Posts Tagged ‘loan losses’

How much money is Wells Fargo really making?

How much money is Wells Fargo really making?

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

Wells FargoThe positive earnings announcement by Wells Fargo on Wednesday was marred by a sell recommendation from Dick Bove and a lot of chatter about credit writedowns and mortgage servicing rights (MSRs). I wanted to add a few words about the report, MSRs, and bank stocks more generally.

First of all, this has been a very good quarter for bank earnings. Many of the big names globally have surprised to the upside. this includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, SEB in Sweden, Credit Suisse in Switzerland and on down the line. As one would expect, most banks are profiting from record low interest rates.

The question for the big banks is whether the huge writedowns they are still taking and the run-up in their stock prices since march limits any upside in valuation. For smaller banks, we should expect weaker results as they are more leveraged to the sectors of the economy like commercial real estate and construction loans which are still suffering.  Goldman and Morgan Stanley should do relatively better as they are really broker-dealers and both investment banking and sales & trading are doing well right now. On the whole, I have said I think upside is limited for the sector, but downside is vast. Hence I am bearish on bank stocks.

Let’s look at Wells Fargo (WFC) as an example of what is happening.

Wells reports record profits

Wells reported net income of $32 billion, a robust operating pre-tax profit of $10.8 billion, and record net income of $3.2 billion. Sounds wonderful. What’s not to like?  That was bank analysts Dick Bove’s initial impression as well. Live on-air at CNBC, he said Wells Fargo “is proving itself to be a standout.”


But, once Bove got a peek under the hood and started to crunch the numbers at Wells, he was significantly less impressed – so much so that he issued a sell rating literally nine hours later. And he took a lot of flak for this about-face.

The Wall Street Journal’s Market Beat reports:

Prominent banking analyst Dick Bove, who caused a stir Wednesday with seemingly contradictory remarks on Wells Fargo, has decided he’ll no longer provide immediate earnings commentary on air.

“I’m not


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One Sixth Of All Construction Loans In Trouble

One Sixth Of All Construction Loans In Trouble

construction loansCourtesy of Mish

The New York Times has an interesting article about construction loans that Inquiring minds will want to read. Please consider Construction Loans Falter, a Bad Omen for Banks.

Reports filed by banks with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation indicate that at the end of June about one-sixth of all construction loans were in trouble. With more than half a trillion dollars in such loans outstanding, that represents a source of major losses for banks.

Construction loans were highly attractive in recent years for many banks, particularly smaller ones without a national presence. One reason was that other types of loans were not easy to make. A handful of big banks came to dominate credit card loans, for example, and corporate loans were often turned into securities.

Construction loans, however, needed local expertise and were not easy to standardize. In a booming real estate market, there were few losses on such loans.

It is in commercial real estate construction — be it stores or office buildings — that the pain seems likely to rise. At the end of June, $291 billion in such loans was outstanding, down only a few billion from the peak reached earlier this year.

“On the commercial side,” said Matthew Anderson, a partner in Foresight Analytics, a research firm based in Oakland, Calif., “I think we are fairly early in the down cycle.”

Foresight estimates that 10.4 percent of commercial construction loans are troubled, but expects that to increase as the year goes on.

Construction Loans Problems By Type

Local Expertise? What Local Expertise?

One has to laugh at the statement "Construction loans, however, needed local expertise".

In regards to "local", Pray tell what did Chicago-based Corus bank know about condo construction in Florida, California, and Georgia?

Indeed, what expertise was displayed by anyone, anywhere in regards to construction loans?

How Bad An Omen?

Just how bad an omen this is for banks depends on whether or not the problem is getting worse (it is), and how much banks have allocated in loan loss provisions.

In regards to loan loss provisions, here are a few pertinent charts from How Overpriced Is The S&P 500?

Assets at banks whose ALLL exceeds Nonperforming loans

Banks with Total Assets from $1B to $10B where


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China Trying to Talk Its Way Out of a Bubble

China Trying to Talk Its Way Out of a Bubble

China bubble Courtesy of Ben the Financial Ninja

FN: The Chinese government has finally caught on to the fact that they’ve created a bubble and are trying to "talk it down". As long as the central bank and the rest of the banks continue to provide liquidity, Wen Jiabao is going to be as successful as Alan Greenspan was when he warned of "irrational exuberance" while having his foot placed firmly on the monetary accelerator.

China Stocks Decline as Wen Says Economy Faces ‘Uncertainties’: "Chinese stocks, the world’s worst performers this month, extended declines after Premier Wen Jiabao said the economy faces many “uncertainties” and China Construction Bank Corp. warned of asset bubbles."

Asian Stocks Fall on Lower China Earnings, U.S. Credit Concern: "Asian stocks dropped, led by mining and finance companies on lower profit at Chinese companies and amid speculation loan losses in the U.S. will increase."

 


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Zero Hedge

Is The Fed At Risk Of Choking The Market?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Secular Investor.

Everybody was looking forward to hear what Janet Yellen had to say last week, as people were waiting for a cue about what the Federal Reserve might do next month and later this year. Will the Fed keep the interest rates stable? Or will we indeed see three additional rate hikes to push the benchmark interest rate towards 1.25%?

It’s not a secret th...



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Phil's Favorites

Miami Condo Boom Ends: Sellers Find Few Buyers, Inventory Soars

Courtesy of Mish.

Thanks to cheap money and an influx of foreign buyers, Florida had its second condo boom in a decade.

And once again, that boom has turned to bust. Speculators seek to unload condos but find few buyers.

Please consider Miami’s Condo Frenzy Ends With Inventory Piling Up in New Towers.

Miami’s crop of new condo towers, built with big deposits from Latin American buyers and lots of marketing glitz, are opening with many owners heading for the exits.

A third of the units in some newly built high-rises are back on the market, though most are listed for more than their owners paid in the pre-construction ...



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ValueWalk

Brian Bares on His Favorite Investment Books and Resources

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Brian Bares on His Favorite Investment Books and Resources

Here are some books he recommends

Berkshire Hathaway letters 

...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The side effects of negative interest rates are 'fanning out across the globe' (Business Insider)

The side effects of Negative Interest Rate Policies in Europe and Japan — what we’ve come to call the NIRP absurdity — are becoming numerous and legendary, and they’re fanning out across the globe, far beyond the NIRP countries.

Bond Traders Say Don't Count Out June Hike After Yellen Remarks (Bloomberg)

...

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Chart School

World Markets Weekend Update: The Global Rally Accelerates

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains over the past week, up from five the week before, and the average of the eight was an impressive 2.60%. India's SENSEX was the outstanding out performer with a 5.34% surge, and three indexes, France's CAC 40, the Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Germany's DAXK closed the week with gains in the mid-three percents. China's Shanghai was the sole loser with its fractional 0.16% decline. Japan's Nikkei had the second worse performance with a modest gain of 0.59%. Incidentally, the Nikkei about 4% below its late January close when the Bank of Japan adopted its negative interest rate policy.

A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks

The tables below provide a concise overvi...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Mining Stocks- Most dangerous time to own them in years?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The rally in mining stocks since the first of the year has been very impressive.

The rally has taken Gold Miners ETF GDX up to test the 23% retracement of the collapse over the past 5-years. At the same time it is hitting the 23% level, two other resistance lines are being put to a test, with momentum at the highest levels in the past 5-years.

Joe Friday Just The Facts...



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Insider Scoop

Graham Media Group To Buy WCWJ, CW affiliate In Jacksonville, NBC Affiliate in Roanoke

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Graham Media Group, Inc., a Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC) subsidiary, said it struck a deal with Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and Media General, Inc. to purchase WCWJ, a CW affiliate television station in Jacksonville, Florida and WSLS, an NBC affiliate television station in Roanoke, Virginia for $60 million in cash and the assumption of certain liabilities.

The agreement to acquire Nextar Broadcasting included pension obligations. Graham Media Group, Inc. would continue to operate both stations under their current network affiliations.

Graham Media said the acquisition is subject to approval by the FCC, other regulatory appr...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 23rd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

The Biggest Bitcoin Arbitrage Ever?

Courtesy of Chris at CapitalistExploits

Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?

Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.

I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.

I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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