Posts Tagged ‘Lehman-like action’



Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Caribbean Reef Sharks

One of the primary reasons for our move to sell equities in mid-January was the warning shot the CDS market was sending.  Specifically, we said:

As the problem of debt refuses to go away and in fact, quietly spreads, we’ve seen another slow development over the course of the last few weeks – problems in Greece appear to be worse than originally expected and credit default swaps are sending warning messages again.  The term structure in Greek CDS recently inverted as investors are now increasingly concerned of a default in the next few months.  This is something we saw in 2008 before the financial markets nearly collapsed.  That time the inversion was in Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch CDS.

As the problems in the banking sector unfolded in late Summer 2008 the sovereign debt of the big three developed nations began to skyrocket before reaching a crescendo in early 2009.  What’s alarming with the situation in Greece is the similarities in CDS price action.  The recent uptick could be serving as a warning flag of things to come in 2010 and 2011 when the problem of debt has potential to rear its ugly head again.  Barclays might not have been too far off when they said the probability of a crisis would grow in 2010.

Well, this situation has only worsened in recent weeks and the equity markets have dipped over 5% since our “must sell” signal.  Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank is reiterating the concern we expressed several weeks ago that this is looking increasingly similar to the action in the markets heading up to the Lehman bankruptcy:

“The danger for every risk asset beyond IG credit is that if higher quality assets see forced re-pricing then it surely has to impact the riskier end of markets. The situation is increasingly reminding us of August/September 2008 when the credit market was sending out a strong sell signal to the equity market. Failing a quick sovereign bail-out, the credit markets are sending out a similar sell signal.”

Reid goes on to note that the markets appear to be accelerating what the governments hoped they could heal with time.  In essence, we’ve put all our…
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Zero Hedge

Russian Naval Fleet Filmed Off British Coast, Followed "Every Inch Of The Way"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Two days ago we reported that a Russian aircraft carrier flotilla was spotted in international waters off the Norwegian coast on its way to Syria where it is expected to arrive in just under two weeks. NATO was not amused, and a diplomat quoted by Reuters said that Russia is "deploying all of the Northern fleet and much of the Baltic fleet in the largest surface deployment since the end of the Cold War," and added that "this is not...

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Does More Information = More Money?

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Does More Information = More Money? by Alexander Wetterling, Become A Better Investor

Information is a central concept in investing. It’s central in the sense that an investor’s informational advantage can be the sole reason he or she makes money in the market, and might even be able to do so continuously.

Whether you believe that there exist, skilled managers that can persistently beat the market or not, you most certainly will have learned that there are people making money from insider trading. Insider trading is about using an informational advantage to make money, and though it’s both unethical and illegal, we know that it happens.

Nobel laureate Eugen...

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Phil's Favorites

Welcome To Neocolonialism, Exploited Peasants!

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith, Of Two Minds

In my latest interview with Max Keiser, Max asked a question of fundamental importance: (I paraphrase, as the interview has not yet been posted): now that the current iteration of capitalism has occupied every corner of the globe, where can it expand to for its "growth"?

My answer: neocolonialism, my term for the financialized quasi-colonial exploitation of the home domestic population. I described this dynamic in The E.U., Neofeudalism and the Neocolonial-Financialization Model (May 24, 2012).

We all know how old-fashioned colonialism worked: the imperial power takes political and economic control of previously independent lands.


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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Crude Rally May Clinch Top Stock Market Status for Canada in ’16 (Bloomberg)

Gold’s best run since 2010 pushed Canadian equities to the top spot among developed-market stocks this year. Fifty dollar crude will give them an opportunity to stay there.

Would Cutting Corporate Tax Rates Really Grow the Economy? (The Atlantic)

One of the things Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump disagree most strongly about is how to stimulate the economy. Donald Trump has one idea that conservative economist...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Bio-Tech; In more trouble if this fails, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

At one point in time, actually for years, Bio-Tech (IBB) was a market leader. From the 2009 lows to 2015, IBB out gained the S&P by more than 250%. Since the summer of 2015, Bio Tech has remained a leader, a “downside leader!” IBB has lagged the S&P by over 35% in the past 15-months.

Is the downside leadership over for IBB? Below updates the pattern on IBB


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Members' Corner

The Orlando Massacre Part 3

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

A continuation of a Naybob of IT's Natterings from Part 1 and Part 2...

While many Christian churches expressed grief and offered free funeral services for the victims of the Orlando shooting, the fundamentalist Westboro Baptist Church held an anti-gay protest during the funeral of the victims.

But the Westboro Baptist Church's protest rally was blocked by about 200 people who formed a human barricade on the main street in downtown Orlando, ...

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Insider Scoop

Exclusive: Ecoark Looks To Tackle The $160 Billion Food Waste Problem

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The fresh food supply chain undergoes a ton of waste. The loss in fresh food nearly costs producers and retailers $160 billion in the US alone. Despite this huge sum, the market to cut down this waste has largely gone unaddressed by corporate America.

Ecoark Holdings Inc (OTC: EARK) is taking steps to address this market and it could ultimately be a win for several parties: the grower, the retailer and the c... more from Insider

Chart School

Neutral Day for Indices

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets were unable to build on premarket gains, but did manage to finish the day where they started.

The S&P closed with a narrow range doji, a doji which finished below Friday's bearish black candlestick. The pattern of the last five days is playing more in bears favour, but with support around 2,115 holding there is still a chance a broad swing low is in play; confirmation comes on a move above 2,160. Trading volume sided with bulls on a confirmed accumulation day.

The Nasdaq was able to push above Fri...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 17th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.


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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

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If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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