Posts Tagged ‘Economic Activities’

Stagflation 2011: Why It Is Here And Why It Is Going To Be Very Painful

Courtesy of Michael Snyder at Economic Collapse 

Are you ready for an economy that has high inflation and high unemployment at the same time? Well, welcome to "Stagflation 2011".  Stagflation exists when inflation and unemployment are both at high levels at the same time.  Of course we all know about the high unemployment situation already.  Gallup’s daily tracking poll says that the U.S. unemployment rate has been hovering around 10 percent all year so far.  But now thanks to rapidly rising food prices and the exploding price of oil, rampant inflation is being added to the equation.

Normally inflation is a sign of increased economic activity, but when the basic commodities that we depend on to run our economy (such as oil) go up in price it actually causes a slowdown in economy activity. When the price of oil goes up high enough, it fundamentally changes the behavior of individuals and businesses.  Suddenly certain types of economic activities that were feasible when oil was very cheap are not profitable any longer.  When the price of oil rises to a new level and it stays there, essentially what is happening is that more "blood" is being drained out of our economy.  Our economy will continue to function when there are higher oil prices, it will just be a lot more sluggish.

In some way, shape or form the price of oil factors into the production of most of our goods and services and it also factors into the transportation of most of our goods and services. A significant rise in the price of oil changes the economic equation for almost every business in the United States.

Today, the price of WTI crude soared past 100 dollars a barrel before closing at $98.10.  The price of Brent crude increased 5.3 percent to $111.25.  The protests in Libya are certainly causing a lot of the price activity that we have seen over the past few days, but the truth is that oil has been going up for a number of months.  Right now we are only seeing an acceleration of the long-term trend.

Things are likely to get far worse if the "day of rage" planned for Saudi Arabia next month turns into a full-blown revolution.  Up to this point, the revolutions that have been sweeping the Middle East have been organized largely on Facebook, and now there are calls all over…
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Zero Hedge

Dead, White, & Blue - The Great Die-Off Of America's Blue Collar Whites

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden. the 2016 campaign season, it couldn’t be clearer that the billionaire version of white privilege is going great guns, but as for working class whites, not so much. As Barbara Ehrenreich, founding editor of the Economic Hardship Reporting Project, notes today, the sense of white privilege has taken a hit in America and that’s not surprising. A recent study she cites suggests that middle-aged whites with no more than a high-school degree now have death rates that, in developed countries, come close only to those last seen ...

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Phil's Favorites

Lee Adler's Composite Liquidity Indicator

Lee Adler at Wall Street Examiner shows that the stock market continues to mirror his composite liquidity indicator, with both the S&P and the liquidity indicator moving higher. Here is Lee's composite liquidity indicator chart:

Lee writes,

Macroliquidity increased slightly last week. The trend is still positive, although at a much shallower angle than during the years when the Fed was doing QE. The growth rate this year has only been around 2%. 


I was expecting a Wile E. Coyote moment if the market did not buckle in the wake of the $100 billion in Treasury supply settling on November 27 and 30. It hasn’t happened yet. Instead the market rallied on December 1. It forces us to consider the idea that the money printing by the ECB and BoJ is sufficient to keep the pot boiling in the US. The same worldwide dealers and institutions are drinking from the worldwide trough of cent...

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Chart School

Strong Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday's modest losses were undone by today's swoop by buyers. This will have forced many shorts to cover, particularly those who decided to take advantage of yesterday's weakness.  The seasonally positive 'Santa rally' may be perfectly timed here if the November high can be taken out.

The S&P reversed the move lower after it failed to crack support of the tight range. Bulls look to be making a better fist of this, and there is a good chance for some follow through higher. On the negative side, the index's relative performance remains a problem as it sharply underperforms against both Tech and Small Cap Indices. It also have negative technicals in the form of On-Balance-Volume and MACD, although the latter is just shy of a 'strong buy' signal.


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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Morgan Stanley Calls 2016 the Year of the Yen With BOJ on Hold (Bloomberg)

The yen will outshine the dollar as next year’s star performer in the $5.3 trillion-a-day global currency market, according to Morgan Stanley.

A top Wall Street strategist believes the global bull market will end in 2017 (Business Insider)

Societe Generale is out with a call for the end of the global stock bull market: 2017. 

In its year-ahead outlook for 2016, SocGen expects that aside from the US, next year ...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bull market depends on what this stock does (Update), says Joe

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could one stock really tell you where the broad market heads? Joe Friday shared he thought so on November the 13th in the chart below. Bio-tech stock Valeant Pharma (VRX) had been slammed the prior few months and the broad market dipped along with it.

The chart below reflected the VRX was testing five support lines at one time at (3), along with oversold momentum at (1) and volume was sky high at (2), which could have reflected panic selling. All of these conditions would suggest this price point was key for the stock and maybe the broad markets.

Since the Joe Friday post, VRX is up over 28% in less than 3-weeks


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Insider Scoop

Aduro Biotech Downgraded By Oppenheimer On Listeriosis Disclosure

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related ADRO Aduro Biotech Receives Orphan Drug Designation in the European Union for CRS-207 for the Treatment of Mesothelioma Benzinga's Top Initiations
  • Aduro BioTech Inc (NASDAQ: ADRO) shares have climbed 51 percent in the last three months, even after hitting a low of $19.03 on September 29.
  • Oppenheimer’s Wendy Lam downgraded the rating on the company to Perform.
  • Al... more from Insider


Swing trading portfolio - week of November 30th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Digital Currencies

The Bitcoin Universe Explained

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As evidenced by the Greek, Chinese, and now Argentine 'jumps', the world remains increasingly aware of the inevitable worth of fiat currencies and fears the desperate acts of governments as the react to that reality (and is looking for alternatives).

This infographic explains the wide ranges of the Bitcoin universe, accompanied with quotes from some of its best-known business leaders.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist ...

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Sector Detector: Bulls wrest back control of market direction, despite global adversity

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Some weeks when I write this article there is little new to talk about from the prior week. It’s always the Fed, global QE, China growth, election chatter, oil prices, etc. And then there are times like this in which there is so much happening that I don’t know where to start. Of course, the biggest market-moving news came the weekend before last when Paris was put face-to-face with the depths of human depravity and savagery. And yet the stock market responded with its best week of the year. As a result, the key issues dominating the front page and election chatter have moved from the economy and jobs to national security and a real war (rather than police ...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli


Whitney Tilson On LL, EXACT, And Martin Shkreli

Courtesy of Value Walk

1) The shares of one of my largest short positions (~3%), Exact Sciences, crashed by more than 46% yesterday. Below is the article I published this morning on SeekingAlpha, explaining why I think it’s still a great short and thus shorted more yesterday. Here’s a summary:

  • The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force’s Colorectal Cancer Screening Draft Recommendation issued yesterday is devastating for Exact Sciences’ only product, Cologuard.
  • I think this is the beginning of the end for the company.
  • My price target for the stock a year from now is $3, so I shorted more yes...

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Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...

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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 


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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

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