Posts Tagged ‘Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’

Fed Jawboning And Market Performance

Is there a tendency for the market to act in a particular way around the Fed Chairman’s testimony to Congress?  Welcome to Jason, who answers this question in the following piece. – Ilene

Fed Jawboning And Market Performance

Courtesy of Jason Goepfert at Sentiment’s Edge 

Here’s a reprint of something we discussed on the main site earlier this year.  It’s as relevant now as it was in February…

Mr. Bernanke is now scheduled to speak before Congress in the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.

We’ve discussed this event several times over the years, but it’s worth touching on again, as we have seen some pretty consistent market action surrounding these speeches.

The day before the Fed Chair’s testimony to Congress, the S&P 500 has been up nearly 70% of the time.  But the day of the prepared remarks, it was up 44% of the time, and the day after it was up only 28% of the time (7 out of 25 occurrences).

For some reason, these meetings have an uncanny tendency to occur very near market inflection points, with the market moving substantially in the other direction from the move preceding the testimony.  The chart below highlights these meetings (the gray vertical lines) superimposed on a chart of the S&P 500.

 
Fed Chair = Market Timer

If the S&P 500 was negative over the month prior to the testimony, then the month following the meeting it was up 8 out of 10 times with an average return of a respectable +2.3%, though the risk/reward over the next month was about evenly distributed (-3.8% to +3.9%).

However, if the S&P was positive heading into the meeting, then the following month also showed a positive return only 13% of the time (2 out of 15 instances) and an average return of -2.8%.  The risk/reward was extremely skewed to the downside (-5.9% to +1.6%).  The last 12 occurrences, dating back to 1998, were all negative.

 


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At Long Last – Fed Explains Exit Strategy

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At Long Last – Fed Explains Exit Strategy

Fed's Exit PlanCourtesy of Mish

After months of hemming and hawing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has finally detailed The Fed’s Exit Strategy in an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal.

The depth and breadth of the global recession has required a highly accommodative monetary policy. Since the onset of the financial crisis nearly two years ago, the Federal Reserve has reduced the interest-rate target for overnight lending between banks (the federal-funds rate) nearly to zero. We have also greatly expanded the size of the Fed’s balance sheet through purchases of longer-term securities and through targeted lending programs aimed at restarting the flow of credit.

My colleagues and I believe that accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an extended period. At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road. The Federal Open Market Committee, which is responsible for setting U.S. monetary policy, has devoted considerable time to issues relating to an exit strategy. We are confident we have the necessary tools to withdraw policy accommodation, when that becomes appropriate, in a smooth and timely manner.

The exit strategy is closely tied to the management of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. When the Fed makes loans or acquires securities, the funds enter the banking system and ultimately appear in the reserve accounts held at the Fed by banks and other depository institutions. These reserve balances now total about $800 billion, much more than normal. And given the current economic conditions, banks have generally held their reserves as balances at the Fed.

But as the economy recovers, banks should find more opportunities to lend out their reserves. That would produce faster growth in broad money (for example, M1 or M2) and easier credit conditions, which could ultimately result in inflationary pressures—unless we adopt countervailing policy measures. When the time comes to tighten monetary policy, we must either eliminate these large reserve balances or, if they remain, neutralize any potential undesired effects on the economy.

Bernanke Explains Fed Tools

The tools Bernanke mention in the article are:

Paying interest on reserves. This was authorized by Congress in 2008. Supposedly this was going to put a floor on interest rates at 2%.


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Bernanke Suffers From Selective Memory Loss

Courtesy of Mish

Bernanke Suffers From Selective Memory Loss; Paulson Calls Bank of America "Turd in the Punchbowl"

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben BernankeFed chairman Ben Bernanke’s memory seems to be failing at an amazingly convenient time, for Bernanke. Please consider Bernanke Blasted in House.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faced open hostility from lawmakers who barraged him during a Congressional hearing over his handling of the financial crisis and the central bank’s role in reshaping the banking system.

Setting aside the deferential tone usually reserved for Fed chairmen, members of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform repeatedly interrupted Mr. Bernanke at Thursday’s hearing to review the Fed’s role in engineering a government aid package for Bank of America Corp. The lawmakers pored over internal Fed emails subpoenaed by the committee and projected on a screen in the hearing room.

Much of the heat focused on the Fed’s part in pushing Bank of America to complete its acquisition of Merrill Lynch in January. House members on both sides grilled Mr. Bernanke on whether he threatened to force out Bank of America Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis. They accused him of inconsistencies in his statements and of keeping information from other agencies.

The biggest point of contention was over whether Mr. Bernanke threatened to oust Bank of America CEO Mr. Lewis. Bank of America approached top U.S. officials in mid-December about abandoning its deal to buy Merrill Lynch.

Mr. Bernanke defended the Fed’s actions, saying the central bank acted with the "highest integrity" in the negotiations with Bank of America. "I did not tell Bank of America’s management that the Federal Reserve would take action against the board or management," Mr. Bernanke said, adding that the decisions were "taken under highly unusual circumstances in the face of grave threats to our financial system and our economy."

Lawmakers pointed to a Dec. 20 email written by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker. One of a series unearthed by the panel, the email recounts a conversation between Messrs. Lacker and Bernanke in which the Fed chief planned to tell Bank of America that "management is gone," if they quashed the deal and later needed more government aid, wrote Mr. Lacker.

Pressed on the issue, Mr. Bernanke said he didn’t make such a comment to Mr. Lewis and didn’t remember that part of the conversation with Mr. Lacker.

Rep. Dan Burton, (R., Ind.), a


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Zero Hedge

As Bitcoin Surges To New Record Highs, 5 Lessons For Every Crypto Investor

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Once again the stories of the death of Bitcoin appear to greatly exaggerated.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Overnight Asian demand sent the cyrptocurrency to a new record high at $17,934 (Bitstamp).

...



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Insider Scoop

Attention Contrarians: This Analyst Says JD.com Set Up Could Be In Your Favor

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related JD Want Some Exposure To China's Growth? Stifel Says Buy JD Or Alibaba Q3 13F Roundup: How Buffett...

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Biotech

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Delivering genetic material is a key challenge in gene therapy. Invitation image created by Kstudio, CC BY

If you’ve ever bought a new iPhone, you’ve experienced good packaging.

The way the lid slowly separates from the box. The pull...



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Chart School

Rallies Slow As Semiconductor Selling Eases

Courtesy of Declan

Markets experienced early gains but gave them back by the close of business. Given the mini-rally of the past five days, some of the indices are looking vulnerable to a new round of selling.

The S&P finished with a narrow inverted hammer on low volume but at new highs. A move back to the newly accelerated channel is looking favored.
 


The Nasdaq also finished with a narrow doji but wasn't able to make new highs.  It's already close to one channel but looks more likely to reach down to th...



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Digital Currencies

Not A Bubble?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Meet The Crypto Company - up almost 20,000% since inception in September...

To a market cap of over $12.6 billion...

Grant's Interest Rate Observer drew the world's attention to this 'company' yesterday.....



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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