Wednesday Worries – Yentervention, Euro Style
by Phil - February 8th, 2012 5:16 am
78.50 on the Dollar!
The Yen finally got back to 77 and EUR/CHF back to 1.21 so my theory that the BOJ has given up on the Dollar and moved to boosting the Euro is playing out nicely.
This does not make me more bullish (expecting falling Dollar to boost the markets) because, in the grand scheme of things, this is kind of like now there are two kids building a sand wall on the beach instead of one – sure it will last longer than the wall just one kid was building but, eventually, the tide will get it anyway or, as Jimi Hendrix said more poetically: "Castles made of sand, fall in the sea, eventually."
Once you start messing around with Forex markets, you are messing with major macro forces that are hard to control. Japanese banks have $7.5Tn of Japanese bonds at 1% – what happens to the value of those bonds if the BOJ does push the Yen down 10%? Who takes that $750Bn hit? What if rates go up to 2% – what's the value of the bonds then? Who will bail out the Japanese Banks when they have a multi-Trillion Dollar (several hundred Trillion Yen) hole in their balance sheets? Do Japanese spreadsheets even have room for Quadrillions? They are going to need it!
Then there's this Bloomberg article on the Central Banks, who have doubled their balance sheets since 2006 to $13.2Tn but, magically, have caused no inflation (according to Ben Bernanke – not according to people who actually buy food and stuff). China is now sitting on $4.5Tn of other people's TBills (mostly ours) and that's up $1.5Tn in a year. The ECB is right behind them with $3.6Tn and another $1Tn supposedly coming in the next EFSF round and the Fed has $2.9Tn plus whatever nonsense they are running off book.
So, how is it that WE are the bad currency here? If the Dollar is a problem, then China, who's GDP is only about $8Tn (optimistically, possibly $5.5Tn depending on who's measuring) is almost as insane as Japanese bankers and maybe more so as they are betting on our country's ability to pay and maintain the value of the Dollar (already a fail, right?). I suppose no one can ever recognize losses and just carry more and more junk…
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DiggJobs Report Drives Heavy Trading Traffic In Ford, General Motors Options
by Option Review - February 3rd, 2012 1:42 pm
Today’s tickers: F, GM, MAS & GILD
Options commentary to resume on Thursday February 9th.
F - Ford Motor Co. – The better-than-expected jobs number out this morning revved up investor appetite for automobile stocks, driving shares in Ford Motor Co. up 4.0% to $12.75. Call options on the U.S. automaker are flying off the shelves, with nearly 5 calls in play on the stock for each single put option traded. The single-largest transaction in Ford options appears to be a bull call spread that yields maximum possible profits if the price of the underlying rallies nearly 20.0% during the next few months to expiration. It looks like one trader purchased a 30,000-lot April $14/$15 call spread for a net premium of $0.15 per contract. The position may be profitable at expiration if shares in Ford Motor Co. climb 11.0% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $14.15. Maximum potential profits of $0.85 per contract are available on the spread should shares in the auto manufacturer surge 17.6% to exceed $15.00 by expiration. Overall options volume on Ford is up above 175,000 contracts just before 1:00 p.m. ET.
GM - General Motors Co. – GM’s shares are outperforming fellow U.S. automaker, Ford Motor Co., this afternoon, with the stock trading 8.4% higher on the session at $26.35 as of 12:55 p.m. in New York. Optimism spurred by this morning’s stronger-than-expected jobs report was followed by greater-than-usual options action in the name. A debit put spread in the March expiry, which may be an outright bearish bet…
Friday Follies – No Jobs but Hey, Look at Facebook!
by Phil - February 3rd, 2012 8:19 am
Distractions.
That's all we have lately. Greece's silly $171Bn loan is meant to distract us from Europe's $17Tn debt hole and the US continues to borrow $171Bn PER MONTH to cover it's deficit and we don't even talk about Japan as the debt climbs over 220% of their rapidly declining GDP and who knows what's going on in China but, generally, when you have double-digit declines in home prices on a monthly basis – there's going to be a problem down the road.
This may be my last bearish post before drinking the technical Kool-Aid this weekend and we've already selected 5 trades for our Members that will make 200-500% if the market keeps moving forward and there are still plenty of stocks we can make a lovely Buy List out of if this rally has legs – especially the way we like to bet, since our hedges allow us to make very nice returns, as long as we simply hold our current levels.
There's the rub though – are the current levels sustainable? The nice thing about consolidations like the one we've been having this year is that they firm up a floor and give us a very obvious exit point on the way down so we can move some of that sideline cash into play – as long as we hold 12,500 on the Dow and 1,300 on the S&P and 2,800 on the Nasdaq – pretty simple strategy, right?
Notice the 2nd row has our major indices priced in Euros and our third priced in Yen. My main issue has been that we've been much weaker than it seemed as the Dollar's relentless decline masked a downturn in the inflation-adjusted price of our stocks (and the weak Dollar also serves to inflate revenues reported by multinational companies) but, at the moment, we're at our breakout levels by any measure so we may as well go with the flow until we see a proper reversal.
First we need to get past our NFP report at 8:30 of course. I'm expecting a miss but will the market even care or will that just mean Uncle Ben has an excuse to pump up the QE according to their new "formula"?
Keep in mind that what Bernanke said last week regarding the Fed's system for determining policy boils down to – As long…
Monday – Mubarak’s Mood May Move Morning Markets
by Phil - January 31st, 2011 8:21 am
Is it safe?
I asked that question at the end of November in "Timid Tuesday – Is It Safe" and here we are, 60 days later and up 7.5% and, on the whole, feeling less safe than we did back then, when the Market Oracle and I seemed to be the only people concerned global inflation and sovereign default risks rising rapidly. Although we were playing the market bullishly, with our aggressive $10,000 Virtual Portfolio (and make sure you check out our brand new $25,000 Virtual Portfolio that begins today with a $100,000 goal by December 31st) we decided to try to take from $26,000 to $50,000 by Jan 21st (we only made $35,000), our Breakout Defense Plays (5,000% in 5 Trades or Less) and our Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges – it was with one hand on the exit door at all times. As I said at the close of Timid Tuesday’s article: "This house of cards is teetering folks – please be careful out there!"
That was 60 days ago. We’re a lot older now and have learned a lot about the World since then. We learned that China, Japan and the IMF are all ready, willing and able to buy the bonds of various EU nations. We learned that the Dollar can still fall 5% (was 81.44 on November 30th) further down despite Europe’s very obvious problems and Japan’s MASSIVE 200% Debt to GDP ratio. We learned that Uncle Ben will never stop printing money (until forced) and we learned that commodities can rise much faster than even our aggressive "Secret Santa" plays anticipated, with every one of our hedges (XHB, XLE, DBA and XLF) already over our year-end targets, all on track for gains well over 100%.
After watching our Alpha 2 pattern break (as I predicted it would on Monday morning) for the week, we went a lot more bearish on Thursday when I said in that morning post:
Keep in mind that gold and silver are our defensive plays. In Member Chat yesterday, Jromeha mentioned he’s 80% in cash and 85% short the market on the 20% in play and I said I thought that was an excellent way to play what I felt was a blow-off top after the Fed. We added 2 disaster hedges yesterday, a TZA spread that pays 500% if we get to $17 by
…
Options Strategists Take the Wheel at Ford Motor Co.
by Option Review - December 21st, 2010 4:10 pm
Today’s tickers: F, NKE, TSRA, PCX, STI, CSCO & SNDK
F - Ford Motor Co. – A couple of large-volume spreads initiated in longer-dated call and put options on the automaker caught our eye this afternoon. Shares in Ford Motor Company increased 0.90% this afternoon to stand at $17.00 in the final minutes of the trading day. It looks like one bullish player employed the use of a debit call spread in the April 2011 contract while a more cautious investor utilized a ratio put spread expiring in June of 2011. The options optimist picked up 10,000 calls at the April 2011 $17 strike for a premium of $1.25 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher April 2011 $20 strike at a premium of $0.29 apiece, in order to position for continued bullish movement in the price of the car manufacturer’s shares. The trader paid a net premium of $0.96 per contract for the spread, and is positioned to make money should Ford’s shares rally another 5.6% over the current price of $17.00 to exceed the effective breakeven point at $17.96 by expiration day in April. Maximum potential profits of $2.04 per contract are available to the call-spreader if Ford’s shares jump 17.6% to first surpass the current 52-week high of $17.42 on the stock, and ultimately trade above $20.00 ahead of expiration. Further along in the June 2011 contract, another strategist dabbled in put options, perhaps as a way to hedge a long position in the underlying shares through the first half of 2011, or alternatively to bet on a pullback in Ford’s shares. It looks like the investor picked up 12,500 puts at the June $17 strike at a premium of $1.63 each, and sold 25,000 puts at the lower June 2011 $14 strike for a premium of $0.54 a-pop. The trader paid a net $0.55 per contract for the ratio spread and starts making money if Ford’s shares slip beneath the effective breakeven price of $16.45 ahead of June expiration. The investor may walk away with maximum potential profits of $2.45 per contract in the event that the automaker’s shares plunge 17.6% to settle at $14.00 at expiration day. Selling twice…
Put Sellers See Bright Future for Ford Shares in 2011
by Option Review - December 9th, 2010 4:54 pm
Today’s tickers: F, MSFT, ZQK, LULU, EK, CNO & SFD
F - Ford Motor Co. – The automaker’s shares are up 0.55% at $16.78 heading into the close this afternoon after earlier rising as much as 0.95% to an intraday high of $16.85. Bullish options traders expecting Ford’s shares to continue to rally higher over the next six months sold in-the-money put options in the June 2011 contract today. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch reiterated their ‘buy’ rating on the stock, upped their target share price on Ford Motor Co. to $24.00 from $20.00, and revised higher earnings estimates for 2011 and 2012 for the automaker. Optimistic options investors looked to the June 2011 $17 strike to sell some 16,000 in-the-money puts to receive premium of $1.92 per contract. Put sellers keep the hefty chunk of change received on the transaction as long as Ford’s shares exceed $17.00 ahead of expiration day next year. The sale of the contracts suggests traders are more than happy to have shares of the underlying stock put to them at an effective price of $15.08 each should shares fail to rally sufficiently, and the put options trade in-the-money at expiration.
MSFT - Microsoft Corp. – Bullish risk reversals initiated using Microsoft call and put options expiring in July 2011 are signs of investor optimism on the software company. Microsoft’s shares started out the session in the black but have slipped lower in the final hour of trading, losing 0.70% to stand at $27.04 as of 3:10 pm. One options strategist is positioning for shares in MSFT to rebound sharply ahead of July expiration by selling a total of 15,000 puts at the July 2011 $23 strike for a premium of $0.83 each, in order to buy the same number of calls at the higher July 2011 $30 strike at a premium of $0.97 apiece. The net cost of the risk reversal amounts to $0.14 per contract, providing relatively cheap upside exposure should Microsoft’s shares take off in 2011. Shares of the…
Bulls Take the Wheel, Initiate Recovery Plays Using Ford Options
by Option Review - November 23rd, 2010 4:06 pm
Today’s tickers: F, TOL, BRCD, LOW, NUAN, WAG & IFF
F - Ford Motor Co. – The automaker’s shares edged 2.45% lower this afternoon to $15.80, but investors expecting to see Ford rebound and rally in the next few months initiated bullish plays using put and call options expiring in February 2011. It looks like one trader purchased a bull call spread, while another investor put on a bullish risk reversal. The call spreader picked up 5,000 contracts at the February 2011 $16 strike for a premium of $1.24 each, and sold the same number of calls at the higher February 2011 $20 strike for a premium of $0.20 apiece. Net premium paid to establish the spread amounts to $1.04 per contract. Thus, the responsible party is prepared to make money should shares in Ford Motor Co. surge 7.85% over the current price of $15.80 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $17.04 by February expiration. The call-spreader could end up walking away with maximum potential profits of $2.96 per contract if Ford’s shares jump 26.6% to trade above $20.00 by expiration day next year. The other bullish play in the February 2011 contract appears to be the work of an investor selling 1,990 February 2011 $15 strike puts at a premium of $0.69 each in order to purchase the same number of February 2011 $18 strike calls for a premium of $0.50 a-pop. The transaction results in a net credit of $0.19 per contract, which the investor keeps as long as shares in Ford exceed $15.00 through expiration. Additional profits start to accrue for the trader should shares rally 13.9% to trade above $18.00 before the contracts expire. The net credit received by the investor provides limited downside protection should shares continue to head south. The investor will face losses, however, if Ford’s shares trade below the effective breakeven price of $14.81 in the next few months to expiration.…
Options Feeding Frenzy Gains Momentum as Shares in Ford Motor Co. Hit 8-Year High
by Option Review - November 15th, 2010 4:50 pm
Today’s tickers: F, ALU, WMB, TLCR, PG & LNG
F - Ford Motor Co. – The automaker’s shares jumped 6.80% during the session to an intraday high of $17.41, the highest recorded share price for Ford Motor Co. since June 3, 2002. Options on Ford are extremely well trafficked today with shares surging to new heights and the market eagerly awaiting rival General Motors Company’s public stock offering. More than 2.2 call options are changing hands on the stock for each single put in play out of the more than 704,650 contracts exchanged on the automobile maker as of 3:45 pm in New York. Nearer-term call options are the most active, with volume in November $17 strike calls exceeding 70,800 lots ahead of the closing, bell versus previously existing open interest of 45,757 contracts at that strike. The majority of those in-the-money call options were purchased for an average premium of $0.46 apiece. Call buyers at this strike make money if Ford’s shares exceed $17.46 ahead of expiration on Friday. Buying interest spread all the way up to the sky-high November $20 and $21 strikes. More than 5,000 of the November $20 strike calls were picked up for an average premium of $0.03 a-pop. The premium on these contracts will continue to rise as long as Ford’s shares head higher in the next 4 trading sessions, and may provide call buyers the opportunity to bank handsome profits ahead of expiration day. The December $20 strike calls were even more popular, with some 17,000 lots purchased at an average premium of $0.15 each. Bullish players were also seen selling in- and out-of-the-money put options across multiple expiries. Near-term November $16 strike puts were the most heavily populated as upwards of 53,250 contracts changed hands by 3:50 pm. Strong demand for the automaker’s option contracts, GM’s impending IPO and the sharp shift in Ford’s share price today helped lift the overall reading of options implied volatility on the stock 9.4% to 45.92% late in the…
H&R Block Put Options in Play as Shares Drop
by Option Review - October 14th, 2010 5:59 pm
Today’s tickers: HRB, XRT, GRMN, HAL, F, MWW & BK
HRB - H&R Block, Inc. – Investors are bulking up on H&R Block put options this afternoon following reports the provider of tax services acquired tax-preparation firm 2SS Holdings for $287 million in cash. HRB’s shares dropped like a rock today, falling as much as 10.445% during the session to hit an intraday low of $12.26. Options traders basically ignored the existence of H&R Block calls and instead focused their efforts on buying up bearish put contracts across several expiries. More than 7.95 put options changed hands on HRB for each single call option in play on the stock as of 3:15 p.m. in New York trading. The sharp increase in demand for put options and the rapid descent in the price of the underlying shares fueled a 33.3% rise in the overall reading of options implied volatility on the stock to 70.39% late in the trading day. Pessimistic players picked up 5,600 now in-the-money puts at the October $12.5 strike for an average premium of $0.24 each. These contracts expire tomorrow, but investors may make money if HRB’s shares trade below the average breakeven price of $12.26 ahead of expiration. Put volume is most significant in the November contract. It looks like investors picked up 9,300 puts at the November $10 strike at a premium of $0.38 each, coveted another 10,300 contracts at the November $11 strike for premium of $0.57 apiece, and purchased approximately 2,500 puts at the November $12 strike for a premium of $0.81 a-pop. Volume in put options generated at each of the strikes described outweighs previously existing open interest at each one many times over. Put players may be scrambling to secure downside protection on existing positions in the underlying shares, or could be enacting outright bearish bets on the stock. HRB’s shares are down 9.50% at $12.39 with 35 minutes remaining in the trading session.…
Investors Bumps Up Bullish Stance on Ford Motor Co.
by Option Review - August 2nd, 2010 4:13 pm
Today’s tickers: F, GNW, VRSN & OCR
F – Ford Motor Co. – A massive bullish transaction involving 300,000 call options on the auto manufacturer today indicates one big player is increasingly optimistic that Ford’s shares are likely to stay their upward trajectory through September expiration. The price of the auto maker’s shares rallied 2.90% to $13.14 by 12:30 pm ET on news Chinese automaker, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., completed its purchase of Volvo Cars from Ford by shelling out $1.3 billion in cash and issuing a $200 million note for the acquisition. Ford’s credit rating was also raised two levels by Standard & Poor’s today on optimism the firm will remain profitable, and due to improved investor and consumer perception of the Dearborn, MI-based company. The enormous bullish trade on Ford appears to be the work of an investor booking profits by first selling a previously established long call position, and next initiating a fresh more-bullish stance on the stock. It appears the investor originally purchased 150,000 calls at the September $12 strike for an average premium of $0.41 each back on July 9, 2010, when Ford’s shares closed at $10.85. The subsequent rally in the price of the underlying stock boosted premium on the September $12 strike calls, allowing the trader to sell all 150,000 now in-the-money contracts at an average premium of $1.40 apiece. Net profits on the sale of the call options amounts to $0.99 per contract. Next the investor purchased 150,000 fresh in-the-money calls at the September $13 strike for an average premium of $0.75 per contract. Profits start to accumulate on the new position if Ford’s shares rally another 4.65% over the current price of $13.14 to surpass the effective breakeven point to the upside at $13.75 by expiration day next month.
GNW – Genworth Financial, Inc. – A three-legged bullish options combination play initiated on the insurance company today suggests one strategist expects Genworth’s shares to rally significantly ahead of expiration day in December. GNW’s shares inched up during morning trading, but later slipped 0.30% lower to stand at $13.54 by 12:50 pm ET. The investor appears to have sold put options in order to offset the cost of buying a debit call spread. To establish the spread the trader sold 4,000 puts at the December $12 strike for an average premium of $1.04 each, purchased 4,000 calls at the December…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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