Posts Tagged ‘Great Depression II’

Fears of Great Depression II

Fears of Great Depression II

Courtesy of Rom at Bondsquawk 

Deflated globe

As the markets tumbled around the globe, risks are increasing that the European debt crisis could spill over and derail a global recovery and into a global recession according to the U.K.’s Telegraph.

Bill Gross of bond fund Pimco said that hedge funds were starting to liquidate their positions in a bid to preserve their capital – a worrying “mini relapse” towards 2008 territory.

Andrew Roberts, head of European rates strategy at RBS, said “Great Depression II” could now be approaching, adding: “It now has potential to speed toward its conclusion; a European $1trn package which does little and political panic tells you we are about to reach the end of the road. The world should be discussing deflation, not inflation.”

Telegraph states that while the plunge in world stock markets comes from the troubles of Europe, fears that the crisis may cripple the world’s fragile economies as they recovery from the U.S. financial crisis, were bolstered by recent economic data.

The European Commission produced “flash” data showing consumer confidence falling from a 23-month high of -15 in April to a seven-month low of -17.5 in May.

In the US there was a surprise 25,000 increase in jobless claims to 471,000 in the week ending May 15. The deterioration in the employment picture, coming hard on the heels of Wednesday’s drop in inflation, underlined worries that the US is exposed to a possible global double-dip recession.

Interestingly, the website reported that other countries that suffer high debt ratios may soon be exposed which could further escalate the crisis.

One rumour abounding on Thursday was that a major rating agency will soon have to downgrade Japan’s credit score, potentially bringing the world’s second-biggest economy into the spotlight.

If the latest rumor comes to fruition, the recent decline in stock prices could be just the beginning of another prolonged bear market that could trigger the world economies into a state of depression.

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Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Will The EU’s Collapse Push The World Deeper Into The Great Depression II?

Courtesy of Timothy D. Naegele[1]

First World War

“For want of a nail . . .  the kingdom was lost.”[2] Will Greece’s debt crisis lead to a Greek debt default and the collapse of the euro and an ensuing collapse of the 27-member European Union (or EU), and trigger the next round of crashes that will be described by economic historians decades from now as “the Great Depression II”?[3] The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife in Sarajevo, Serbia brought the tensions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia to a head.  In turn, it is said this triggered a chain of international events that embroiled Russia and the major European powers; and World War I broke out in Europe.[4] Will Greece’s debt crisis set a series of events in motion that sends the world into a downward economic spiral of unfathomable proportions?

For years, I have wrestled with the question of whether the Europe would collapse economically, politically, socially and militarily.  Sounds absurd, you say?  The countries are too interwoven and mutually dependent now for that to happen, and at the very least they will muddle along, making the worst of the best situations, and achieving the lowest common denominator?  The United States of Europe, they are not and never will be, but they have achieved a degree of cohesiveness that I never thought was likely years ago.

I believed jealousies and rivalries and, yes, the hatreds of the past would linger barely beneath the surface, coming unglued at the most inopportune times when it really mattered the most.  When the chips were down, I felt the EU would splinter and fall apart; and that its participants and the world would write it off as a noble experiment that failed, much like the League of Nations.  After all, its successor—the United Nations—is considered to be a colossal joke by Americans, many of whom would love to see it shipped to Europe, and its building on the East River in Manhattan bulldozed and turned into a park, or made into co-ops or condominiums.

The bitter hatreds of the past seem to have subsided in Europe though, and it has become a cultural melting pot, more and more.  Airbus was the first tangible sign of economic integration that I never thought would…
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Zero Hedge

Futures Spike After Banks Unveil Tens Of Billions In Buybacks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Betwen BofA, Citi, JPMorgan, and now Goldman, (and excluding MS for now), announced buybacks totalling over $24 billion have sent US equity futures spiking after hours.

  • Bank of America Authorizes $5b Buyback; Boosts Div to 7.5c-Share
  • Citigroup Plans $8.6b Buyback; Lifts Qtr Div to 16c From 5c
  • JPMorgan Chase Plans $10.6b Buyback, Maintains qtr Div at 48c/shr
  • Goldman Sachs plans buybacks of stock, boosts quarterly dividend

Futures are up across the board... no matter what exposure to financials t...



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Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Back in the Green Year-to-Date

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

On global basis, equity markets have essentially discounted last week's Brexit vote. Today's rally, to one decimal place, put the Nikkei up 1.6%, the DAX 1.8%, the CAC 2.6% and the FTSE 3.6%. Our benchmark S&P 500 rose 1.7% today, just a tad off its 1.82% intraday high shortly before the close. The index is now back in the green year-to-date, up 1.31%.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

Treasuries, however, have not shown the same reversal. Here is a a 15-minute overlay of the 500 and the CBOE 10-year Treasury yield index over the last eight sessions. Note that the two were moving in tandem prior to the Brexit vote and during the two day selloff following the vote. But during the last two sessions, equi...



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Phil's Favorites

Here We Go Again: Nate Silver Says "79% Chance Clinton Wins"; Battleground Bloodbath

Courtesy of Mish.

Nate Silver is back at it. Politico reports Nate Silver: 79 Percent Chance Clinton Wins.

Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.

FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office.

“Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silv...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Stocks are climbing again (Business Insider)

Futures are higher for a second straight day since the sell-off after the UK referendum last week. The pound is also higher. 

5 Things to Watch in the Fed’s Stress Test Results (Wall Street Journal)

Wednesday may be the most important day of the year for large U.S. banks, with the Federal Reserve set to release its verdicts on whether they have passed or failed annual stress tests. The 33 large U.S. banks taking...



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ValueWalk

TESARO Inc (TSRO) Shares On Drug Trial Success, Up 1100 Percent

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Shares of TESARO Inc (NASDAQ:TSRO) are super hot today today on Ovarian Cancer results and the rally could continue to be hot until phase 3 results in the fall. The stock is up at the time of this written by over $40, 110%, destroying the shorts (at least for today). The sell side are panicing to play catch up with price targets here is what they are saying.

Jefferies:

This morning TESARO Inc (NASDAQ:TSRO reported long-waited Ph3 NOVA data, showing s.s. PFS benefits in both cohorts; plans to file for U.S. & EU approval in 4Q16. Contrary to our cautious stance on non-gBRCAm/HRD+ arm following experts’ discussions, this arm also showed s.s clinically meaningful PFS benefits of ~9mo. AE profile was consistent with Ph1 data (most common Gr3/4 AEs thrombocytopenia, anemia & neutropenia). Full data to b...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

London- Attempting bullish upside breakout, following Brexit

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The media seems to be focused on the Brexit issue, with most of the coverage suggesting it was a negative event. Regardless of the media’s focus, prices are attempting to do something in Europe, that could be bullish and surprise a few investors.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The FTSE 100 Index remains in a long-term bullish trend (lower highs and higher highs) over the past 5-years. The bottom of the rising channel (A) was hit in Fe...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - Week of June 27th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

Thoughts on Brexit

I have mixed feelings about Brexit today. Clearly the European institution need reforming. The addition of so many countries in the last 20 years has created a top heavy administration. The Euro adds more complexities to the equation as the ECB policies cannot fit every country's problem. On the other hand, a unified Europe has advantages as well – some countries have benefited from the integration.

For Britain, it's hard to say what the final price will be. My guess is that Scotland might now vote for independence as they supported staying in Europe overwhelmingly. Northern Ireland might be tempted to leave as well so possibly RIP UK in the long run. I was talking to some French people and they were saying that now there might be no incentive for France to stop immigrants from crossing over to the UK like they do now and simply allow for travel there and let the UK deal with them. The end game is not clear to anyone at the moment....



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles 10%

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

One week ago, when bitcoin first crossed above $700 on the seemingly insatiable Chinese buying which we forecast last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) would take place as a result of China's capital controls (to much pushback by the "mainstream" financial media), we tried to predict what may happen next. We said that "it could go much higher. That said, anyone who bought last September when the digital currency was trading at $230 may be advised to take some profits, and at least make...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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