Option Players Construct Conflicting Strategies on EBAY
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 5th, 2010 4:09 pm
Today’s tickers: EBAY, RCL, RAI, VLO, VRSN, USU, JAS, NUAN, TIVO & DNR
EBAY - eBay, Inc. – Two different options strategies employed on online auction-house, eBay, Inc., today indicate conflicting medium-term sentiment on the stock. One trader is positioning for a significant rally in the price of the underlying, while another individual anticipates shares will remain range-bound through July expiration. EBAY’s shares increased 3.35% during the current session to stand at $24.58. The uber-bullish stance taken on the stock involved the purchase of 10,000 call options at the July $30 strike for a premium of $0.22 per contract. The investor holding the calls stands ready to amass profits should shares of the underlying stock surge 22.95% from the current price to surpass the effective breakeven point on the calls at $30.22 by expiration in five months time. In contrast, the other options player initiated a sold strangle, which yields maximum benefits only if shares trade within a specified range through expiration. The investor sold 3,500 calls at the July $26 strike for a premium of $1.10 apiece in combination with the sale of the same number of puts at the lower July $21 strike for a premium of $0.58 each. Gross premium enjoyed on the trade amounts to $1.68 per contract. The investor keeps the full amount of premium if shares trade between $21.00 and $26.00 through expiration. However, losses accrue on the position if EBAY’s shares trade above the upper breakeven point at $27.68, or if shares slip beneath the lower breakeven price of $19.32 by expiration day. If the call-buying optimist ends up accurately predicting EBAY’s future share movements, the strangle seller will lose out big time. But, if shares do remain range-bound, the call-buyer only ever risks losing $0.22 per contract, or the price paid to take ownership of the call contracts.
RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. – The cruise operator received an upgrade to ‘neutral’ from ‘sell’ with a target share price of $27.00 at Goldman Sachs Group yesterday, and today nearly reached the target price amid a 2.60% rally in the price of the underlying shares to $29.70. Option trading in the June contract today is likely the work of a bullish trader investing in married put options. It appears the investor purchased shares of the underlying stock for about $29.36 apiece in conjunction with the purchase of approximately 39,000 puts at the June $25 strike for…
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Long-Term Bullish Spread Unfolds On IBM
by Andrew Wilkinson - January 25th, 2010 4:39 pm
Today’s tickers: IBM, XLF, TXN, XLF, CTXS, EBAY, HAL & FITB
IBM – International Business Machines Corp. – A long-term bullish transaction on IBM suggests one investor is positioning for a significant boost in share price at the computer services firm by expiration in January 2011. IBM’s shares are trading 0.75% higher this afternoon to $126.47. The optimistic trader purchased a ratio call spread on the stock, buying 5,000 calls at the January 2011 $135 strike for an average premium of $6.24 apiece, and selling 10,000 calls at the higher January 2011 $150 strike for a premium of $2.33 each. The net cost of the ratio spread amounts to just $1.58 per contract. Thus, the trader accrues profits if IBM’s shares rally 8% over the current price to surpass the breakeven point at $136.58 by expiration next year. Maximum available profits of $13.42 per contract amass only if shares surge 18.60% to $150.00. IBM’s shares must increase to a new 52-week high in order for the investor to break even on the transaction. The current 52-week high on the stock is $134.25, attained back on January 19, 2010.
XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR – Option traders continue to initiate bearish strategies on the financial ETF today despite the 0.90% rebound in shares of the underlying to $14.31. Earlier we reported a June $14/$10 ratio put spread, which established downside protection beneath a breakeven share price of $13.30. This afternoon we observed a similar transaction take place. Another pessimistic investor purchased an even larger ratio put spread in the June contract. It looks like this individual bought 27,500 puts at the now in-the-money June $15 strike for an average premium of $1.52 apiece, spread against the sale of 55,000 puts at the lower June $12 strike for about $0.39 each. The net cost of the ratio transaction amounts to $0.74 per contract, and provides downside protection beneath a breakeven share price of $14.26.
TXN – Texas Instruments, Inc. – Chipmaker, Texas Instruments, is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results after the closing bell this afternoon, and although analysts expect the firm to post profits of $0.49 per share on a 19% increase in sales, option traders initiated near-term protective plays. Shares of the semiconductor company are up 1.80% to $23.52 ahead of earnings. One investor established a bearish risk reversal by selling 5,000 calls at the February $24 strike for a premium of $0.50 apiece, spread against…
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Goldman Sachs Bulls and Bears Collide
by Phil - January 21st, 2010 5:13 pm
Today’s tickers: GS, WFT, FITB, NITE, USU, KFT, UNP, EBAY, SBUX & HOTT
GS – Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – Near-term bears and bulls crossed paths in the February contract on global investment banking firm, Goldman Sachs Group, today. The past 48 hours have stirred up a plethora of concerning news for investors, most recently, President Obama’s call to limit the size and trading activity of large financial institutions, which pummeled the financial sector like a ton of bricks, dragging equities down across the board. Additionally, markets are still smarting from China’s reining in of monetary policy, which sent the US dollar up over the past couple of days. The VIX jumped yesterday and continues higher during the current session. The fear-gauge increased 19.67% today to an intraday high of 21.90 countering the declines in the S&P 500. Investors watched Goldman’s shares fall 4% to $161.07 this afternoon even though the firm earned $8.20 per share in the fourth-quarter, which blew right past average estimates of $5.19 a share. Frenzied options trading exploded on the financial institution with roughly 358,000 contracts exchanged on the stock by 2:50 pm (EDT). Bearish bets were plentiful, although there is also evidence of contrarian bullish plays, as well. Put options were purchased as low as the February $145 strike where 3,500 contracts were purchased for an average premium of $1.46 per contract. Shares are still 12.20% greater at the current level than the breakeven price on the puts at $143.54. The heaviest put trading occurred at the nearest to-the-money February $160 strike where more than 23,000 contracts changed hands. At least 8,100 of the contracts were purchased for $4.12 per contract. Contrarian players sold 2,300 puts at the February $135 strike to pocket an average premium of $0.93 each. Put sellers retain the full premium as long as Goldman’s shares trade above $135.00 through expiration next month. Some investors are looking right through the negative news and buying call options. Most notable is the 7,200 calls purchased at the February $165 strike for an average premium of $4.52 each. The stock must rebound back to $169.52 in order for call buyers to breakeven on their purchases. Other traders threw in the towel at the higher February $170 strike by selling at least 8,900 calls to receive an average premium of $3.02 per contract. Two-way trading traffic in GS options and investor uncertainty has lifted option implied…
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Testy Tuesday - Have the Markets Become Comfortably Numb?
by Phil - January 19th, 2010 8:08 am
"There is no pain you are receding
A distant ship’s smoke on the horizon.
You are only coming through in waves.
Your lips move but I can’t hear what you’re saying.
When I was a child
I caught a fleeting glimpse
Out of the corner of my eye.
I turned to look but it was gone
I cannot put my finger on it now
The child is grown,
The dream is gone.
but I have become comfortably numb." - Pink Floyd
I have a theory that the markets (and the American people in general) aren’t irrational, they are simply shell-shocked after suffering a very traumatic group financial experience…
To be shell-shocked is to be "mentally confused, upset, or exhausted as a result of excessive stress" and the most common symptoms are: Fatigue, slower reaction times, indecision, disconnection from one’s surroundings, and inability to prioritize - That certainly sounds like our Congress doesn’t it? Combat stress disorder was first diagnosed in WWI, when 10% of the troops were killed and 56% wounded - far worse than had been experienced in previous wars. Our current financial crisis has similarly affected more people than any previous crisis with almost everyone knowing someone who is bankrupt or lost their jobs or homes and almost no one escaped the carnage of the downturn without some financial damage.
Combat fatigue may go a long way to explaining the severe drop-off in volume that has plagued the markets since March, with participation now down to 25% of where we were last January and that leaves us open to the blatant sort of market manipulation that Karl Denninger caught last week as well as the usual nonsense we get daily from HFT programs that drive the market with such precision that we are able to tell how the day is going to go by simply checking our hourly volume targets. Here’s a clip from CNBC where a floor trader discusses market manipulation as a fact of trading (2 mins in).
As Nicholas Santiago points out on In The Money Stocks, "January is usually a very high volume month, yet it has started off the New Year even lighter than the last two months of 2009. Light volume markets are very difficult to short. Hence the old saying, ‘never short a dull market’." Not only is the market volume light, but over 60% of the trading volume is concentrated on 5 stocks: AIG, C, BAC, FNM and FRE!
We have often noted that high-volume (relatively) days almost always tend to be down days and PSW Members can tell you how the…
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Option Traders Try Their Luck with Out-of-the-Money Calls on MGM Mirage
by Andrew Wilkinson - December 23rd, 2009 4:13 pm
Today’s tickers: MGM, EWC, EWZ, DHI, XLF, GLW, TRA, CF, PHM, GFI & EBAY
MGM - MGM Mirage, Inc. – Shares of casino resort operator, MGM Mirage, rallied 5.25% this afternoon to $9.62. Option traders expecting shares to rally significantly in the next 12 months bought call options in the January 2011 contract. Approximately 20,000 calls were purchased at the January 2011 20 strike for an average premium of 70 cents per contract. Investors break even on the calls if MGM’s shares more than double by expiration. Shares must rally at least 115% to the breakeven price of $20.70 in order for call-buyers to begin to accumulate profits.
EWC - iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF – The exchange-traded fund, which mirrors the performance of publicly traded securities in the Canadian market, attracted pessimistic option players. The bearish risk reversal established on the fund contrasts with the nearly 1.5% rally in shares of the underlying to $26.30 during the session. It appears one investor sold 12,500 calls at the June 27 strike for a premium of 1.60 each, spread against the purchase of the same number of calls at the lower June 26 strike for two dollars premium apiece. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 40 cents per contract. Profits on the trade – assuming the investor holds no underlying stock position – accrue if shares of the EWC slip beneath the breakeven point to the downside at $25.60 by expiration in June 2010.
EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – A number of bullish trades on the Brazil exchange-traded fund today suggest shares of the EWZ are set to rally in the first few months of the new year. Shares edged 1.5% higher during the trading day to stand at $73.21. Optimistic traders employed a number of different option strategies in order to position for bullish movement in the price of the underlying stock. One trader initiated a risk reversal in the January contract by selling 6,000 puts at the January 72 strike for 1.80 each, spread against the purchase of 6,000 in-the-money calls at the same strike for 2.70 apiece. The cost of getting long the call options is reduced to 90 cents per contract for the reversal player. Profits on the position amass above the breakeven price of $72.90. Another option bull unfurled the wings of a butterfly spread in the March contract. The trader purchased the 1000-lot wings of the…
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Werner Enterprises Sees Bearish Activity
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 22nd, 2009 4:35 pm
Today’s tickers: WERN, MDVN, GT, XRX, SLE, AMGN, ESI, EBAY, FFIV & SLE
WERN - Werner Enterprises, Inc. – The truckload freight services firm edged onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner due to bearish trading in the June contract. Shares of WERN slipped 0.5% lower this afternoon to $20.22. One investor initiated a ratio put spread by purchasing 6,000 put options at the June 20 strike for 2.25 apiece, and by simultaneously selling 12,000 puts at the lower June 17.5 strike for 1.10 each. The net cost of the trade is reduced to just one nickel per contract. The trader is probably aiming to protect the value of a long position in shares of WERN through expiration. Downside protection will kick in if shares decline more than 27 cents from the current price given the effective breakeven point on the trade at $19.95.
MDVN - Medivation, Inc. – Long-term bearish activity in the June 2010 contract suggests one investor may be bulking up on downside protection in case shares of biopharmaceutical company, Medivation, Inc., continue to decline. The stock is currently trading less than 0.5% lower to stand at $26.51. A put spread was established through the purchase of 10,000 puts at the June 22.5 strike for 7.80 apiece, marked against the sale of 10,000 puts at the lower June 12.5 strike for 1.87 each. The net cost of the pessimistic play amounts to 5.93 per contract. The spread was most likely initiated by an investor holding a long position in the underlying shares. Putting on the protective stance shields the investor from losses beneath the breakeven point at $16.57. However, if the trader is in fact long the stock, he will suffer a 38% decline in the value of MDVN before downside protection kicks in at the breakeven price described. An alternate scenario is that the investor does not hold a long position in MDVN. If this is the case, the trader is uber-bearish and expects to garner profits from significant declines in Medivation through expiration in June.
GT - The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. – Option traders populated the November contract on GT with bullish plays this afternoon. Shares added more than 2.5% during the session to arrive at the current price of $17.83. Some investors targeted the now in-the-money November 17.5 strike to purchase 3,800 calls for an average premium of one dollar apiece. Other traders looked to the higher…
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Jobless Thursday - Max Keiser Bashes Banks
by Phil - October 22nd, 2009 8:19 am
I’ve never embedded a video before but you just have to see this so I’m learning a new trick. Keiser puts out some gems like:
Goldmans Sachs, JPM, CitigGroup are all engaged in accounting fraud- The American peasants have got to be the stupidest people in the World today. They don’t mind becoming peasants, they don’t mind living like peasants and, if that’s the case, then we should do nothing to stop them from sliding into a peasant class.
- Banks are just stealing money outright from the World economy.
- There is no liquidity being provided by the banks, they are hoarding their cash and non-disclosing their losses.
- In part 2 of the video: "The reality is people are dying due to the actions of JPM, GS and the Wall Street Jihadists"
Max compares Wall Street bankers to suicide bombers and predicts it is only a matter of time before they are back before Congress with a gun to their heads threatening the destruction of America if they don’t get another bailout. I’m glad he said it an not me because I get enough hate mail from GS fans… Keiser makes the point that, while the American people may put up with this nonsense, the leaders of Europe and Russia and China look at what’s going on here and have no faith in our currency.
I think this is great as it saves me from ranting and raving this morning. I had my fill in yesterday’s post when I said the only way to play this market to the bull side is to suspend all logical disbelief. Fortunately, we had a huge, ridiculous run-up in the morning that gave us tremendous shorting opportunties. Even as the market was rising, in my 9:56 Alert to Members, we targeted the DIA $99 puts at $1.30 and those finished the day at $2 (up 54%) and in my 10:32 Alert to Members we sold the FAZ $19 puts for $1.80 and those finished the day at $1.20 (up 33%). We also took short plays as the market topped on MS, IYT, CS, ICE, V, GMCR, DD, EBAY and even our beloved AAPL as the market was just too ridiculous looking to be bullish.
As usual, we jumped on top of the Beige Book and right at 2:02 I commented that the headlines didn’t seem so hot and by 2:50 we had a thorough breakdown and determined that SRS was the way to go as the statements regarding…
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Whirlpool Call Buyers in a Spin Over New Chinese Factory
by Andrew Wilkinson - July 16th, 2009 5:49 pm
Today’s tickers: WHR, MRK, EBAY, RHI, XLP, MOS, GE, LSI & MGM
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Ebay on the options auction block
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 13th, 2009 6:45 pm
Today’s tickers: EBAY, HUM, EEM, FXI, C, XLV, GM & LVS
EBAY Ebay Inc. – With its shares struggling to regain breakeven territory today and down 2% at $11.89, a large buyer of protective put options has emerged scooping up 20,000 contracts guaranteeing selling rights should the shares slip to $7.50 by January 2010 expiration. The investor paid a 67 cent premium to for 20,000 options potentially covering 2 million shares valued at almost $24 million at its current share price.
HUM Humana, Inc. – The health benefits company has become a hot-bed for options activity today, and its shares have jumped 10% to $25.30 in response to news of a potential buy-out situation fresh from the rumor-mill. Although little information is currently available in terms of specifics, it has been reported that it would “take a behemoth of a company to acquire Humana”, as they are currently the second-largest provider of health benefits that is backed by the United States Medicare program. Investors have witnessed major acquisitions lately, such as Pfizer’s buy-out of Wyeth and the more recent Merck/Schering-Plough agreement. Thus, traders wasted no time reacting to the bullish musings surrounding Humana and options volume amassed steadily this afternoon. Calls were traded six times to every put and the frantic activity boosted call premiums and implied volatility higher. Some investors were seen banking gains by selling calls in the March contract at the now in-the-money 25 strike price, where about 5,000 sold for as much as 1.90. Further along, at the March 30 strike price, about 9,300 calls were purchased for an average premium of 60 cents. Shares would need to rally an additional 21% from the current price in order to reach the breakeven point at $30.60 by next Friday. In the April contract bullish investors were seen buying calls at the 30 and 35 strikes. Traders shelled out 1.14 for each of the 2,000 calls purchased at the April 30 and 57 cents for each of the 1,800 coveted at the April 35 strike price. It is likely that until a buyer – and more importantly a buy-out price – is announced traders will continue to trade heavily in HUM and send implied volatility even higher than the current reading at 106% up from 86% this morning. Investors have left much on the table for speculators here since the Obama budget announcement caused selling across the sector meaning that shares have…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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