Testy Tuesday – Dow 12,000 or Dow 11,500?
by Phil - June 14th, 2011 8:26 am
Are we "still too heavy"?
That was what I said about valuations back on May 4th, when we set new watch levels. $96 was our goal on oil, we hit that and went long yesterday. Of course, in our upside-down Wonderland Market, falling oil prices are somehow BAD for the Transports and we thought we accounted for that with our 2,448 target but they failed that last week and fell another 125 (5%) since then. Similarly (easier to write than say), the Nasdaq blew through our 2,700 line and bottomed out at 2,639 yesterday (-2.25%) but the Russell has been the biggest surprise, leading us all the way down to 773 in yesterday’s action before bouncing back to lucky 777.
As we expected yesterday, the Dollar was sacrificed on the altar of keeping the markets from going to Hell in a handbasket – dropping all the way from 75.20 to 74.80 (0.5%) which gave us only a flat market but the 74.60 line held in overnight and we’re back to 74.80 and now the pre-markets are wondering why they gained 0.75% in overnight trading. Oil popped all the way back to $97.80 before failing spectacularly back to $96.50 but we have stayed on the sidelines so far, waiting to see if we can establish a new (hopefully lower) range to trade in.
We did take a poke at higher oil prices with the USO July $39 calls at $1.10 and they finished the day right at $1.10 so very dull so far but we figured oil might be good for a pop into Wednesday’s inventories. We also shed most of our bearish bets on yesterday’s dip and flipped fairly bullish but we haven’t done a lot of bottom fishing yet as our main plan is to use a fake market rally to cash out the longs we have left and flip short into the holiday weekend. As the moment though, I have noticed that the Dow has been holding up much better than it’s peers and we have that lovely 12,000 line to use as a stop so let’s construct a short hedge that pays big bucks below 12,000:
Notice how the Dow is holding up better than the other indices. Part of that is a flight to safety as several Dow components are considered "safety stocks" like KFT, MCD, JNJ… But, in the long haul, they all fall down eventually so we…
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DiggWild Weekly Wrap-Up (Part 1) – Our Billion Dollar Oil Shorts!
by Phil - June 11th, 2011 6:08 am
That’s how much money our oil futures trade ideas generated over the past two weeks and I certainly hope everyone got a piece of theirs but, out of curiosity, how did our other trade ideas do in this terrible market? We track our virtual portfolios but we have many trade ideas during members chat on both sides of the fence so let’s take some time to review what worked and what didn’t work as the Dow dropped 500 points since the holiday.
Keep in mind this is just virtual performance and I’ll do my best to not miss anything and I’m going to include the Friday before the holiday weekend so we can review what our mind-set was as we set ourselves up for the long weekend as well as how we handled the moves since in both our daily posts and our Member Chat. I’m not going to narrate each day, that’s what Stock World Weekly is for – I’ll just make quick comments on the trades when appropriate. Keep in mind, with all options trading, once you make a quick 20%, you should be looking for the exits (see our Strategy Section) by setting stops (and we also stop out with a 20% loss of course) – we are just lucky when we happen to do better.
TGIF – Dollar Done Diving or Destined to Drop?
In the main post (main post trade ideas can be read daily by Report Members or higher – the rest are in our Private Member Chat), I discussed shorting oil futures off our $101.90 (at the time) target. We didn’t like waiting for $102 because sometimes it failed. Oil finished at $99 this week but was as low as $97.24 as we put pressure on the NYMEX pump crew by accepting their bogus offers to buy oil over $101 per barrel. This post was the first one where I decided to go public with what we were doing, hoping to break the back of the market manipulators at the NYMEX by letting as many people as possible in on the trade. This is also where I laid out our bearish fundamental case for oil so good for review. My comment in the morning post was:
As I mentioned yesterday, this week’s action is
…
Fickle Friday – Google Goes Down as Costs Inflate
by Phil - April 15th, 2011 8:19 am
Well who’d have thunk it?
The cost of doing business is rising and GOOG happens to be one of those businesses that lacks pricing power as their rates are generally set through an auction process and their users have to VOLUNTEER to pay more money to advertise. Most advertisers on Google are on fixed budgets, like MSM advertisers and Google has done a great job of replicating that model. Why then, should it be surprising if a maturing Google begins to look more like a traditional media outlet than a dot com company with exploding growth?
Don’t get me wrong, we love Google long-term but we did short them as well as BIDU into Google earnings as we felt Google would disappoint enough to spook BIDU investors as well. We’re taking the short money and running and looking for some bullish plays now – the drop from $630 last month to $545 today is plenty of froth blown off the top for us to get long-term interested again. As you can see from the tag cloud of the Conference Call, growth is still there, especially in mobile display ads (Android a bit disappointing) and no major negatives. I’m not going to write a whole thing about GOOG though, there are thousands of people doing that and our Members know well enough where I stand. I’m more interested in examining the bigger picture.
We expected Q1 earnings to be rough and we’ve already seen FDX, NKE, ORCL, RIMM, FAST, FCS and AA struggle so hopefully you don’t have to be hit on the head with another whole week of earnings before you get a little more cautious. Next week we hear from C, HAL, LLY, TXN, BK, GS, INTC, IBM, SYK, USB, VMW and YHOO on Monday and Tuesday and then we’re off to the races with hundreds of companies reporting each week for the rest of the month. Our job in the first few weeks of earnings season is to get a feel for the quarter and, so far, that feeling is rough.
It’s all about inflation, of course and don’t say we didn’t warn you about that one! We went more bearish up at those 100% lines we’ve been watching and now the question really is – how bad was it? Inflation is, after all, our long-term BULLISH premise. We don’t think corporations…
Testy Tuesday – AAPL Rebalancing in May May Keep the Nasdaq from 2,800 Today
by Phil - April 5th, 2011 8:18 am
The Nasdaq is finally rebalancing!
That is good news but not so much for Apple, Inc., whose current 20.49% weighting in the index will be cut to 12.33% on May 2nd. This explains a lot of the strange movement in the Nasdaq as apparently the cognescenti have already begun jockying their positions – trying to guess which of the 100 stocks in the Composite Index will curry some of AAPL’s lost favor.
Perhaps the the moves up in fellow 4-letter stocks like PCLN ($25Bn market cap), NFLX ($13Bn), OPEN ($2.5Bn), BIDU ($50Bn) and GMCR ($9.4Bn) don’t seem quite so crazy in light of the 40% reduction in AAPL ($314Bn) – take the money out of one bucket and you HAVE to fill up the others!
This does make me feel better as there may actually be a rational reason for NFLX having a p/e of 82 despite the fact that they have a completely indefensible service that already has competition from several on-line clones as well as big boys like AMZN, not to mention every cable and satellite company in America. Why does WFMI, a GROCERY STORE, trade at 41 times it’s projected 2011 earnings in the middle of the worst food inflation in US history? It’s not just because rich people are stupid and will overpay for anything because they hate to have people think they can’t afford stuff – it’s because their market cap is $11.4Bn and if you take 40% of AAPL’s $300Bn and distribute it around the Nasdaq – then WFMI get’s $1.2Bn of additional allocation.
That’s not exactly how it works but that’s the effect. A $1Bn Index fund who follows the Nasdaq has $205M of AAPL stock (20.49%) and, after the reweighing, they are to have $123M of AAPL stock. The other $82M does, in fact, get distributed to the other Nasdaq stocks according to the new weightings. Do you think that doesn’t distort the markets? Of course, that doesn’t "just" affect the Nasdaq – AAPL is a heavyweight in all the indexes.
The special rebalancing of the NASDAQ-100 Index will be enacted based on index securities and shares outstanding as of March 31 – now it is very clear why the MoMo stocks were jacked up like crazy into the end of Q1 – now the market manipulators have guaranteed bagholders for their stocks come May 2nd! On…
Warren Buffett’s Secret to Making 100% a Year
by Phil - February 26th, 2011 10:51 am
I love the Berkshire Hathaway annual report!
Especially Warren Buffett’s letter to shareholders. The report gives us a great view of the overall economy from a man who has his finger in every pot and his letter to investors gives us a very good insight as to how things are going in the various sectors his operations cover. Most importantly, what I have learned in my own 40 years or reading Mr. Buffett’s reports (my Grandfather was a shareholder) is what should shape any long-term investing strategy: Patience and performance.
I often preach to members the joys of letting gains compound and our $25,000-$100,000 Virtual Portfolio, which is currently at $27,531 (up 10%) after 4 weeks, is an exercise in how to quickly compound small gains over the course of a year. Primarily, we try to follow Warren Buffett’s Number One Rule of Investing, which is: Don’t Lose Money. Buffett’s Rule #2 is: See Rule #1 and like us, it’s not that nothing Warren Buffett ever buys loses money – it’s just that he doesn’t ever buy things he isn’t willing to stick with UNTIL they make money. Sure we take a few losses along the road but, by being selective in our entries, we don’t discard stocks that we carefully selected just because the market temporarily disagrees with our valuations.
In our $25,000 Virtual Portfolio, it’s only been a month so we’ve only closed our winners so far and they were SPWRA with a 100% gain (these are option trades), INTC with a 40% gain, NFLX with a 42% gain, EDZ with a 75% gain, XLF with a 15% gain, VIX with a 50% gain, USO with a 53% gain and XLE with a 5% gain. In 19 trading day we have made 28 virtual portfolio moves (counting each leg) and, as I said, netted a 10% return to date. Interestingly, we’ve been playing it very cautious as we still have over $18,000 of virtual cash on the sidelines, hoping for a sign to get a little more aggressive next week.
How, you may wonder, are we going to get to $100,000 by December with just $27,531 in February? THAT is the lesson Warren Buffett has to give us and that lesson is COMPOUNDING RETURNS! Since 1965, Berkshire Hathaway has returned an overall gain of 490,409% to it’s shareholders. $10,000 handed…
F’ing Dip Thursdsay – Do We Buy It?
by Phil - January 20th, 2011 8:06 am
Just buy the f’ing dip.
That’s the great advice we had back on December 2nd, as it was pointed out by Captain Broccoli that we should just ignore all the so-called "facts" of the economy and "just borrow money at this ridiculous low interest rate and just buy the f’ing dip." "It’s not a pyramid scheme, you idiot," says the Captain – "It’s a dip buying scheme!" So far, on every little dip we have had since December 2nd – the Captain has had the winning strategy – do we dare ignore his sage advice today?
Yesterday we had the biggest pullback since November 23rd with the Russell and the SOX, two of our most over-extended indexes, falling 2.5% in a single day. The Russell essentially gave up an entire month’s worth of gains in a single day because, as I have warned you over and over and over until I myself was bored hearing it, it has been a low-volume rally and the pure physics of the situation means that, when people finally want to sell stocks, there aren’t enough buyers in the world to support the prices they have run up to.
The Shanghai, which we’ve been watching closely, dropped another 3% today to 4-month lows this morning. We did the chart of the Shanghai vs the Hang Seng on Friday, when I was droning on about how weak the real Global economy is and how dangerous inflation was looking and how the government was papering it all over, etc. Even so, I reminded Members in Chat that none of that reality mattered and we still had to buy the dips until it stopped working. Is today the day or have we finally reached the end of the gravy train?
We did some hedged buying on Friday with new long-term bullish trade ideas on AAPL, AET, BAC, GENZ and INTC (2) as well as shorter-term bullish trade ideas on CSTR (April) and ABX (quick 50% profit and done). We also had a short play on PCX (up huge already) and hedged with RKH Feb $85 puts at $1.15 (now $1.80, up 56%) and rolled our losing QID position in the $10,000 Virtual Portfolio to the Feb $10 calls at an average of $1.15 (now .90, down 22%). This is how we can be long-term bullish and short-term bearish. Buying the f’ing…
Options Feeding Frenzy Ensues Ahead of Earnings at Intel, JPMorgan
by Option Review - January 13th, 2011 4:46 pm
Today’s tickers: INTC, JPM, MRVL & YRCW
INTC - Intel Corp. – Large-volume bearish positions cropped up in options on the chip giant this morning ahead of the firm’s much anticipated fourth-quarter earnings release after the final bell ends trading for the session. Intel’s shares are down slightly by 0.30% to stand at $21.24 as of 11:55am in New York. Investors placing outright bearish bets on the stock ahead of the earnings report utilized 60,000 January contract put options to construct a ratio put spread. Ratio put-spreaders purchased 20,000 of the January $21 strike puts for an average premium of $0.34 per contract, and sold 40,000 puts at the lower January $20 strike at an average premium of $0.10 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.14 per contract. The spread positions players to make money if the chip maker’s shares fall 1.8% from the current price of $21.24 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $20.86 by expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $0.86 per contract are available should shares in Intel Corp. decline 5.8% to settle at $20.00 at expiration. The sale of twice as many lower strike puts is a sign that traders do not anticipate an all-out collapse in the price of the underlying. The position will start to work against investors in the event that shares in Intel fall 9.9% from the current value to trade below the effective breakeven price of $19.14 before the contracts expire next week. Bearish sentiment on the stock is also evident at the February $20 strike where around 20,000 puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.31 a-pop. Investors buying the put options make money if INTC shares drop 7.3% to slip beneath the average breakeven price of $19.69 by expiration day in February. Nearly 265,000 option contracts have changed hands on Intel Corp. as of 12:10pm.
JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co. – Options traders are initiating bullish stances on the financial services firm today in the final…
Bullish Players Frequent Las Vegas Sands as Shares Continue to Hit New 52-Week Highs
by Option Review - November 2nd, 2010 8:16 am
Today’s tickers: LVS, INTC, DFS, BIG, SWN, MRVL, XRT & FTNT
LVS - Las Vegas Sands Corp. – Shares of the casino resort operator rallied as much as 3.5% during the trading session to hit an intraday- and new 52-week high of $47.48 on news Macau casino revenue, bolstered by China’s Golden Week holiday, jumped 50% to a record in October. Analysts at Morgan Stanley raised their target price on LVS to $50.00 from $36.00, maintained an ‘overweight’ rating on the stock, upped their EPS estimate on the company for fiscal 2010 to $0.96 a share from $0.69 a share, and increased their EPS forecast for 2011 for LVS to $1.85 per share from $1.19 per share. Options traders are initiating bullish positions on the casino operator today and are currently trading more than 2.2 calls on the stock for each single put option changing hands. Near-term November contract calls and puts are the most popular with less than 30 minutes remaining before the final bell. Bulls sold more than 1,000 puts at the November $45 and $47 strikes to pocket an average premium of $1.23 and $2.10, respectively. Investors short the puts keep the premium received as long as shares exceed the strike prices described by November expiration. Meanwhile, call buyers scooped up 1,600 in-the-money contracts at the November $46 strike for an average premium of $2.63 each. Another 1,100 calls were purchased at the higher November $47 strike for an average premium of $2.14 a-pop. Investors hoping to see LVS shares increase significantly before the year ends purchased some 1,800 calls up at the December $50 strike for an average premium of $2.24 per contract. Traders holding these contracts profit if Las Vegas Sands’ shares surge 10.00% over today’s high of $47.48 to trade above the effective breakeven price of $52.24 by expiration day next month. Options implied volatility on LVS is up 5.7% to arrive at 50.30% as of 3:40 pm in New York trading.
INTC - Intel Corp. – One big options…
Jobless Thursday – America’s Infrastructure Crisis
by Phil - September 9th, 2010 8:13 am
What a disaster!
Not only are our students failing to keep up with the rest of the World but America is close to getting a failing grade in Infrastructure. That’s right, what was once the World’s mightiest and proudest economy, this once great nation of builders has been given an overall grade of D in the American Society of Civil Engineers report on our Infrastructure.
The 2009 Grades include: Aviation (D), Bridges (C), Dams (D), Drinking Water (D-), Energy (D+), Hazardous Waste (D), Inland Waterways (D-), Levees (D-), Public Parks and Recreation (C-), Rail (C-), Roads (D-), Schools (D), Solid Waste (C+), Transit (D), and Wastewater (D-). Awful? Shameful? How about DANGEROUS? Deadly even…
For one thing, The number of high hazard dams—dams that, should they fail, pose a significant risk to human life—has increased by more than 3,000 just since 2007, when there were "just" 1,000 dams at risk and 3,000 to pro actively maintain but the administration refused to fund the project, now the costs have tripled as the situation deteriorates but that’s nothing compared to what happens if just a few of them break completely. 1,819 dams are now in the "high hazard" category and, with the current budget, for every one damn that is reparied, two more become an emergency.
In urban areas, roadway congestion tops 40 percent. According to the report, decades of underfunding and inattention have jeopardized the ability of our nation’s infrastructure to support our economy and facilitate our way of life. At risk of catastrophic failure besides the dams (including levees) are things like our drinking water, sewage systems, bridges, waterways, rail lines, airports, roadways (especially elevated ones) and, of course, our entire electrical grid. Additionally, 7 Billion gallons of clean drinking water is lost every day through leaking pipes – that’s 23 gallons per citizen per day WASTED for want of $11Bn in repairs – don’t bother worrying about it, the last Administration wouldn’t fund it in 2001 or 2006 so why bother now – 10 Trillion gallons later?
The ASCE calculates a 5-year $2.2Tn investment is needed to address the situation, that’s $500Bn (25%) more than it was 5-years ago, when they released their last report and nothing was done by the previous administration. So, rather than having invested in America, putting people to work and improving EVERYONE’s way of life, we spent over $1Tn fighting a war, another $600Bn a year on our regular military operations and gave over $1Tn worth of taxe breaks…
Troubling Tuesday – Bears and Bears and Bears, Oh My!
by Phil - August 31st, 2010 7:32 am
Fear is the mind killer,
Fear is the little death
That brings total Oblivion
I will permit my fear to pass
Over me and through me
And where it has gone
I will turn the inner eye
Nothing will be there
Only I will remain."
That is the Bene Gesserit incantation for bravery from Frank Herbert’s "Dune," one of my favorite books. When the markets turn nasty on us it is time to get analytical, not emotional and we need to let our fear pass over us as we step back and evaluate the situation with fresh eyes, and a calm mind.
Above is a chart of our major indexes and their year-to-date performance. As we tested our -5% lines last week, we added a fresh round of Disaster Hedges, a series of trade ideas that can make 500% or more if the market falls further and in an afternoon Alert to Members yesterday, we added another SDS hedge with a 400% upside. Having some high-reward hedges in your virtual portfolio allows you to set aside just 2% to protect your entire virtual portfolio against a 10% drop in the markets. 10% is A LOT for the markets to fall and, of course, now that they have brakes on the market, we can always add more hedges along the way down. Should the market fall "just" 5%, we STILL make 10% on our hedges and that nets our virtual portfolio (in this example) UP 5% on a 5% drop in the market. If our bullish plays were also hedged with covers – then so much the better!
Most importantly, having a balanced virtual portfolio with hedges allows you to play the market WITHOUT FEAR. Warren Buffett famously advises investors to "Be greedy when others are fearful" and our own PSW Rule #1 is "Always sell into the initial excitement," which doesn’t mean always buy but we look for opportunities to sell fear (naked puts) on a dip, the same way we sell our own positions into spikes up that we consider overdone.
In last week’s "Disaster" article, I wondered if we were in the panic/capitulation part of the above chart and,…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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