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Posts Tagged ‘inventory corrections’

Good News Alert! New Orders less Inventory Jumps

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Good News Alert! New Orders less Inventory Jumps

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

A data point that I wouldn’t have looked into directly, but it does show how an inventory correction plus a jump in new orders may lead to a short term bounce in GDP. First lets go David of the Disciplined Investor with the summary: 

Many data points have been cited as green shoots since they are simply "less bad". For example, if earnings continue to decline, but at a lower rate, this has been cited as a positive or green shoot. Well, one data point that is actually positive is the New Orders minus Inventories (NO-I) data point.

Reproduced chart below (original from Argus Research)

GDP vs. ISM

Back to David’s analysis (bold mine):

Ten industries saw new orders increase with five showing declines. The issue, and you (EconomPic) highlighted this in one of your recent posts,

"Mother of All Inventory Corrections"

is the five declining issues are contracting at a larger rate than the 10 growing industries.

Generally, a new orders index number above 48.8 is consistent with an increase in manufacturing orders. The new orders index for June equaled 49.2 although down from 51.1 in May.

In short, I do think it is a pretty positive print. I would like to see the new orders index find some stability though. Lastly, we need to see jobs created and simply come in at a "less bad" number.

I’ll agree that it does point to a possible surprise on the upside in Q3 GDP, but the question remains whether an inventory correction can lead to a prolonged recovery.

Source: ISM / BEA

 


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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Chart School

Median Household Income Growth: Deflating the American Dream

Courtesy of Doug Short.

What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013. Last year the median (middle) household income was $51,939 -- a tiny increase of 0.3% 2012. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

My study of the Census Bureau's historical data shows a 627% growth in median household incomes from 1967 through 2013. The ride has been bumpy, but it equates to a 4.41% annualized growth rate. Sounds impressive, but if you adjust for inflation using the Census Bureau's method, that nominal 627% total growth shr...



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Zero Hedge

Economic Policy Treats Symptoms, Not Underlying Causes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Logan Albright via Mises Canada,

Take a look at the breathtaking array of government policies designed to fix every conceivable problem citizens might encounter. Look at the laws governing labor unions, minimum wage laws, occupational licensure, unemployment insurance, stimulus spending; look at the endless efforts to improve education through government standards, mandatory testing, earlier and earlier induction of children in schools against the will of their parents, student loan refinancing; look at health care policy. No, wait. Don’t look at health care policy. It...



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Credit Suisse Sees Upside In Tableau Software Inc

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls go down swinging, refusing to give up much ground

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

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In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-r...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

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Image courtesy of Business Insider, Jay Yarow's This Is The Best Description Of How Apple's Business Works Right Now.

 

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Big Prints In VIX Calls

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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

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