 as the stock market (where most of their money is) rose over 30%.  Again – AVERAGE gains of $800M per Billionaire!  Once you get past #50 on the list (Google's Eric Schmidt with $8.3Bn), that's AT LEAST 10% of their total net worth added in a single year!

 As I said in our recent trade review "Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another", if they are just going to keep giving away money like this – we're going to just have to keep taking it (through our many bullish trade ideas) but, at some point, the music will stop and you'd BETTER be able to find a chair fast!  

There's a very good reason the Corporate Media is constantly telling you how bad "class warfare" would be - BECAUSE THEY ARE ALREADY WINNING THE WAR AND YOU ARE NOT EVEN FIGHTING!!!

Like any good game of musical chairs, we have no idea when the music is going to stop, so we all have to keep dancing around like nothing is wrong until it does.  As I pointed out yesterday, it's very easy to pay $150Bn for Amazon (at $327 per share) with money you just printed because…
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The Buy List – 20 Great Trade Ideas for the Rest of 2014 (Members Only)

INDU WEEKLYWhat a rally!  

While stocks certainly aren't "cheap" by any measure, we've been able to identify 20 that are still good values.  We've been compiling this list and going over trade ideas for playing them in our Tuesday Webinars since May 13th and, of course, we've been posting them in our Live Member Chat rooms, so this is just a review to consolidate our trade ideas.  

We cashed in our Long-Term Portfolio last week at what we thought was a top but so far – so wrong on that call!  Since it's up 19% in just 6 months, we're not going to cry about missing the last 400-point move on the Dow (2.5%) – we'll just have to look ahead to deploying our cash again, following the same strategy that was so successful in the first half of the year, which was, essetially, our "7 Steps to Consistently Making 20-40% Annual Returns" system:

As we did in building our Long-Term Portfolio, we're not going to rush in and buy everything.  We will do exactly what we did in January where, following our Fall Buy List, we simply added stocks from our list whenever they became cheap.  While our Members are able to pick up our trade ideas as they are released, we don't always add them to our virtual portfolios right away.  As with the first half's Long-Term Portfolio, we will track every entry and exit in both our Live Weekly Webcasts, as well as in our Live Member Chat Room and alerts will be sent to our subscribers (you can join here, Basic and Premium Members get full access).  

Our picks were originally grouped by industry sectors but, for reference purposes, I'm going to list them alphabetically below – these are the original trade ideas (the Webinar dates where we discussed our picks are next to the symbol), most are still playable but some have already taken off :

ABX (5/28) we featured in our June 3rd post - obviously one I like.  If you don't want to buy the stock for $15.90 (and we NEVER pay retail at PSW!), then you can sell the 2016 $15 puts for $2.05,
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Thrilling Thursday – Dow Hits Record Highs on Lower Earnings!

Why should we worry?

The Dow is at 16,580 so all must be well, right?  The fact that we're up here on low volume and even lower earnings is just one of those nit-picky things that won't matter a year from now, when TA people use the movement to draw new, bullish trend lines.

That's what the Fed is controlling, they are painting charts in broad strokes to keep things moving along – even when they aren't.  

Sure the US economy is only growing at a 0.1% annual pace and sure that's down shockingly from 2.6% last quarter but, hey, we EXPECTED to only grow at 1% – so it's ONLY a 90% miss – what, us worry?

The Fed says it's just bad weather slowing us down and, whether or not you believe that, they also promise to continue to stimulate the economy long after it is necessary.  The Fed is like Santa Claus, only they don't have to put in any effort to make their toys, so Christmas comes 365 days a year for the top 0.01%.  For the bottom 99.99% – well, it's 0.1% growth on the "trickle down" effect.  

4-30-2014 6-22-17 PM Corp CashIn fact, if you take out the Banksters, who are piling up the Fed's free money in their vaults and using it to manipulate the stock and commodity markets (and higher costs for Energy, Food and Health Care were the only reason our GDP wasn't -1% instead of +0.1%), then you can see that those companies not protected by the Fed are in big trouble

Not since 1999 has there been less cash relative to debt in Corporate America.  Yes, money is cheap, so why not borrow some but that money isn't being used to invest in plants, equipment or, God forbid, hiring and training more people – it's being used to buy back stock and pay out dividends to give the ILLUSION that earnings are improving, when it's actually only the share count that's being reduced.  

As you can see from this chart of the S&P, earnings are up just 25% from where they were in 2009, when the market…
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Tesla Options Volume Pops As Shares Dip After Earnings

TSLA – Tesla Motors Inc. – Options volume on electric car maker Tesla Motors is well above average today, with shares in the high-flying stock off more than 14% at present to stand at $151.35, the lowest level since August 22nd. Shares in the automaker dropped after the company reported Model S deliveries for the third quarter that were less than some analysts expected. Volume in TSLA options is approaching 295,000 contracts as of midday in New York trading, which is well above the stock’s average daily options volume of around 151,000 contracts. Roughly equal numbers of call and put options are changing hands on the stock, and much of the volume is concentrated in options expiring at the end of this week and next week.

EBAY – eBay, Inc. – Heavy trading in weekly call options on eBay near the start of the session pushed the stock onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this morning. EBAY shares are up 4.5% on the day at $53.38 as of 10:30 a.m. EST.

Traders appear to be piling into Nov 08 ’13 expiry calls on the stock, perhaps preparing for the price of the underlying to extend gains ahead of the weekend. The Nov 08 ’13 $51.5, $52, $52.5 and $53 strike weekly call options are seeing the most volume at present. Most of the early trading in these contracts appears to have been initiated by buyers. Traders who bought the call options near the open are enjoying sizable intraday gains in the value of their positions as shares in the name continue to push to the upside.

Notably, traders paid an average premium of $0.61 per contract to buy roughly 2,900 of the Nov 08 ’13 $52 strike calls during the first 15 minutes of the session. These calls are now changing hands at $1.52 each as of 10:25 a.m. EST. Similarly, traders paid an average premium of $0.38 apiece for around 1,700 of the Nov 08 ’13 $52.5 strike calls, which now tout an asking price of $1.20 per contract. Finally, approximately 2,000 of the Nov 08 ’13 $53 strike calls appear to have been purchased in the early going for an average premium of $0.25 each. Premium required to buy the $53 calls now has roughly quadrupled to $1.00 just before 10:30 a.m. in New York trading. 


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BlackBerry Options Draw A Crowd As Shares Rise

Today’s tickers: BBRY, OSIR & EBAY

BBRY - BlackBerry Ltd. – Shares in BlackBerry are moving higher on Tuesday, extending Monday’s rally after the smartphone maker yesterday said it would explore strategic options, including a possible sale of the company. The stock popped nearly 13% to $12.18 in the early going, the highest level in six weeks. Options traders positioning for the price of the underlying to continue to climb snapped up weekly call options on BBRY straight out of the gate this morning. Trading traffic in the Aug 23 ’13 $9.5 and $12 strike calls suggests one strategist may be rolling up a bullish stance on BBRY, selling roughly 2,000 of the $9.5 calls for an average premium of $1.59 each, and buying roughly the same number of $12 calls at an average premium of $0.23 apiece within the first 20 minutes of the opening bell. Meanwhile, it looks like traders purchased more than 2,600 calls at the Aug 23 ’13 $11.5 strike for an average premium of $0.56 apiece, and around 400 calls at the Aug 23 ’13 $12 strike at a premium of $0.25 each. Buyers of the $12 calls stand ready to profit by expiration next week should shares in BlackBerry rally 3.8% over the current price of $11.80 to exceed the average breakeven price of $12.25. Not all of the trading traffic in BlackBerry options today looks for the price of the underlying to extend gains. Buyers of more than 3,200 of the Aug 23 ’13 $11 strike put options at an average premium of $0.43 per contract this morning are positioned to make money in the event that the smartphone maker’s shares drop 11% from the current price to settle below the breakeven point on the downside at $10.57 at expiration. Upwards of 204,000 options contracts have changed hands on BBRY as of 11:20 a.m. ET versus the stock’s average daily volume of around 75,000 contracts.

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Best Buy Bulls Bulk Up On Weekly Calls As Stock Hits Highest Since July ’11

Today’s tickers: BBY, GMCR & EBAY

BBY - Best Buy, Inc. – Shares in Best Buy are soaring on Monday, up as much as 7.7% during morning trading to hit $29.44, the highest level since July of 2011, after the stock was resumed at ‘Outperform’ with an increased target price of $40.00 from $32.00 at Credit Suisse today. Trading traffic in weekly options on the consumer electronics retailer suggest some strategists are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains during the shortened U.S. trading week. The most actively traded weekly contracts by volume this morning are the Jul 05 ’13 $29 strike calls, with upwards of 1,300 lots in play versus open interest of 75 contracts. Bullish traders appear to have purchased most of the contracts for an average premium of $0.37 apiece and may profit at expiration should Best Buy’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $29.37. Upside calls at the Jul 19 ’13 $30 strike are also active today, with around 630 lots purchased during morning trading at an average premium of $0.54 each. The contracts make money if shares in Best Buy rise another 3.7% to top $30.54 during the next few weeks to expiration. Shares in BBY are up more than 140% since the start of 2013.

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc. – A sizable trade in January 2014 expiry put options on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters initiated within the first 40 minutes of the opening bell this morning suggests one trader may be bracing for a pullback in shares of the coffee producer, with the stock up more than 250% since this time last year. Shares in GMCR today are up 3.3% at $77.72 as of 12:25 p.m. in New York. It looks like one trader purchased 5,000 puts at the Jan 2014 $60 striking price for a premium of $5.35 per contract. The position starts making money in the event that shares in Green Mountain plunge 30% from the current price of $77.72 to breach the effective breakeven…
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EBay Bulls Dabble In Weekly Calls As Shares Extend Rally

 

Today’s tickers: EBAY, TXN & THC

EBAY - eBay, Inc. – Shares in the operator of online marketplaces kicked off the trading week in rally mode, rising more than 4.5% to $56.75 on Monday morning after the company’s 2015 forecasts at an investor day conference last week spurred a number of analyst upgrades and price target increases. The stock has gained more than 10% during the past two weeks. Short-dated bullish bets initiated on EBAY ahead of the long weekend are paying off for some options traders today. Open interest in the April 05 ’13 $55 strike weekly calls rose by more than 3,000 contracts on Thursday, with much of the volume purchased at an average premium of $0.045 apiece. Today the $55 strike calls are deep in-the-money and changing hands at roughly $1.60 each as of midday in New York. Traders who paid an average premium of $0.45 per contract last Thursday roughly tripled their money over the weekend. Meanwhile, trading traffic in weekly contracts this morning suggests options players are positioning for shares in the provider of online payment services to extend gains in the near term. Bullish traders snapped up more than 1,000 in-the-money calls at the April 05 ’13 $55 strike for an average premium of $1.70 each this morning, and picked up more than 1,000 calls at the higher April 05 ’13 $57.5 strike at an average premium of $0.36 apiece. Traders long the $57.5 strike call options may profit at expiration in the event that shares in eBay rally another 2.0% to top a new 52-week high and breakeven price of $57.86.

TXN - Texas Instruments, Inc. – A burst of put buying on semiconductor maker, Texas Instruments, on Monday morning suggests one or more traders are preparing for the price of the underlying to pullback in the near term. Shares in TXN are down 0.90% today at $35.16 as of 12:00 p.m. ET. The most actively traded contracts on Texas Instruments today are the April $35 strike puts, with volume in…
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Traders Nibble On Kellogg Put Options As Shares Hover Near Record Highs

 

Today’s tickers: K, GBX & EBAY

K - Kellogg Co. – Shares in consumer food products company, Kellogg, are roughly flat on the session, down less than 0.10% at $64.54 as of 11:30 a.m. ET. Options activity on the stock this morning suggests one strategist is bracing for the price of the underlying to pullback a bit during the next few weeks. Shares in the maker of Froot Loops and Frosted Mini-Wheats, up roughly 25% since this time last year, hit a record high of $64.75 yesterday. Overall options volume in excess of 2,400 contracts in play on Kellogg this morning is more than two times the stock’s average daily volume, with the put-to-call ratio topping 5-to-1 as of the time of this writing. Most of the trading traffic in Kellogg options is in the front month puts, with upwards of 1,700 lots changing hands at the April $62.5 strike versus open interest of 519 contracts. It looks like most of the $62.5 strike calls were purchased in the early going at an average premium of $0.20 apiece. Traders long the contracts may profit at expiration next month if shares in Kellogg decline more than 3.0% from the current price of $64.54 to breach the effective breakeven point at $62.30.

GBX - Greenbrier Companies, Inc. – Options on the manufacturer of railroad freight car equipment and ocean-going marine barges are more active than usual this morning after the company announced yesterday it received new orders for 5,400 railcar units values at around $575 million in January, February and March. Shares in the name rallied more than 7.5% on Thursday morning to touch a new 52-week high of $22.98. Traders looking for shares in Greenbrier to extend gains in the near term snapped up front month calls. The April $25 strike calls attracted the most volume, with upwards of 420 lots in play against open interest of 47 contracts. It looks like most of the calls were purchased during the first 15 minutes of the session at a premium…
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Zero Hedge

Norway Wealth Fund Assets Surge To Over $1 Trillion On Massive 70% Allocation To Equities

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Last December we joked that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund had responded to sinking returns and withdrawals required to fund budget deficits by allocating another $130 billion in assets to what appeared to be an already massively overpriced equity bubble in return for an extra 40bps of "expected average annual real returns." (see: Norway Buying $130 Billion In Global Equities As Sovereign...



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Phil's Favorites

In Wake of Slumping Car Sales, Ford Will Idle 5 North American Plants: What? No Hurricane Bounce?

Courtesy of Mish.

As initially reported by the Census Department, motor vehicle sales were 1.2% in July following a 0.9% gain in June. At the time, I commented, “This is unbelievably bizarre in the face of actual auto sales reports.”

The Census Bureau revised sales estimates much lower in September as noted in Retail Sales Unexpectedly Decline, Huge Negative Revisions in June and July: Reflections on “Bizarre” Sales Reports.

Today we learn ...



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Digital Currencies

Cryptocurrency Concentration - Just 4% Own Over 95% Of Bitcoin

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Bitcoin has been making a lot of news lately. The cryptocurrency shot up in value by over 200% in 2017, making many people fear that the market is in a bubble. Last week, China...



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Chart School

Minor Changes: Yesterday's and Weekend Comments Remain Valid

Courtesy of Declan.

I don't want to overplay today's action as little changed in the broader scheme of things. Days like today are welcomed and help shape up swing trades for those trading in near term timeframes.

The tight doji in the S&P could be used for a swing trade; buy a break of the high/short loss of low - stop on flip side. High whipsaw risk but look for 3:1 risk:reward and maybe trail stops if deciding to go with partial profits.


Tech averages are still set up for a breakout. While not an ...

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ValueWalk

FBN Beats CNBC Even During Delivering Alpha Week

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fox Business Network ratings for the week of September 11th – September  15th.  FBN beat CNBC even during their big annual Delivering Alpha Conference which is one of the biggest investment conferences of the year with Lou Dobbs leading the pack – another big win for FBN – see more details below

FOX BUSINESS NETWORK SWEEPS CNBC IN BUSINESS DAY FOR EIGHTH TIME THIS YEAR

]]> Get The Full Ray Dalio Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Ray Dalio in PDF. Save it to your de...



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Insider Scoop

Considering Implications For Hasbro And Mattel From The Toys 'R' Us Bankruptcy

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related HAS Toy Stocks Mostly Lower After Toys 'R' Us Confirms Bankruptcy Watch These 8 Huge Put Purchases In Tuesday Trade ...

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Members' Corner

"Citron Exposes Ubiquiti Networks"

What do you think?

"CITRON EXPOSES UBIQUITI NETWORKS" 

Does Ubiquiti Networks (NASDAQ:UBNT) actually have real products that sell to consumers? Of course! So did Valeant and WorldCom, but that does not stop its financials from having every indication of being completely fraudulent.

Citron will detail a series of alarming red flags and detail how Ubiquiti Networks is deceiving the investing public.

Read the full report here.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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