Posts Tagged ‘Elliott Wave Internation’

Special Elliott Wave International Offer

Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just announced the beginning of FreeWeek event, where they throw open the doors for non-subscribers to test-drive some of their most popular premium services — at ZERO cost.

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The Bear Market and Depression: How Close to the Bottom?

When discussing Robert Prechter, reactions can be strong, ranging from the extreme of hero worship to the other extreme of complete skepticism.  So while Robert Prechter has a cult-like following of Elliott-Wavers, others (such as Damien of Wall St. Cheat Sheet) seriously ask whether he is certifiably insane.  My own thoughts are mixed, with conclusions pending. – Ilene 

The Bear Market and Depression: How Close to the Bottom?

By Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter thinks about markets and wave patterns, and goes back to the 1700s, the 1800s, and — most tellingly for our time now — the early 1900s when the Great Depression weighed down the United States in the late 1920s and early 1930s. With this large wash of history in mind, he is able to explain why he thinks we have a long way to go to get to the bottom of this bear market.

Here is an excerpt from the EWI Independent Investor eBook, in which Robert answers the question: How close to the bottom are we?

* * * * * 

Originally written by Robert Prechter for The Elliott Wave Theorist, January 2009

Some people contact us and say, “People are more bearish than I have ever seen them. This has to be a bottom.” The first half of this statement may well be true for many market observers. If one has been in the market for less than 14 years, one has never seen people this bearish. But market sentiment over those years was a historical anomaly. The annual dividend payout from stocks reached its lowest level ever: less than half the previous record. The P/E ratio reached its highest level ever: double the previous record. The price-to-book value ratio went into the stratosphere, as did the ratio between corporate bond yields and the same corporations’ stock dividend yields.

During nine and a half of those years, from October 1998 to March 2008, optimism dominated so consistently that bulls outnumbered bears among advisors (per the Investors Intelligence polls) for 481 out of 490 weeks. Investors got so used to this period of euphoria and financial excess that they have taken it as the norm.

With that period as a benchmark, the moderate slippage in optimism since 2007 does appear as a severe change. But observe a subtle irony: When commentators agree that investors are too bearish, they say so to
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U.S. Stocks: Will The Bears Relinquish Control?

U.S. Stocks: Will The Bears Relinquish Control

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International, by Nico Isaac

In case you were hiding out Tiger Woods’ style far away from the mainstream media during the past month, let me be the first to say: January saw an abrupt end to the U.S. stock market’s record-setting winning streak. Last count, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 4% in its worst monthly loss in a year.

Close-up of a businessman making a face in front of a telephone receiver

And, according to one Feb. 1, 2010, MarketWatch story, "The time to consider an exit strategy" has officially arrived. Here, the article captures the public’s astonishment turned acceptance of the Dow’s boom-to-gloom shift:

"The Dow has shocked the bulls out of their complacency. After all, analysts were looking for the bull market to last until at least the second half of the year. Investors were not prepared for such a sharp decline and now at least some of the chatter has gone from ‘how high will the market go?’ to ‘how low will it fall?’ [emphasis added]"
Let me get this straight. The powers that be say it’s time to "consider an exit strategy" — AFTER the Dow has already plunged 700-plus points to land at its lowest level in two months. That’s about as helpful as building a life raft AFTER your ship has begun to sink.

Let me get this straight. The powers that be say it’s time to "consider an exit strategy" — AFTER the Dow has already plunged 700-plus points to land at its lowest level in two months. That’s about as helpful as building a life raft AFTER your ship has begun to sink.

Those same sources go on to say investors were "not prepared" for the degree and depth of the stock market’s decline. This is only partly true. On Main Street, the early January flood of bull-is-back-type headlines gushed in and washed all the bears away.  Yet, on our "Elliott Wave" Street, preparation for a "sharp" decline in the Dow was in place. One week before the market turned down from its Jan. 19 high, Elliott Wave International’s Short TermUpdate went on high bearish alert with this note:

"a trend reversal is fast approaching. A potential stopping range is 10,725-10,740. A close beneath [critical support] will confirm that the diagonal is over and the market has started a down phase that should draw prices significantly


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Are These 4 Emotional Pitfalls Sabotaging Your Trading?

Are These 4 Emotional Pitfalls Sabotaging Your Trading?

gambling, lottery, profits, trading successBy Jeffrey Kennedy, courtesy of Elliott Wave International

The following is an excerpt from Jeffrey Kennedy’s Trader’s Classroom Collection.

To be a consistently successful trader, the most important trait to learn is emotional discipline. I discovered this the hard way trading full-time a few years ago. I remember one day in particular. My analysis told me the NASDAQ was going to start a sizable third wave rally between 10:00-10:30 the next day… and it did. When I reviewed my trade log later, I saw that several of my positions were profitable, yet I exited each of them at a loss. My analysis was perfect. It was like having tomorrow’s newspaper today. Unfortunately, I wanted to hit a home run, so I ignored singles and doubles.

I now call this emotional pitfall the “Lottery Syndrome.” People buy lottery tickets to win a jackpot, not five or ten dollars. It is easy to pass up a small profit in hopes of scoring a larger one. Problem is, home runs are rare. My goal now is to hit a single or double, so I don’t let my profits slip away.

Since then, I’ve identified other emotional pitfalls that I would like to share. See if any of these sound familiar.

Have you ever held on to a losing position because you “felt” that the market was going to come back in your favor? This is the “Inability to Admit Failure.” No one likes being wrong and for traders, being wrong usually costs money. What I find interesting is that many of us would rather lose money than admit failure. I know now that being wrong is much less expensive than being hopeful.

Another emotional pitfall that was especially tough to overcome is what I call the “Fear of Missing the Party.” This one is responsible for more losing trades than any other. Besides overtrading, this pitfall also causes you to get in too early. How many of us have gone short after a five-wave rally just to watch wave five extend? The solution is to use a time filter, which is a fancy way of saying wait a few bars before you start to dance. If a trade is worth taking, waiting for prices to confirm your analysis will not affect your profit that much. Anyway, I would much rather miss…
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Zero Hedge

The State Of Illinois Is "Past The Point Of No Return"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by via StockBoardAsset.com,

Summary

  • Unless used for capital improvements, any new Illinois State borrowing, regardless of security structure, will amount to nothing more than kicking the can further down the road.
  • Markets re...


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Phil's Favorites

World hunger is increasing thanks to wars and climate change

 

World hunger is increasing thanks to wars and climate change

Courtesy of Leah SambergUniversity of Minnesota

Smallholder agriculture in southern Ethiopia. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. Leah Samberg

Around the globe, about 815 million people – 11 percent of the world’s population – went hungry in 2016, according to the latest data from the United Nations. This was the first increase in more than 15 years.

Between 1990 and 2015, due largely to a set of sweeping initiatives by the global community, the proportion of undernourished people in the world was cut in half. In 2015, U.N. member countries adopted t...



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Insider Scoop

W W Grainger Wins With Sticky Contracts For Large Clients

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GWW Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For October 18, 2017 The Market In 5 Minutes: Housing Star...

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ValueWalk

Marc Faber's America in Black and White

By Steve Slavin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It is truly amazing that even in our era of supposed political correctness, a respected financial advisor like Marc Faber, aka Dr. Doom, could publicly make the claim that the United States is much better off than it would have been if it had been colonized by blacks rather than whites. Even in the age of Trump, it seems that only the extreme rightwing hate groups have openly expressed such racist views.

In fairness, Faber did get one thing right: If America had been colonized by blacks instead of whites, our nation would certainly have been a very different place from what it is today.

...



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Chart School

More of the Same

Courtesy of Declan.

There was little change on the day-to-day machinations of the market. The S&P is riding along upper channel resistance with technicals still bullish.


The Nasdaq is caught in a halfway house with bullish technicals and a relative advantage of the index against the S&P.


The Russell 2000 is...

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Digital Currencies

BDC's Crypto Corner

 

BDC’s Crypto Corner

By Biodieselchris

Hello fellow PSW-ers. I've been interested in cryptocurrencies (informally, "cryptos" or "coins") since 2011 when I first heard about Bitcoin, Since that time I've become somewhat of a subject matter expert and personal investor in Bitcoin and other alternative cryptocurrencies ("altcoins").

I've been posting comments about cryptos in Phil's daily post from time to time. Recently, Phil and I got on a call and he asked if I would like to run a blog on his site specifically about cryptos, which I thought was a great idea. My goal would be to educate members on what I know about how coins work, how I research coins (what I find interesting), how exactly one can invest (buy, hold, and sell) c...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



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Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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