Posts Tagged ‘France’

Monday Market Target – S&P 2,000 or BUST!

SPY 5 MINUTEAs usual on Friday, more volume = more selling

Still, there's no reason to expect volume to come back and that means the markets can go back to drifting higher when the bars are lower and that can get us all the way to S&P 2,000, but over that line is going to be a tough trick

Our weekend reading from our Member Chat Room produced the usual litany of woes with the usual suspects:  

ISIS, Putin, China, Gaza, Ebola and Draghi causing the usual damage aided by newcomers like an earthquake in San Francisco, a volcano in Iceland, a nuclear scare in Belgium - but none are as scary as French President and Austerity Radical, Francois Holland, dissolving his Government because they disagreed with him.  

Screen Shot 2014 08 22 at 2.32.24 PMIn interviews with the French press and speeches at a Socialist gathering Sunday, Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg and Education Minister Benoît Hamon said forcibly reducing budget deficits as the economy wilts is driving up unemployment, fueling political extremism and risks tipping the economy into recession.  "The priority must be exiting crisis and the dogmatic reduction of deficits should come second," Mr. Montebourg said in an interview with Le Monde.

The criticism came at a difficult moment for the French president, who said earlier this week he will push ahead with a three-year plan to cut public spending to fund tax cuts for business even as the economy stagnates – so he fired them all!  As in the US, Businesses continued cutting investment in the second quarter despite receiving the first payouts from labor-tax reductions.

"Promising to get the economy going again, on the path to growth and full employment, hasn't worked. Honesty obliges us to acknowledge this," Mr. Montebourg said in a speech to supporters. "The role of the economy minister and any statesman in his place is to confront the truth—even it is cruel—and propose alternative solutions," he added.

8-22-2014 5-24-48 PM Yellen


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The Road to World War III – The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to Play

The Road to World War III – The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to Play

By David DeGraw (h/t ZH)

The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here. To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here.

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Editor’s Note: The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here. To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here.

I: Economic Imperial Operations

The Road to World War III - The Global Banking Cartel Has One Card Left to PlayWhen we analyze our current crisis, focusing on the past few years of economic activity blinds us to the history and context that are vital to understanding the root cause. What we have been experiencing is not the result of an unforeseen economic crash that appeared out of the blue with the collapse of the housing market. It was certainly not brought on by people who bought homes they couldn’t afford. To frame this crisis around a debate on economic theory misses the point entirely. To even blame it on greedy bankers,…
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France Worries About AAA Rating; UK Economists Urge Greece to Abandon Euro; Spanish Prime Minister Losing Support; Japan’s Industrial Output Weakens

France Worries About AAA Rating; UK Economists Urge Greece to Abandon Euro; Spanish Prime Minister Losing Support; Japan’s Industrial Output Weakens

Courtesy of Mish 

Inquiring minds might be interested in an international roundup for Memorial Day. Let’s take a look at top stories about France, Germany, Greece, the EU, Spain, and Japan.

French Finance Minister Says "Keeping AAA Rating a Stretch" 

As Eurozone trade unions prepare to battle over various austerity programs, the French budget minister warns on credit rating.

France admitted on Sunday that keeping its top-notch credit rating would be "a stretch" without some tough budget decisions, following German hints that Berlin may resort to raising taxes to help bring down its deficit.

Euro zone trade unions are preparing for possible confrontations in the coming week if governments impose austerity measures or labor reforms unilaterally. But ministers made clear they were ready to take unpopular steps to prevent the Greek debt crisis spreading to their economies, although doubts are growing about whether the Spanish government in particular has enough support to get its way.

Budget Minister Francois Baroin indicated on Sunday that France should not take for granted its AAA rating, which allows Paris to borrow relatively cheaply on international markets and finance its big budget deficit.

"The objective of keeping the AAA rating is an objective that is a stretch, and it is an objective that, in fact, partly informs the economic policies we want to have," Baroin said. "We must maintain our AAA rating, reduce our debt to avoid being too dependent on the markets, and we must do this for the long term," he told Canal+ TV in an interview.

France has forecast its deficit will hit 8 percent of gross domestic product this year, but aims to bring it down to within the European Union’s 3 percent limit by 2013.

UK Economists Advise Greece to Abandon the Euro

The Times Online reports Greece urged to give up euro

THE Greek government has been advised by British economists to leave the euro and default on its €300 billion (£255 billion) debt to save its economy.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a London-based consultancy, has warned Greek ministers they will be unable to escape their debt trap without devaluing their own currency to boost exports. The only way this can happen is if Greece returns to its own currency.


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EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?

Courtesy of Gordon T. Long 

The European Crisis is proving to be more of an unraveling than a contagion. 

I have long written that the European Monetary Union (EMU) constitution and Euro currency should be viewed in the context of a risky bet versus a sound regional monetary strategy. The odds of the EMU’s survival are presently reflected in a plunging Euro, despite a historic and unprecedented intervention. This indicates that the EMU’s existence in its current form is now a bad bet. 

The good news is that this is becoming obvious and it suggests that the serious governance flaws of the 17 year Euro Experiment may finally be addressed. It took a crisis to see its first test which has been the generally accepted view of when the euro experiment would prove its viability. The established momentum of the EU since its inception and its broad acceptance prove that its survival is presently a matter of European preference with most Eurozone members feeling it an absolute necessity. We would therefore expect to see the EU constitution reformed. What should concern investors the most however is how the mechanics of what will be a ‘forced reform’ unfold. The highly visible process will have profound implications to the stability of global financial markets and to a very tenuous global economic recovery.  

I see the long standing philosophical difference between Germany and France to be at the core of this potentially very public resolution. During the recent behind closed door emergency bailout negotiations, these differences are reported to have come to the fore. Additionally, Frau Merkel and Monsieur Sarkozy are very different personalities. Will Frau Merkel show German Steel or as the German tabloid Bild proclaimed on news of the Euro bailout, become ‘schmucks’? Will Sarkozy the ever populist media hound prove to be a true diplomat or display what Germans perceive as insulting French arrogance? Unfortunately, the world must wait and watch while financial markets will no doubt fluctuate wildly on the uncertainty of the outcome. 

What financial markets are oblivious to is just how crafty these two politicians are. There is more going on regarding a European strategy than the media once again fails to recognize and which I will speculate on later.

For the full unabridged version of this article with slide presentation see: Tipping Points – Commentary

WHY
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Europe’s Sleepless Night

Europe’s Sleepless Night

Courtesy of Gregory White at Clusterstock 

europe

Europe remains in chaos, after another day of heavy losses. What was once a crisis of the PIIGS is now felt by Germany and France as both come to grips with the meltdown in the eurozone.

Tomorrow, Germany votes to approve or deny the bailout of Greece. On that vote could hinge the future of the eurozone. It is likely it will pass.

But other problems remain. The risk of contagion from the continent’s debt crisis could soon cripple inter-bank lending, if it hasn’t already.

After announcing a bailout weeks ago, tomorrow is follow through day for the eurozone. Will they need to burn the midnight oil in Brussels yet again on Sunday?

Check out why, even if Germany saves Greece tomorrow, Spain is the real problem lurking in the eurozone > 


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Social Unrest Spreads to Slovenia and Spain; Images Around the Globe; US Not Immune to Protests

Social Unrest Spreads to Slovenia and Spain; Images Around the Globe; US Not Immune to Protests

Courtesy of Mish 

The wave of social unrest is spreading. A new round of protests has hit Spain with a public sector strike set for June 8. In Slovenia, students are protesting new rules that limit their work hours and pay.

"Luka Gubo" an economist from Slovenia writes:

Hi Mish!

First I must say that I love your blog. Great job!

I just wanted you to know that Slovenian students are protesting too.

The main reason for organizing protests is changes in law regarding student jobs. Current tax law makes average workers uncompetitive because businesses pay about 15% income tax for students and more then 35% income tax for average worker (average net income is 930€).

Bear in mind that the average time for a student to complete his higher education here is 6 years and that more then 20% of "students" do not to school at all. Instead, they just enjoy student benefits like lower income taxes, food stamps, etc.

I think that everyone would agree a new law is needed in Slovenia. However, the new will limit the maximum hours worked by students to one third of full work time, and put a limit on maximum hourly wage at 8€ per hour.

That one *ing great free-market solution, wouldn’t you agree?

Here is the Slovenian parliament building after 2 hours:

The protests went smooth for a while, but it did not last long. You can find a series of 39 images at http://www.finance.si/galerije/2139/3/

Luka Gubo

More Images

Greece, Spain hit by strikes over cuts

CNN Reports Greece, Spain hit by strikes over cuts

Public sector union ADEDY and private sector union GSEE called the strikes against the government’s austerity measures, in particular the pension reforms announced last week. The reforms include raising the retirement age, which varies in different professions.

It is the first major strike since May 5, when violent protests against the austerity measures resulted in the deaths of three people in the capital, Athens.

Spanish government workers were set to protest at 6 p.m. (noon ET) outside the Ministry of the Treasury in Madrid and outside the central government offices in their respective towns. Spanish government workers were set to protest at 6


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Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Courtesy of Timothy D. Naegele[1]

First World War

“For want of a nail . . .  the kingdom was lost.”[2] Will Greece’s debt crisis lead to a Greek debt default and the collapse of the euro and an ensuing collapse of the 27-member European Union (or EU), and trigger the next round of crashes that will be described by economic historians decades from now as “the Great Depression II”?[3] The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife in Sarajevo, Serbia brought the tensions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia to a head.  In turn, it is said this triggered a chain of international events that embroiled Russia and the major European powers; and World War I broke out in Europe.[4] Will Greece’s debt crisis set a series of events in motion that sends the world into a downward economic spiral of unfathomable proportions?

For years, I have wrestled with the question of whether the Europe would collapse economically, politically, socially and militarily.  Sounds absurd, you say?  The countries are too interwoven and mutually dependent now for that to happen, and at the very least they will muddle along, making the worst of the best situations, and achieving the lowest common denominator?  The United States of Europe, they are not and never will be, but they have achieved a degree of cohesiveness that I never thought was likely years ago.

I believed jealousies and rivalries and, yes, the hatreds of the past would linger barely beneath the surface, coming unglued at the most inopportune times when it really mattered the most.  When the chips were down, I felt the EU would splinter and fall apart; and that its participants and the world would write it off as a noble experiment that failed, much like the League of Nations.  After all, its successor—the United Nations—is considered to be a colossal joke by Americans, many of whom would love to see it shipped to Europe, and its building on the East River in Manhattan bulldozed and turned into a park, or made into co-ops or condominiums.

The bitter hatreds of the past seem to have subsided in Europe though, and it has become a cultural melting pot, more and more.  Airbus was the first tangible sign of economic integration that I never thought would…
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The Debt Baguette

The Debt Baguette

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown at Reformed Broker 

Here’s the latest from the trench warfare happening ‘Over There’, by which I mean the Euro Zone…

*Rumors abound today about a forthcoming ratings downgrade of France.  Just rumors, but enough to spook every risk asset in sight.

*The Euro has sunk to 1.24 to the US dollar, meanwhile the dollar sinks against gold.  The only thing not sinking is the oil containment equipment in the Gulf of Mexico.

*People are talking about Euro/Dollar parity.  This is a frightening prospect for US exporters and the stock market is pricing that in as we speak (Dow down almost 200 as of lunchtime).

*Gold is entering that spastic phase where everything even tangentially related to it goes parabolic.  Look at the action in the miners, in the precious metals ETFs and ETNs.  You can smell it.

*I’m no expert on the latest Euro austerity plan, but I know people.  This thing ain’t happening, at least not in its current form.  Drug addicts don’t quit addicitions cold turkey, they need methadone and a church basement in which to smoke cigarettes, drink coffee and tell their tales of woe. 

*The Shanghai stock market also isn’t doing anybody any favors, having just this week entered bear market territory (off 20% from the recent high).

*There’s also some talk of Flash Crash II.  Just the fact that people are talking this way tells you that the buyers are in no rush to step in and be heroes at this point.

Be careful out there.  And yes, The Debt Baguette is mine but you can use it. 


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UK Taxpayers Ramrodded Into EU Bailout; Good Riddance to “Clown” Brown

Since when is a financial crisis a "natural disaster." ??  ("Euro-zone leaders are attempting to get round objections from countries such as Britain by invoking Article 122 of the Lisbon Treaty, intended to enable a collective response to natural disasters.")  - Ilene 

UK Taxpayers Ramrodded Into EU Bailout; Good Riddance to "Clown" Brown

REUTERS PICTURE HIGHLIGHT

Courtesy of Mish

Smack in the midst of an election that will likely cost Prime Minister Gordan Brown his job, British taxpayers ordered to bail out euro.

All 27 EU finance ministers have been summoned to Brussels on Sunday to sign up to a “European stabilisation mechanism." Britain will be unable to veto this as it will be put through under the “qualified majority voting” system.

The deal, effectively to shore up the euro, was denounced as a “stitch-up” last night after it emerged Nicolas Sarkozy, the French President and Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, had devised it behind closed doors and were attempting to push it through at a time when there is no clear government in Britain.

“When the markets reopen Monday we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” said President Sarkozy yesterday. “This is a full-scale mobilisation.”

Euro-zone leaders are attempting to get round objections from countries such as Britain by invoking Article 122 of the Lisbon Treaty, intended to enable a collective response to natural disasters. This does not need unanimous agreement.

By doing so, Mr Sarkozy has ensured a speedy confrontation with a new British prime minister and other leaders of non-euro currency countries. All 27 EU finance ministers must be present, but because decision will be taken by qualified majority vote, the 16 euro zone leaders can ensure its passage.

British exposure to liabilities created by a bail-out under the scheme would amount to around 10 per cent of the total loan. If a country failed to repay, the cost to Britain would be ¤10 billion (£8.6 billion) for every ¤100 billion on which it defaulted.

The scheme will present an immediate dilemma for an incoming Conservative government. A bail-out would increase British liabilities and debt at a time when Mr Cameron would be seeking to restrain spending.

Refusal to lend the money would plunge a Tory prime minister, overseeing a coalition or minority government, into a damaging conflict with the EU.

British officials are concerned that the EU is preparing


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Foolish Thursday – Through the Looking Glass

"If you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there." – The Cheshire Cat

I like to sit with my daughters (8 & 10) on the couch and look at news pictures on my laptop – it’s a good way of getting them involved with the day’s events, teaching them about my job and teaching them about the world (albeit from my twisted perspective).  The USA Today is exellent for this as is Reuters and the NY Times.  As CSNY said:

Teach your children well and feed them on your dreams…

Can’t you see, you must be free to teach your children what you believe in, to make a world – that we can live in? 

Since they are kids, I often simplify what’s happening so we have a general classification of "protesters" to explain why the army or police are attacking people with no guns.  Yesterday, my 8-year old had a "eureka" moment when she said to me "Why is everyone around the World protesting – it is because of the bad economy?"  Well, she pretty much nailed it, didn’t she?  As I’ve been warning for years, the poor (all of the bottom 90% at this point) have been pushed to the edge and they are now starting to push back – so much so that it’s obvious to an 8-year old that we are on the verge of a global revolution…

That led to a little photo project we did together, where I also got to teach my daughters one of my favorite songs: "We Won’t Get Fooled Again!"  As the great and powerful Bush the 2nd once said: "Fool me once, shame on, shame on you.  Fool me ya can’t get fooled again."  That pretty much sums up my attitude on the markets right now – we cashed out at the top and, until we see some pretty DEFINITIVE proof that it was not a top, we’ll be sticking to mainly cash, thank you very much!  While Alice’s Red Queen may have said "Sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast," we’re having a little trouble swallowing what’s being dished out by our government and the MSM.  Richard Davis’s article on the lagging GDP is one example, as are many of the fine articles in our Phil’s Favorites section.

In "Through the Looking Glass" (you can tell I have kids!) Alice said "It’s no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different
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ValueWalk

Brian Bares on His Favorite Investment Books and Resources

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Brian Bares on His Favorite Investment Books and Resources

Here are some books he recommends

Berkshire Hathaway letters 

...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The side effects of negative interest rates are 'fanning out across the globe' (Business Insider)

The side effects of Negative Interest Rate Policies in Europe and Japan — what we’ve come to call the NIRP absurdity — are becoming numerous and legendary, and they’re fanning out across the globe, far beyond the NIRP countries.

Bond Traders Say Don't Count Out June Hike After Yellen Remarks (Bloomberg)

...

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Zero Hedge

How Russia Is Preparing For WWIII

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by The Saker,

I have recently posted a piece in which I tried to debunk a few popular myths about modern warfare. Judging by many comments which I received in response to this post, I have to say that the myths in question are still alive and well and that I clearly failed to convince many readers. What I propose to do today, is to look at what Russia is really doing in response to the growing ...



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Phil's Favorites

Japan Is First To Panic; Won't Be The Last

Courtesy of John Rubino.

The most widely-reported result of the recent G-7 meeting was Japan’s attempt to convince the other major economies to admit that a crisis is imminent and take appropriately radical steps. The response seems to have been a bunch of blank stares. As India’s Business Standard noted:

G7 pact offers minimal cover for Abenomics reset A Group of Seven compromise offers minimal cover for Shinzo Abe. The Japanese prime minister’s plan to revitalize the world’s third-largest economy needs fresh impetus. Abe didn’t get as much international backing as he might have liked from hosting the rich nations’ club. But, the summit communique can, just about, be spun his way.

Abe’s cou...



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Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: The Global Rally Accelerates

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains over the past week, up from five the week before, and the average of the eight was an impressive 2.60%. India's SENSEX was the outstanding out performer with a 5.34% surge, and three indexes, France's CAC 40, the Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Germany's DAXK closed the week with gains in the mid-three percents. China's Shanghai was the sole loser with its fractional 0.16% decline. Japan's Nikkei had the second worse performance with a modest gain of 0.59%. Incidentally, the Nikkei about 4% below its late January close when the Bank of Japan adopted its negative interest rate policy.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overvi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Mining Stocks- Most dangerous time to own them in years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The rally in mining stocks since the first of the year has been very impressive.

The rally has taken Gold Miners ETF GDX up to test the 23% retracement of the collapse over the past 5-years. At the same time it is hitting the 23% level, two other resistance lines are being put to a test, with momentum at the highest levels in the past 5-years.

Joe Friday Just The Facts...



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Insider Scoop

Graham Media Group To Buy WCWJ, CW affiliate In Jacksonville, NBC Affiliate in Roanoke

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Graham Media Group, Inc., a Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC) subsidiary, said it struck a deal with Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and Media General, Inc. to purchase WCWJ, a CW affiliate television station in Jacksonville, Florida and WSLS, an NBC affiliate television station in Roanoke, Virginia for $60 million in cash and the assumption of certain liabilities.

The agreement to acquire Nextar Broadcasting included pension obligations. Graham Media Group, Inc. would continue to operate both stations under their current network affiliations.

Graham Media said the acquisition is subject to approval by the FCC, other regulatory appr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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