Posts Tagged ‘economic indicators’

The Albert Edwards Exploration Diary, Day 423

Joshua M Brown found the latest entry in the diary of a frustrated bear in search of negative data showing the economy is headed for a downturn in The Albert Edwards Exploration Diary, Day 423. – Ilene 

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

2 Decembre Anno Domini 2010

This morning I awoke to a cable from the nearest village informing me that Cyber Monday shopping stateside broke all kinds of records.  I’ve also been informed that PMIs from around the world are now in expansionary territory in unison.  Even jobs data is getting a tiny bit better, week by week…

But still I forge ahead.  I will scour the ends of the earth to find indicators that cast economic conditions in a negative light.  I will climb the highest peaks and plumb the depths of the Seven Seas in search of Depressionary evidence – no matter how obscure.  I will measure the second derivative change in Chinese eel sales on the wharves of Tianjin.  I will document the savings rates of retired sailors in Marseilles.  I will stop at nothing to make the numbers agree with my orneriness – this I swear to you, faithful client of Societe Generale.

Although my employer SocGen, the bankroller of my exploration, appears to be losing faith in my stubborn jeremiads, I must continue until I am proven correct.  I must plow on in my search for negative data until I am vindicated, even if global markets triple and quadruple before the next down cycle.

One day, the recovery will falter.  And on that day, I will be redeemed.

Yours in Perma-Bearishness,

Albert

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The ECRI Weekly Leading Index

The ECRI Weekly Leading Index 

Courtesy of Doug Short 

Today the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) registered negative growth for the 15th consecutive week, coming in at -9.2, a slight improvement over last week’s -10.1. The index had been hovering around -10 for the previous five weeks. The latest weekly number is based on data through September 10.

The magnitude of decline from the peak in October 2009 is unprecedented in the Institute’s published data back to 1967. Recently, however, the Institute has disclosed that two earlier decades of data not available to the general public contained comparable declines in WLI growth (in 1951 and 1966) when no recession followed (HT Barry Ritholtz).

The Published Record

The ECRI WLI growth metric has had a respectable (but by no means perfect) record for forecasting recessions. The next chart shows the correlation between the WLI, GDP and recessions.

A significant decline in the WLI has been a leading indicator for six of the seven recessions since the 1960s. It lagged one recession (1981-1982) by nine weeks. The WLI did turned negative 17 times when no recession followed, but 14 of those declines were only slightly negative (-0.1 to -2.4) and most of them reversed after relatively brief periods.

Three of the false negatives were deeper declines. The Crash of 1987 took the Index negative for 68 weeks with a trough of -6.8. The Financial Crisis of 1998, which included the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, took the Index negative for 23 weeks with a trough of -4.5.

The third significant false negative came near the bottom of the bear market of 2000-2002, about nine months after the brief recession of 2001. At the time, the WLI seemed to be signaling a double-dip recession, but the economy and market accelerated in tandem in the spring of 2003, and a recession was avoided.

The Latest WLI Decline

The question, of course, is whether the latest WLI decline is a leading indicator of a recession or a false negative. The published index has never dropped to the current level without the onset of a recession. The deepest decline without a near-term recession was in the Crash of 1987, when the index slipped…
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July Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales “Mixed Bag”; Manufacturing Output Rises Led by Auto Sector

July Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales "Mixed Bag"; Manufacturing Output Rises Led by Auto Sector

Courtesy of Mish

Excluding autos and gas retail sales ran out of steam in July 2010. Please consider the SpendingPulse Report July Retail Sales Show Mixed Results.

After several months of sales slowdown, total retail sales have stabilized somewhat, although overall growth has slowed sharply since earlier this year. In fact, growth in July headline numbers was driven largely by an increase in spending on gasoline, which is why the ex-auto ex-gasoline number is a better barometer to measuring the underlying health in retail spending.

July’s growth rate excluding auto and gasoline leaves the three-month average year-to-year growth rate of retail sales at 1.0%, well below the 3.5% for the prior three months. The ex-auto year-over-year numbers tell a similar story of a shallow and stabilizing trough, with the unadjusted three-month average year-over-year growth rate slowing to 1.6% compared to the 6.5% average growth rate for the previous three months.

The first table above compares June and July 2010 vs. the same month in 2009.

The second table shows July 201o vs. June 2010 seasonally adjusted. For an alleged recovery, these are weak numbers.

Industrial Production up 1 Percent, Led by Autos

Inquiring minds are taking a look at the July Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report.

Industrial production rose 1.0 percent in July after having edged down 0.1 percent in June, and manufacturing output moved up 1.1 percent in July after having fallen 0.5 percent in June. A large contributor to the jump in manufacturing output in July was an increase of nearly 10 percent in the production of motor vehicles and parts; even so, manufacturing production excluding motor vehicles and parts advanced 0.6 percent.

The production of consumer goods moved up 1.1 percent, as the output of consumer durables jumped 4.9 percent: Production for all of its major components advanced. In addition to a gain of 8.8 percent in the output of automotive products, which was mainly due to a large increase in light truck assemblies, the indexes for home electronics and for miscellaneous goods increased 1.3 and 1.5 percent, respectively; the index for appliances, furniture, and carpeting moved up 0.5 percent.

Among components of consumer nondurables, the output of non-energy nondurables declined 0.2 percent, and the output of consumer energy products moved up


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10 LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS THAT ARE ROLLING OVER

10 LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS THAT ARE ROLLING OVER

Boston train wreck

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Via David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff:

1. The ECRI weekly leading index growth rate peaked on October 9, 2009 (at 28.54%; now at 9.0%).

2. The Conference Board’s LEI peaked at 109.4 in March (109.3 in April).

3. ISM orders/inventory ratio peaked at 1.805 in August 2009 (1.33 in April).

4. University of Michigan consumer expectations peaked on September 2009 (at 73.5) – now at 65.3 in May.

5. The UofM index of big-ticket consumer purchases peaked in February-March at 136; is down to 129 as of May.

6. Jobless claims bottomed at 442k on March 11.  They had peaked at 651k on March 28, 2009.  But they are back at 471k, which is where they were back on December 19, 2009 so the improvement has stalled out.  Not only that, but to keep 472k into perspective, claims were at 453k the week after 9/11 (and the economy back then was eight months into recession).  Yes, yes, employment has been rising of late; however, keep in mind that nonfarm payrolls are in the index of coincident indicators; claims are in the index of leading indicators.  Please let’s not drive looking through the rear window.

7. Single-family building permits peaked at 542k (annual rate) in March (were 484k in April).

8. Mortgage purchase applications peaked on April 30th at 291.3 and now are at a 13-year low of 192.1 even though mortgage rates have come down 20 basis points since the nearby high.

9. Auto production peaked at 7.8 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in January – was at 7.2 million in April.

10. Electrical utility output was down 0.1% YoY as of May 15th.  Could be another early sign that the production revival is behind us.

Source: Gluskin Sheff 


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GDP Contraction Coming In Second Quarter 2010?

GDP Contraction Coming In Second Quarter 2010?

Courtesy of Mish

I have been speaking with Rick Davis at the Consumer Metrics Institute about leading economic indicators. Davis claims his data leads the GDP by about 17 weeks while noting that other so-called "leading indicators" are merely a reflection on the stock market and yield curve.

Davis captures his data solely from online transactions of real consumers, in real time.

Here are a four charts. The first chart shows the Consumer Conference Board LEI, not the Consumer Metrics Index.

Consumer Conference Board LEI vs. S&P 500

Davis writes:

Is the conference board LEI really leading anything or is it merely a reflection of the stock market? A look at the actual values of the LEI and the S&P 500 over the last four years confirms the indicator is really a coincident indicator for the equity markets, published once a month, three weeks in arrears.

Weighted Composite Index (WCI) vs. S&P 500

The above chart shows the Consumer Metrics Weighted Composite Index (WCI) vs. the S&P 500 Index. Watch what happens when the above data is offset by 5 months.

WCI vs. S&P 500 Shifted 5 Months

The Consumer Metrics website shows most of the WCI components advancing. However, housing and consumer spending account for roughly 60% of the index and those are contracting.

It is hard to make a case on the basis of so little data, but at least since 2006 we see evidence of actual leading.

However, the stock market does not always follow the economy nor is the stock market a leading indicator of the economy.

Please see Is the Stock Market a Leading Indicator? for a discussion.

Thus, as interesting as the above chart may be, I would not recommend using Consumer Metrics Data to project stock market movements. However, when a stock market is as lofty as this one, and a recovery is priced in that is not likely to happen, I would expect the stock market to decline if the economy tanks.

Daily Growth Index (DGI) vs. BEA GDP

The above chart shows Consumer Metrics Daily Growth Index (DGI) plotted against GDP.

According to Davis the DGI is 91-Day moving average of the WCI that corresponds to a trailing ‘quarter’, and is translated from a 100-base number into a +/- percentage. For example 99 on the WCI would roughly correspond…
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Phil's Favorites

Has The Fed's Policy Decisions Propped Up Equities?

 

Has The Fed's Policy Decisions Propped Up Equities?

Courtesy of The Fat Pitch

Summary: The stock market rises on days when the FOMC releases its policy statement, probably as a result of some uncertainty being removed for market participants. This pattern has existed for more than 30 years. The Fed's ability to "jawbone" the market higher is no more exceptional now than it was during any prior bull market. 

* * *

Morgan Stanley's chief economist this week stated ...



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Zero Hedge

Meet The Young Virginia Democrat That Registered 19 Dead People To Vote In Virginia

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Just yesterday we wrote about an FBI investigation into potential voter fraud in the critical swing state of Virginia after it was revealed that 19 dead people had recently been re-registered to vote (see "FBI Investigating More Dead People Voting In The Key Swing State Of Virginia").  While the ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Atlanta Fed trims U.S. third-quarter growth forecast to 2.4 percent (Reuters)

The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed on Friday, following the latest data on inventories, trade and consumer spending this week.

Satellite Data Show China May Have Stored More Crude Than Estimated (Bloomberg)

...



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Mapping The Market

Sad Clown

A thought from Jean-Luc:

Every day that goes by brings more shady deals from Trump's past – now Cuba, more stuff about his foundation, his taxes! No wonder he doesn't want to release his taxes either – who the heck knows is buried in there.

In the meantime, Trump gets up at 5:00 AM to tweet about Alicia Machado! What a despicable coward little man-child!

Atrios sums up my feelings:

Sad Clown

I admit I find it hard to keep up the sense of humor about things these days. We laughed a lot during the Bush years, didn't we, my fellow pony aficionados. Trump should just make me laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh. But with Bush we could sorta pretend that people voted for him because they didn't quite see him for what he was. There's no doing that with Trump. Trump is Trump. He won't win, but a lot of...



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ValueWalk

LOTE: You Are Not Morally Obligated To Vote For The Lesser Of Two Evils

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

LOTE: You Are Not Morally Obligated To Vote For The Lesser Of Two Evils

“If Hitler were to invade Hell, I would at least make a favorable reference to the Devil in the House of Commons.” — Winston Churchill.

In Churchill’s estimation, Stalin was less evil than Hitler. Hence, the Allied Forces’ brief friendship with the Soviets: a marriage of convenience formed in Hell.

Image source: Wikimedia CommonsLOTE Dilemma The Right to Complain.

Every four years, Americans face the so-called lesser-of-two-evils (LOTE) dilemma: “Both major-party presidential candidates are lousy, but I’m duty-bound to vote. Free people get to co...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Commodities attempting triple breakout, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at Commodities ETF DBC over the past decade. Since the highs in 2008, DBC has been a great asset to avoid. Is it time to start paying attention and potentially own this hard hit ETF? Check out the rare price situation below in DBC.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The CRB (Commodities Index) has been down 5-years in a row, this has never happened in the history of commoditi...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

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Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!



Date Found: Sunday, 27 March 2016, 02:31:30 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

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