While it was Aristotle who said that "acting virtuous will make one virtuous" (and clearly Aristotle hasn't been to the same charity events/wealth orgies that I have, or he never would have said it), it is our modern Central Banking system that decrees that "acting like the economy is better will make the economy better."
Now, perhaps if they had spent $29,000,000,000,000 by giving 7Bn people $4,142.85 each – we WOULD have a better economy now – but that's not what happened at all, is it? Instead, 70,000 people and corporations (the top 0.0001%) got an average of $414M each while the other 99.9999% of us, especially the bottom 90% actually are now worse off than when the Central Banksters decided to meddle in our affairs in the first place.
The rich are indeed getting stunningly richer with the Forbes 400 (richest Americans) AVERAGING $800M gains in 2013 as the stock market (where most of their money is) rose over 30%. Again – AVERAGE gains of $800M per Billionaire! Once you get past #50 on the list (Google's Eric Schmidt with $8.3Bn), that's AT LEAST 10% of their total net worth added in a single year!
As I said in our recent trade review "Thank You Sir, MAY I Have Another", if they are just going to keep giving away money like this – we're going to just have to keep taking it (through our many bullish trade ideas) but, at some point, the music will stop and you'd BETTER be able to find a chair fast!
There's a very good reason the Corporate Media is constantly telling you how bad "class warfare" would be - BECAUSE THEY ARE ALREADY WINNING THE WAR AND YOU ARE NOT EVEN FIGHTING!!!
Like any good game of musical chairs, we have no idea when the music is going to stop, so we all have to keep dancing around like nothing is wrong until it does. As I pointed out yesterday, it's very easy to pay $150Bn for Amazon (at $327 per share) with money you just printed because…
DAN - Dana Holding Corporation – Bullish options are changing hands on Dana Holding Corp today, with shares in the name up as much as 3.5% on the day to a new 52-week high of $22.67. The auto parts maker this morning announced it has entered into a $200 million accelerated share repurchase agreement, after previously increasing its buyback program to $1 billion some six weeks prior. The most actively traded options contracts on DAN today are the Aug $22 strike calls, with volume topping 1,000 lots versus open interest of 252 contracts. Time and sales data suggests one trader purchased most of the calls at a premium of $0.30 apiece within the first few minutes of the opening bell this morning. Intraday gains in the price of the underlying shares has more than doubled the value of the position, lifting the asking price on the $22 calls up to $0.85 each as of 11:50 a.m. ET. Dana Holding Corp. is scheduled to participate in the J.P. Morgan Auto Conference in New York tomorrow morning.
LNKD - LinkedIn Corp. – Shares in LinkedIn are up sharply on Monday, trading up 3.0% during morning trading to a record high of $239.90, after the stock was raised to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ with a 12-month target price of $280.00 at Needham & Co. Trading traffic in LinkedIn options expiring in October suggests some strategists are positioning for shares to continue higher during the next couple of months. More than 600 of the Oct $280 calls changed hands this morning against open interest of 72 contracts. It looks like most of the calls were purchased, with some of the contracts picked up for as much as $3.10 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to profit at October expiration in the event…
PMTI - Palomar Medical Technologies, Inc. – Options on Palomar Medical Technologies are trading more actively than usual on Monday, with volume topping 1,200 lots in the early going versus average daily volume of around 30 contracts and compared to total open interest of 372 contracts. Traders appear to be positioning for shares in the maker of proprietary laser systems for hair removal to rally in the near term, with shares in the name up better than 3.2% this morning at a fresh 52-week high of $11.30. Palomar shares have increased 60% since mid-November 2012. The April $12.5 strike calls attracted the most volume during the first half of the trading session, with upwards of 960 lots in play versus open interest of two contracts. Time and sales data suggests most of the $12.5 strike calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.85 each. Call buyers stand ready to profit at expiration next month should shares in Palomar tack on another 18% to top the average breakeven price of $13.35.
LNKD - LinkedIn Corp. – Shares in LinkedIn are bucking the trend today, increasing as much as 2.2% to hit a fresh record high of $174.25 on Monday morning amid a tepid start to the trading week for U.S. stocks. Traders positioning for shares in the online professional network operator to continue to hit new highs during the next four sessions snapped up weekly calls on the stock today. Buyers stepped in the purchase the Mar. 08 ’13 $175 and $180 strike calls in the early going this morning, paying average premiums of $2.20 and $0.96 apiece for the contracts. Traders long the upside calls may profit at expiration this week in the event that LNKD shares rally another 1.7% and 3.9% to surpass average breakeven prices of $177.20 and $180.96, respectively. Meanwhile, sellers of the Mar. 08 ’13 $175 strike put options are also positioned to benefit from a short-term bullish view on LNKD should shares extend gains this week.…
LNKD - LinkedIn Corp. – Shares in the online professional networking company are soaring today, up as much as 7.0% to touch a record-high of $168.82 during the first half of the trading session on positive analyst comments. The price target on LinkedIn was raised to $200.00 from $160.00 at Evercore this morning, and the stock was rated new ‘Buy’ with a 12-month target price of $195.00 at Wunderlich Securities. LNKD shares, up nearly 40% in the past two weeks alone, have rallied more than 95% since this time last year. Options traders positioning for shares in the name to move higher this week snapped up in- and out-of-the-money weekly calls on the stock today. Traders looked to the Mar. 01 ’13 $160, $165 and $170 strikes, driving volume at each strike well above open interest levels. The $165 and $170 strike calls are the most active by volume, with upwards of 2,300 contracts in play at each as of 11:25 a.m. ET. Much of the volume appears to have been purchased at average premiums of $1.98 and $1.10 apiece, respectively. Meanwhile, nearly 1,000 call options have changed hands at the higher Mar. 01 ’13 $175 strike versus open interest of 250 contracts. Trading in the $175 calls is mixed, with roughly equal numbers of contracts purchased and sold. Buyers of around 350 of the $175 strike calls paid an average premium of $0.34 apiece in the early going, and may profit at expiration this week should shares in LNKD rally another 4.0% over today’s record high of $168.82 to surpass the average breakeven point at $175.34.
DLTR - Dollar Tree, Inc. – Upside calls purchased on Tuesday ahead of Dollar Tree’s fourth-quarter earnings report this morning landed one or more traders substantial overnight paper profits, with shares in Dollar Tree spiking nearly 14% to an intraday high of $46.71 on Wednesday morning. The largest increase in open interest on Dollar Tree overnight was in the Mar. $42.5 strike calls; a review…
MCP - Molycorp, Inc. – Shares in rare earth metals mining company, Molycorp, Inc., are reeling Thursday morning after the Greenwood Village, Colorado-based company missed its 2012 production target and lowered its 2013 revenue and cash estimates. The stock is currently down 24% on the day to stand at $8.20 as of 11:00 a.m. ET. Analysts at JPMorgan cut their price target on the stock to $5.00 from $8.00 today. Options traders positioning for shares to weaken further by the end of this week initiated bearish plays in weekly put contracts. Put volume is on the rise at the Jan 11 ’13 $9.0, $8.5 and $8.0 striking prices this morning. Traders appear to have purchased around 1,100 in-the-money puts at the $9.0 strike, and another 2,350 lots at the $8.5 strike in the early going. The $8.0 strike puts have traded upwards of 2,200 times thus far today versus zero previously opened positions, with the bulk of the contracts purchased for an average premium of $0.13 apiece. Traders long the Jan. 11 ’13 $8.0 strike puts stand ready to profit at expiration this week should Molycorp’s shares decline another 4% from the current price of $8.20 to breach the average breakeven point at $7.87. MCP shares, down more than 70% since January 2012, last traded below $7.87 on November 23rd.
IACI - InterActiveCorp – Options activity on media and Internet company, InterActiveCorp, this morning indicates one trader is preparing for shares in the name to potentially decline in the near term, perhaps following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report in February. Shares in the operator of online dating websites, match.com and okcupid, are down more than 3% today at $43.99 as of 11:15 a.m. in New York. The single-largest transaction in IACI options this morning was the purchase of 1,500-lot Feb. $40/$45 put spread for a net premium of $1.55 each. The bearish spread makes money if shares in InterActiveCorp slip 1.2% from the current level to trade below the breakeven price of $43.45. Maximum potential profits of $3.45 are available…
LNKD - LinkedIn Corp. – Shares in the professional social-networking site operator jumped 6% to a three-month high of $113.89 in the first half of the trading session after the Internet stock was raised to 'buy' from 'hold' with a share price target of $142.00 at Jefferies. Traders snapping up weekly calls on the stock this morning appear to be climbing aboard the bullish-bandwagon, positioning for additional near-term gains in the price of the underlying shares in the back half of this week. Volume in the weekly contracts is heaviest at the Sep. 07 '12 $115 strike where upwards of 3,100 calls changed hands against open interest of 543 positions. It looks like most of the $115 calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.47 apiece, thus preparing buyers to profit at expiration in the event LNKD shares exceed the average breakeven price of $115.47. Upside calls are also in play at the Sep. 07 '12 $120 strike, with roughly 460 of the contracts purchased this morning for an average premium of $0.15 each. Some bullish positions initiated yesterday and Friday are already seeing substantial paper profits given the big upside move in the shares today. Upside call buyers who picked up around 700 of the Sep. 07 '12 $110 strike call during the prior two trading sessions paid between $0.60 and $0.75 apiece for most of the contracts. Premium on the $110 weekly calls has increased five-fold since then from roughly $0.75 each on Tuesday to $4.10 per contract as of 12:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
MW - The Men’s Wearhouse, Inc. – Options on men’s clothing retailer, Men’s Wearhouse, are active ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report after the close this afternoon. Shares in the name are up 0.90% at $31.80 as of 12:35 p.m. ET, and at least one strategist is positioning for further gains in the share price in the near term. The…
You panic out of positions at rock bottom prices and you'll sit there like a deer in the headlights when we bounce back until we're already too high again and then you'll chase the top – only becoming fully invested after we've already exited. Don't blame me – I try to warn you, but no one listens to me.
This morning the markets are in full panic more and that's fine with us as not only are we still "Cashy and Cautious" but what did we tell you Wednesday morning? "TZA July $19/25 bull call spread at $1.50, selling $18 puts for $1.05 for net .45" along with EDZ at $17.23 and SQQQ at $51.80. SQQQ is at $53.79 (up 3.8%) and EDZ is $17.90 (up 3.9% and the TZA hedge is already at net .80, which is up 77% in just two days (so far) – now that's a hedge! When you have your hedges in place, THEN you can bottom fish with impunity and boy is the fishing good out there!
Today we get our Non-Farm Payroll numbers and there's a rumor out there that it's a big miss at 120,000 or lower. CNBC has been pretty much reporting it as a fact all morning and Europe is freaking out for that and many other reasons so I had occasion to look back at last month's NFP report, where we predicted it would be a miss with the the title: "The Blow Jobs Deal to the Market Could be Huge." That was 10% ago on our indexes are back to testing last week's lows, where we began to get bullish with our Twice in a Lifetime List of stocks that are back at their 2009 panic lows which we still like enough to sell puts in (giving us an additional 15-20% discount on initial entry).
That post capped off a week of bearish picks as we followed through with our plan to cash out into the April rally – it's those bearish profits we're now GAMBLING with as we bottom fish but, as noted above – we're hedging our bullish bets because there's no limit to how badly investors can freak out in the stock market – CASH remains KING!
A quick review of the week leading up to the last NFP report is a nice view of…
LNKD - LinkedIn Corp. – Activity in far out-of-the-money put options on the social networking site for professionals suggests some traders fear the price of the underlying could drop substantially from current levels. Shares in LNKD closed last week at $117.31, up nearly 80.0% year-to-date at the highest closing price since the IPO, following the release of better-than-expect first-quarter earnings. However, near-term bearish positions initiated this morning look for declines in the near term, while longer-term put purchases paint a far gloomier picture for the shares during the next few months. LinkedIn’s shares are off their lows of the session, but remain firmly in the red, down 4.7% at $106.24 as of 12:25 p.m. in New York. Weekly put buyers snapped up puts at the May $100 and $95 strikes, shelling out an average premium of $1.24 and $0.75, respectively, for more than 500 contracts at each strike. Traders may profit at the end of the week if shares in LinkedIn continue to sink. Meanwhile, the purchase of more than 1,650 puts at the July $70 strike for an average premium of $1.22 apiece look for shares to plunge more than 35.0% this summer. Traders long the $70 strike puts make money if shares in LNKD settle below the effective breakeven price of $68.78 at July expiration.
XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Retail stocks may continue to sell off, by the looks of massive stakes taken in XRT put options this morning. Shares in the equal-weighted retail ETF are down 1.5% at $59.45 this afternoon as stocks across the board sink. The two largest trades in XRT options today are in the May $56 put, with a total of 55,000 contracts purchased in two blocks at a premium of $0.35…
DJX - 1/100 of the Dow Jones Industrial Average – A massive vega trade initiated in the DJX today sent off ripples across major indices and single-stock names as market makers scrambled to hedge their sales of volatility that occurred due to the trade. The purchase of 30,000 Dec. 2014 $135 calls on the DJX, delta-hedged by a June 2014 $132 collar, is a pure volatility play that makes money if markets grow increasingly choppy going forward. Signs Europe’s crises may be coming to the fore once again could play a role in rising market volatility, which U.S. equities have largely been able to cast aside during the first quarter given positive domestic economic data and strong corporate earnings. The VIX has remained below 25 all year, passing much of its time just above or below the 17-level. For an investor anticipating rough seas up ahead, multi-year lows for the fear index provide an opportunity to lock in vega while it’s relatively cheap rather than wait for Nostradamus’ Armageddon, or more likely, continued turmoil across the pond, to blow volatility through the roof.
LNKD - LinkedIn Corp. – Shares in the social networking site for professionals are up 0.25% this afternoon to stand at $106.65 ahead of the Company’s first-quarter earnings report after the final bell today. Trading traffic in LinkedIn weekly calls suggests some traders are positioning for shares in the name to extend gains following the report. Notable bullish interest is building in the May 04 ’12 $115 strike options where more than 2,000 calls changed hands against open interest of 878 contracts by 12:15 pm in New York. It looks like most of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $3.07 apiece, thus positioning traders to profit…
LULU - Lululemon Athletic, Inc. – Lululemon’s shares are in rally-mode today, ahead of the athletic apparel retailer’s fourth-quarter earnings report Thursday morning. The stock trades higher by 1.45% to stand at $73.94 in early-afternoon trade, and it looks like some traders are using LULU options to taking pre-earnings report positions that benefit from further upside moves in the price of the underlying. One strategist appears to have initiated a bullish butterfly spread, buying around 3,000 calls at the April $75 and $85 strikes, and selling 6,000 calls at the April $80 strike, all for a net premium outlay of $0.92 per contract. The parameters of the spread indicate potential losses, and potential gains, are limited; maximum possible losses are capped at $0.92 per contract. The trader may profit at expiration in the event that Lululemon’s shares rally 2.7% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $75.92, with maximum possible profits of $4.08 per contract available given an 8.2% move higher in the shares to $80.00. It looks like the butterfly spread is not the only bullish strategy calling for LULU’s shares to head higher. Last Friday, a large block of 12,551 April $80 strike calls were purchased for a premium of $1.60 each. While both transactions look for Lululemon’s shares to rally to fresh record highs, one earns maximum possible gains if shares settle at $80.00, while the other looks for shares to rally above $81.60 by expiration next month. More than 33,500 option contracts have changed hands on LULU just before 12:30 p.m. in New York.
ARIA - ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc. – Options on biotechnology company, ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, are more active than usual today following Tuesday’s reported 13-to-1 ruling by the FDA’s Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee against the use ridaforolimus. The…
Rather than buying equity interests in buildings, TIAA-CREF and KTCU are seeking to invest in mortgages backed by office towers, retail properties, warehouses and apartments in major U.S. cities. The venture between the two companies, which manage teachers’ savings in their respective countries, is 51 percent owned by TIAA-CREF and 49 percent held by Seoul-based KTCU.
“You invest in a huge office tower in New York because you want a saf...
Suppose you had the technical ability and raw materials to print up counterfeit dollars, euros or yen that were identical to the real things. Assume you could spend them as fast as you could create them with no fear of any repercussions.
Would you prudently print up only as much fresh currency as you needed for your current lifestyle? Would you create just a bit more than that to help relatives or those in need?
It is most likely you’d have your printing press running 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Becoming the richest person in the world would confer great power upon you.
You could rationalize this action because you plan to use the money for good purposes. Imagine the warm feeling you’d get by giving every person in America one million do...
U.S tight oil production from shale plays will fall more quickly than most assume.
Why? High decline rates from shale reservoirs is given. The more interesting reasons are the compounding effects of pad drilling on rig count and poorer average well performance with time.
Rig productivity has increased but average well productivity has decreased. Every rig used in pad drilling has approximately three times the impact on the daily production rate as a rig did before pad drilling. At the same time, average well productivity has decreased by about one-third.
This means that production rates will fall at a much higher rate today than during previous periods of falling rig counts.
Most shale wells today are drilled from pads. One rig drills many wells...
Today's end-of-day losses were disguised by the relatively light declines at the close. Markets opened strong, but were unable to maintain premarket strength. The consolidations in place since the 'Santa Rally' are holding on, but markets can ill afford additional losses from here.
The S&P finished on the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 'Santa Rally'. Aggressive longs may view this as a head-and-shoulder reversal; if this pr-oves to be the case then markets have to rally from the cash open. The S&P is a case in point.
The Nasdaq experienced a very wide day; opening above its 20-day and 50-day MA, but finishing well below these moving averages, and on...
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Last week, the S&P 500 put an end to its streak of weekly losses, despite giving back some gains on Friday. Thursday provided the big catalyst, with the ECB’s announcement of its bold new monetary stimulus plan. Investors were cheered and soothed for the moment. And U.S. fundamentals still look strong. But with Greece trying to turn back time, with volatility elevated (and likely to continue as such), and with the technical situation still dicey, the near term outlook is still worrisome.
In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart...
So as I was saying yesterday (Bitcoin: The Biggest Clown Show In History?), Bitcoin has several obstacles on the path to potential success as an alternative currency. But I forgot to mention hacking and theft at Bitcoin exchanges and other technical problems. This is related to the lack of government backing and the fact that the value of Bitcoins is based entirely on confidence.
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PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs! The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down! The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months. What could go wrong?
Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.
Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies. A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...
Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
Note: The material presented in this commentary is provided for
informational purposes only and is based upon information that is
considered to be reliable. However, neither PSW Investments, LLC d/b/a PhilStockWorld (PSW)
nor its affiliates
warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither PSW nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance, including the tracking of virtual trades and portfolios for educational purposes, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Neither Phil, Optrader, or anyone related to PSW is a registered financial adviser and they may hold positions in the stocks mentioned, which may change at any time without notice. Do not buy or sell based on anything that is written here, the risk of loss in trading is great.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only intended at the moment of their issue as conditions quickly change. The information contained herein does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation to you of any particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. Before investing, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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