Posts Tagged ‘Elliott Wave Int.’

EUR/USD: What Moves You?

EUR/USD: What Moves You?

It’s not the news that creates forex market trends — it’s how traders interpret the news.

Courtesy of EWI’s Vadim Pokhlebkin

What moves currency markets? "The news" is how most forex traders would undoubtedly answer. Economic, political, you name it — events around the world are almost universally believed to shape trends in currencies.

A January 14 news story, for example, was high up on the roster of events that supposedly have a major impact on the euro-dollar exchange rate. That morning, the European Central Bank announced it was leaving the "interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1% for an eighth successive month." (FT.com)

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar after the news. But could it have rallied instead? You bet. In fact, traditional forex analysis says it should have. Here’s why.

Analysts always say that the higher a country’s interest rates, the more attractive its assets are to foreign investors — and, in turn, the stronger its currency. Well, U.S. interest rates are now at 0-.25% and in Europe, at 1%, they are 3 to 4 times higher. Isn’t that wildly bullish for the EUR? Apparently not, and wait till you hear why — because in today’s announcement ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet warned that European recovery would be “bumpy.” Ha!

By no means is this the first time a supposedly bullish event failed to lift the market. On June 6, 2007, for example, the ECB raised interest rates. Bullish, right? But the euro didn’t gain that day, either — the U.S. dollar did.

Watch forex markets with these "inconsistencies" in mind and you’ll see them often. In time you realize that it’s not news that creates market trends — it’s how traders interpret the news. That’s a subtle — but hugely important — distinction.

So the real question becomes: What determines how traders interpret the news? The Elliott Wave Principle answers that question head-on: social mood — i.e., how they collectively feel. Currency traders in a bullish mood disregard bad news and buy, leaving it to analysts to "explain" why. Bearishly-biased traders find "reasons" to sell even after the rosiest of economic reports.

If you know traders’ bias, you know the trend. How do you know? Watch Elliott wave patterns in forex charts – it’s reflected in there, on all time frames.

Today, the EUR/USD stands well below its November peak
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Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

At EWI’s Q&A Message Board, readers ask us dozens of questions daily. Here’s an interesting one that several subscribers have recently asked:

In Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, Short Term Update and elsewhere, you say that market sentiment is very bullish right now, which historically has indicated a market top. Is the sentiment really that bullish? I get a different feeling when I look around."

Elliott wave analysis is very visual; we’re all about charts. And often, a single look at a well-made chart can instantly show you what’s really been going on. Take a look at this chart from the December 2 issue of our Mon.-Wed.-Fri. Short Term Update:

stock market bears in hibernation

In the words of Steve Hochberg, the Update’s editor:

We see the bears’ retreat in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has dropped sharply the past three days to where it is nearly as low as it’s recent November 25 extreme of 20.05. We see it in the 10-day average of NYSE daily volume, which is at its lowest point since the bear-market rally started in March. And we see it in today’s release of the most recent Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey. The above chart shows the percentage of stock market bears, which has contracted to 16.7 percent… There are fewer bears now than at the October 2007 stock market peak and still fewer than at the June-July 2007 top in the NYSE a/d line.

By itself, a sentiment extreme — whether pessimistic or optimistic — is not a guarantee of a market reversal. (Nothing is, really: Financial markets exist in the world of probabilities, not certainties.) But couple sentiment measures with a longer-term Elliott wave pattern, and now you have a leg to stand on. 

*****

Elliott Wave International has extended their "downloading deadline" for their free 42-Page eBook, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci. The eBook, created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, is now available free until December 7, 2009. Go here to download your free eBook.

 


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Free offer from Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International (EWI) has just released a free eBook, "How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci."  This is being offered till Dec. 2nd.  Go here to download your free eBook.

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Free eBooks from EWI

Our friends at Elliott Wave International are offering a new eBook which they call an "expansive deflation survival guide."  Here’s what EWI has to say about the FREE "Deflation Survival Guide

Since the real estate top in 2005, deflation has festered its way into almost all asset classes, ravaging the portfolios of millions. If you’ve been spared from deflation’s mighty jaws, you surely know someone who hasn’t. 

Steadfastly throughout the years, Prechter issued warning after warning about the coming deflation. He provided helpful tips to readers on how to survive the coming deflation. Those who heeded his warnings have kept themselves, their families and their money safe.  If you haven’t yet given Prechter’s deflation argument your full attention, we write today to tell you that yesterday was the best time to do so. 

Prechter’s complete writings on deflation literally fill thousands of pages. Now, Prechter has compiled his most important deflation writings into a special 60-page Deflation Survival Guide. You will not find its entire contents in other books. Download your Free 60-page Deflation Survival Guide now.

 

Additional EWI free eBooks, listed here in this one convenient location:

 

 

 


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Zero Hedge

Missing Vegas Massacre Security Guard Resurfaces...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

The mystery is over. After vanishing since last Thursday, wounded Las Vegas security guard Jesus Campos has been found... On the set of 'Ellen'.

...



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Phil's Favorites

World hunger is increasing thanks to wars and climate change

 

World hunger is increasing thanks to wars and climate change

Courtesy of Leah SambergUniversity of Minnesota

Smallholder agriculture in southern Ethiopia. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. Leah Samberg

Around the globe, about 815 million people – 11 percent of the world’s population – went hungry in 2016, according to the latest data from the United Nations. This was the first increase in more than 15 years.

Between 1990 and 2015, due largely to a set of sweeping initiatives by the global community, the proportion of undernourished people in the world was cut in half. In 2015, U.N. member countries adopted t...



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Insider Scoop

W W Grainger Wins With Sticky Contracts For Large Clients

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GWW Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 18, 2017 The Market In 5 Minutes: Housing Star...

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ValueWalk

Marc Faber's America in Black and White

By Steve Slavin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It is truly amazing that even in our era of supposed political correctness, a respected financial advisor like Marc Faber, aka Dr. Doom, could publicly make the claim that the United States is much better off than it would have been if it had been colonized by blacks rather than whites. Even in the age of Trump, it seems that only the extreme rightwing hate groups have openly expressed such racist views.

In fairness, Faber did get one thing right: If America had been colonized by blacks instead of whites, our nation would certainly have been a very different place from what it is today.

...



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Chart School

More of the Same

Courtesy of Declan.

There was little change on the day-to-day machinations of the market. The S&P is riding along upper channel resistance with technicals still bullish.


The Nasdaq is caught in a halfway house with bullish technicals and a relative advantage of the index against the S&P.


The Russell 2000 is...

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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

 

BDC’s Crypto Corner

By Biodieselchris

Hello fellow PSW-ers. I've been interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins").

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) c...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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