Different market environments call for different temperaments, and this tape calls for One Cool Customer. The cross-currents lately are absolutely cartoonish – back-to-back-to-back triple digit rallies while each morning we are treated to fresh evidence of Slouching Housing, Hidden Consumer.
A lot of pros were washed out at the bottom this month when the 8 or 10 month moving averages that they use as stops were violated. Right on cue, the S&P rallied 6% off those lows during July, almost out of spite. The frustration is palpable and people are getting heated.
What to make of it all? I don’t know about you, but I’m looking for cool heads and calm direction – so I’m reading a lot of Leigh Drogen lately on his Surfview Capital blog.
You may know Leigh from the StockTwits stream. He is in this market, not just discussing it. And Leigh Drogen is cooler than Lenny Kravitz in February.
Based on his writing, it appears that he’s back to playing his momentum faves and making mental room for the possibility that the tape is, in fact, getting "healthier"…
It’s hard to sit through pullbacks, but as Jesse Livermore said, the real money is made by sitting, not by coming and going. The last two days have been a tough chop fest where you really don’t want to be trading. I took off a decent amount of long exposure yesterday morning at the top, but not enough to keep me from looking at my book today and cringing, just a little. Even when you know what’s about to take place, and that your plan is to let it happen and buy into it, watching your P&L move against you is never fun. Today my second largest position, and what is a normal position size in $WPRT is down 10%, not fun. Other than that, everything is acting predictably soft, consolidating nice gains from the past week or so. We’re not playing for peanuts this time as has been the case the past three months. It’s time to make some real money as the market has become a bit healthier. Raise your stops along the way and buy the pullbacks.
Whenever sentiment and the direction of the market diverge so drastically as is the case now, the key is to stay cool. For smart, emotionless…
In Shenzhen's famous Huaqiangbei electronics shopping district, you won't need to stand in any lines or make an appointment for these smartwatches.
At 299 yuan—that's less than $50—you can pick up a smartwatch that looks quite similar to Apple's own creation, complete with replica Digital Crown and touch screen. Like the Cupertino original that went on sale today for seven times the price, the generic offering spotted in this bustling Chinese city features an activity tracker, chat apps, Web browser, and Bluetooth connectivity. A brief demo unveiled shortcomings in the browser with only the text loading on screen.
King Dollar has been on a role since last summer, up over 20% in less than a year. When looking back on the US$, the rally has been rare and nearly historic. Majority of the rally took place inside the steep rising channel above. Over the past month the US$ might have put in a double top. Over the past few days, the US$ has slipped a little below rising support at red arrow above.
The pre-market economic news was the release of the March Durable Goods, which had a strong headline number, but Core Capex posted its seventh consecutive decline and is down 4.0% year-over-year. The S&P 500 vacillated in the opening minutes and then trudged higher to its 0.38% intraday record high. The index then moved sideways most of the afternoon before settling for a 0.23% closing gain -- enough for a new all-time record close.
Today the yield on the 10-year Note closed at 1.93%, down three bps from the previous close but above the 1.87% close last Friday.
Here is a 15-minute chart of the week.
Here is a daily snapshot of SPY ETF, which gives a better sense of investor particiaption...
Here's an interesting argument by Felix Salmon, although I think he is taking two correct observations and mistakenly attributing a cause-and-effect relationship to them: Bitcoin is going nowhere because women are not involved.
More likely, in my opinion, women are not involved in bitcoin because bitcoin is going nowhere (and they know it). Or maybe, simply, bitcoin is going nowhere and women are not involved.
Nathaniel Popper’s new book, Digital Gold, is as close as you can get to being the definitive account of the history of Bitcoin. As its subtitle proclaims, the book tells the story of the “misfits” (the first generation of hacker-l...
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As we get into the heart of earnings season and anticipate the GDP report for Q1, the investor spotlight has been taken off the Federal Reserve and timing of its first interest rate hike, at least temporarily. Even though Q1 economic growth will undoubtedly look weak, the future remains bright for the U.S economy – even though many multinationals will struggle with top-line growth due to the strong dollar – and any near-term selloff resulting from weak economic or earnings news should be bought yet again in expectation of better results for the balance of the year. High sector correlations remain a concern, reflectin...
Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene
The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below.
Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets)
Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies)
Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...
In my last post (Part 1 of this article), I looked at alternative ETFs that could be used as hedges against the corrections that we have seen during that long 2 year bull run. Looking at the results, it seems that for short (less than a month) corrections, a VIX ETF like VXX could actually be a viable candidate to hedge or speculate on the way down. Another alternative ETF was TMF, a long Treasuries ETF which banks on the fact that when markets go down, money tends to pack into treasuries viewed as safe instruments. In some cases, TMF even outperformed the usual hedging instruments like leveraged ETFs. There could of course be other factors at play since some of 2014 corrections were related to geopolitical events which are certain...
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PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs! The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down! The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months. What could go wrong?
Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.
Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies. A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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