Posts Tagged ‘EUR/USD’

Jim Rogers: “I Am Buying Gold For A Relief Rally” But All Fiat Currencies Are Doomed

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Coins in a Cash Box

On one hand you have BNP revising their mid-term EURUSD forecast to 0.98, on the other you have such pessimists as Jim Rogers saying to buy the Euro. Who to trust anymore? Granted, Rogers’ thesis is only predicated on a a relief rally, pretty much the same as what we suggested when we saw the Goldman downgrade of the EURUSD, and immediately beckoned readers to get right back in. We consider the +50,000 pips picked in the ensuing week a direct gift from god (or at least his favorite worker). At this point the relief rally has likely fizzled, and the direction now is indeed down, at least until the next time the CFTC notes the net EUR shorts have hit a fresh record. Back to Rogers: in the long-term, Jim is just as bearish as always: "The European governments are not getting their act together, not at all. All paper money is flawed, nearly every currency in the world."

Rogers on European credibility: "If Greece went bankrupt it would send the signal to the world, and to the rest of Europe – ok, we’re not going to let people lie about their finance anymore, we are not going to let them spend money they don’t have, we are going to run a tight ship. That means the euro would be an extremely sound currency, it would the old Deutsche Mark." On Keynesianism: "You can’t keep spending money you don’t have because eventually the whole thing collapse in a house of cards." On the transition to reality: "I am not suggesting it is going to be a good time, don’t get me wrong. But if you wait 5 years from now, 10 years from now, when there is nothing you can do, and the whole system collapses, then you have real chaos in the streets, then you have Greece never recovering. In the US we have had states go bankrupt, cities go bankrupt, counties go bankrupt. It didn’t end the US, it didn’t end the US dollar." And on the flaws of our political system, which are just as applicable to our own president: "Greece is just trying to get through the next election, I am trying to figure out what’s good for country, what’s good for the world, what’s good for Europe, what’s good for the financial system."


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EUR/USD: What Moves You?

EUR/USD: What Moves You?

It’s not the news that creates forex market trends — it’s how traders interpret the news.

Courtesy of EWI’s Vadim Pokhlebkin

What moves currency markets? "The news" is how most forex traders would undoubtedly answer. Economic, political, you name it — events around the world are almost universally believed to shape trends in currencies.

A January 14 news story, for example, was high up on the roster of events that supposedly have a major impact on the euro-dollar exchange rate. That morning, the European Central Bank announced it was leaving the "interest rate unchanged at the record low of 1% for an eighth successive month." (FT.com)

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar after the news. But could it have rallied instead? You bet. In fact, traditional forex analysis says it should have. Here’s why.

Analysts always say that the higher a country’s interest rates, the more attractive its assets are to foreign investors — and, in turn, the stronger its currency. Well, U.S. interest rates are now at 0-.25% and in Europe, at 1%, they are 3 to 4 times higher. Isn’t that wildly bullish for the EUR? Apparently not, and wait till you hear why — because in today’s announcement ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet warned that European recovery would be “bumpy.” Ha!

By no means is this the first time a supposedly bullish event failed to lift the market. On June 6, 2007, for example, the ECB raised interest rates. Bullish, right? But the euro didn’t gain that day, either — the U.S. dollar did.

Watch forex markets with these "inconsistencies" in mind and you’ll see them often. In time you realize that it’s not news that creates market trends — it’s how traders interpret the news. That’s a subtle — but hugely important — distinction.

So the real question becomes: What determines how traders interpret the news? The Elliott Wave Principle answers that question head-on: social mood — i.e., how they collectively feel. Currency traders in a bullish mood disregard bad news and buy, leaving it to analysts to "explain" why. Bearishly-biased traders find "reasons" to sell even after the rosiest of economic reports.

If you know traders’ bias, you know the trend. How do you know? Watch Elliott wave patterns in forex charts – it’s reflected in there, on all time frames.

Today, the EUR/USD stands well below its November peak
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DGDF?

DGDF?dollar

Courtesy of Macro Man

Is the dollar going down forever? Well, to paraphrase Benjamin Franklin, nothing is forever except death and taxes, but it certainly seems that the DGDF crowd is having their day (week? month? quarter?) in the sun.

The normative question of whether the dollar should go down "forever" is an emotive one; Macro Man is generally sceptical of such arguments, particularly in the current context when the US current acccount deficit (usual source of DGDF $ bearishness) is eminently reasonable by the standards of the past decade or so. Moreover, a number of the currencies that have performed best against the buck recently (here’s lookin’ at you, NZD and ZAR!) haven’t exactly been paragons of balance of payment virtue themselves.

However, while market focus is usually (and justifiably) on the flow of currency movements (i.e., portfolio flow versus the US need to finance an ongoing c/a deficit), it seems as if the current bout of dollar weakness may have more to do with a stock adjustment…i.e., Asian and Middles East CBs reducing the share of dollars in the reserve bounties that they’ve accumulated over the past year or so.

Throw in a step-shift in the perceived equilibrium level of USD/JPY, thanks to DPJ laissez-faire, add a dash of flow recycling from Asian CBs standing in the way of overdue currency appreciation (so what else is new?) , and throw in a pinch of dollar-negative seasonality, and these are the things of which market trends are made.

EUR/USD has broken up to new highs for the year, courtesy of both public and private-sector flow. Near-term resistance lies at last December’s high of 1.4719 and the Sep ’08 high of 1.4866; above those levels, there’s quite a bit of fresh air.

The breakout was confirmed, or indeed foreshadowed, by therally in precious metals a few weeks ago. Gold is not far below its nominal high of 1032 (though obviously well below its real high), but there appears to be more near-term upside in silver, which has broken and held the key $16 level.

There are still a few holes in the DGDF story, however, particularly if it’s one predicated on a cyclical rebound. Base metals have been taken to the smelter recently (boom,


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Wanted: A Soaring Dollar

Wanted: A Soaring Dollar

soaring dollarCourtesy of Tim Knight at Slope of Hope

The snare drum you hear in the background is the musical prelude to a big shift in currencies. If, as I anticipate, the EUR/USD starts to tumble (while, naturally, the dollar soars), we’ll have everything we need for equities to start falling to pieces.

One of the charts from EWI’s Short-Term Update, shown below, tells the story superbly. Notice how the slope (err, not "Slope" slope, but the regular slope), represented by the series of diagonal lines, gets decreasingly steep. This implies to me a tipping point that has either taken place or will take place in the near future.

0831-euro 

I would also add that today is the first day in a while that the big profits that showed up in my account at the opening bell stuck around for the entire day. The only short position I closed was FXP, early in the morning; otherwise, I’m still short virtually across the board.

I’ll probably do a post later tonight. I need to – what else? – catch up on my charts.

 


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Carillion Q&A: The consequences of collapse and what the government should do next

 

Carillion Q&A: The consequences of collapse and what the government should do next

Courtesy of John Colley, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

Construction giant Carillion has gone into liquidation. The UK’s second-largest construction firm was one of the government’s biggest contractors, involved in huge infrastructure projects like the HS2 rail link and the Royal Liverpool University Hospital. It also provides services across the public sector such as running libraries, schools and prisons. Here’s what you need to know about Carillion’s collapse.

Why did the government keep placing...



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ValueWalk

Nebraska Furniture Mart in the 1980s

By The Acquirer's Multiple. Originally published at ValueWalk.

little gem of a 1980s NBC News story about Rose Blumkin, better known to folks in Omaha as “Mrs. B.”. Rose Blumkin apparently was a fixture in Omaha, and ran a HUGE furniture store in Nebraska. Please don’t confuse Mrs. Blumkin with that dirty word “BLUMPKIN”. That’s not nice.

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The post Nebraska Furniture Mart in the 1980s appeared first on ...



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Zero Hedge

North And South Korea Agree To Form Joint Team, Will March Together At Olympic Opening Ceremony

 

North And South Korea Agree To Form Joint Team, Will March Together At Olympic Opening Ceremony

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

In a decision that Yonhap called an "unprecedented breakthrough", North and South Korea have agreed to form their first joint Olympic team and will march together under a unified flag during the opening ceremony. The two Koreas agreed to form a joint women's ice hockey team to take part in the Winter Olympics to be held February 9-25 in Pyeongchang, the two ...



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Digital Currencies

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

 

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

Courtesy of 

Over the summer, I reviewed Steven Johnson’s book about innovation, called The Invention of Air. Johnson shows us how a simple insight by one of the least technically gifted scientists in history led to a massive chain reaction of human understanding about the world we live in and how it truly works.

If you missed my synopsis, it’s here.

...



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Insider Scoop

5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Goldman Sachs raised Groupon Inc (NASDAQ: GRPN) price target from $4.70 to $5.40. Groupon shares closed at $5.03 on Tuesday.
  • Barclays boosted the price target for Pure Storage Inc (NYSE: PSTG) from $19 to $22. Pure Storage shares closed at $16.16 on Tuesday.
  • Stifel increased the price target for Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) from $161 to $184. Deere shares closed at $167.54 on Tuesday.
  • Mizuho raised the price target on QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ: ...


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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals...



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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

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Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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