Posts Tagged ‘Fibozachi’

End of the Bull: Primary Trend Shifts as Markets Shatter

Courtesy of Fibozachi.com

While technical analysts and traders have numerous techniques for determining trends, the most basic method is the tracking of higher highs and higher lows (bullish trends), or lower highs and lower lows (bearish trends).  Tuesday’s relentless sell-off across US equity markets marked an undeniable end to the continuous series of higher lows that had been intact since July 2009.  With Tuesday’s close below 1,044.50 on the S&P 500 Cash, ‘bulltards‘ can no longer claim that the primary trend of equities remains bullish.

Traders are going to have their work cut out for them in the days and weeks ahead as a plethora of support levels remain scattered between the levels of 950 – 1,030.  Though equities appear poised for downside acceleration into Q3, remaining short may prove difficult in days ahead for most as increased volatility, erratic HFT algos and near-record market internal readings combine to create yo-yo-like equity markets.  Tuesday’s Advance / Decline line for the S&P 500 clocked in at -498, with only Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) closing higher.  As a company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets orthopaedic reconstructive implants, dental implants, spinal implants, trauma products and related surgical products … could GETCO be anticipating a large order from Mr. Market for a new hip?

Joking aside, what can we expect after such an all-encompassing technical rout?  There are essentially two ways to interpret such overwhelmingly positive / negative market internal readings: temporary exhaustion and inflection or breakaway continuation.  Normally, when US equity markets exhibit an opening dislocation (greater than +/- 1.5%) and an extreme trend day (greater than 90% A/D, VOLD, etc.) there tends to be an immediate reflex so as to offset lopsided internal measures of momentum.  And though the majority of such dislocationary instances immediately resolve themselves in the opposite price direction, the possibility of witnessing a breakaway continuation to the downside here looms large.

The only other modern instance of a -498 Advance / Decline reading on the S&P 500 occurred on September 29, 2008.  Equity markets had effectively crashed before 9/29/08 saw an -8.83% swoon; the next day closed 60 points higher, retracing 63.08% of that loss before an eight day waterfall…
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Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10

In case you missed this in the Stock Chart section: 

Fibozachi and Chopshop’s proprietary trading methods provide them with ideas for short, intermediate and long-term trades in a weekly timeframe. This report discusses potential trade setups they’ll be watching throughout the week for possible entries. Their system is based on technicals of given stocks, but not to the exclusion of the greater context of stock market action. We hope you enjoy this report and as always, we appreciate feedback. - Ilene 

Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10

Detail view of a 'Dangerous Current' sign in front of breaking waves

Though the weekly trends of US equity markets remain bullish, the S&P 500 ($INX) has almost grabbed our upper target of 1,185 and we at Fibozachi simply do not like the risk/reward ratio of establishing long positions after such an extensive rally has already taken place. While the past two weeks have resulted positive closes and higher highs, volume has continually diminished. The $INX has also registered an “Advance Block” bearish candlestick pattern. This is a 3-bar pattern where price moves higher over each candle, developing a larger upper shadow / wick on each successive bar. This character within this pattern suggests that bullish momentum continues to wane (over 3 weeks now), unable to close the week with the same strength that it began.

The vast majority of stocks have come back into resistance levels from June ‘08 – August ‘08, which will likely prove a good place to pause (at the very least), in the process putting a halt to the current rally that we are enjoying. Several long-term Fibonacci Moving Averages (SMAs & EMAs) are coming into play for many stocks, which will likely provide additional overhead resistance and help cap this rally.…
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Fibozachi Forecast

Fibozachi and Chopshop’s proprietary trading methods provide them with ideas for short, intermediate and long-term trades in a weekly timeframe. This report discusses potential trade setups they’ll be watching throughout the week for possible entries. Their system is based on technicals of given stocks, but not to the exclusion of the greater context of stock market action. We hope you enjoy this report and as always, we appreciate feedback. - Ilene 

Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10

Detail view of a 'Dangerous Current' sign in front of breaking waves

Though the weekly trends of US equity markets remain bullish, the S&P 500 ($INX) has almost grabbed our upper target of 1,185 and we at Fibozachi simply do not like the risk/reward ratio of establishing long positions after such an extensive rally has already taken place. While the past two weeks have resulted positive closes and higher highs, volume has continually diminished. The $INX has also registered an “Advance Block” bearish candlestick pattern. This is a 3-bar pattern where price moves higher over each candle, developing a larger upper shadow / wick on each successive bar. This character within this pattern suggests that bullish momentum continues to wane (over 3 weeks now), unable to close the week with the same strength that it began.

The vast majority of stocks have come back into resistance levels from June ’08 – August ’08, which will likely prove a good place to pause (at the very least), in the process putting a halt to the current rally that we are enjoying. Several long-term Fibonacci Moving Averages (SMAs & EMAs) are coming into play for many stocks, which will likely provide additional overhead resistance and help cap this rally.

While the levels of 1,200 and 1,230 on the S&P 500 remain possible upside targets, we remain adamant that chasing a few percent pointsafter a blistering 70%+ rally is a fool’s game. Considering where US equity markets currently hover, it is time to either sit on your hands and wait for a fat pitch right down the middle, or (if you are nimble enough) to begin targeting stocks that may be topping at these levels. Across dozens of our proprietary screens, which scan every US stock, ETF and market group (and then some), an overwhelming amount of bearish signals registered into Friday’s close. Even more noteworthy, our screens this weekend were almost entirely devoid of anything bullish. Nevertheless, we scoured the charts to find a handful of good bullish candidates to…
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New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold

New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold

Courtesy of Chopshop at Fibozachi 

As the VIX languishes in the doldrums of teen spirit, lulling market participants to sleep before volatility comes screaming back to life, the CME & CBOE have announced a partnership that will create futures (and options on futures) for volatility indexes across a variety of asset classes.  Beginning with Oil, Gold, Corn and Soybeans, these new derivative instruments are scheduled for launch in Q3 of 2010.  Each benchmark index will be established upon the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and price series will originate from CME Group options on futures contracts via the most active electronically traded front and nearby contracts.  

[1]  CME press release

[2]  Crude Oil, Gold & Euro Volatility Index charts

[3]  CBOE primer on just what the heck the VIX actually is

CHICAGO, March 5  — CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it has entered into a seven-year license agreement with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) that will allow CME Group to list futures and options on futures for volatility indexes on a variety of asset classes. These contracts will be listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of the particular exchange where the products will be traded (CME, CBOT or NYMEX). 

"Our liquid and transparent commodity and financial markets are the foundation for the creation of new indexes that customers can use to gain a view on volatility across a wide array of asset classes," said Scot Warren, CME Group Managing Director of Equity Index Products and Services. "We believe that a reliable benchmark index for volatility sentiment on contracts such as WTI Crude Oil, Corn, Soybeans and Gold will help market participants make more effective investment and hedging decisions based on their exposure to market volatility."

Terms of the license agreement between the exchanges include the following:

  • CBOE will create, own and calculate the benchmark indexes using its established CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and license use of the indexes to CME Group.
  • The benchmark indexes are scheduled to begin publishing data during the third quarter of 2010.


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 1.5.10

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 1.5.10

In this 1.5.10 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 12 technical profiles of the S&P 500 Futures (ES), the VIX,  the US Dollar Index (DXY), Crude Oil Futures (CL), Gold Futures (GC) and Silver Futures (SI).

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

ES (S&P 500 Futures)

ES 55 Minute

ES Daily 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index


VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily 

DXY (US Dollar Index

DXY 144 Minute

DXY Daily 

CL (Crude Oil Futures) 

CL 144 Minute

CL Daily 

GC (Gold Futures) 

GC 144 Minute

GC Daily 

SI (Silver Futures)

SI 144 Minute

SI Daily

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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True Trading Tips: High-Probability Intra-Day Scalp Setups Using the NYSE TICK

Technician’s Corner

Today’s market action was rather uneventful, however "lazy" days like today can often provide highly accurate and effective trading signals as a direct result of price immobility within narrow ranges.  With a practical knowledge / understanding of technical analysis, one can utilize such signals to profitably scalp futures, stocks and ETFs with ease. 

The following picture illustrates the two "gimme" trades that we discretionarily executed today as well as the logic and reasoning behind them.

 -- Please click on the snapshot below to open a large, crystal-clear picture --

 

ESH10 Mint Scalper

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.28.09

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.28.09

In this 12.28.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 10 technical profiles of Gold, Silver, the US Dollar Index, the VIX, the BKX (Bank Index), GS (Golidlocks), SKF and the Cult of Cupertino, er, crAAPLe, er, (snap crackle) AAPL.

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

GC (Gold Futures)

Gold Daily 

SI (Silver Futures)

SI Daily

US Dollar Index 

DXY Daily

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index 

VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

BKX: Bank Index

BKX 55 Minute 

SKF: UltraShort Financials

SKF 55 Minute

SKF Daily

GS: Goldman Sachs

GS Daily 

AAPL "Doji’s" its Way to New Highs

AAPL Daily

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.21.09

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.21.09

In this 12.21.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 12 technical profiles of the ES (S&P 500 Futures), the VIX, Gold, Futures, Silver Futures, Crude Oil Futures and the US Dollar Index. 

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

ES (S&P 500 Futures)

ES 55 Min

ES Daily

 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index

VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

 

GC (Gold Futures)


GC 55 Minute

GC Daily

GC Daily Semi

 

SI (Silver Futures) 

SI 55 Minute

SI Daily

 

CL (Crude Oil Futures) 

CL 55 Minute

CL Daily

 

US Dollar Index

DXY Daily

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat at the time of publishing …

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.17.09

Technician’s Corner

FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.17.09

In this 12.17.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present detailed technical profiles of the US Dollar Index, Gold Futures, Silver Futures, the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the S&P 500 Cash …

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

US Dollar Index
 

DXY 55 Minute

DXY Daily

DXY Daily2

 

GC: Gold Futures
 

GC 55 Minute

GC Daily

SI: Silver Futures
 

SI 55 Minute

SI Daily

 

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index


VIX 55 Minute

VIX Daily

 

INX: S&P 500 Cash Index

INX 55 Minute

INX Daily

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat and merry at the time of publishing …

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

 


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NYSE TICK Divergences Predict End-of-Day Selloff

Fibozachi 

NYSE TICK Divergences Predict End-of-Day Selloff

 

One of the screens that we at Fibozachi continually monitor throughout the Cash session is the NYSE TICK. 

The hackneyed cliche of "volume precedes price" is certainly true more often than not, however, it is far from foolproof.  We prefer to modify this tired cliche by saying that: "buying and selling pressure precedes price."

The snapshots below (from today’s session) clearly illustrate how this critical relationship (between the TICK and price action itself) plays out on a daily basis.

 

- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -

 

ESH10 (S&P 500 E-Mini) with TICK Highs & Lows Overlayed onto Price

 

mint Scalper 1 Minute

 

NYSE TICK 1-Minute

 

mint TICK 1 Minute

 

Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.  We are currently flat and merry at the time of publishing …

 

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.


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ValueWalk

China May Not Have Stopped North Korea's Nuclear Program Deliberately

By Mauldin Economics. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The United States and China met to discuss trade issues.

The meeting ended without agreement on anything. The obligatory joint press conference after the talks, where everyone pretends that everything was fine, was canceled.

The only comment came from a US official who said there were frank discussions, which means that the talks were tough and full of threats.

CFTC Denies Asking Renaissance For Code

Trump’s Withdrawal from COP21 Means Nothing: Morgan Stanley

...



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Zero Hedge

Senate Releases Full Text Of "Skinny" Obamacare Repeal Bill, Vote Expected After Midnight

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With the Senate healthcare vote expected sometime between midnight and 2am, moments ago the full text of the Senate "Skinny" bill which may or may not pass, has been released. Here is the summary version of what is hereby known as the "The Health Care Freedom Act":

  • REPEAL THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE — Obamacare's individual mandate forced the American people to purchase insurance they frequently didn't want, couldn't afford or actually use. This pla...


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Phil's Favorites

Self-driving cars are coming - but are we ready?

 

Self-driving cars are coming – but are we ready?

Courtesy of Johanna ZmudTexas A&M University and Paul CarlsonTexas A&M University

How will we react when cars start driving themselves? Patramansky Oleg/Shutterstock.com

It’s been 60 years since the cover of Popular Mechanics magazine gave us the promise of flying cars. But our personal mobility options remain, today and ...



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Digital Currencies

"Digital Currencies Are Nothing But An Unfounded Fad" Howard Marks Calls Bitcoin "A Pyramid Scheme"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Excerpted from Howard Marks latest memo...

Digital Currencies

The discussion of innovative investments brings me to Bitcoin, Ether and other digital currencies. I’d guess these things have arisen from the intersection of (a) doubts about financial security – including the value of national currencies – that grew out of the financial crisis and (b) the comfort felt by millennials regarding all things virtual. But they’re not real.

Some businesses accept Bitcoin as payment.  Some buyers want to own Ether because it can be used to pay for computing power on the Ethereum network.&n...



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Insider Scoop

PayPal's Q2 Was Strong, But Valuation Has Some Analysts Concerned

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related PYPL 5 Biggest Price Target Changes For Thursday PayPal Scores Q2 Beat, Analyst Sees More Improvements Ahea...

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Chart School

U.S. Dollar; Triple support test after rare 30-week decline

Courtesy of Chris Kimble

From 2011 to the start of this year, the US$ has been pretty strong, as it rallied nearly 30% in 6-years. Over the past 30-weeks, King Dollar has been rather weak.

Below looks at the US$ over the past 18-years, with 30-week performance applied-

King Dollar has declined over 9% in the last 30-weeks at (1). As one can see, this sharp of a decline in 30-weeks hasn’t taken place a ton of times since the late 1990’s. The decline has the US$ testing the bottom of a 24-month trading range and two rising support lines at the same time at (2...



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Biotech

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

The cells inside this bioreactor are the real pharmaceutical factories. Sanofi Pasteur, CC BY-NC-ND

In a factory just outside San Francisco, there’s an upright stainless steel vat the size of a small car, and it’s got something swirling inside.

The vat is stud...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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