Posts Tagged ‘inventory corrections’

Good News Alert! New Orders less Inventory Jumps

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Good News Alert! New Orders less Inventory Jumps

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

A data point that I wouldn’t have looked into directly, but it does show how an inventory correction plus a jump in new orders may lead to a short term bounce in GDP. First lets go David of the Disciplined Investor with the summary: 

Many data points have been cited as green shoots since they are simply "less bad". For example, if earnings continue to decline, but at a lower rate, this has been cited as a positive or green shoot. Well, one data point that is actually positive is the New Orders minus Inventories (NO-I) data point.

Reproduced chart below (original from Argus Research)

GDP vs. ISM

Back to David’s analysis (bold mine):

Ten industries saw new orders increase with five showing declines. The issue, and you (EconomPic) highlighted this in one of your recent posts,

"Mother of All Inventory Corrections"

is the five declining issues are contracting at a larger rate than the 10 growing industries.

Generally, a new orders index number above 48.8 is consistent with an increase in manufacturing orders. The new orders index for June equaled 49.2 although down from 51.1 in May.

In short, I do think it is a pretty positive print. I would like to see the new orders index find some stability though. Lastly, we need to see jobs created and simply come in at a "less bad" number.

I’ll agree that it does point to a possible surprise on the upside in Q3 GDP, but the question remains whether an inventory correction can lead to a prolonged recovery.

Source: ISM / BEA

 


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Zero Hedge

Why So Worried?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

What a bunch of worry warts.

Just because the Fed and Wall Street have driven home ownership rates to an all-time low and increased the number of renters to an all-time high through their warped monetary schemes, while driving rents up at an annual pace of over 8%, why worry?

Just because your monthly rent is at an all-time high, while real median household income is at the same level it was in 1989, why worry?

...

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Phil's Favorites

John Oliver: Puerto Rico Deserves Relief

 

John Oliver: Puerto Rico Deserves Relief

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

You may not agree with this stance, but it’s a really good explanation for how Puerto Rico got into the mess it’s in.

There are headlines crossing wire tonight that the government will not be making a bond payment tomorrow. PR is calling out to the US to make a deal for relief – not necessarily a bailout but the buying of time for a restructuring.

John Oliver explained why the current situation can be blamed mostly on the Puerto R...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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ValueWalk

Berkshire Hathaway 2016 Meeting - Resources And Highlights

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

We are going to have a TON of coverage on the annual meeting but in the meantime I wanted to put some of the best material and coverage I have seen on the meeting – I hope I do a decent job

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Buffett Says Bonds Unattractive, If Not Terrible for Reinsurers (Bloomberg)

Warren Buffett, who built Berkshire Hathaway Inc. by reinvesting premiums from insurance units, said low bond yields have hurt the prospects of that strategy.

A Leak Wounded This Company. Fighting the Feds Finished It Off (Bloomberg)

The first phone call that changed Michael Daugherty’s life came in May 2008. Daugherty was a happy man, running a good business in a nice place. That’s how he talks about it, like the opening five minutes of a movie, setting up how...



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Chart School

First Majastic Silver Wyckoff Friendly

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Sometimes is just works! Wyckoff logic is excellent when all the evidence supports your view.

The traditional Wyckoff logic traders will see the Wyckoff accumulation in this stock. Notice the NetVolume divergence with price, very telling. Point and Figure chart showing off an excellent 'CAUSE', that exploded into a fantastic 'EFFECT'. Some times winning is just too easy!


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PnF Chart, love the 'CAUSE' that was the base for the 'EFFECT'

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NOTE: readthe...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Nasdaq 100- Potentially Very Dangerous Pattern!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

This chart looks at the Nasdaq 100 index over the past 10-years.

A potential “Head & Shoulders” (H&S) topping pattern could be in play, highlighted in red.

Even if this is NOT an H&S topping pattern, the following situation has me watching Tech very closely; the index broke 5-year rising support line (A) last fall and the rally over the past couple of months has it kissing the underside of lines (A) and (B) at (1).

The NDX “Kissed” the underside of dual resistance of late and has turn...



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Biotech

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin About To Soar?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back on September 2, 2015 when bitcoin was trading at $230, we laid out the simplest and most fundamental reason why, irrelevant of one's ideological persuasion with "alternative" or digital currency - bitcoin would soar.

it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the ...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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