Posts Tagged ‘European banks’

European Banks Still on the Brink

European Banks Still on the Brink

european banksCourtesy of MIKE WHITNEY writing at CourterPunch 

The EU banking system is in big trouble. That’s why European Central Bank (ECB) head Jean-Claude Trichet continues to purchase government bonds and provide "unlimited funds" for underwater banks. It’s an effort to prevent a financial system meltdown that could wipe out bondholders and plunge the economy back into recession.

"We have the best track record on price stability over 11 1/2 years in Europe and among the legacy currencies,” Trichet recently boasted. “What we have done and what we do with the same purpose is to help restore an appropriate functioning of the monetary-policy transmission mechanism.”

Nonsense. EU banks and other financial institutions are presently holding more than 2 trillion euros of public and private debt from Greece, Spain and Portugal. All three countries are in deep distress and face sharp downgrades on their sovereign debt. The potential losses put large parts of the EU banking system at risk. Trichet knows this, which is why he continues to support the teetering system with "unlimited funds". It has nothing to do with restoring the "functioning of the monetary-policy transmission mechanism". That’s deliberately misleading. It is a straightforward bailout of the banks.

Imagine that you are deeply in debt, but the bank offers to lend you as much money as you need to keep you from bankruptcy. To help maintain appearances, the bank agrees to accept the worthless junk you’ve collected in your attic in exchange for multi-million dollar loans. Does the bank’s participation in this charade mean that you are not really broke after all? Does it increase the value of the garbage collateral you’ve exchanged for cash?

The ECB is providing billions of euros per week to maintain the illusion that the market is wrong about the true value of the bonds. But the market is not wrong, the ECB is wrong. The value of Greek bonds (for example) has dropped precipitously. They are worth less, which means the banks need to take a haircut and write down the losses. More liquidity merely hides the problem.

This is from Reuters:

"Despite the open-arms approach, outstanding ECB lending has fallen more than a third since the start of July to 592 billion euros…. Liquidity remains abundant though. Over 120 billion euros was deposited back at the ECB overnight, the latest figures show."

So, overnight…
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7 Out of 91 European Banks Fail Toothless (Read: Useless) Stress Tests

7 Out of 91 European Banks Fail Toothless (Read: Useless) Stress Tests

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

First the results.

NYT:

Seven of Europe’s 91 largest banks would struggle to survive an unexpected decline in economic growth or a sharp deterioration in the value of European government bonds, and will need to raise more capital, regulators said Friday in releasing results of closely watched bank stress tests.

Banks to flunk were Hypo Real Estate, a bank based in Munich that is already government-owned after a bailout, ATEBank of Greece and five Spanish savings banks.

Several other banks passed the test, but narrowly enough that they may also face market pressure to increase their reserves. That group included Postbank, one of Germany’s biggest publicly traded banks, which is 25 percent owned by Deutsche Bank.

Like our own stress tests last year, European regulators came up with a few different scenarios, one of which was supposed to mirror sovereign default. The problem being it doesn’t exactly do that. 

Business Week:

In the last scenario, banks will publish their estimated losses on sovereign debt held in their trading book as well as “additional impairment losses on the banking book” that they may suffer after a sovereign debt crisis, according to the document dated July 15.

Under accounting rules, banks have to adjust the value of sovereign bonds held in the trading book according to changes in market prices, said Konrad Becker, a financial analyst at Merck Finck & Co. in Munich. For government debt held in the banking book, lenders must write down their value only if there is serious doubt about a state’s ability to repay its debt in full or make interest payments, he said.

The sovereign-shock scenario doesn’t assume a European nation will default, said a person with knowledge of the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the information is private. Instead, it will assume that rising government-bond yields will push up borrowing costs, spurring defaults in the private sector that would lead to losses in lenders’ banking books, said the person.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard already called the tests toothless over at the Telegraph. I say that’s being kind.

Again, when we did the whole stress test thing last year the numbers were strange and scenarios incredibly optimistic. Since Treasury had to act sketchy about what they were up to,…
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European Banks Prepare For €1 Trillion Debt Rollover Tidal Wave

European Banks Prepare For €1 Trillion Debt Rollover Tidal Wave

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, courtesy of Clusterstock/Business Insider    

From The Telegraph:

European banks need to roll over €1 trillion (£877bn) of debt over the next two years at a much higher cost and in direct competition with hungry sovereign states, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

The bank has advised clients to prepare for chillier times as monetary tightening begins in the US and China, causing major spill-over effects in Europe.

Roughly €560bn of EU bank debt matures in 2010 and €540bn in 2011. The banks will have to roll over loans at a time when unprecedented bond issuance by governments worldwide risks saturating the debt markets. European states alone must raise €1.6 trillion this year.

Read more at The Telegraph>>

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Zero Hedge

CoLD WaR NuT JoB...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

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ValueWalk

After Impressive 85% Return In 2016, Hedge Fund Looks To Canadian Gold Producer, Small Banks

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Livermore Partners had a great year, up 85% in 2016! See their full 2016 letter to investors below. But first check out our exclusive interview with PM David Neuhauser on some of the hedge fund’s favorite small caps.

Also see

2016 Hedge Fund Letters Livermore Partners 3Q16 Partners Letter

Letter below

January 16th, 2017

To: Partners:

I’m happy to be writing our Quarterly letter and closing out Livermore’s best year on record. 2016 was without a doubt, volatile. Especially in terms of events causing sharp and sudden correct...



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Phil's Favorites

Fake News Police Arrive in Germany

Courtesy of Mish.

On behalf of Merkel-sponsored Russophobia, including threats of fines, Facebook rolls out fake-news filtering service to Germany.

Germany is to become the first country outside the US to benefit from Facebook’s crackdown on fake news as the social media group tries to control the proliferation of media hoaxes ahead of elections in the country this year.

The world’s largest social network is bringing its test of fake news filtering tools to Germany in the coming weeks after the spread of false stories such as one claiming Germany’s oldest church was set on fire by a mob of 1,000 pe...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil prices under pressure on doubts over output cuts (Reuters)

Oil prices were under pressure on Monday due to doubts that large oil producers will reduce production as promised and on expectations that U.S. production would increase again this year.

Shenzhen Stocks Sink Most in 10 Months in Sudden Afternoon Drop (Bloomberg)

Stocks in China’s second-largest equity market plunged the most in 10 months, underscoring the increasing fragility of the nation’s financial assets.

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 15, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

Bullish action continues as the market alternates between periods of rallying with periods of quiet consolidation.  This past week was a period of the latter.  It was a relatively quiet week other than a bit of a selloff right at the open Thursday.  Friday we saw some of the major U.S. banks report. There were a lot of Federal Reserve speakers trotted out – but markets are in more of a Trump Trance right now so most of it was ignored.  Still no close on the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 20K, although that level was tickled Monday.

That said we have seen a rotation from the winners of November & December (S&P 500 + Russell 2000), into areas that lagged ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Regional banks; Breakout test in play, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Over the past 60-days, financial stocks have done well. Over the past 60-days, regional banks have been stellar performers, out producing larger banks and the broad market, by a large percentage. From a risk on stock perspective, seeing large and regional banks do well, has historically been a positive sign.

Below looks at regional bank ETF (KRE)_

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

K...



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Members' Corner

How To Poop On A Date?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Back for a brief respite, it's "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday in the Loo". Our last episode The Best Thing To Happen To Pooping, Since Your Butt, laid down a historical perspective.  

This week in How To Poop on a Date? we are graced with a delicate shituation: when your finally back at her place, snuggling in for a little "brown chicken brown cow" and you get hit with "Love Potion #2".  Oh what to do...


...

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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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