By now, everybody knows that the market for collateralized debt obligations was riddled with fraud in the lead-up to the financial crisis. What is less known is the fact that hedge fund managers helped create and inflate the market for these toxic securities specifically so that they could bet against them and profit from the inevitable collapse.
An example of a particularly sordid scheme, orchestrated by hedge fund billionaire John Paulson, was discovered some time ago by David Fiderer, a blogger for the Huffington Post. The information in Fiderer’s blog is rather incriminating, and, of course, the mainstream media is not on the case, so I think it bears repeating.
In a close reading of Wall Street Journal Gregory Zuckerman’s book, “The Greatest Trade Ever”, an otherwise starry-eyed account of Paulson’s bets against the mortgage market, Fiderer discovered this nugget:
Paulson and [partner Paolo Pellegrini] were eager to find ways to expand their wager against risky mortgages. Accumulating it in the market sometimes proved to be a slow process. So they made appointments with bankers at Bear Stearns, Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), and other banks to ask if they would create CDOs that Paulson & Co. could essentially bet against.
As Fiderer explains, Paulson asked the banks to create those CDOs “so that they could be sold to some suckers at close to par. That way, Paulson’s hedge fund could approach some other sucker who would sell an insurance policy, or credit default swap, on the newly minted CDOs. Bear, Deutsche and Goldman knew perfectly well what Paulson’s motivation was. He made no secret of his belief that the CDOs subordinate claims on the mortgage collateral were close to worthless. By the time others have figured out the fatal flaws in these securities which had been ignored by the rating agencies, Paulson could collect up to $5 billion.
“Paulson not only initiated these transactions, he also specified the terms he wanted, identifying which mortgages would be stuffed into the CDOs, and how the CDOs should be structured. Within the overall framework set by Paulson’s team, banks and investors were allowed to do some minor tweaking.”
It is not clear which banks ultimately participated in Paulson’s scam, but Fiderer quotes…
The SEC recently asked John Paulson for information from his fund.
Usually when the SEC asks a hedge fund for information, it’s because they’re in the process of being investigated or are about to be.
But Henny Sender at the Financial Times, believes that the SEC actually just wants it for the purposes of the larger look into synthetic CDOs, and that it probably has little or nothing to do with wrongdoing at the fund itself.
The smart money is betting on moral hazard. From Reuters:
He highlighted the attractive yields on credit issued by GMAC due in Sept 2011, the former General Motors automotive financing company that the U.S. government propped up at the end of 2008.
By Paulson’s thinking, the government involvement is equivalent to an explicit guarantee on GMAC’s finances.
‘So instead of buying (a) Treasury bond which yields 84 basis points, I can buy GMAC which is almost, I consider equivalent to a government bond and I can get 11 percent. That is why we have allocated so much money to this particular security,’ he said.
John Paulson knows the deal. The government has made a policy of bailing out bondholders, and not forcing them to take losses.
He knows this policy is a long-term disaster (hence the gold bet). But if you can’t change it, why not profit from it? A great example of why it’s dangerous to be short (for now). Back in April I warned bears about this problem in More Bailouts and Inflation Loom.
Paulson: Gold is the best currency
Everybody knows Paulson likes gold. In the same article he he offers some interesting insight as to exactly why he’s so bullish.
Even as credit and equity markets looked attractive, he did reiterate his concerns that over the long-term inflation will be a problem because the government’s mountain of stimulus cash will be difficult, politically, to withdraw from the economy.
‘Therefore we are concerned about high rates of inflation in the future. As an investor I became very concerned about having my assets denominated in U.S. dollars,’ he said.
‘So I looked for another currency in which to denominate my assets in. I feel that gold is the best currency.’
We’re starting a regular new feature at TPC in which we’ll summarize some of the most recent macro and micro outlooks from so-called investment gurus. This week’s edition will start with two investors who have handled the crisis (and recovery) remarkably well: John Paulson and Marc Faber. Both have similar macro outlooks:
John Paulson: Paulson made waves in 2008 with his billion dollar gains from the sub-prime crisis. The master wave rider was short all the way down and then reversed his bearish course in stunning fashion as he went long the very same things he made so much money betting against. In late February he referred to the market as the “buying opportunity of a lifetime”. Paulson’s reflation trade is turning out to be another home run. Paulson clearly believes in the Fed’s ability to reflate us out of this mess. In the last 6 months he has made massive bets on gold and gold related equities. In addition, Paulson has put his money on the opposite side of the trade he made a killing in last year – he now owns massive stakes in several large banks including Bank of America as well as the toxic Capital One Financial. Paulson is even putting together money for a “real estate recovery” fund.
His latest 13-F shows an interesting mix of financials, gold and healthcare related names. The hedging behind this allocation is quite brilliant. He owns massive stakes in defensive healthcare names, large stakes in the full blown recovery names (banks) and the gold positions will serve as a hedge against inflation and/or the doomsday scenario. Paulson, clearly believes inflation is likely to occur in the coming years as his bets on hard assets and real estate show.
Marc Faber: Faber has been remarkably prescient over the course of the last few years. He was very bearish throughout all of 2008 and turned bullish on March 9th of 2009 – the day the market bottomed. He even said the market was due for a 6 month rally.
More from the one and only Howard Davidowitz… This time on the banks and the "crisis in commercial real estate", which Howard describes as a "catastrophe."
Aaron Task, TechTicker: Since the government gave banks relief on mark-to-market accounting and the "stress tests" helped engineer a big round of capital-raising last spring, the financial sector has been on a tear.
Now a major debate is occurring over whether the sector remains attractively valued or is living on borrowed time.
On the optimistic side of the ledger, famed hedge fund manager John Paulson is upping his stake in Citigroup, The NY Post reports. Last month, an SEC filing revealed Paulson’s fund taking big stakes in Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Capital One Financial and other financials.
On the other hand, regulators loosened restrictions on private equity firms’ ability to buy failed banks, a nod to the drain on the FDIC’s insurance fund given the failures of the past year – and more expected to come. (On Thursday, the FDIC said the number of banks on its problem watchlist rose to 416 in the second quarter from 305 in Q1, while its insurance fund fell 20% to $10.4 billion. "The decrease in the fund was chiefly caused by an $11.6 billion increase in the money the FDIC set aside for anticipated bank failures," Reuters reports.)
Count Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates among the skeptics, which shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s seen his often grim (albeit entertaining) appearances on Tech Ticker.
"I think the banks have major problems to come," Davidowitz says. "The banks still have tons of toxic assets. [Plus] the shape of the consumer comes right back to the banks with all this credit card debt, student loans, auto loans [going bad] – all of this goes to the banks."
In addition to what he sees as a dire outlook for consumers, commercial real estate "is a catastrophe" and will add to the banks’ woes, Davidowitz says.
Although REITs like Vornado and Simon Property Group have been able to get financing, many property owners are unable to renegotiate terms with their lenders to account…
"It is no exaggeration to say that since the 1980s, much of the global financial sector has become criminalised, creating an industry culture that tolerates or even encourages systematic fraud. The behaviour that caused the mortgage bubble and financial crisis of 2008 was a natural outcome and continuation of this pattern, rather than some kind of economic accident...And yet none of this conduct has been punished in any significant way."
~ Charles Ferguson, Inside Job
"I know that my retirement will make no difference in its [my newspaper's] ca...
We are discreet sheep; we wait to see how the drove is going, and then go with the drove. We have two opinions: one private, which we are afraid to express; and another one – the one we use – which we force ourselves to wear to please Mrs. Grundy, until habit makes us co...
The S&P 500 got off to weak start and, after retracing a modest morning rally, spent most of the day in the shallow red with an intraday low of 0.63%. But in the last seven minutes of trading, the index recovered enough to a make a small gain of 0.14%. This is the fourth advance, the first was Monday's 1.60 surge, but the last three have ranged from 0.05% to 0.17% with today's close near the high of the miserly three-day series.
The index is now up 5.02% for 2012, which is 6.93% off the interim closing high.
From an intermediate perspective, the S&P 500 is 95.2% above the March 2009 closing low and 15.6% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.
Below are two charts of the index, with and without the 50 and 200-day moving averages.
TIF - Tiffany & Co., Inc. – A surprise earnings miss and a reduced full-year profit and sales forecast from luxury jewelry retailer, Tiffany & Co., took some of the luster out of its shares today, with the stock trading down 8.5% at $56.55 as of 11:50 a.m. in New York. Options activity on Tiffany this morning suggests mixed sentiment on the st...
RealNetworks, Inc. (NASDAQ: RNWK) today announced that it has reached an agreement with the Washington State Attorney General over discontinued e-commerce practices. In accordance with the settlement agreement, RealNetworks has committed to:
Discontinuing the use of pre-checked boxes for purchases of RealNetworks subscription products; Spelling out more clearly the material terms of RealNetworks product offerings; Offering online cancellation of subscription offerings; Enhancing RealNetworks customer support guidelines regarding cancellation. Statement from Thomas Nielsen, President & CEO of RealNetworks:
"About two years ago, the Washington State Attorney General's Office contacted us regarding concerns they had with some of our e-commerce practices.
To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...
First we'll go to the technicals. Back in mid April I had opined a 'bear flag' formation was being created. [Apr 17, 2012: Potential Bear Flag Forming] But the market being the difficult beast it is, head faked everyone and rather than a break down from said flag it first went UP and nearly touched yearly highs. This caused everyone to think the bear flag had failed…. only to lead to a horrid May in the market. Generally a bear flag will resolve relatively quickly but the longer...
Despite the fact that U.S. equities are well-positioned and well-supported to go up, once again it is the headlines out of Europe—especially Greece—that are scaring off investors. Some are saying that it is now likely (and even desirable) that Greece will default on all its sovereign debt, withdraw from the euro, and severely devalue its domestic currency (Drachma?). This will allow them to operate a balanced budget while pumping cash into growth initiatives, rather than suffer the ravages of Germany-mandated austerity.
Some say, so what? Greece makes up only about 2% of the Eurozone’s overall economy. Nevertheless, you might say that t...
Markets died and then rallied to flat again as European leaders “prepared contingencies” for a possible Grexit
Markets died hard and fast earlier today as major indexes registered as much as 1.5% of losses after news that Euro zone officials were unofficially “preparing contingencies” for a Greek exit from the Euro. Unofficial statements were not enough to keep markets down however, as major indexes rallied back to flat levels by the end of the day.
So the world continues to wait on Europe, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEACA:SPY) gained .05%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:...
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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
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In this article, please revisit an article written two years ago titled, "The Calm Before the Storm." This article focused on the patent cliff that was looming in the pharmaceutical industry, that was later picked up by the New York Times and several other bloggers! Subsequent articles were written about big pharma company's revenue streams, and the pros and cons of of their later stage pipelines. Other articles have also attempted to identify smaller biotechs with the potential to reap big reward...
My last weekend update is dated from January 30 so after a long hiatus, here is an update of our virtual portfolio. Since the last update, we have closed the AA Money portfolio due to a lack of enthusiasm (and activity) and I have stopped tracking the FAS strangle as the low VIX makes it hard to get rewarded for the risk! But we have added a small $5KP virtual portfolio which does not use any margin.
FAS Money
We have had to recover from a big move up by FAS and a low VIX which keeps option prices low. But the portfolio has gaine about 10% since the last update.
Last update P&L - $5499.00
IWM Money
Not a lot of activity in this portfolio where the main focus is on the large IWM BCS. But the portfolio has grown over 20% since the last update.
Last update P&L - $1998.00
$5KP Portfolio
This is the virtual portfolio that replaced the AA Money portfolio. It does not use margin and we will keep holdings under $5K.
AAPL $50K P...
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By now, everybody knows that the market for collateralized debt obligations was riddled with fraud in the lead-up to the financial crisis. What is less known is the fact that hedge fund managers helped create and inflate the market for these toxic securities specifically so that they could bet against them and profit from the inevitable collapse.
“Paulson not only initiated these transactions, he also specified the terms he wanted, identifying which mortgages would be stuffed into the CDOs, and how the CDOs should be structured. Within the overall framework set by Paulson’s team, banks and investors were allowed to do some minor tweaking.”
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(