Posts Tagged ‘Junk bonds’

Mad Dash Into Junk Sets October Record

Mad Dash Into Junk Sets October Record

Courtesy of Mish 

The mad dash into junk bonds continues. Please consider Junk Sets October Record, Mortgage Bonds Rally

Sales of junk bonds in the U.S. set a record for October as returns topped investment-grade debt and more borrowers were raised than cut. Government-backed mortgage bonds may beat Treasuries by the most in at least 10 years.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. and Calpine Corp. led speculative-grade companies issuing $33 billion of debt this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The notes have gained 2.32 percent on average in October, compared with a loss of 0.16 percent for high-grade securities, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Index data show. Not since March have high-yield, high-risk securities outperformed by such a wide margin.

Investors have driven relative yields down to the lowest in five months on confidence the Federal Reserve will flood the economy with money, allowing the neediest borrowers to access capital and refinance debt. The rally is robust enough to extend into next year, said James Murren, chief executive officer of Las Vegas-based casino operator MGM Resorts International, which sold $500 million of notes rated CCC+ on Oct. 25.

“The bond market will get better,” Murren said yesterday in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. “People are going to start to have a more positive outlook toward 2011. They’re going to be searching for yield and they’re going to go down the rating scale and that’s going to benefit companies like us.”

U.S. junk bonds have gained 14.4 percent this year, compared with the record 57.5 percent in all of 2009. The 1.96 percent increase this month in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield & Emerging Markets Plus index exceeds gains on the Global Broad Market Corporate Index by 215 basis points, after outperforming by 233 basis points last month.

Global corporate bonds have lost 0.19 percent in October, after rising 0.22 percent in September and the worst performance since losing 0.4 percent in May. Year-to-date returns total 8.84 percent.

Lehman High Yield Bond ETF

S&P 500 Weekly Chart 

Buy the Dip?

The last two downturns in January and May of 2010 were buying opportunities. Will buy the dip work next time? Fundamentally I see no reason it should, but that does not mean it won’t.

I have been saying for 18


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Investors Plow Into Junk Bonds; Junk Bond Sales at Record Highs

Investors Plow Into Junk Bonds; Junk Bond Sales at Record Highs

Courtesy of Mish 

With 10-year treasuries yielding a mere 2.39%, and with 5-year treasuries at an all time low yield of 1.1%, investors have plowed into the riskiest of junk bonds with reckless abandon.

Please consider Bond Distress at 5-Month Low as Junk Rallies

The percentage of corporate bonds considered in distress fell to a five-month low as record sales of high-yield debt and declining borrowing costs convince investors the riskiest companies can pay their lenders.

The number of speculative-grade companies worldwide with yields at least 10 percentage points more than government bonds declined to 290, or 12 percent of the total, the lowest share since April and down from 15.9 percent at the end of August, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.

Junk-rated borrowers globally sold a record $98.9 billion of bonds last quarter as investors sought higher relative yields, helping the weakest companies shore up their balance sheets. Defaults by high-yield issuers fell to 4 percent last month from 6.2 percent in June, Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday.

At least $13.2 billion of junk bonds have been sold this month, bringing the global total to an all-time high of $263.5 billion, 26 percent higher than the full-year record set in 2009, Bloomberg data show. Junk bond sales in the U.S. have reached $208.9 billion this year, the data show.

“This is obviously a case of too much money chasing too few good bonds,” said Don Ross, who helps oversee $9.5 billion of assets as global strategist for Titanium Asset Management Corp. in Cleveland. “It’s just money changing hands and corporations being the net gainer by being able to issue cheaper and have better balance sheets. In the long run that will help the economy, but holy mackerel, at what cost?”

High-yield spreads in the U.S., which fell yesterday to 613 basis points, are “within shouting distance” of the historical average of 598 basis points, a milestone that doesn’t indicate the market has “run too far too fast,” Martin Fridson, global credit strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said Oct. 6 in an e-mail.

“Investors are being well compensated for risk and talk of a bubble in high-yield bonds is misguided,” Fridson said.

Average Times These Are Not

Saying junk bonds are not in a bubble compared to average times only


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The Low-Interest-Rate Trap

The Low-Interest-Rate Trap

Courtesy of John Rubino of Dollar Collapse 

Cannon Beach, Oregon, USA

Pretend for a second that you recently retired with a decent amount of money in the bank, and all you have to do is generate a paltry 5% to live in comfort for the rest of your days. But lately that’s been easier said than done. Your money market fund yields less than 1%. Your bond funds are around 3% and your bank CDs are are down to half the rate of a couple of years ago. Stocks, meanwhile, are down over the past decade and way too volatile in any event. If you don’t find a way to generate that 5% you’ll have to start eating into capital, which screws up your plan, possibly leaving you with more life than money a decade hence.

Now pretend that you’re running a multi-billion dollar pension fund. You’ve promised the trustees a 7% return and they’ve calibrated contributions and payouts accordingly. But nothing in the investment-grade realm gets you anywhere near 7%. If you come up short, the plan’s recipients won’t get paid in a decade or – the ultimate horror – you’ll have to ask the folks paying in to contribute more, which means you’ll probably be scapegoated out of a job.

In either case, what do you do? Apparently you start buying junk bonds. According to Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, junk issuance is soaring as desperate investors snap up whatever paper promises to get them the yield they’ve come to depend on. Here’s an excerpt:

‘Junk’ Bonds Hit Record

U.S. companies issued risky “junk” bonds at a record clip this week, taking advantage of keen investor appetite for returns amid declining interest rates and tepid stock markets.

The borrowing binge comes as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates near zero and yields on U.S. government debt are near record lows. Those low rates have spread across a variety of markets, making it cheaper for companies with low credit ratings to borrow from investors.

Corporate borrowers with less than investment-grade ratings sold $15.4 billion in junk bonds this week, a record total for a single week, according to data provider Dealogic. The month-to-date total, $21.1 billion, is especially high for August, typically a quiet month that has seen an average of just $6.5 billion in issuance over the past decade.

For the year, the volume of U.S.


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The Financial Crisis Is Everywhere a Fraud, and Official Complacency Inevitably Leads to a Crisis

The Financial Crisis Is Everywhere a Fraud, and Official Complacency Inevitably Leads to a Crisis

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

"A revolution is coming — a revolution which will be peaceful if we are wise enough; compassionate if we care enough; successful if we are fortunate enough — But a revolution which is coming whether we will it or not. We can affect its character; we cannot alter its inevitability." Robert F. Kennedy, 9 May 1966

The Fed is now engaged in a control fraud, and what appears to be racketeering in conjunction with a few big investment banks. They may have entered into it with good intentions, but they seem to have been turned towards deceit and corruption.

This is not an historical event, but an ongoing theft in conjunction with a number of Wall Street banks, and politicians whom they have paid off through a corrupt system of campaign financing and influence peddling.

This is nothing new in history if one reads the unsanitized version. But people never think it can happen today, that somehow yesterday things were different, as if one is looking at some distant, foreign land. This is a facet of the illusion of general progress.

Audit the Fed. Vote out incumbents until they give you what you demand. Take back the billions stolen through millionaire’s taxes similar to those in place before the ‘Reagan Revolution.’ If there is no profit in theft, it will not happen. EU Puts Tough Restrictions on Banker’s Bonuses.

The individuals in government are not a ruling class, and were never intended to be, although after a second term they start to feel themselves to be privileged, with better pensions and benefits and pay raises than the people whom they serve. These are your chosen representatives, sworn to uphold the law and governing with your consent. The United States is not the Congress, the Supreme Court and the Executive in Washington, it is the people joined freely by their mutual consent under the Constitution. It is of the people, by the people, and for the people.

Goldman Sachs, AIG, and the NY Fed are at the heart of it. Everyone in the government, the media, and on the Street knows this. We are now in the coverup stage of a scandal, similar to Watergate when the White House was stone-walling. The difference is that the corruption and capture of the government…
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Corporate Bonds Smacked, Yields Rise, Deals Pulled; Treasuries Rally; Yield Curve Flattens; Global Slowdown Coming

Corporate Bonds Smacked, Yields Rise, Deals Pulled; Treasuries Rally; Yield Curve Flattens; Global Slowdown Coming

Courtesy of Mish

The 30-year long bond is sitting just 3 basis points away from hitting a 3-handle and the yield on 5-year treasuries is 1.94 after hitting 2.60 in April. That is quite a reversal.

Yield on the 10-year note is at 3.13% a price last seen a year ago.

Meanwhile, Libor Shows Strain, Sales Dwindle, Spreads Soar

Corporate bond sales are poised for their worst month in a decade, while relative yields are rising the most since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse, as the response by lawmakers to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis fails to inspire investor confidence.

Companies have issued $47 billion of debt in May, down from $183 billion in April and the least since December 1999, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The extra yield investors demand to hold company debt rather than benchmark government securities is headed for the biggest monthly increase since October 2008, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market index shows.

Junk bonds issued in the U.S. have been especially hard hit, with spreads expanding 141 basis points this month to 702, contributing to a loss of 3.78 percent. Leveraged loans, or those rated speculative grade, have also tumbled. The S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index ended last week at 89.23 cents on the dollar, from 92.90 cents on April 26.

Question of Solvency

“This is a quintessential liquidity crisis,” said William Cunningham, head of credit strategies and fixed-income research at Boston-based State Street Corp.’s investment unit, which oversees almost $2 trillion.

I disagree. This is a return, and rightfully so, to questions of solvency. Many corporations were given a new lease on life in May of 2009 by once again securing funding at cheap levels.

Now, huge cracks are appearing in the corporate bond market. At least seven junk bond deals have been pulled. This environment is not good for equities.

JNK – Lehman High Yield Bond ETF

click on chart for sharper image

Is this another scare like we saw in January and February or is this the real deal? I think the latter, but I thought so in February as well.

Notice how the top in junk bonds coincided with the top in equities. I cautioned many


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SHOULD YOU SHORT THE TREASURY MARKET?

SHOULD YOU SHORT THE TREASURY MARKET?

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Good thoughts on the credit markets from this week’s episode of Wealth Track.  Nassim Taleb has described treasuries as a “no brainer” short position.  Marc Faber refers to treasuries as junk bonds.  Bond experts David Darst and Robert Kessler provide their outlooks for obtaining yield in a de-leveraging world:

Source: Wealth Track 


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Three Ring Currency Circus: China, Japan and the US

Three Ring Currency Circus: China, Japan and the US

Courtesy Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

elephants

So China’s gonna zig while Japan zags and the US, umm, lags.

As I documented in my earlier post (that I wrote at 4:30 in the morning while Sweet Pea was spitting up formula on my Ralph Lauren comforter), Japan is bent on weakening the Yen in an effort to recharge its export industry.  China, on the other hand, is beginning a tightening program to chill out the real estate speculators and curb inflation.

From the New York Times:

China’s central bank raised a key interest rate slightly on Thursday for the first time in nearly five months, in what economists interpreted as the beginning of a broader move to tighten monetary policy and forestall inflation.

As any economist will tell you, China is the world heavyweight champ when it comes to currency market manipulation intervention.  Through a process of issuing large amounts of renminbi to buy US dollars/ bonds, then issuing central bank bills to claw some of the excess renminbi back, China is able to keep their currency weak which stokes the competitiveness of its exports and preserves jobs.

My message here is a simple one:  We are watching the greatest three ring circus in experimental economics history.

In the left ring, Japan is in Yen debasement mode under the stewardship of their 6th Finance Minister in less than 2 years.  In the right ring, China is now attempting to cool off their wildly successful stimulus program with a tightening cycle.  And not to be left out, in center stage, Bearded Ben is trapped between a not-quite-so-successful monetary stimulus plan and a mongoloid recovery that has only triumphed thus far in the juicing up of commodities, stocks and junk bonds.

Central bankers as ringleader, metals and energy prices as the strong man, China as barely-tamed lion, Japanese stuffed in the clown car and the US taxpayer as the guy who cleans up after the elephants.

Ladies and gentlemen, please refrain from flash photography during the performance.

Read also:

Japan’s New Kamikaze Central Banker (TRB)

Chinese Decision on Rates Seen as ‘Turning Point’ (NYT)

 


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WSJ – Small Investors Pile into Emerging Markets, Junk Bonds, and Commodities

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WSJ – Small Investors Pile into Emerging Markets, Junk Bonds, and Commodities

crowded trade, lemmings, small investorsPosted by TraderMark at Fund My Mutual Fund

If you’ve been around these markets for a while you generally know by the time the retail investor is piling into a group, chasing huge scores – it’s generally time to run away (at the least) and for the 5% among us who short, begin to think seriously about betting against the small fry. It sounds cold, but this is just the way it tends to work … trust me, I used to be one of these people, so I learned the hard (read: expensive) way. As we read the piece below let us trust in the fact that none of these people were buying in early March, but most likely jumped in when it was "safe" a month or so later.

Contrast the lemmings running into "what’s hot" with what you’ve been reading here – about a month ago I was saying commodities is crowded and I would not want to be exposed highly there. People who heeded that thought process avoided the sand blasting that has gone on for 3 weeks running in this sector. While I do like these emerging markets for the long term, I think they are vulnerable here as well; some are beginning to roll over – Russia has already been in a "technical" bear market (down over 20% from peak). And I am saying the same thing I said in commodities a month ago, now for the latest darling – technology. It is crowded – everyone is hiding there. Beware.

I don’t really talk much bonds but while junk bonds (highest risk) has provided the most juice the past 3-4 months, its basically been a parallel to the stock market. The ‘worst of breed’ has run up the most as green shoots flower across the world. Just as with the green shoots themselves, I find the junk bond love way premature. This economy is stalled and I expect many more companies to suffer – so buying bonds of the worst seems not such a great intermediate term strategy. I’d be more interested


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Has the “Hard Money” Been Made?

A double-dip recession is coming; here’s why.  

Investment Grade Bonds Return 9.2%, Junk Returns 29%; Has the "Hard Money" Been Made?

Courtesy of Mish

As long as the corporate bond market is healthy there is going to be a bid on equities. And in the first half of 2009, junk bonds have been running.

Please consider Corporate Bonds Show Lehman Doesn’t Matter With 9.2% Return.

Nowhere is the recovery in financial markets more evident than in corporate bonds, where Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy is becoming a distant memory.

U.S. investment-grade company debt returned 9.2 percent in the first half of the year, outperforming Treasuries by 13.7 percentage points, the most on record, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. Corporate bonds also did better than the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of stocks, marking the first time since 2002 that the fixed-income securities outshined both Treasuries and equities.

Yields on investment-grade company securities fell to within 3.31 percentage points of Treasuries yesterday, the least since Sept. 10, according to Merrill’s U.S. Corporate Master Index. Spreads widened to a record 6.56 percentage points on Dec. 5, and the securities lost 6.8 percent in 2008, the worst year on record, as the shock to financial markets from Lehman’s collapse Sept. 15 froze credit markets and sparked a run on Treasuries that caused bill rates to fall below zero.

“Spreads on corporate debt were so out of whack coming into the year, implying default rates that indicated more than 20 percent of all speculative-grade companies would go bankrupt,” said Kevin Sherlock, co-head of loan and high-yield capital markets at Deutsche Bank in New York. “The risk appetite is far more aggressive now than it was three months ago. It’s about where we were last summer at pre-Lehman levels.”

The biggest returns came in the riskiest securities. High- yield, high-risk bonds gained 29 percent, or 34 percentage points more than Treasuries, Merrill Lynch indexes show.

While credit spreads are narrowing, defaults continue to rise. The U.S. speculative-grade default rate jumped to 8.1 percent in May, the highest since October 2002, and may reach 14.3 percent by the first quarter of 2010, according to S&P.

“The easy money has been made,” said Richard Lee, a managing director in the fixed-income trading department of closely held broker-dealer Wall Street Access in New York. “You could have


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ValueWalk

How To Find Your Best Investment Strategy - Not The One You Expect

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Are you always searching for a better or the absolute best investment strategy?

Superior investment performance can be attributed to some combination of 3 basic drivers

If so I have good and bad news for you.

It simply doesn’t exist

The bad news is – it doesn’t exist!

The good news is it doesn’t matter, let me explain.

Your best investment strategy

The best investment strategy you will ever find is not...



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Zero Hedge

Traders Scramble To "Explain" Sudden Nasdaq Swoon

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

After surging in early trading, the Nasdasq - together with various cryptocurrencies - suddenly slumped and dropped as much as 1% from its intraday highs two hours into trading. That's what traders could agree with; where they clearly disagreed, was on the reason for the swoon with everything from the velocity of last week’s rally, this morning’s economic data and the Supreme Court’s decision to hear arguments on the Trump administration’s travel ban and being cited according to Bloomberg....



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Phil's Favorites

The Dynamics of Depletion

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth.


Paul Klee Ghost of a Genius 1922

The Automatic Earth has written many articles on the topic of EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) through the years, there’s a whole chapter on it in the Automatic Earth Primer Guide 2017 that Nicole assembled recently, which contains 17 different articles.

Still, since EROEI is the most important energy issue there is at present, and not the price of oil or some new gas find or a set of windmills or solar panels or thorium, it can’t hurt to repeat it once again, in someone else’s words and from someone else ...



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Insider Scoop

The Market In 5 Minutes

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related SPY Baltic Intimidation Tactics: US Jet Buzzes Plane Carrying Russian Defense Minister; Russian Jet Intercepts US Spy Plane Insurance Providers Cozy Up To ETFs ...

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Biotech

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

We have a vaccine for six cancers; why are less than half of kids getting it?

Courtesy of Electra D. Paskett, The Ohio State University

Early in our careers, few of us imagined a vaccine could one day prevent cancer. Now there is a vaccine that keeps the risk of developing six Human Papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancers at bay, but adoption of it has been slow and surprising low.

Although it’s been available for more than a decade, as of 2014 only 40 percent of girls had received the full three doses of the vaccine, while only ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Buyer Beware

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Entrepreneurs have a new trick to raise money quickly, and it all takes place online, free from the constraints of banks and regulators. As Axios reports, since the beginning of 2017, 65 startups have raised $522 million using initial coin offerings — trading a digital coin (essentially an investment in their company) for a digital currency, like Bitcoin or Ether.

One recent example, as NYT reports, saw Bay Area coders earn $35 million in less than 30 seconds during an online fund-raising event...



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Chart School

Russell 2000 at Rising Support

Courtesy of Declan.

There wasn't much to say about today, but the one index which caught my attention was the Russell 2000. The index caught a bounce in demand at the rising trendline and also did enough to recover the 20-day MA. Traders looking for pullback opportunity could take a look at the Russell 2000. Stops on a loss of 1,397.


The Nasdaq is primed for a move to challenge 6,350. Today's doji marks indecision just below 6,250 but if it can push above this price level it would likely trigger a spate of short covering. Technicals hav...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 19th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Mapping The Market

Frontier laid off state Senate president after broadband vote it didn't like

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Speaking of FTR – not nice people…

Frontier laid off state Senate president after broadband vote it didn’t like

By Arstechnica.com

Broadband provider Frontier Communications recently laid off the West Virginia state Senate president after a vote the company didn't like—and yes, you read that correctly.

West Virginia does not have a full-time legislature, and state lawmakers can supplement their part-time government salaries ($20,000 a year,&...



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Promotions

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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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