What else is new in this market? As you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, the pattern is holding up of high-volume (relatively) sell-offs following low-volume run-ups. This is how the Institutional Investors manipulate the markets to dump unwanted shares on retail investors. I've been telling you all week how it works and now we can see it in action.
Of course, it's nice to have this knowledge ahead of time – that's the edge we strive to give to our Members at Philstockworld. Even if you are just reading us for free and don't have access to our Live Member Chat Room, you would have done very well to follow our advice on Tuesday and go with the DIA puts at $166.80 and the DXD longs at $26.20 – it was right there on top of the morning post (which you can have mailed to you every day, pre-market by SUBSCRIBING HERE)! In our Member Chat, the previous day, our trade ideas were:
A 5% pullback on DIA is 8.3 points (830 Dow points), back to $158.40 from here. The June $161 puts are .95 so, if you have $100K to protect against a 10% drop, you can buy $5K worth of the June $161 puts and a 5% drop pays you back $8,000 and a 10% drop to $150 (15,000) would net you $11 per contract so a 10x return is $55,000 back – that's overhedged actually!
On DXD, the July $25/28 spread is $1.10 and is $1.25 in the money so you get all the upside on DXD up to a 140% profit on a very small move down in the Dow. We already have July $28 calls in the STP and it's a little too soon to roll but we will.
On a new trade – you can just get out if the S&P holds 1,900 for more than a day – that's not too far from here.
NYSE 10,000 was clearly the right line and 10,500 is the 5% line and 10,750 is 7.5% with the NYSE now at 10,667. Another reason we don't move the Must Hold lines is the NYSE has given no indication at all that it will be able to go over 11,000 (10% line) and we're back the tugboat that holds the others back.
RUT 1,100 is the 10% line and 1,200 is the 20% line and the RUT moves like the only thing trading it is a computer running on the 5% Rule. Complete obedience of the lines makes it fantastic to trade – except the direction it moves is quick and seemingly random! Still, 1,100 is a very good floor (so bullish above) and 1,200 has been too hard to hold (so short below) and, at the moment, it's fallen into the lowest quadrant of that range – not able to stay over 1,125. That indicates a downward bias as it makes a triangle squeezy thingy down there (and it's below the 200 dma at 1,115 at the moment).
So, either the RUT comes out of the triangle squeezy thingy to the downside and drags the others with it or the Dow, NYSE and S&P pop over their resistance and bring the RUT along for the ride. Interesting times indeed…
As you can see from Dave Fry's Russell Chart, the RUT resolved it's triangle sqeezy thingy to the downside – after the requisite head-fake and now we're back to the…
A lot of investors have been saying "Phuket" lately and they can only be referring to the annual Patong Carnival in Thailand, where the tourist bureau wants you to know the tuberculosis outbreak is "under control." Actually, it’s an amazingly beautiful place with great people – must be why so many people keep mentioning it when starting at the markets this week…
As I mentioned yesterday, we had to flip bullish because our bearish bets were no fun and we felt that A) the bottom was a little forced in order for Timmy to peddle his T-Bills and B) that Santa Clause is coming to town. Actually, we had plenty of bearish bets from when the market was high so we needed the bullish bets to get BALANCE!
Balance was the theme of our virtual White Christmas Portfolio and we added another $3,615 in gains over the past two weeks to bring us very close to a triple at $42,925 off our $15,000 start back on November 21st. This is a very aggressive virtual portfolio where we are practicing the art of hit and run trading. The positions we closed in the last 9 sessions were bullish bets with FAS, XLF, FAS, DIA, GLD, XLF, FAS and XLF and bearish bets with GLL, TZA, FAS (spread), USO, DIA, TZA, DIA, DIA, DIA, DXD. See – BALANCE!
We thought the market would go up and down (I know, such a stretch!) and the markets did, in fact go up AND down with an AVERAGE swing of 1.5% PER DAY but, in the end, we’re still consolidating around our Must Hold lines and right back where we were at the last options expiration day of November 18th – causing almost all puts and calls sold to sucker a month ago to expire worthless. Isn’t it a funny coincidence how all that seems to work out for the Banksters?
As I reminded our Members, our cynical motto at PSW is "We don’t care IF the game is fixed, as long as we can figure out HOW the game is fixed and place our bets accordingly."
Whitney Tilson’s T2 Partners continues to outperform the market despite the recent volatility. T2 was down just 2.8% in May while the S&P 500 declined 8%. Tilson has been particularly prescient over this market cycle and was a notable real estate bear heading into the credit crisis. Despite the recent market disruption Tilson is not concerned that we are repeating 2008. In his May letter to clients Tilson detailed his market outlook:
“So if last month was analogous to late 2007, is the situation today like early 2008 (in which case, we should still be battening down the hatches)? We don’t know for sure, but probably not. We think the most likely scenario is more years of the choppy, range-bound market that we’ve been in for more than a decade – and that’s fine with us, as it rewards good bottoms-up stock picking, which is our forte.”
Tilson has been buying the weakness and using the opportunity to purchase more of some of his favorite positions:
“During the month, we did what we normally do when the market has violent swings: the precise opposite of the herd. On weakness, we initiated a few new long positions, added to some existing holdings like General Growth Properties, and trimmed certain shorts like Simon Properties Group, which we owned primarily as an industry hedge against GGP and felt was no longer necessary with GGP falling into the $12 range. “
Tilson’s fund isn’t positioned for sunny skies, however. He continues to maintain a substantial short book and feels extremely confident in the continued outlook for hedging strategies over the coming years:
“As you might expect, our long book dropped significantly (though not as much as the market), while our shorts offset much of these losses. Losers of note on the long side were Liberty Acquisition Corp. warrants (-52.2%), Resource America (-33.7%), Borders Group (which we have mostly exited) (-22.4%), American Express (-13.6%), General Growth Properties (-10.7%) and Berkshire Hathaway (-8.2%). In the plus column were Iridium, with the stock up 12.4% and the warrants up 21.9%, and EchoStar, up 9.5%.
On the short side, our largest position, InterOil, tumbled 26.5% (in addition, the puts we own jumped 70.2%), MBIA fell 22.2%, DineEquity dropped 17.9%, and the homebuilder ETF (ITB) declined 11.5%. “
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
The BCI at 179.2 is up from last week’s 178.5. The BCIg, the smoothed annualized growth of BCI, at 22.2 is at its highest level in the current business cycle, rising from last week's 21.6. This week’s BCI does not indicate a possible recession in the near future.
Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession. Figure 2 plots the history of BCI, BCIg, and the LOG(S&P500) since July 1967, i.e. the last 44 years which include seven recessions, each which the BCI managed to indicate timely.
Yesterday, Navi Pillay, the UN rights chief told an emergency session of the council on Wednesday that Israel's military actions in Gaza could amount to war crimes.
Shortly thereafter, the 47-member council voted (and adopted) a draft resolution titled "Ensuring respect for international law in the Occupied Palestinian Territory" to conduct an investigation whether Israel is indeed engaging in war crimes. Note: this was a vote just to conduct an investigation, nothing more nothing less, no military intervention, no aid, nothing: just an attempt to get some information aside from the constant propaganda barrage.
Steel giant ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) has completed the divestment of its 78% stake in European port handling and logistics company ATIC Services S.A. (ATIC) to HES Beheer for €155.4 million (roughly $213 million).
With this transaction, HES Beheer now owns 100% stake in ATIC where it previously held 22% stake. The transaction reflects ArcelorMittal`s strategy of selective deposal of non-core assets.
ArcelorMittal posted a net loss of $0.2 billion or 12 cents per share in first-quarter 2014, narrower than a net loss of $0.3 billion or 21 cents a year ago.
Revenues inched up 0.2% year over year to $19.8 billion in the reported quarter. Sales were almost unchanged from the prior quarter as improved steel shipments were partly offset by lower...
A large call spread initiated on Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Ticker: OREX) on Monday morning looks for shares in the name to rally approximately 30% by September expiration. The September expiration is noteworthy as the company awaits the results of the FDA’s review of its resubmitted New Drug Application (NDA) for NB32, an investigational medication being evaluated for weight loss, after the review was extended for three months back in June. The upcoming Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date is September 11, 2014, according to a press release issued by the company. Shares in Orexigen today are up roughly 0.40% at $5.34 as of 2:15 p.m. ET.
Despite a highly eventful week in the news, not much has changed from a stock market perspective. No doubt, investors have grown immune to the daily reports of geopolitical turmoil, including Ukraine vs. Russia for control of the eastern regions, Japan’s dispute with China over territorial waters, Sunni vs. Shiite for control of Iraq, Christians being driven out by Islamists, and other religious conflicts in places like Nigeria and Central African Republic. But last Thursday’s news of the Malaysian airliner tragically getting shot down over Ukraine, coupled with Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, had the makings of a potential Black Swan event, which in my view is the only thing that could derail the relentless bull march higher in stocks.
Nevertheless, when it became clear that the airline...
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about."
All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely. From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.
First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices. Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment. Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer. For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...
I just wanted to be sure you saw this. There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.
If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.
Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.
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