Posts Tagged
‘ETF Digest’
by David Fry - July 13th, 2009 7:17 pm
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 13, 2009
Meredith Whitney, one of Wall Street’s new rock stars, has seen the light and in a “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” moment put a buy rating on Goldman Sachs saying, it’s a buy in a bear market. Who can blame her? The company runs the US economy and so many confirming and negative articles are now appearing. The latest came from Rolling Stone and it’s hard to argue with the objective analysis and conclusion unless you’re just a shill for Da Boyz. Does anyone care or notice? It’s not popular to be a Cassandra on Wall Street.
As I wrote subscribers over the weekend, the bullish bias is ever present. Investment managers and trading desks are looking for reasons to buy at all times. You get light volume in the summer and it doesn’t take much to stampede the herd.
That said, markets exploded higher after her buy recommendation causing a short squeeze relieving recent short-term oversold conditions. Volume was July-light while breadth was overwhelmingly positive.
The McClellan Summation Index didn’t bat an eye today and continues its descent.
…

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by David Fry - July 9th, 2009 6:36 pm
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 9, 2009
I’ll make this brief today as there are appointments to keep. Tomorrow marks the end of the week and there will be more to say then.
The highlights today were weakness in the dollar and feeble bounce in gold currently more attached to oil; Alcoa’s failure to hold last night’s gains; news that Goldman Sachs will exceed its record 2007 earnings; a comeback of sorts for banks and materials stocks; and more second round stimulus trial balloons aloft.
Volume was ultra light but breadth improved enough to move stocks from their short-term oversold conditions.
Meanwhile, the trusty McClellan Oscillator continues to fall reinforcing the notion that the top is in for stocks.
This is all we have time for today. It seems clear that investors are now lost between fears of a resumption of the bear market downtrend and hopes for green shoots. Earnings should prove inspiring to one side or the other.
I’ll be back with a more detailed report tomorrow.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD and USL.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
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by David Fry - July 9th, 2009 2:56 am
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 8, 2009
We had a lot more volume than we’ve seen recently. Short-term equity markets are much oversold while commodity markets continue to get hammered big time. The entire day can be summed up with just those two sentences.
But now we have earnings upon us and Alcoa is kicking things off with unremarkable results. Since they always have unique items in their earnings it’s often hard to judge their reports.
Below is the volume and breadth data with the former impressive while the latter continues its deterioration.
In the meantime it appears with hindsight that the falling McClellan Summation Index was tell predicting this downturn.

Markets are short-term oversold and could bounce at any time. Based on the McClellan Summation Index however, any rally could prove temporary. Now earnings are coming and Alcoa, despite losing around $5 million per day just to stay open, beat estimates. Bulls have bid the stock higher in after hours trading.
This behavior is what we’ve been witnessing for a long time—lower estimates to Armageddon levels and then beat. It becomes annoying after a while.
Nevertheless earnings are important and we’ve only just begun to see them roll out. Results can alter trends in a major way but today wasn’t pretty despite the late pop from those in the know.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, DBC, USL, GLD, EWA, EFA, EWJ and FXI.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
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by David Fry - July 7th, 2009 6:59 pm
MARKET COMMENT
Dave’s ETF Digest, July 7, 2009
I guess HAL has been deactivated and GS has lost this little memory unit. If you see it lying around, well hell, they’ll buy it from you no doubt. Or, worse, you might get thrown in the slammer since nobody, but nobody messes with the Da Boyz.
The green shoots have turned to pond scum as investors, currently sans HAL, don’t up from down. Volume is heavier on sell-offs while light on bullish days. In the meantime breadth data remains terrible.
The McClellan Summation Index continues to fall from high levels indicating the bull trend is over for awhile probably.
…

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by David Fry - June 25th, 2009 8:24 pm
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 25, 2009
Okay, sometimes it’s good to miss a couple of days. Everything and nothing has happened. Yesterday it was the amazingly boring and meandering Fed statement that had a little something for everybody. (How many “buts” can you stuff in this thing?) The bullish headline writers wrote many over the top gems claiming the recession is over per nuggets they gleaned.
Okay but not much happened really.
Today all the bad employment data was ignored with bulls focused on a few odd things. Bed Bath and Beyond “beat estimates” (folks need new towels and stuff. Or, was it the heavy expense cutting?) and economic growth, while still in the toilet hadn’t been plunged yet so to speak. Finally, some headline writers dubbed Bernanke a “rock star” as bulls hoped he would be reappointed.
Is that a good thing?
Impressively, volume picked up today as markets were short-term oversold and shorts remain easily squeezed. Breadth was quite positive. The hedgies and trading desks just continue to pick each other’s pockets as the games continue. And, after all, we are approaching the end of the month and bonuses need serious protection.
The McClellan Summation Index continues its decline. Now some have asked for the dates to be placed on the chart. That would entail adding another confusing chart to the mix and explaining it. Suffice it to say this is a “daily” chart and covers a year.
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by David Fry - June 16th, 2009 1:39 am
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 15, 2009
The only positive from today is Monday’s have proven to be good buying days of late. But that’s the only thing. Clearly some complacency (“the bottom’s in” and etc) combined with light volume (SPY traded only 180 million shares Friday) allowed markets to be pushed higher by those who could do it. Getting sucked in with them has always been the danger as the game often is to dump their accumulated stock to you once you step in.
But, hey, the week’s young and we still have plenty of time left for bulls to pump it while the news may constrain that provided how they spin it. Then there’s that quad witch extravaganza on Friday to keep everyone entertained.
Volume was still light today and breadth…well, it was ugly.
McClellan Summation Index is still overbought but starting to fade.
>
…

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February 12th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
AGBUYAn increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make AGCO a company to watch.
XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is a...
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February 11th, 2012 11:03 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by Tyler Durden.
The prophetic words of Antal Fekete in his now infamous 'essay' on Gold are as relevant now (perhaps more so) as they were when he first wrote them 15 years ago - especially as the Euro-zone migrates from lossening fiat-money to quasi-money (greek pharma bonds for instance). While summarizing this must-read discussion of mainstream economic orthodoxy's mis-teachings is impractical, his initial introduction sets the stage for what is to come: "The year 1971 was a milestone in the history of money and credit. Previously, in the world's most developed countries, money (and hence cred...
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February 11th, 2012 8:20 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
Damn. Two (MJ and Whitney) of the big 4 of the 80s gone – Madonna and Prince remain. Probably the most well known Star Spangled Banner ever…
Disclosure Notice
Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund's holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog
...
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February 11th, 2012 6:46 pm
It's Well Past Time for Plan Z
Courtesy of The Automatic Earth
Mario Draghi captured the utter ineptitude of him and every other Eurocrat out there when he said the following at today’s press conference in response to a question about a Greek exit: “To have a Plan B means defeat already. I am confident that all the pieces of this will fall in the proper places.”
Most 5-year old children in pre-school have already been told not to believe that they can always win and that “winning isn’t everything”, but Draghi & Co. still refuse to consider the possibility of failure even as it is staring them in the face. What’s really disturbing is that the stakes here are obviously much, much higher than they are o...
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February 11th, 2012 5:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
It's interesting to watch some of the terms bandied about in headline news. For example, the LA Times headline reads S&P says student loan debt could be next financial bubble.
Next? Could Be?
What with the word "next"? Also what's with the words "could be"? Without a doubt student loans are in a bubble and have been for many years. The source of the problem, as it always is with financial bubbles, is cheap money, loans to nearly anyone, and in the case of student loans, no way to discharge the debt, even in bankruptcy.
From the article:
"Student-loan debt has ballooned and m...
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February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...
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February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears
After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
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February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
...
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February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
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February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
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January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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