Posts Tagged ‘economic crisis’

Preserve and Protect: Mapping The Tipping Points

Preserve and Protect: Mapping The Tipping Points

Courtesy of Gordon T Long of Tipping Points

The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price.  As a sailor, it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talgking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?

What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors, the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology for protection against such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.

Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.

Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971, the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably has become unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.

Do you believe trees grow to the sky?
Or, is it you believe you are smart enough to get out before this graph crashes?

Apparent synthetic wealth has artificially and temporarily been created through the production of paper. Whether Federal Reserve IOU notes (the dollar) or guaranteed certificates of confiscation (treasury notes & bonds), it needs to never be forgotten that these are paper. It is not wealth. It is someone else’s obligation to deliver that wealth to the holder of the paper based on what that paper is felt to be worth when the obligation is required to be surrendered. It must never be forgotten that fiat paper is only a counter party obligation to deliver. Will they?…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




Naked Capitalism and My Scary Minsky Model

Naked Capitalism and My Scary Minsky Model

Courtesy of Steve Keen at Debtwatch

I met with Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism on the weekend, at a superb Japanese restaurant that only New York locals could find (and I’ll keep its location quiet for their benefit–too much publicity could spoil a spectacular thing). Yves was kind enough to post details of my latest academic paper at her site in a post she entitled “Steve Keen’s scary Minsky model“.

Yves found the model scary, not because it revealed anything about the economy that she didn’t already know, but because it so easily reproduced the Ponzi features of the economy she knows so well.

I have yet to attempt to fit the model to data–and given its nonlinearity, that won’t be easy–but its qualitative behavior is very close to what we’ve experienced. As in the real world, a series of booms and busts give the superficial appearance of an economy entering a “Great Moderation”–just before it collapses.

The motive force driving the crash is the ratio of debt to GDP–a key feature of the real world that the mainstream economists who dominate the world’s academic university departments, Central Banks and Treasuries ignore. In the model, as in the real world, this ratio rises in a boom as businesses take on debt to finance investment and speculation, and then falls in a slump when things don’t work out in line with the euphoric expectations that developed during the boom. Cash flows during the slump don’t allow borrowers to reduce the debt to GDP ratio to the pre-boom level, but the period of relative stability after the crisis leads to expectations–and debt–taking off once more.

Ultimately, such an extreme level of debt is accumulated that debt servicing exceeds available cash flows, and a permanent slump ensues–a Depression.

There are 4 behavioural functions in the model that mimic the behaviour of the major private actors in the economy–workers, capitalists and bankers. Workers wage rises are related to the level of employment and the rate of inflation; capitalists investment and debt repayment plans are related to the rate of profit; and the willingness of banks to lend is also a function of the rate of profit.…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,




Will Thousands Of Police Layoffs Unleash Chaos And Anarchy Across America?

Law enforcement is, or at least was, considered one of the (few, for libertarian-types) legitimate functions of government. Just saying. – Ilene

Will Thousands Of Police Layoffs Unleash Chaos And Anarchy Across America?

Courtesy of Michael Synder at The Economic Collapse 

 

Thousands of police officers have been laid off all across America since the current economic crisis began.  Thousands more are getting ready to be laid off.  So could we be on the verge of a new era of chaos and anarchy in America as crime runs wild and there are just far too few police to respond to it all?  That is the message that one blood-smeared billboard in Stockton, California is trying to get across.  Paid for by the Stockton, California police union, the message of the billboard is chillingly clear: "Welcome to the 2nd most dangerous city in California. Stop laying off cops."  As state, city and local governments across the United States continue to be devastated by the ongoing economic crisis, budget cuts are becoming much deeper and police forces have suddenly become a very popular target.

Officer Steve Leonesio, the president of the Stockton Police Officers Association, has announced that the police union plans to spend approximately $20,000 on at least 20 more billboards.

Why is the union putting up all of these billboards?

Well, it turns out that Stockton has been considering a plan to lay off 53 police officers in an effort to eliminate a $23 million budget deficit.

But law enforcement in Stockton has already been cut to the bone.  Recently, the Stockton Police Department dropped this bombshell….

"We absolutely do not have any narcotics officers, narcotics sergeants working any kind of investigative narcotics type cases at this point in time."

Do you think drug dealers will be flocking to Stockton after they hear that?

But the truth is that so many of these local governments around the nation are just flat broke at this point. 

Even major cities are having to admit that they have accumulated such large debts that they cannot even afford to provide the most basic services any longer.

In Oakland, California the battle over police layoffs has made national headlines over the past couple of weeks.  Oakland has laid off 80 police officers, and now the police chief says that there are some crimes that his department simply will not be able to…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , ,




Irony: Our Huge Military Is What Made Us an Empire… But Our Huge Military is What Is Bankrupting Us, Thus DESTROYING Our Status as an Empire

Irony: Our Huge Military Is What Made Us an Empire … But Our Huge Military is What Is Bankrupting Us, Thus DESTROYING Our Status as an Empire

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog

As I’ve previously pointed out, America’s military-industrial complex is ruining our economy.

And U.S. military and intelligence leaders say that the economic crisis is the biggest national security threat to the United States. See this, this and this.

As RT points out, it is ironic that America’s huge military spending is what made us an empire … but our huge military is what is bankrupting us … thus destroying our status as an empire:

No wonder people from opposite ends of the political spectrum like Barney Frank and Ron Paul are calling for a reduction in military spending.


Tags: , , , , , ,




CONGRESSMAN BRADY ASKS GEITHNER TO STEP DOWN

CONGRESSMAN BRADY ASKS GEITHNER TO STEP DOWN

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

This relatively boring hearing suddenly turned exciting when Congressman Kevin Brady asked Tim Geithner to step down.   The economic team that President Obama put in place (primarily Geithner and Summers) has been largely responsible for the current predicament.  This is not to imply that the Republicans and President Bush did not play an equal (or greater) role in the economic crisis, but it’s truly astonishing that the people who helped cause this crisis are the same ones who are attempting to steer us out of it:

 


Tags: , , , ,




THE 7 MOST IMPORTANT QUESTIONS TODAY….

THE 7 MOST IMPORTANT QUESTIONS TODAY….

questionsCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

A recent piece of research from JP Morgan touches on some frequently asked questions by investors.  I’ve provided their responses along with my own:

1) Is the crisis over?

The financial crisis is largely over. The economic crisis, only half so. The recession is over but the recovery has just started. Even the above-trend growth pace that we project for this recovery will require years to get us back to trend levels of activity. This means high unemployment and disinflationary pressures over the next two years.

TPC Response:

I have to agree with JP Morgan here.  The crisis and the days of 700 point Dow drops are long gone.  But the recovery is going to feel a lot like a recession.  In other words, jobs are going to be slow to come back, the consumer is going to be sluggish while stocks and the housing market are likely to be range bound for years.  What JP Morgan doesn’t mention is that most of our long-term structural problems still exist.  Wall Street is back to their old tricks while the consumer struggles under a mountain of debt, job losses and stagnant wages.  The Fed is trying their best to keep the boom/bust market alive and well.  More likely than not, they are simply inflating the economy in preparation for the next bust.  Two years is likely a generous timeframe for the end of our secular problems.

2) Is the recovery sustainable?

Yes, odds are it is given unprecedented and synchronized global policy stimulus, low funding costs, a repaired financial system, and the massive need for inventory rebuilding into next year.  What are the main risk factors we should monitor? For the recovery in the world economy and in risky assets to be sustained, the private sector will need to take the baton from the public sector. Corporates are in the driver’s seat here. We need to see them move from a precautionary into an expansionary mode. That means capital spending, jobs, and income creation. Watch these.

TPC Response:

This is very much in doubt.  Thus far, the recovery has been largely driven by government stimulus.  Even with the massive stimulus the economy remains very weak considering the duration of the recession.  Without an extension of the home buyers tax…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , ,




SP Futures Hourly Chart

SP Futures Hourly Chart at 2:30 PM EDT

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

A potential Head and Shoulders top has formed. It will be a valid formation but the objective will not be activated until and unless the neckline is broken.

Volumes remain light, with lots of technical gamesmanship that contributes to quite a bit of volatility in the short term, aka a ‘daytrader’s market.’

There is quite a bit of ‘tension’ in the market ahead of the GDP report tomorrow. The consensus is for growth of 1.5%. We are still a couple of weeks short of the timeframe we have projected for a top and the beginning of a leg down in markets, but some data or exogenous surprise could accelerate this.

There is a de facto partnership between the government and the banks with regard to the financial system and the economy which is spilling over to the equity markets. This is a similar arrangement that brought us the housing bubble and the credit crisis after the tech bubble and crash of 2001, which itself was a reaction to the Asian and Russian currency crisis of the late 1990′s.

The financial engineers will likely not abandon their efforts until they either succeed, or finally shake the real economy apart and destroy the US financial system and currency. How they define ‘success’ is likely to be stability at the price of freedom, a classic oligarchy with ‘enlightened despots.’ Their financial engineering will require ever greater control over policy and priorities to maintain its artificial equilibrium.

The banks must be restrained, the financial system reformed, and the economy brought back into balance before there can be a sustained recovery.


 

 

Tags: , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

3D Printing an Ornate Bridge Over a Water in Amsterdam

Courtesy of Mish.

Every month, 3D printing possibilities get increasingly elaborate.

For example (with thanks to reader Tim Wallace for the links): The Goal of MX3D is to 3D print a steel bridge. Really.
With our robots that can “draw” steel structures in 3D, we will print a bridge over water in the center of Amsterdam. We research and develop groundbreaking, cost-effective robotic technology with which we can 3D print beautiful, functional objects in almost any form. The ultimate test? Printing an intricate, ornate metal bridge for a special location to show what our robots and software, engineers, craftsmen and designers can do.

The bridge will be designed by Joris Laarman. That process using new Autodesk software will be a research project in itself. It will sync with the tech...



more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oils Drop Below $50 May Be Just the Start as Demand Swoons (Bloomberg)

Oil has fallen to a six-month low, and hopes of a quick rebound are fading as demand heads into an autumn swoon.

It is getting ugly in Canada (Business Insider)

“It’s an election about who will protect our economy in a period of ongoing global instability,” Stephen Harper, Prime Minister of Canada, announced on Sunday as he officially kicked off the campaign for the federal elections on October 19. He’d just asked Governor Gen...



more from Paul

ValueWalk

RBA, RBI And BoT Won't Change Interest Rates For Now: MS

By Mani. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The central banks of Australia, India and Thailand won’t change interest rates this week, though India and Australia could announce further cuts in rates in September and November respectively, suggests Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS). In their “Asia / Pacific Weekly Preview” research note, analyst Derrick Y. Kam and his team explain that they anticipate Indonesia will report a deceleration in growth.

Australia could prune interest rates to 1.75% in November

Kam and colleagues expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate at 2% at this week’s meeting, though the centr...



more from ValueWalk

Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Friday, 03 July 2015, 07:15:03 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: Alasdair Macleod views on Greece and China. Excellent! youtu.be/62lucEzzZMk



Date Found: Tuesday, 07 July 2015, 02:39:22 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: POST GREECE 'NO' vote some bonds are being re priced for true risk. Massive ouch!



Date Found: Tuesday, 07 July 2015, 07:55:35 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache ...



more from Chart School

Zero Hedge

Washington's "Fifth Columns" Inside Russia And China

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Paul Craig Roberts,

It took two decades for Russia and China to understand that “pro-democracy” and “human rights” organizations operating within their countries were subversive organizations funded by the US Department of State and a collection of private American foundations organized by Washington. The real purpose of these non-governmental organizations (NGOs) is to advance Washington’s hegemony by destabilizing the two countries capable of resisting US hegemony.

Washington’s Fifth Columns pulled off &ld...



more from Tyler

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 3rd, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Kimble Charting Solutions

Consumption and Yields suggesting lower interest rates ahead!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the yield on the 30-year bond. Yields rallied strongly from the first of February to the first of July (up 30%). This strong rally in yields hit dual resistance at (1) above, which was the 38% retracement level and the bottom of a rising channel, which both came into play as resistance. Once yields hit resistance a month ago, yields have been falling and bond prices moving higher.

Now yields are attempting to break steep rising support at (2) above.

Below is a very cool chart of the Personal Consumption Expenditure index on a year over year basis, shared by ...



more from Kimble C.S.

Sabrient

Sector Detector: Lackluster earnings reports put eager bulls back into waiting mode

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-ranked stocks from the top-ranked sectors.

Corporate earnings reports have been mixed at best, interspersed with the occasional spectacular report -- primarily from mega-caps like Google (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), or Amazon (AMZN). Some of the bul...



more from Sabrient

Digital Currencies

Gold Spikes Back Above $1100, Bitcoin Jumps

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold is jumping after the overnight double flash-crash...testing back towards $1100...

Bitcoin is back up to pre-"Greece is Fixed" levels...

Charts: Bloomberg and Bitcoinwisdom

...

more from Bitcoin

Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



more from Pharmboy

Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



more from M.T.M.

Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>