How to Kickstart the Economy
by ilene - October 21st, 2010 4:18 am
How to Kickstart the Economy
By MIKE WHITNEY, originally published at CounterPunch
On Friday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke made the case for a second round of quantitative easing (QE) claiming that inflation is presently "too low" to achieve the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment. By purchasing long-term Treasuries, Bernanke hopes to lower bond yields and force investors into riskier assets. That, in turn, will push stocks higher, making investors feel wealthier and more apt to boost spending. (Re: "trickle down", when investors increase spending, it reduces the slack in the economy and lowers unemployment.) Thus, QE is intended to divert investment to where it is needed and to lift the economy out of the doldrums.
That’s the theory, at least. In practice, it doesn’t work so well. Over a trillion dollars in reserves are still sitting on banks balance sheets from QE1. The anticipated credit expansion never got off the ground; the banks loan books are still shrinking. Bernanke fails to say why more-of-the-same will produce a different result. QE is also risky; in fact, it could make matters worse. Unconventional methods of pumping liquidity into the economy can undermine confidence in the dollar and trigger turmoil in the currency markets. Trading partners like Brazil and South Korea are already complaining that the Fed is flooding the markets with money pushing up their currencies and igniting inflation.
The threat of more cheap capital is causing widespread concern and talk of a currency war. If Bernanke goes ahead with his plan, more countries will implement capital controls and trade barriers. The Fed is clearing the way for a wave of protectionism. Quantitative easing, which is essentially an asset swap--reserves for securities--will not lower unemployment or revive the economy. Low bond yields won’t spark another credit expansion any more than low interest rates have increased home sales. The way to tackle flagging demand is with fiscal stimulus; food stamps, state aid, unemployment benefits, work programs etc. The focus should be on putting money in the hands of the people who will spend it immediately giving the economy the jolt that policymakers seek. QE doesn’t do that. It depends on asset inflation to generate more spending, which means that we’ve returned to the Fed’s preferred growth formula--bubblenomics.
Quantitative easing is also extremely costly for, what amounts to, modest gains. Consider this, from the Wall Street Journal:
"The…
 Email This Post
|
 Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
 del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
How Keynesian Archduke Krugman Recommended A Housing Bubble As A Solution To All Of America’s Post Tech Bubble Problems
by ilene - September 8th, 2010 7:20 pm
How Keynesian Archduke Krugman Recommended A Housing Bubble As A Solution To All Of America’s Post Tech Bubble Problems
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
The year is 2002, America has just woken up with the worst post dot.com hangover ever. Paul Krugman then, just as now, writes worthless op-eds for the NYT. And then, just as now, the Keynsian acolyte recommended excess spending as the solution to all of America problems. Only this one time, at band camp, Krugman went too far. If there is one thing that everyone can agree on, it is that the Housing Bubble is arguably the worst thing to ever happen to America, bringing with it such pestilence and locusts as the credit bubble, the end of free market capitalism, and the inception of American-style crony capitalism. Those who ignored it, even though it was staring them in the face, such as Greenspan and Bernanke, now have their reputation teetering on the edge of oblivion. So what can we say of those who openly endorsed it as a solution to America’s problems?
Enter exhibit A: New York Times, August 2, 2002, "Dubya’s Double Dip?" Name the author: "The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn’t a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." If you said Krugman, you win. Indeed, the idiocy of Keynesianism knew no bounds then, as it does now. The solution then, as now, to all problems was more bubbles, more spending, more deficits. So we have the implosion tech bubble: And what does Krugman want to create, to fix it? Why, create a housing bubble… Well, at least we know now how that advice played out.
And now what? He wants another trillion in fiscal stimulus… Quadrillion? Sextillion (arguably this cool sounding number is at least 2-4 years away before the Fed brings it into the daily vernacular)?…
| Email This Post
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
Market Cheers 1.6% Growth; Treasuries Hammered; What’s Next?
by ilene - August 27th, 2010 3:51 pm
Market Cheers 1.6% Growth; Treasuries Hammered; What’s Next?
Courtesy of Mish
Today the DOW has crossed the 10K line for the umpteenth time (at least 3 times in the past 3 days alone depending on how you count), smack on the heels of "fantastic news" that second quarter GDP was 1.6%.
For a change, economists were a bit too pessimistic but to get to that point, their estimates had to be ratcheted down twice from 2.5% to 1.4%. Now the market, temporarily at least, thinks 1.6% is good.
It isn’t. More importantly, GDP expectations looking forward for 3rd quarter are in the neighborhood of 2.5%, a number that is from Fantasyland. I expect a negative print.
GDP News Release
Inquiring minds are digging into the BEA’s report National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2010 (second estimate) for additional details.
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, exports, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a sharp acceleration in imports and a sharp deceleration in private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in federal government spending.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the first. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 17.6 percent, compared with an increase of 7.8 percent. Nonresidential structures increased 0.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 17.8
…
| Email This Post
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
Back in the Soup
by ilene - August 13th, 2010 3:50 pm
Back in the Soup
Courtesy of MIKE WHITNEY writing at CounterPunch
On Tuesday, the Fed announced that it will reinvest the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into US Treasuries. The process is called Quantitative Easing. In theory, Q.E. increases inflation expectations so that consumers spend more before their money loses value and thus rev up the economy. That’s the theory. But adding to bank reserves when the banks are already loaded to the gills, achieves nothing. It doesn’t put money in the hands of people who will spend it, generate more economic activity or increase growth. It’s a big zero. Oddly enough, the Fed even admits this. According to an article in Bloomberg News, "The Central Bank posted a paper co-written by Seth Carpenter, associate director of the Fed’s monetary-affairs division, finding that the “quantity of reserve balances itself is not likely to trigger a rapid increase in lending.” No "increase in lending" means no credit expansion and no rebound. Thus, QE will have no real impact.
From the FOMC Statement:
"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated…..
“The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability."
There’s not a glimmer of light in the Fed’s statement, and yet, "the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization". But how? And on what is the Fed basing its prediction? Certainly not the data. Maybe tea leaves? The truth is the economy is in very bad shape and getting worse. This is from Wednesday’s New York Times:
"The government’s preliminary estimate for economic growth in the
…
| Email This Post
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
An Avoidable Depression
by ilene - August 6th, 2010 4:10 pm
An Avoidable Depression
.png)
Courtesy of MIKE WHITNEY at CounterPunch
The economy has gone from bad to worse. On Friday the Commerce Department reported that GDP had slipped from 3.7% to 2.4% in one quarter. Now that depleted stockpiles have been rebuilt and fiscal stimulus is running out, activity will continue to sputter increasing the likelihood of a double dip recession. Consumer credit and spending have taken a sharp downturn and data released on Tuesday show that the personal savings rate has soared to 6.4%. Mushrooming savings indicate that household deleveraging is ongoing which will reduce spending and further exacerbate the second-half slowdown. The jobs situation is equally grim; 8 million jobs have been lost since the beginning of the recession, but policymakers on Capital Hill and at the Fed refuse to initiate government programs or provide funding that will put the country back to work. Long-term "structural" unemployment is here to stay.
The stock market has continued its highwire act due to corporate earnings reports that surprised to the upside. 75% of S&P companies beat analysts estimates which helped send shares higher on low volume. Corporate profits increased but revenues fell; companies laid off workers and trimmed expenses to fatten the bottom line. Profitability has been maintained even though the overall size of the pie has shrunk. Stocks rallied on what is essentially bad news.
This is from ABC News:
"Consumer confidence matched its low for the year this week, with the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index extending a steep 9-point, six-week drop from what had been its 2010 high….The weekly index, based on Americans’ views of the national economy, the buying climate and their personal finances, stands at -50 on its scale of +100 to -100, just 4 points from its lowest on record in nearly 25 years of weekly polls…It’s in effect the death zone for consumer sentiment."
Consumer confidence has plunged due to persistent high unemployment, flat-lining personal incomes, and falling home prices. Ordinary working people do not care about the budget deficits; that’s a myth propagated by the right wing think tanks. They care about jobs, wages, and providing for their families. Congress’s unwillingness to address the problems that face the middle class has led to an erosion of confidence in government. This is from the Wall Street Journal:
"The lackluster job market continued to weigh on confidence. The share of
…
| Email This Post
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
29% of Australian Bank Employees Worried about Ability of Customers to Repay Loans, 43% Pressured to Sell Products; Bernanke is Wishin’ and Hopin’
by ilene - June 9th, 2010 1:14 pm
29% of Australian Bank Employees Worried about Ability of Customers to Repay Loans, 43% Pressured to Sell Products; Bernanke is Wishin’ and Hopin’
Courtesy of Mish
Judging from of Australian bank employees, Australia’s debt bubble is ready to implode soon. Please consider Bank workers fret over customer debt.
The survey by the Finance Sector Union showed that 29 per cent of its members felt uncomfortable about their customers’ ability to meet their financial obligations with new debt products.
About 43 per cent said they were ”are under pressure to sell debt products, even if customers don’t ask for them and may not be able to afford them”.
Worries from bank tellers and workers come as the total Australian mortgage debt for owner-occupied housing hit a record $774 billion in April, while debt for investment purchases totalled $330 billion, according to data from the Reserve Bank. Personal loans totalled $141 billion in April.
Of the major banks, Westpac-owned St George ranked the highest with 75 per cent of workers reporting an emphasis on debt selling. For ANZ and credit unions, 64 per cent of employees noted an increase in debt selling.
For Commonwealth Bank, 63 per cent of workers reported the debt-selling pressure, while 53 per cent of Commonwealth Bank-owned Bankwest employees reported the focus.
Less than half of National Australia Bank employees, or 49 per cent, said they had been instructed to push more credit on customers.
Bernanke Sees Recovery Gaining Traction
Australia is all set to implode but in the US Bernanke sees recovery gaining traction.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday he is hopeful the economy will gain traction and not fall back into a "double dip" recession.
"My best guess is we will have a continued recovery, but it won’t feel terrific," Bernanke said.
That’s because economic growth won’t be robust enough to quickly drive down the unemployment rate, now at 9.7 percent, he said in remarks to the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a nonpartisan research group.
Asked when the Fed will start raising interest rates, Bernanke quipped "in the future."
Wishin’ and Hopin’
Bernanke is clearly Wishin’ and Hopin’ and I have just the video sing along for it.
If you don’t like that version here is another
I have a message for Bernanke: Recoveries are not built on loose monetary policy, nor imprudent fiscal…
| Email This Post
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
Why Is the Euro Plummeting?
by ilene - March 25th, 2010 8:11 pm
Why Is the Euro Plummeting?
Courtesy of Larry Doyle at Sense on Cents
The Euro is plummeting in value because of the ongoing fiscal problems in Greece and the recent downgrade of Portugal’s sovereign credit, correct? Well, these are the most recent developments, but the problems go much deeper than that.
Although the very nature of short term mentality in a heavily dominated short term trading environment would point to these problems within Greece and Portugal as the primary reasons for the problems with the Euro, let’s work a little harder and navigate a little deeper.
First off, we need to accept the premise that we are experiencing structural changes in the context of a secular market. Our friends in Washington and on Wall Street (as well as other global financial centers) work very hard to present our current economy and market as possessing merely cyclical risk. Don’t buy it.
Global fiscal stimulus over the last year has provided enormous flows of capital at essentially zero rates of interest and driven markets for many risk-based assets sky high. Has the stimulus corrected the fundamental flaws in the balance sheets of global governments and many financial institutions? I would answer with a mix of a resounding no in terms of global governments (their balance sheets have significantly worsened) to somewhat better for selected financials. All this said, the fundamental flaws and issues embodied in the massive debts overhanging nations and economic regions remain. To this end, let’s revisit commentary I penned a little over a year ago entitled, “Why Is George Soros Short the Euro? MUST READ.”
Within the body of my commentary, I reference great work by John Mauldin and his close colleague Niels Jensen. A year ago, Jensen wrote about problems within the Euro-zone and I referenced:
Public debt to rise and rise
. . . the banking sector cannot, in the current environment at least, raise sufficient capital to stay afloat, so more, possibly a lot more, tax payers’ money will have to be put forward. This can only mean one thing. Public debt will rise and rise. The official estimate for the UK for next year is already approaching 10% of GDP, an estimate which will almost certainly rise further. We probably have to get used to running 10-15% deficits for a few years, a fact which seriously undermines the notion
…
| Email This Post
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
Rep. Suzie Bassi: “Illinois in Utter Crisis, Next to Bankruptcy, $13bn Hole in a $28bn Budget”; Ambrose Evans Pritchard Inflicted with FIV
by ilene - March 1st, 2010 8:59 pm
Rep. Suzie Bassi: "Illinois in Utter Crisis, Next to Bankruptcy, $13bn Hole in a $28bn Budget"; Ambrose Evans Pritchard Inflicted with FIV
Courtesy of Mish
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has the right facts but the wrong cure in Don’t go wobbly on us now, Ben Bernanke, an article detailing the problems in many US states, notably Illinois.
Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois is near the point of fiscal disintegration. "The state is in utter crisis," said Representative Suzie Bassi. "We are next to bankruptcy. We have a $13bn hole in a $28bn budget."
The state has been paying bills with unfunded vouchers since October. A fifth of buses have stopped. Libraries, owed $400m (£263m), are closing one day a week. Schools are owed $725m. Unable to pay teachers, they are preparing mass lay-offs. "It’s a catastrophe", said the Schools Superintedent.
In Alexander County, the sheriff’s patrol cars have been repossessed; three-quarters of his officers are laid off; the local prison has refused to take county inmates until debts are paid.
Florida, Arizona, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York are all facing crises. California has cut teachers salaries by 5pc, and imposed a 5pc levy on pension fees.
This is not to pick on America. Belt-tightening is the oppressive fact of 2010-2012 for half the world. Hungary, Ukraine, the Baltics and the Balkans are already under the knife. Latvia’s economy may contract by 30pc from peak to trough as it carries out an "internal devaluation", ie wage cuts, to hold its euro peg.
The eurozone’s fiscal squeeze is well advanced in Ireland. Brussels has told Greece to cut by 10pc of GDP in three years, Spain by 8pc, Portugal by 6pc. Britain must slash soon, or face a gilts strike.
The Bank for International Settlements says Britain needs a primary surplus of 5.8pc of GDP for a decade to stabilise debt at pre-crisis levels, given the ageing crunch as well. The figure is 6.4pc for Japan, 4.3pc for the US and France. It warns of "unstable dynamics", posh talk for a debt spiral. "Action is needed now."
The West risks a slow grind into debt-deflation unless central banks offset fiscal tightening with monetary stimulus – QE, of course – to keep demand alive. Yet the Fed and the European Central Bank are letting credit contract.
So why has Bernanke broken ranks with King and…
| Email This Post
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
Stop the madness now!
by ilene - November 21st, 2009 12:25 pm
Excellent post on the economy and saving it (or not) by Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns. (My yellow highlighting) – Ilene
Stop the madness now!
This is a post I just wrote over at Yves Smith’s site Naked Capitalism in response to a reader request. Marshall Auerback has already written a reply as well and I will post this later today.
A reader at Naked Capitalism asked us to respond to a recent article from the Christian Science Monitor asking Does US need a second stimulus to create jobs?
Marshall Auerback has already done some heavy lifting. He says emphatically yes. Now I want to take a crack at this. My short answer is no. But before I go into this, as an aside, I wanted to mention Marshall’s new smiling, happy picture up at the great blog New Deal 2.0 where he now writes. Earlier, when Credit Writedowns was hosted at Blogger, he used a picture best described as a mug shot in his profile, but he has changed that one too (although he smiles there a little less). He thinks we haven’t noticed this sleight of hand. Well I have! Once upon a time, Marshall wrote with a man I called all bearish, all the time this summer. Take a look at that post; you don’t see him smiling now do you? We have Lynn Parramore, New Deal 2.0’s editor to thank for making Marshall Auerback into an optimist.
Different policy choices
But all teasing aside, I do want to take the opposite side of this trade. You see I too was a deficit hawk. And while I may have been backing fiscal stimulus, I have felt conflicted for doing so. Here’s how I see it.
You have four options:
- No stimulus. Let the chips fall where they may. Yves Smith calls this the ‘Mellonite liquidationist mode.’ The thinking here is that trying to avoid the inevitable bust only makes it that much larger. And the economic policies during recessions in 1991 and 2001 seem to bear that out. The Harding Recession of 1921 is commonly seen as gold standard response.
- Monetary stimulus only. Quantitative easing mania. My understanding is this is what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has been advocating. The thinking here is that the flood of money and the
…
| Email This Post
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
Chinese railways and speculating pig farmers
by ilene - October 26th, 2009 12:52 pm
Chinese railways and speculating pig farmers
Courtesy of Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets
This weeks’ entry is fairly miscellaneous, a consequence both of the amount and variety of news coming out of China and my own hectic schedule, which prevents me from dealing with all of these issues in a more unified way. Between lots of investor meetings and finishing up a number of writing commitments, I am preparing next week to go to New York and Washington for ten days.
As an aside, the timing of my trip was determined by an East Coast tour, centered on New York, which my music label, Maybe Mars, is arranging for some of the best Beijing musicians, including the surreal folk singer Xiao He, one of the most astonishing and creative musicians I have ever worked with. For those of my regular readers based in or near New York who may be interested in checking out the Beijing new-music scene, I strongly recommend that you keep an eye out for the shows, beginning November 5 and running through the end of the month. These guys are really good and I expect a great reaction from the New York music community.
But back to more mundane stuff. Last week’s excellent economic numbers once again reinforced everyone’s existing prejudices. I discussed why in a September 11 entry in response to similar numbers last month. Those who believe that the stimulus package has essentially resolved China’s plight and eliminated its vulnerability to export demand saw the 8.9% year-on-year GDP growth rate (at the lower end of a narrow range of expectations) as proof that Chinese growth has solidly recovered. Andy Rothman at CLSA in a research report released the following day had this interpretation:
Other than GDP coming in just under 9%, no surprises, and we agree with the NBS spokesman, who this morning said ‘the overall situation of the national economy was good.’ We maintain our forecast of about 8% GDP growth for this year, and 8-9% for 2010 (closer to 9% if you expect a US/EU recovery to generate a bit of a net exports boost for China).
He then went on to say something that puzzled me:
The fact that China’s GDP grew by 7.7% in the first nine months of the year while exports were still extremely…
| Email This Post
|
Twitter
|
LinkedIn
|
del.icio.us
|
Google+ |
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(
